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US Elections 2012 RESEARCH PAPER 12/69 16 November 2012

Barack Obama won the US Presidential Election of 6 November 2012. The Democrat defeated the Republican candidate Mitt Romney. Provisional voting statistics suggest that Obama won 50.6% of the popular vote to Romney’s 47.8%. Obama is projected to have secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206. Elections were held on the same day for the US House of Representatives, one third of the US Senate, and for eleven state governorships. Democrats won a majority of seats in the Senate, and Republicans won a majority of the House of Representatives. Control of both chambers remains unchanged.

Tom Rutherford Matthew Keep Mark Taylor SOCIAL AND GENERAL STATISTICS

Jeremy Hardacre STATISTICS RESOURCE UNIT

HOUSE OF COMMONS LIBRARY

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Research Papers are available as PDF files: • to members of the general public on the Parliamentary web site, URL: http://www.parliament.uk • within Parliament to users of the Parliamentary Intranet, URL: http://hcl1.hclibrary.parliament.uk

Library Research Papers are compiled for the benefit of Members of Parliament and their personal staff. Authors are available to discuss the contents of these papers with Members and their staff but cannot advise members of the general public. We welcome comments on our papers; these should be sent to the Research Publications Officer, Room 407, 1 Derby Gate, London, SW1A 2DG or e-mailed to HPAPERS@parliament.uk ISSN 1368-8456

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Summary of main points

• Democratic candidate President Barack Obama won the US Presidential Election of 6 November 2012, defeating the Republican candidate Governor Mitt Romney

• Provisional voting statistics suggest that Obama won 50.6% of the popular vote to

Romney’s 47.8%

• Obama is projected to have secured 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206

• Obama won 26 states plus the District of Columbia, all of which he held from his 2008 victory. Of the 28 states that Obama won in 2008, Romney won Indiana, and North Carolina

• Exit poll data show that Obama performed particularly well among young voters,

women and Hispanics. He won almost unanimous support from Black voters

• Slightly fewer people voted in 2012 than in the 2008 Presidential election

• Elections were held on the same day for one third of the US Senate, US House of Representatives and for eleven state governorships

• Democrats won a majority of seats in the Senate, and Republicans won a majority of

the House of Representatives

Note on data sources and accuracy The election results in this paper are as reported by the Associated Press on Tuesday 13 November 2012. They are not complete and should be considered indicative only. Some further ballots have been collated since that date but others remain outstanding. The official results will be published by the Federal Election Commission, Hwww.fec.govH Historical data are those published by the Federal Election Commission and the US Census Bureau, Hwww.census.govH The analysis of voting by social characteristics uses data from the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit poll used by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. Data are available on the CNN website: Hhttp://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/H

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CONTENTS

I  Results 6 

A.  Presidential election 6 

1.  National votes cast 6 

2.  Electoral College 7 

3.  Votes by state 9 

4.  States changing hands 11 

5.  Swing States 11 

6.  Change in share of the vote 13 

B.  Senate elections 14 

C.  House of Representatives elections 16 

D.  State Governor elections 17 

E.  Ballot initiatives 17 

II  Analysis of Presidential Election result 19 

A.  Exit poll 19 

1.  How different social groups voted in 2012 19 

2.  Political issues affecting voter choice 22 

B.  The Electoral College winning post 24 

III  The campaign 25 

A.  Campaign timeline 25 

B.  Opinion polls 26 

1.  Opinion poll trends 26 

2.  State-level opinion polls 26 

IV  Historical context 28 

A.  US Presidential Elections 1960-2012 28 

B.  Turnout 32 

V  Background 33 

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A.  Presidential election 33 

1.  Candidates 33 

2.  The Electoral College 34 

3.  Electoral College vote, 17 December 2012 36 

4.  Confirmation of the election results by Congress, 7 January 2013 36 

5.  Inauguration Day, 20/21 January 2013 37 

B.  Congressional elections 37 

1.  Senate 37 

2.  House of Representatives 37 

3.  113th Congress 38 

VI  Appendices 39 

1.  APPENDIX 1 39 

2.  APPENDIX 2 41 

3.  APPENDIX 3 43 

4.  APPENDIX 4 53 

5.  APPENDIX 5 55 

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I Results

A. Presidential election

The Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, was elected for a second term as the 44th President of the United States, defeating the Republican candidate, Mitt Romney. 1. National votes cast

