us presidential primary & caucus...
TRANSCRIPT
Erin Vilardi
Creator of Vote, Run, LeadTM
civic engagement program
US Presidential
Primary & Caucus System
What are Primaries and Caucuses?What are Primaries and Caucuses?What are Primaries and Caucuses?What are Primaries and Caucuses?
For the Party, By the PartyFor the Party, By the PartyFor the Party, By the PartyFor the Party, By the Party
1. Are Indirect Elections.
2. Governed by individual Parties, not government,
and vary state-by-state.
3. Can be Open or Closed to certain voters.
4. The process to determine party nominees by
electing Delegates.
5. Culminate in Conventions.
6. Not found in the United States Constitution.
Primaries and Caucuses are both Primaries and Caucuses are both Primaries and Caucuses are both Primaries and Caucuses are both
Indirect ElectionsIndirect ElectionsIndirect ElectionsIndirect Elections
Delegate State PartyRepublican National
Convention
Final Step:
Pledges Votes/Delegates to Candidate!
Step 5: State Delegates Selected.
Step 6: State Delegation Sent to National Convention.
Step 3:Delegate from my county go to State Convention!
Step 4:Urges State Party to vote for ourcandidate by electing State Delegates.
Step1:Registered Republican Voter
Step 2: Vote in Primary
vs. Direct Election(1:1)vs. Direct Election(1:1)vs. Direct Election(1:1)vs. Direct Election(1:1)
•My Vote tallied in my district.•Winner is Elected by Popular Vote.
What is a Caucus?What is a Caucus?What is a Caucus?What is a Caucus? � Open Meeting & Forum.
� For Party Faithful.
� Candidates & surrogates
“campaign” for votes.
� Highly participatory.
� Rewards Retail Politics, face-
to-face campaigning and
solid organization.
Leota Kelly of Wildwood votes yea to accept proposed procedural rules for the
Missouri caucus meeting on Saturday, March 17, 2012.
Photo by Christian Gooden
So what is a Primary then?So what is a Primary then?So what is a Primary then?So what is a Primary then?
� Vote by Private Ballot Box
� Direct vote for Delegate or
Candidate.
� A statewide process of
selecting candidates and
delegates.
� Most often closed or semi-
closed to insure party
values well-represented.
Who is allowed to vote in the primary?Who is allowed to vote in the primary?Who is allowed to vote in the primary?Who is allowed to vote in the primary?
Open Primary: Any person registered or unregistered with a party can vote in one party’s primary.
Closed Primary:Voter must be registered with that party to vote in that party’s primary only.
Why Do Primaries and Caucuses
Matter?
�Local Engagement
�Determine Party Platform at Local, State and National level
�Cultivate New Ideas
� Increase # of registered party members
Primary and Caucus Rules Primary and Caucus Rules Primary and Caucus Rules Primary and Caucus Rules
Delegate Allocation**Delegate Allocation**Delegate Allocation**Delegate Allocation**
� Republicans and Democrats have different rules.
� Republicans Delegate Total 2,286 (August 27th)
� Needs 1144 to win!
� Democrats Delegate Total = upwards of 5,000
� 2012 Primary cycle 1ST Election to be affected by
Supreme Court ruling: Citizens United v. Federal
Election Commission.
� Creates “Super PACs” with unrivaled resources!
The Republican CandidatesThe Republican CandidatesThe Republican CandidatesThe Republican Candidates
Rick Santorum
Mitt Romney
Ron Paul
Newt Gingrich
Republican Delegates by State
Proportional v. Winner Take AllProportional v. Winner Take AllProportional v. Winner Take AllProportional v. Winner Take All
� Proportional RepresentationEach candidate in race gets % of delegates = % of votes.
� Winner-Take-AllIf any one candidate gets a simple majority of votes, they receive 100% of delegates.
� Threshold TestSome party rules require candidates to receive at least 15% of vote to be counted as viable.
� Run OffWhen no one candidates receives a majority, only two highest vote getters compete.
Counties in United StatesCounties in United StatesCounties in United StatesCounties in United States
ConventionsConventionsConventionsConventions
� Narrow the delegate selection process from local to state, then state
to national.
� National Presidential Conventions now more formal and
ceremonious, less brokering of power.
� States vote in rounds and pledege their votes to candidates.
� Candidates negotiate delegates for issues in the party platform.
� Brokered Convention: where one candidate does not get a majority
on 1st round of voting; voters free to change preference.
