us hotel outlook · 2021/1/14 · alan m. jutte vice president west division +1 206 292 6051...
TRANSCRIPT
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US HOTEL OUTLOOK
Jan 14, 2021
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U.S. CASES BROKEN DOWN BY REGIONDai l y new increase in 7 -day mov ing averages
Source: COVID Tracking Project, US Census, BEA, CBRE Research, Macrobond, 11 Jan 2021.Note: Regions defined by US Census Bureau
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
3/14 4/4 4/25 5/16 6/6 6/27 7/18 8/8 8/29 9/19 10/10 10/31 11/21 12/12 1/2
Daily
Case
s
Northeast Midwest West South
Northeast: 20% of GDP
17% of Population
Midwest: 19% of GDP
21% of Population
South: 35% of GDP
38% of Population
West: 26% of GDP
24% of Population
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THE U.S. JUST ABOUT REGAINING CONTROL Dai l y new increase in 7-day mov ing averages ( thousands o f cases )
Source: COVID Tracking Project, US Census, BEA, CBRE Research, Macrobond, 12 Jan 2021.
Arizona
California
0
10
20
30
40
50
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1
Illinois
Ohio
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1
Wisconsin
New York
Pennsylvania
0
5
10
15
20
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1
Florida
Georgia
Texas
0
5
10
15
20
25
3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1
Midwest
West
Northeast
South
26% of GDP 24% of Population
20% of GDP 17% of Population
19% of GDP 21% of Population
35% of GDP 38% of Population
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
TRAVEL
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
TSA THROUGHPUT
Source: https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput 1/12/21
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
A P P L E M O B I L I T Y I N D E X U S
Source: Apple Mobility Index, CBRE Hotels Research 1/12/21
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
TURNING TO HOTELS
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
REBOUNDING OCCUPANCY & ADR – IMPRESSIVE RATE RECOVERY IN LUXURY
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Kalibri Labs, January 12th, 2021.Note: Covers Kalibri Weekly Sample, not scaled to full U.S. Hotel Industry Representation
Y-o-Y Change in Occupancy Y-o-Y Change in ADR
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
GAP BETWEEN WEEKDAY AND WEEKEND OCCUPANCY CLOSING AS LEISURE TRIPS EXTEND INTO THE NEW YEAR
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Kalibri Labs, January 12th, 2021.Note: Covers Kalibri Weekly Sample, not scaled to full U.S. Hotel Industry Representation
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
RATE OF OPENING REVERSING – ESPECIALLY AT THE UPPER END
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Kalibri Labs, Hotel Compete, January 12th, 2021.
Percent of Rooms Closed by Chain Scale Percent of Rooms Closed by Market
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US HOTEL OPERATIONS
• November 2020
• Influence of Occupancy and ADR Change on Profits
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L S O P E R A T I N G P E R F O R M A N C E – A L L H O T E L S
Dollars Per Available Room: Year-Over-Year Change – May 2020 through November 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels Research
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L S O P E R A T I N G P E R F O R M A N C E – A L L H O T E L S
Dollars Per Available Room: Year-Over-Year Change - November 2020 vs November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L S O P E R A T I N G P E R F O R M A N C E – A L L H O T E L S
Dollars Per Occupied Room: Year-Over-Year Change - November 2020 vs November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
C H A N G E I N R E V E N U E S – A L L H O T E L S
Source: CBRE Hotels Research
Year-Over-Year Change - November 2020 vs November 2019
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L T O T A L O P E R A T I N G R E V E N U E – B Y P R O P E R T Y T Y P E
Dollars Per Available Room: Year-Over-Year Change – November 2020 vs November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Same-Store Sample
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L G R O S S O P E R A T I N G P R O F I T C H A N G E – B Y P R O P E R T Y T Y P E
Year-Over-Year Change – November 2020 vs November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Same-Store Sample
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L G R O S S O P E R A T I N G P R O F I T – B Y C H A I N - S C A L E
Year-Over-Year Change – November 2020 vs November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Same-Store Sample
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L G R O S S O P E R A T I N G P R O F I T – B Y P R O P E R T Y T Y P E
Dollars Per Available Room: Year-Over-Year Change – YTD November 2020 vs YTD November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Same-Store Sample
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L E B I T D A – B Y P R O P E R T Y T Y P E
Dollars Per Available Room: Year-Over-Year Change – YTD November 2020 vs YTD November 2019
Source: CBRE Hotels Research, Same-Store Sample
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L E B I T D A M A R G I N – B Y P R O P E R T Y T Y P E
Percent of Total Operating Revenue – YTD November 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels Research
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CBRE U.S. HOTEL OUTLOOK
U . S . H O T E L E B I T D A M A R G I N – B Y C H A I N - S C A L E
Percent of Total Operating Revenue – YTD November 2020
Source: CBRE Hotels Research
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HOW WE CAN HELPCBRE Hotels AdvisoryWe understand the impact the current pandemic crisis is taking on your day-to-day operations and business models. As you evaluate the implications on yourassets, CBRE Hotels stands ready to assist with the most up-to-date information, data, and customized services. The US CBRE Hotels Advisory team covers allterritories and is backed by the #1 US Hotel Research group in the nation, enabling us to be the best equipped professionals for this situation.