Results collated so far suggest that Barack Obama won approximately 50.6% of the popular vote, to Mitt Romney’s 47.8%. Other candidates, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Jill Stein, won a combined 1.6%. US Presidential Election 2012: votes cast summary

Candidate Running mate Party Votes % vote

Barack Obama Joe Biden Democratic 62,280,959 50.6%Mitt Romney Paul Ryan Republican 58,899,127 47.8%Gary Johnson Jim Gray Libertarian 1,201,182 1.0%Jill Stein Cheri Honkala Green 426,084 0.3%Virgil Goode Jim Clymer Constitution 117,899 0.1%Other 201,553 0.2%

Total 123,126,804 100.0%

Obama50.6%

Others1.6%

Romney47.8%

Popular vote

• Obama is the second Democratic candidate (after Bill Clinton) to win re-election

to a second full term since World War 2. He is the only candidate of either party since WW2 to win a second term by a narrower margin than his first.

• Obama is the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt to win two presidential elections with more than 50% of the popular vote

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2. Electoral College

The US President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen instead by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia is allocated the same number as the least populous states, currently three. In 48 of America’s 50 states, and in the District of Columbia, Electoral College votes are awarded on a “winner-take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where two electors are chosen by state-wide popular vote and the remainder by popular vote in each congressional district. In total, the Electoral College comprises 538 members, so to be elected, a candidate must win at least 270 Electoral College votes. For further details on the operation of the Electoral College, please see section V.A.2 (page 34).

State ECVs State ECVs

California 55 Alabama 9Colorado 9 Alaska 3Connecticut 7 Arizona 11Delaware 3 Arkansas 6District of Columbia 3 Georgia 16Florida 29 Idaho 4Hawaii 4 Indiana 11Illinois 20 Kansas 6Iowa 6 Kentucky 8Maine 4 Louisiana 8Maryland 10 Mississippi 6Massachusetts 11 Missouri 10Michigan 16 Montana 3Minnesota 10 Nebraska 5Nevada 6 North Carolina 15New Hampshire 4 North Dakota 3New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7New Mexico 5 South Carolina 9New York 29 South Dakota 3Ohio 18 Tennessee 11Oregon 7 Texas 38Pennsylvania 20 Utah 6Rhode Island 4 West Virginia 5Vermont 3 Wyoming 3Virginia 13Washington 12Wisconsin 10

Democrat total 332 Republican total 206

Democrat Republican

US Presidential Election 2012: projected distribution of Electoral College votes

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Based on states won, current projections suggest that Obama will win 332 Electoral College votes, to Romney’s 206.

Obama, 332

Romney, 206

Electoral College Votes

• Obama’s Electoral College votes total will be lower than his 2008 total, but higher

than that of any other candidate since Bill Clinton won 379 votes in 1996. The map below shows the projected distribution of Electoral College votes by state, with states resized in proportion to their number of Electoral College votes. Geographically large states with small populations (and thus small numbers of Representatives), such as Montana and Wyoming, shrink in size, while geographically small but populous states, such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, appear larger.

Credit: Mark Newman, Univ. of Michigan. Reproduced under Creative Commons Licence

Presidential election winner by state, resized by electoral votes

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3. Votes by state

Barack Obama won the popular vote in 26 states, plus the District of Columbia. Mitt Romney won 24 states. US Presidential Election 2012: results by state