County Caucuses A,B,&C
County Caucuses E,F,&G
County Caucus H,I,&J
After the Convnetions: Now what?After the Convnetions: Now what?After the Convnetions: Now what?After the Convnetions: Now what?� August to November:
Head to head race between the nominees from both parties until the first Tuesday, after the first Monday, in November.
� November: Popular vote tallied and reported.
� December: Electoral College elects the President, representing each state.
First in the nation non-binding caucus in 1,774 precincts.
Record high turnout in 2012.
99 Counties. Thus 99 County Conventions.
2,500 Delegates go to District and State Convention, June 16th.
28 Delegates from the District & State to National Convention.
•3 RNC
•12 At Large
•13 CD (Congressional)
All 28 delegates go to National Convention Unbound but usually follow results!
Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum is joined
by his wife Karen as he waves to supporters at his Iowa caucus victory party Tuesday,
Jan. 3, 2012, in Johnston, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
New Hampshire: New Hampshire: New Hampshire: New Hampshire:
First in the Nation PrimaryFirst in the Nation PrimaryFirst in the Nation PrimaryFirst in the Nation Primary
33 Republican Candidates filed to be on the ballot in New Hampshire!
Proportional Representation
12 Delegates are Bound to Primary Results.
� Semi-Open Voting: Undeclared voters – those who have registered to vote as neither a Democrat nor Republican – are free to vote in either party’s primary. The voter must officially join a party before casting a vote, but he or she can switch their affiliation back to “undeclared”immediately following voting.
� 10% Threshold – new in 2012, NH Republicans instituted a 10% threshold.
This week! April 3This week! April 3This week! April 3This week! April 3rdrdrdrd
� This week 3 states vote: Wisconsin, DC and Maryland.
� All 3 are Winner-Take-All!
State delegation
State RNC AL CD Total Contest type
Maryland 0 13 24 37 Primary (closed)
Washington, D.C. 3 16 0 19 Primary (closed)
Wisconsin 0 18 24 42 Primary (open)
WhatWhatWhatWhat’’’’s at Stake in Wisconsin?s at Stake in Wisconsin?s at Stake in Wisconsin?s at Stake in Wisconsin?
� 42 Delegates could put Santorum back in the race.
� But what if Wisconsin was set up like proportional representation?
� Let’s see! Group Simulation. Winner Take All v. Proportional Representation
The CandidatesThe CandidatesThe CandidatesThe Candidates
LetLetLetLet’’’’s Caucus and Primary!!s Caucus and Primary!!s Caucus and Primary!!s Caucus and Primary!!
Simulation: Wisconsin PrimarySimulation: Wisconsin PrimarySimulation: Wisconsin PrimarySimulation: Wisconsin PrimaryWinner Take All v. Proportional RepresentationWinner Take All v. Proportional RepresentationWinner Take All v. Proportional RepresentationWinner Take All v. Proportional Representation
Newt Gingrich-Former Congressman in 1990s. -- Conservative
Ron Paul-Congressman from Texas
-- Libertarian, Independent views
Mitt Romney-Successful Businessman-- Mormon--- Ran in 2008
Rick Santorum-Traditionally Conservative -- Catholic-- Former Senator
Primary Simulation: GuidelinesPrimary Simulation: GuidelinesPrimary Simulation: GuidelinesPrimary Simulation: Guidelines
1) Each person votes for candidate of choice via secret ballot.
2) Votes are tallied and candidates will receive same % of delegates as they did votes. • Threshold of 15%
3) Votes are tallied by Winner-Take-All4) Review Differences – what is your preference?
Simulation 3: Caucus SimulationSimulation 3: Caucus SimulationSimulation 3: Caucus SimulationSimulation 3: Caucus Simulation
Proportional RepresentationProportional RepresentationProportional RepresentationProportional Representation
1) Please select one volunteer to represent each candidate. You are running to be a delegate who is pledged to your candidate.
2) Delegates proportions are bound by the # of votes received. 3) Everyone else is Republican voter.4) Each volunteer delegate gets 1 minute to “stump” (make a speech) about
their candidate.5) After the speech, voters will go around and hear from each candiate for 5
minutes. 6) After 5 minutes, voters must choose a candidate by lining up behind them.7) We will have a 10% Threshold.8) If your candidate does not get 10% of the votes, you can join together
with another candidate (to try to get to 10%) or abstain. If you abstain, your vote is not counted.
Process Matters!Process Matters!Process Matters!Process Matters!
� What difference did the process of voting make?
� Imagine if we had a more complex system: that we only represented one county and that we then had to conduct this process several more times.