We have identified the following services that can be offered in expedited fashion. They are largely customizable and incorporate real-time data that can beapplied to your specific property or portfolio. Given the scale and experience of our professional team, together with the unparalleled strength of the world’sleading hospitality group, CBRE Hotels Advisory is prepared to offer these services on a weekly, bi-weekly, monthly or one-time basis. CBRE Hotels Advisory isprepared to immediately help you navigate through the current environment with confidence.
• Liquidity Assessment
• Receivership Services
• Asset Management
• Financial Benchmarking
• Operational Reviews
• Occupancy Forecasting
• Litigation Support
• Debt Advisory
• Operator/Brand Selection
• Branding, Re-Branding & Marketing
• Development Advisory
• Management Company Selection
• Acquisition Due Diligence:
+ Buy Side
+ Sell Side
+ Technical
• Market Demand & Financial Feasibility Analysis (Both New & Existing)
• Appraisals for:
+ Financing
+ Property Tax Appeal/Assessment
+ Estate Purposes
• Stress Tests
• Impairment Testing
Our Suite of Services:
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Tommy Crozier, MAI, CRE, CCIMNational Hotel Practice Leader
+1 704 331 [email protected]
CBRE HOTELS ADVISORYLEADERSHIP TEAM
Alan M. Jutte Vice President West Division+1 206 292 [email protected]
Julie PurnellExecutive Vice President West Division+1 212 984 [email protected]
Jeff Lugosi, CRE, MAI, FRICS, ISHCExecutive Vice President West Division+1 213 613 [email protected]
Amelia LimExecutive Vice President West Division+1 808 541 5171 [email protected]
Diane Tanner Fox Senior Vice PresidentMidwest Division +1 312 233 [email protected]
Brandon FeighnerExecutive Vice President West Division+1 213 613 3373 [email protected]
Olivier Gompel Executive Vice PresidentMidwest Division +1 312 315 [email protected]
Mark LetscherDirectorMidwest Division +1312 540 [email protected]
Daniel C. Hanrahan II, CRE, MAI Senior Vice PresidentNortheast Division+1 212 207 6021 [email protected]
Kannan SankaranSenior Vice PresidentNortheast Division+1 202 585 [email protected]
Mark VanStekelenburg, ISHC Executive Vice PresidentNortheast Division+1 212 984 [email protected]
Kevin DonahueVice PresidentSouth Central Division +1 512 499 4981 [email protected]
Jeff BinfordExecutive Vice PresidentSouth Central Division +1 214 979 [email protected]
Fernando Garcia-ChaconExecutive Vice President, South Florida, Caribbean & LA Division+1 305 381 [email protected]
Tim Dick, PhD, MAI, CRE Executive Vice President Southeast Division+1 404 504 [email protected]
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THANK YOU!
This presentation has been prepared in good faith based on CBRE’s current views of the commercial real-estate market. Although CBRE believes its views reflect market conditions on the date of this presentation, they are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies, many of which are beyond CBRE’s control. In addition, many of CBRE’s views are opinion and/or projections based on CBRE’s subjective analyses of current market circumstances. Other firms may have different opinions, projections and analyses, and actual market conditions in the future may cause CBRE’s current views to later be incorrect. CBRE has no obligation to update its views herein if its opinions, projections, analyses or market circumstances later change.Nothing in this presentation should be construed as an indicator of the future performance of CBRE’s securities or of the performance of any other company’s securities. You should not purchase or sell securities – of CBRE or any other company – based on the views herein. CBRE disclaims all liability for securities purchased or sold based on information herein, and by viewing this presentation, you waive all claims against CBRE and the presenter as well as against CBRE’s affiliates, officers, directors, employees, agents, advisers and representatives arising out of the accuracy, completeness, adequacy or your use of the information herein.© Copyright 2021 CBRE