State Result Obama Romney State Result Obama Romney

Alabama Rep hold 38.4% 60.7% Missouri Rep hold 44.3% 53.9%Alaska Rep hold 41.6% 55.0% Montana Rep hold 42.9% 56.7%Arizona Rep hold 44.1% 54.2% Nebraska Rep hold 37.8% 60.5%Arkansas Rep hold 36.9% 60.5% Nevada Dem hold 52.3% 45.7%California Dem hold 59.2% 38.4% New Hampshire Dem hold 52.2% 46.4%Colorado Dem hold 51.4% 46.7% New Jersey Dem hold 58.0% 40.9%Connecticut Dem hold 58.4% 40.4% New Mexico Dem hold 52.9% 43.0%Delaware Dem hold 58.6% 40.0% New York Dem hold 62.6% 36.0%D.C. Dem hold 92.2% 7.2% North Carolina Rep gain 48.4% 50.6%Florida Dem hold 50.0% 49.1% North Dakota Rep hold 38.9% 58.7%Georgia Rep hold 45.4% 53.4% Ohio Dem hold 50.2% 48.3%Hawaii Dem hold 70.6% 27.8% Oklahoma Rep hold 33.2% 66.8%Idaho Rep hold 32.7% 64.8% Oregon Dem hold 54.4% 42.7%Illinois Dem hold 57.3% 41.1% Pennsylvania Dem hold 52.0% 46.8%Indiana Rep gain 43.8% 54.3% Rhode Island Dem hold 62.7% 35.5%Iowa Dem hold 52.2% 46.5% South Carolina Rep hold 44.0% 54.6%Kansas Rep hold 37.8% 60.0% South Dakota Rep hold 39.9% 57.9%Kentucky Rep hold 37.8% 60.5% Tennessee Rep hold 39.0% 59.5%Louisiana Rep hold 40.7% 58.0% Texas Rep hold 41.4% 57.2%Maine Dem hold 56.0% 40.9% Utah Rep hold 24.9% 73.0%Maryland Dem hold 61.7% 36.6% Vermont Dem hold 67.0% 31.2%Massachusetts Dem hold 60.8% 37.6% Virginia Dem hold 50.8% 47.8%Michigan Dem hold 54.3% 44.8% Washington Dem hold 55.9% 41.7%Minnesota Dem hold 52.8% 45.1% West Virginia Rep hold 35.5% 62.3%Mississippi Rep hold 43.5% 55.6% Wisconsin Dem hold 52.7% 46.0%

Wyoming Rep hold 28.0% 69.3%

% vote % vote

• Barack Obama won over 92% of the vote in the District of Columbia and over 70% in Hawaii

• Obama won over 50% of the vote in 26 states plus the District of Columbia • Mitt Romney won over 50% of the vote in 24 states, including Utah, where he

won 73%, and Wyoming, where he won 69% • A relative absence of strong third-party candidates contributed to every state

being won with 50%+ of the vote. Full state-by-state Presidential Election results are in Appendix I (page 39).

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4. States changing hands

Romney won all 22 states won by Republican candidate John McCain in 2008. He also won two states won by President Obama in 2008, and secured all 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, which had split its vote 4-1 in favour of McCain in 2008. The table and map below detail the results in those states.

US Presidential Election 2012: results in states that changed hands

State Obama Romney Obama McCain Dem Rep

Indiana 43.8% 54.3% +10.5% 49.9% 49.0% 0.9% -6.1% +5.3%North Carolina 48.4% 50.6% +2.2% 49.9% 49.5% 0.4% -1.5% +1.1%

Romney lead

% vote 2012 Change 2008-12% vote 2008 Obama lead

Full state-by-state Presidential Election results are in Appendix I (page 39). 5. Swing States

The existence of the Electoral College, and the “Winner takes all” model of allocating electoral votes in most states means that there is an incentive for campaigns to concentrate their efforts in only a few “swing” states where polling and history suggests that either side has a realistic chance of winning.

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The list of swing states for each election emerges on a de facto basis, and can change as the campaign progresses. For example, at the start of the campaign, Wisconsin was considered a relatively solid (non-swing) Democratic state. However, Mr Romney’s selection of Paul ryan, a Wisconsin congressman as his vice-Presidential running-mate All of the states considered swing states in 2012 were won by President Obama in 2008. Of the two which changed hands, Indiana was not considered a swing state, as it was widely thought that it would revert to the historical trend of voting Republican. Of the swing states listed in the table below, Romney was able to win only North Carolina, with all the remaining swing states remaining Democratic. 2012 Presidential election - Swing States

StateObama

ShareRomney

ShareObama Margin

Colorado 51.4% 46.7% +4.7%Florida 50.0% 49.1% +0.9%Iowa 52.2% 46.5% +5.7%Nevada 52.3% 45.7% +6.6%New Hampshire 52.2% 46.4% +5.8%North Carolina 48.4% 50.6% -2.2%Ohio 50.2% 48.3% +1.9%Pennsylvania 52.0% 46.8% +5.1%Virginia 50.8% 47.8% +3.1%Wisconsin 52.7% 46.0% +6.7%

