U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Step 7 Identify Population Objectives

Population Objective is set here

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

• Describe what is meant by population objectives

• Describe characteristics of population objectives

• Identify existing resources of population objectives

Learning Objectives

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Population Objectives

A population objective is a measurable outcome describing the...

3) Vital Rates

1) Abundance

2) Trend

4) Population index

Ex: 7,400 kites

Ex: 10% annual increase in kites Ex: 2 fledglings/pair/year

Ex: 62 active territories

Swallow-tailed kite...of an organism inhabiting a given area.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Population Objectives

We measure population objectives to understand how species numbers, trends, vital rates or indices change over time.

Changes can be biological: Vegetation succession / climatic / density

Changes can be anthropogenic: Habitat conversion / varying management regimes

The PO informs conservation planning and management decisions

Hey PO…. I’m your density

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

- Population Objectives - Choose Wisely

Are the population objectives biologically realistic, given:

• The biology of the species.• The issue at hand (justification).• The current landscape.• Future trends in the landscape.

Can you measure it? With the accuracy required?

(Have you identified the accuracy required?)

Do population objectives span spatial sales?

What’s the time scale?

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Population Objectives

• Downlisting criterion #1: Based on their current population trajectory, >400 birds should be reached between 2023 and 2027.

• Downlisting criterion #2: Population unlikely to reach 1,000 birds by 2040.

Butler et al. in review.

Whooping Cranes

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Examples of Existing Population Objectives

Conservation Target/Species Groups Existing Guidance with Goals and Objectives

Migratory birds

Goals and objectives from continental plans for waterfowl, land birds, water birds and shorebirds; Joint Venture or Bird Conservation Region implementation plans

Species of Greatest Conservation Need State Wildlife Action Plans

Marine mammalsIndividual species conservation plans or recovery plans (e.g. Pacific walrus, sea otters, Florida manatee)

Fish and aquatic resourcesManagement plans by stocks or sites; National Fish Habitat Action Plan partnerships

Threatened and endangered speciesRecovery plans, Spotlight Species Action Plans, 5-Year Reviews

Game species State management plans Ecological services and other more

traditional conservation targets (species, habitat types)

Other partner strategic planning documents and implementation plans.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Oh No! No Population Objective Exists!

Follow recipe:

1)

2) What does public want?

3) Work Collaboratively:

NGO’s, States, DOI, DOA, Tribes, LCC, JV

4) Use other method – species/habitat models, carrying capacity …. (provided choose wisely).

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Step 8 Test For Logic and Consistency

• Explain the importance of evaluating the effectiveness of selected species for representing a broader suite of species

• Describe strategies for evaluating effectiveness of a surrogate species approach

• Discuss why it is important to ensure consistency across landscapes

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Why Evaluate Effectiveness?

Assumption: surrogate species or groups are proxies for management of a larger suite of species

Yet the surrogate concept has mixed results……

• Is surrogate selection appropriate to achieve objectives?• Does it work?

The selection of surrogate species informs conservation planning and actions

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Ways To Test Logic Of Selection• Articulate the assumed linkages between surrogate and

beneficiary species.• Examine geographic overlap between surrogate and beneficiary

species.• Expert review to ensure selection is defensible/sound.• Model, measure or monitor effects.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Consistency

Aim for consistency in selection of species and objectives across the landscape.

So we’re efficient and effective

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Step 9 Identify Knowledge Gaps and Uncertainties

• Discuss reasons why it is important to identify knowledge gaps and uncertainties throughout the process.

• Explain how you can use this information to identify future needs for research and monitoring that will improve our ability to meet our objectives.

• Describe how uncertainty and knowledge gaps might influence selection of species.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Knowledge Gaps and Uncertainties

This wondrous thing, though not a lie, can comfort the biologist when time runs dry. To sell your work, it can be an important tool, but without testing first, you could look the fool…

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Knowledge Gaps and Uncertainties

Surrogate species selection and establishing biological outcomes should document:

– Knowledge gaps– Uncertainties– Assumptions

…plus determine their influence or relative importance

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Gaps, Uncertainties, and Assumptions Drive Research and Monitoring

• Identifying gaps, uncertainty or assumptions helps drive a deliberate research agenda (if they’re important enough)

• This helps guide where future research and monitoring contribute most.• Targets where resources meet pressing needs.• Allows us to adapt our approaches with new information

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Risk, Uncertainty, and Surrogate Species Selection

• Does species with high uncertainty of being an appropriate surrogate? Maybe hold back.

• Does species have information gaps with a high risk of altering decision? Maybe hold back.

Can assess structurally (SDM) or informally among taxon experts.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Step 10Monitoring Effectiveness

• Describe how you would determine the effectiveness of a surrogate species approach (i.e., test the assumptions made when selecting surrogate species).

• Identify what information you would need to determine effectiveness.

• Discuss how effectiveness of this approach could be improved by iteratively repeating the steps in the process with lessons learned from this evaluation.

• Consider what biological outcomes would need to be measured to demonstrate effectiveness of a surrogate species approach.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Monitoring Effectiveness

Questions: How well does the selected surrogate represent the other species within the shared ecosystem?

How effective is the surrogate species approach?

Response: Monitor it!

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Testing Effectiveness of Surrogate Species Approach

Provide information to reduce risks and uncertainties

• Test assumptions• Monitor relationship between surrogate and beneficiary species (trends,

indices, vital rates, abundance etc.)

Testing the “linkage” between the surrogate species and species represented

This step is not testing management efficacy.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Investigate to Validate the Surrogate

If information to gauge effectiveness is unavailable:

• What sources of information may be used?• Can models assist with efficacy?• What research could derive the information?• Does adaptive management have applicability

here?• Do all species in the ecosystem require

monitoring?• Could monitoring objectives be combined?• What related questions do you have?

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Considerations

After acquiring information to test the relationships, one may need to go back to select new or different surrogates to represent all priority species.

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service

Conserving the Nature of America

Questions (Clarifying the Process)