� Do you prefer a primary or caucus system? Winner-take-all or proportional representation?
� What do you think about our system?
The Electoral CollegeThe Electoral CollegeThe Electoral CollegeThe Electoral College
•The Electors select the next President of the United States.
• The Popular Vote DOES NOT elect the President.
• Delegates select the party’s presidential nominee only.
•Governed by rules in the US Constitution to mitigate Majority Rule.
•Electors are chosen by State and based on population size.
•Obliged to vote Winner-Take-All in alignment with states Popular Vote (except 2 states)
Types of Delegates
� Pledged/ Bound
Legally and/or morally obligated to vote for stated candidate.
� Unpledged / Unbound
Not legally pledged to vote for any one candidate. Can “vote their
conscience” at conventions after 1st round of voting.
� At-Large Delegates
Part of state delegation but not elected by voters of the party. Can be
pledged or unpledged. Chosen by rules or party leadership.
� Super Delegates
Often unpledged delegate whose status is attained by their standing
in the party. Present at National Conventions.
Going for Delegates: Ron PaulGoing for Delegates: Ron PaulGoing for Delegates: Ron PaulGoing for Delegates: Ron Paul
� Texas Republican Congressman with a fierce libertarian streak, has polled low nationally but picks up delegates thanks to scattered successes in states, like Missouri, using the caucus system.
The AntiThe AntiThe AntiThe Anti----Romney: Rick SantorumRomney: Rick SantorumRomney: Rick SantorumRomney: Rick Santorum
� Catholic conservative and former Senator
from Pennsylvania, portrays himself as the
“true conservative”.
� Wins in Iowa and in Southern States
pushed him ahead, but his delegate counts
remains far behind Romney.
� 39 page Delegate Strategy Memo by Red,
White and Blue PAC provides a long-shot
way to block Romney from 1144 delegates
needed.
� Hoping for a brokered convention in which
delegates can “vote their conscience” in
second round voting.
The The The The OtherOtherOtherOther AntiAntiAntiAnti----Romney: Romney: Romney: Romney:
Newt GingrichNewt GingrichNewt GingrichNewt Gingrich� With limited resources and
low numbers in the polls, Newt Gingrich is looking less and less “presidential”.
� Pundits wondering where will his delegates go? For Romney – where he can exchange them for power positions and issues in the platform – or to Santorum, his more closely aligned opponent on conservative values.
Mitt Romney: Inevitable?Mitt Romney: Inevitable?Mitt Romney: Inevitable?Mitt Romney: Inevitable?
� Private sector success
� Moderate to conservative
leanings.
� Former Governor of
Massachusetts.
� Strongest organization and
largest $ resources to go toe-to-
toe with President Obama.
� And no one can seem to catch
him ☺
http://www.c-span.org/Politics/
ELECTION RESULTS VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS AND GOOGLEELECTION RESULTS VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS AND GOOGLEELECTION RESULTS VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS AND GOOGLEELECTION RESULTS VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS AND GOOGLE®®®®
This interactive display lets you view AP election result data by state as well as county-
by-county within each state; click on a state to go to the county level. Data includes
candidate vote totals as well as delegate count. (Slide or zoom map to show Alaska and
Hawaii.)
ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA MCCAIN 2008ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA MCCAIN 2008ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA MCCAIN 2008ELECTORAL COLLEGE: OBAMA MCCAIN 2008
The Missouri Mess� Two Step: Primary and Caucus � Primary awarded no delegates� Caucus rules unclear… ratify primary or “re-vote”� But the events in St. Charles County and elsewhere were
symptoms of a larger problem. The Republican Party didn't establish any uniform statewide rules for running the local county and township caucuses, and instead left each individual caucus to make its own rules for how to run the caucus and select delegates at the caucus meeting (or, in the words of the party, "to decide on a procedure for voting on delegates and alternatives").
Read more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/opinion/guest-commentary-don-t-ditch-the-caucus-system/article_67ea4995-9638-5a77-8bc8-d7327f2e503e.html#ixzz1qM62YELm
Primary and Caucus Rules:
Missouri 2 Step is a MisMissouri 2 Step is a MisMissouri 2 Step is a MisMissouri 2 Step is a Mis----StepStepStepStep
Each caucus could determine whether to elect each delegate to the district and state conventions individually or by slate.
Each caucus could impose requirements on delegates such as binding those delegates to a particular candidate or to the results of the earlier primary.
While local control is sometimes desirable, in this case, it led either to chaos or (worse) a small, well-organized group railroading everybody else.