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6. Change in share of the vote

The chart below shows the percentage point change in the Democrat share of the vote between 2008 and 2012 by state:

‐10.0% ‐8.0% ‐6.0% ‐4.0% ‐2.0% +0.0% +2.0% +4.0% +6.0% +8.0%

Alaska

New Jersey

Mississippi

Louisiana

New York

Maryland

Vermont

Rhode Island

Alabama

District of Columbia

Florida

Ohio

South Carolina

Arizona

Oklahoma

Hawaii

Massachusetts

Minnesota

North Carolina

Virginia

Washington

Georgia

Maine

Iowa

California

Arkansas

Colorado

New Hampshire

Connecticut

United States

Texas

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Tennessee

Nevada

Michigan

Kentucky

Delaware

Idaho

Nebraska

Wisconsin

Kansas

New Mexico

Montana

Illinois

Wyoming

South Dakota

Missouri

North Dakota

Indiana

West Virginia

Utah

Us Presidential Election 2012: Change in Democratic Share of Vote, by State

• The Democrats increased share of the vote in seven states relative to 2008:

Vermont, Maryland, New York, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey and Alaska • The biggest increase Republican vote share was in Utah, with its very large

Mormon population, followed by West Virginia and Indiana. Full state-by-state Presidential Election results are in Appendix I (page 39).

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B. Senate elections

Elections were held for 33 of the 100 seats in the US Senate. Prior to the elections, Democrats held 21 of the 33 seats in play, while Republicans held 10. Two seats were held by Independents, although both of these caucused with the Democrats1.

• Democrats won 22 of the 33 seats, gaining three seats (Connecticut from Independent, Indiana and Massachusetts from Republicans) and losing one (Nebraska)

• Republicans won 9 seats, gaining 1 from Democrats, losing 2 to Democrats, and losing 1 to Independent (Maine)

US Senate Elections 2012: results summary

Pre-election

Election result Change

Post-election

Democrat 51 23 +2 53Republican 47 8 -2 45Independent 2 2 0 2

• The Democrats will hold a majority of seats in the Senate. Of the two Independent Senators, Bernie Sanders (Vermont) has previously caucused with the Democrats. Newly elected Senator Angus King (Maine) has yet to make his intentions known with regard to which party he will caucus with.

• Even if the independents were both to caucus with the Democrats, this bloc would be short of the 60-seat supermajority required to invoke “cloture”2 and ensure that debates could not be filibustered by the Republican minority.

Further detailed information on the US Senate is contained in section V.B.1 (page 37). Detailed Senate election results by state are contained in Appendix 2 (page 41). 1 Caucasing with a party means that independents are treated as members of that party for the purposes of

committee assignments and other senate business. 2 Cloture refers to the procedure for limiting debate, and bringing a measure for a final vote

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House of Representatives elections

Elections were held for all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives. Owing to the effects of redistricting in the majority of states, seat-for-seat comparisons and the number of seats “gained” or “lost” by parties cannot be made.

• Republicans have won 234 seats, down from 242 at the last (2010) election, and Democrats 197 (up from 193 in 2010).

• Four seats contested on 4 November remain uncalled: Arizona 02, California 07, Florida 18 and North Carolina 07. All were previously held by Republicans.

US House Elections 2012: results summary

Previous election

Election result Change

Republican 242 234 -8Democrat 193 197 +4Not called 0 4 +4

Democrat, 197

Not called, 4

Republican, 234

House composition

• Currently available data suggest that the Democrats won 49.0% of the national vote, compared with 48.2% for the Republicans

• 13 seats were uncontested, comprising 4 Democrat and 9 Republican Further detailed information on the House of Representatives Elections is contained in section V.B.2 (page 37). Detailed House of Representative election results by state and district are contained in Appendix 3 (page 43).

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C. State Governor elections

Elections for State Governor were held in 11 states.

• The only change of party occurred in North Carolina, where Republican Pat McCrory won the election to replace retiring Democrat Bev Perdue.

• No incumbent governors standing for re-election were defeated • Four retiring or term limited governors (one Republican and 3 Democrats) were

replaced by members of their own party. • After those elected on November 6th are sworn into office, there will be 30

Republicans, 19 Democrats and 1 Independent governor.

US State Governor Elections 2012: results summary

Pre-election

Election result Change

Post-election

Democrat 20 7 -1 19Republican 29 4 +1 30Independent 1 0 0 1

Detailed State Governor election results are contained in Appendix 4 (page 53).

D. Ballot initiatives

It is estimated that 176 state-wide ballot propositions were voted on in 38 different states on 6 November 2012.3 The results included:

• Colorado and Massachusetts passed measures legalizing the recreational, as well as medical use of marijuana.

• Massachusetts rejected a measure allowing terminally ill, mentally competent adults to request and receive a lethal dose of medication.

• Same-sex marriage was legalized in Maine, Maryland and Washington state. • Washington passed a measure which allows mentally competent, terminally ill

adults to request and self-administer a lethal overdose of medication • Arizona voters rejected a measure which would have asserted the state’s

sovereignty over natural resources and landscapes, including the Grand Canyon Detailed voting information for selected ballot measures is contained in Appendix 5 (page 54).

3 www.ballotpedia.org

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II Analysis of Presidential Election result

A. Exit poll

This section uses data from the Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International exit poll used by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. In total, more than 50,000 people were interviewed on polling day, with a further 10,000 early voters interviewed by telephone the week before.4 The data are subject to a weighting process designed to result in data that best reflect the actual voting population. It should, however, be noted that they are subject to a degree of error. 1. How different social groups voted in 2012

The heights of the bars in the charts below are proportional to the group’s estimated share of the voting population. The figures in brackets show that share. Historical comparisons are based on the New York Times archive.5

Key: Obama McCainRomney

a. Gender

• Estimates suggest that Barack Obama won the popular vote among women but lost among men

• His lead among women was 11%, compared with a 7% deficit among men

• Archive data suggest Republicans have won the male vote at every election since 1992, with the exception of 2008.

• The Democrats have won the female vote at each election since 1992 b. Age

• Obama won three-fifths of the vote among those aged under 30 • The older a voter was, the more likely they were to vote for Romney, with the

Republican winning the 65+ age group by 12 points

4 See http://www.exit-poll.net/ and http://surveys.ap.org/exitpolls/ 5 http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html

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c. Race

• Obama won near-unanimous support in Black voters and nearly three-quarters of Hispanic votes

• Romney won majority support by White voters. Whites made up 72% of voters in 2012, down from 89% in 1980

• The Republican candidate has won the White vote at each election since 1972, the first year for which data are readily available. The Democratic candidate has won a majority of both Black and Hispanic votes at each election

d. Religion

• Romney won a majority of Protestant votes. Obama won amongst Catholics, Jews, other religions and voters of no religion.

• Romney won among those who attend a religious service at least once per week. Obama won among those who attend services occasionally or never.

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e. Income

• President Obama won support from nearly two thirds of voters in the lowest income bracket. In general, richer voters were more likely to vote for Mr Romney.

f. Education

• Obama won more votes than Romney across all education categories but one – those with undergraduate but not postgraduate degrees.

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g. Urban/rural

• Obama won a majority of the vote in urban areas while Romney won in rural areas

2. Political issues affecting voter choice

a. Most important issues: the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy

• 59% of voters thought the economy was the most important issue in the election, of the choices offered by the exit pollsters. This group voted for Mitt Romney, but by a relatively narrow margin. Voters who thought the federal budget deficit was the most important issue voted for Mitt Romney by 2 to 1.

• Voters who thought that either healthcare or foreign policy was the most important issue in the election voted for President Obama by large margins.

b. Political affiliation and ideology

• Party affiliation was a strong predictor of voting behaviour, with 93% of

Republicans voting for Romney and 92% of Democrats voting for Obama. Those with no party affiliation preferred Romney to Obama by a narrow margin.

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• Overall political ideology was a relatively strong factor in voting behaviour, but less so than party identification. More than 80% of self-defined Liberals and Conservatives voted for Obama and Romney respectively. Obama won the “moderate” vote by 15 points.

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B. The Electoral College winning post

The Electoral College system means that the candidate who wins the popular vote does not necessarily win the Presidency. The most recent example of this was the 2000 Presidential Election, when Democratic candidate Al Gore won 531,000 votes more than Republican George W Bush but lost the Electoral College vote by 271 to 266.6 The chart below plots the results of the Presidential Election by state, ordered left to right by Barack Obama’s lead in the share of the vote. The bars show the cumulative Electoral College votes secured at each point, with the lighter colours showing the marginal additions for that state.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

District o

f Colum

bia

Haw

aii

Verm

ont

Rhod

e Island

New

 York

Maryland

Massachusetts

California

Delaw

are

Conn

ecticut

New

 Jersey

Illinois

Maine

Washington

Oregon

New

 Mexico

Michigan

Minne

sota

Wisconsin

Nevada

New

 Ham

pshire

Iowa

Penn

sylvania

Colorado

Virginia

Ohio

Florida

North Carolina

Geo

rgia

Missouri

Arizona

Indiana

South Carolina

Mississippi

Alaska

Mon

tana

Texas

Louisiana

South Dakota

North Dakota

Tenn

essee

Kansas

Alabama

Kentucky

Neb

raska

Arkansas

West Virginia

Idaho

Oklahom

a

Wyoming

Utah

Cumulative electoral votes by State

269 Electoral Votes

• Obama reached 272 Electoral College votes, past the “winning post” of 270, with states he won by at least 4.2%, his lead in Colorado. Assuming uniform national swing against the actual result, this suggests he could have won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by 48.5% to 50.0%, a deficit of 1.5%

6 A further ‘faithless elector’ for the District of Columbia, pledged for Gore, cast no vote in protest at the lack

of statehood for the District

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III The campaign

A. Campaign timeline

Campaign timeline

3 January Iow a Caucuses: Republican contest reported as a virtual tie, later a very narrow victory for Rick Santorum4 January Michele Bachmann suspends her campaign, having finished 6th in Iow a10 January New Hampshire Primary w on by Mitt Romney19 January Rick Perry w ithdraw s from race, and endorses New t Gingrich21 January South Carolina Republican primary w on by New t Gingrich31 January Florida Republican primary w on by Mitt Romney

7 February Missouri Primary w on by Rick Santorum28 February Mitt Romney w ins primaries in Arizona and Michigan

6 March "Super Tuesday" - Mitt Romney w ins six state primaries, to 3 for Santorum and one (Georgia) for Gingrich

27 March New t Gingrich scales back campaign, but promises to continue fighting for the nomination to the Republican National Convention

3 April Barack Obama, having faced no serious opposition, is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for re-election

10 April Rick Santorum suspends his campaign25 April Republican National Committee declares Mitt Romney the "presumptive nominee"

2 May New t Gingrich formally suspends his campaign, and endorses Mitt Romney5 May Gary Johnson w ins the presidential nomination of the Libertarian Party

26 July On tour of Europe and Middle East, Mitt Romney makes comments perceived as critical regarding preparedness of London to host 2012 Olympic and Paralympic games

11 August Congressman Paul Ryan, of Wisconsin, is announced as Mitt Romney's running-mate. Mr Ryan is w idely seen as the leading light behind a controversial budget plan to convert Medicare for seniors into a voucher-based programme.

30 August Mitt Romney formally accepts the Republican nomination for President, at the Republican National Convention in Tampa Bay, Florida. His speech is preceded by Clint Eastw ood "interview ing" an empty chair, representing President Obama

6 September President Obama formally accepts the Democratic nomination for President, at the Democratic National Convention at Charlotte, North Carolina

11 Spetember US Ambassador and 3 other members of delegation killed in terrorist attack in Benghazi, Libya22 September The first General Election votes are cast, as early voting opens in 12 states.

3 October First Presidential debate, focusing on domestic issues and policy, held in Denver, Colorado. Mitt Romney is w idely held to have w on the debate, revitalising a f lagging campaign

11 October Vice Presidential debate held in Danville, Kentucky16 October Second Presidential debate, covering all topics in a "Tow n Hall" format, held in Long Island, New York22 October Third and final presidential debate, covering foreign affairs, held in Boca Raton, Florida25 October President Obama becomes the f irst sitting President to cast an early vote, voting in Chicago29 October Hurricane Sandy hits New York and New Jersey, causing a de facto suspension of both presidential

campaigns

4 November Obama w ins the Presidential Election. The Democrats increase their majority in the Senate, and eat into the Republican majority in the House of Representatives.

15 December Voters of the Electoral College meet in state capitals to cast their votes.

6 January The results of the Electoral College vote are formally declared to the US Senate20 January Second term of President Obama and Vice-President Biden off icially begins. 21 January Inauguration Day

April 2012

March 2012

September 2012

August 2012

July 2012

December 2012

January 2013

February 2012

January 2012

October 2012

November 2012

June 2012

May 2012

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B. Opinion polls

1. Opinion poll trends

The chart below shows national (as opposed to state-by-state) opinion poll trends as reported by major polling companies, starting from Mitt Romney’s confirmation as the de facto Republican nominee. Partisan pollsters have been excluded, and where multiple polls were concluded on the same day, the results have been averaged.

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35

40

45

50

55

06‐M

ay

13‐M

ay

20‐M

ay

27‐M

ay

03‐Jun

10‐Jun

17‐Jun

24‐Jun

01‐Jul

08‐Jul

15‐Jul

22‐Jul

29‐Jul

05‐Aug

12‐Aug

19‐Aug

26‐Aug

02‐Sep

09‐Sep

16‐Sep

23‐Sep

30‐Sep

07‐Oct

14‐Oct

21‐Oct

28‐Oct

04‐Nov

Obama (D) Romney (R)

While individual polls varied (most had a 3% margin of error), the trend showed Obama with a lead until early October. During the last month of the campaign, particularly after the first Presidential debate, the polls were essentially tied, and remained so until the election. 2. State-level opinion polls

Extensive opinion polling was carried out at a state level, as well as nationally. Several organisations and websites used the primary data of the polls, and individualised weighting algorithms to predict which candidate was likely to win each state, and hence predict an overall total for each candidate in the Electoral College. They used the fact that opinion polls can (at least partially) be aggregated – if several polls are done in the same state over the same time period and produce similar results, it can be said with a greater degree of confidence that the aggregated polls are likely to accurately predict the outcome. For example, in the last week of the campaign a number of polls suggested that President Obama was leading Ohio by 1 or 2 percentage points. Individually, each

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of these results was within the poll’s margin of error, but collectively, they were relatively strong evidence that the President had a small but real lead in this key state. The most prominent of these analysts was Nate Silver, writing for the New York Times at www.fivethirtyeight.com (named after the total number of Electoral Votes). Silver’s analysis, based on not only the outcome of polls, but also the polling companies track record was attacked by commentators who accused him of having a bias towards President Obama, and ignoring the national polls showing the race to be tied. The day before the election, Silver predicted that President Obama had a 91% probability of winning the Electoral College vote, and that the most likely outcome was a victory by 332 votes to 206 – the precise margin that occurred.

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IV Historical context

A. US Presidential Elections 1960-2012

US Presidential Elections 1960-2012: popular vote winner by state

Key: 1 Democrat 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 22 2

2 2 2 2 22

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 22 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2

2 2 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 22 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Republican Not called

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Alabama 1 1Alaska 1Arizona 1Arkansas 1 1 1 1 1California 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Colorado 1 1 1 1Connecticut 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Delaw are 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1District of Columbia (a) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Florida 1 1 1 1 1Georgia 1 1 1 1Haw aii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Idaho 1Illinois 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Indiana 1 1Iow a 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Kansas 1Kentucky 1 1 1 1Louisiana 1 1 1 1Maine 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Maryland 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Massachusetts 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Michigan 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Minnesota 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Mississippi 1 1Missouri 1 1 1 1 1Montana 1 1Nebraska 1Nevada 1 1 1 1 1 1New Hampshire 1 1 1 1 1 1New Jersey 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1New Mexico 1 1 1 1 1 1 1New York 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1North Carolina 1 1 1North Dakota 1Ohio 1 1 1 1 1 1Oklahoma 1Oregon 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Pennsylvania 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Rhode Island 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1South Carolina 1 1South Dakota 1Tennessee 1 1 1 1Texas 1 1 1 1Utah 1Vermont 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Virginia 1 1 1Washington 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1West Virginia 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Wisconsin 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1Wyoming 1

Note - this table shows the popular vote winner by state rather than the distribution of Electoral College Votes

Sources: US Census Bureau, Associated Press(a) District o f Columbia residents have voted in Presidential elections since 1964 fo llowing the adoption of the Twenty-Third Amendment in 1961

American Independent (Segregationist)

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Note: States are coloured according to the winner of the popular vote in each, rather than the final allocation of Electoral College votes. Occasionally, ‘faithless electors’ and unpledged delegates have not voted for the candidate chosen by popular vote in the electoral college

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US Presidential Election 2012: projected distribution of Electoral College votes

Democrat Republican State ECVs State ECVs

California 55 Alabama 9 Colorado 9 Alaska 3 Connecticut 7 Arizona 11 Delaware 3 Arkansas 6 District of Columbia 3 Georgia 16 Florida 29 Idaho 4 Hawaii 4 Indiana 11 Illinois 20 Kansas 6 Iowa 6 Kentucky 8 Maine 4 Louisiana 8 Maryland 10 Mississippi 6 Massachusetts 11 Missouri 10 Michigan 16 Montana 3 Minnesota 10 Nebraska 5 Nevada 6 North Carolina 15 New Hampshire 4 North Dakota 3 New Jersey 14 Oklahoma 7 New Mexico 5 South Carolina 9 New York 29 South Dakota 3 Ohio 18 Tennessee 11 Oregon 7 Texas 38 Pennsylvania 20 Utah 6 Rhode Island 4 West Virginia 5 Vermont 3 Wyoming 3 Virginia 13 Washington 12 Wisconsin 10

Democrat total 332 Republican total 206

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US Presidential Election results 1960-2012

Candidate Votes (000s) % vote ECVs Candidate Votes (000s) % vote ECVs

1960 Kennedy 34,227 49.7 303 Nixon 34,108 49.5 2191964 Johnson 42,825 61.1 486 Goldw ater 27,147 38.7 521968 Humphrey 30,989 42.4 191 Nixon 31,710 43.4 3011972 McGovern 28,902 37.2 17 Nixon 46,740 60.2 5201976 Carter 40,826 50.0 297 Ford 39,148 48.0 2401980 Carter 35,481 41.0 49 Reagan 43,643 50.5 4891984 Mondale 37,450 40.4 13 Reagan 54,167 58.5 5251988 Dukakis 41,717 45.5 111 Bush Snr 48,643 53.1 4261992 Clinton 44,858 42.9 370 Bush Snr 38,799 37.1 1681996 Clinton 47,402 49.2 379 Dole 39,198 40.7 1592000 Gore 50,996 48.3 266 Bush Jnr 50,465 47.8 2712004 Kerry 58,895 48.1 251 Bush Jnr 61,873 50.6 2862008 Obama 69,457 52.9 364 McCain 59,935 45.7 1622012 (a) Obama 62,282 50.6 332 Romney 58,900 47.9 206

(a): Vote totals and ECVs provisionalSources: US Census Bureau, Associated Press

Democrat Republican

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B. Turnout

The second highest vote total in history was cast at the 2012 Presidential Election:7

69 70 7378 82

8693 92

10596

106

122131

123

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Votes cast at US presidential Elections 1960-2012Millions

However, as a share of the voting age population, turnout in 2008 was down significantly on 2008, and well below that in the 1960s.

63.1 61.9 60.8

55.2 53.6 52.6 53.150.1

55.1

49.151.3

55.359.6

52.2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 (est.)

Turnout at US presidential Elections 1960-2012Share of voting age population, %

Reliable figures for voter registration are not yet available.

7 Data from US Census Bureau and US Federal Election Commission

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V Background

A. Presidential election

In the United States, under Article II of the Constitution, a Presidential election is held every four years. Federal law states that the election must take place on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November; meaning that US presidential elections, in practice, are held between 2 and 8 November.

In 2012, for re-electing the country’s 44th President or electing its 45th, election day was Tuesday 6 November. The 2012 election was the 56th consecutive US presidential election; even in wartime, there has been a US presidential election every four years since the first in 1789. The next presidential election is scheduled to take place on 8 November 2016.

The US Constitution (Article II, Section I) states that the President should serve a four-year term and can be removed from office only by the process of impeachment (Article II, Section IV). In deciding against standing for election to a third-term of office in 1796, the first US President, George Washington, established the constitutional convention of the two-term limit of presidential office. Only Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the 32nd President, who began his fourth term shortly before his death in April 1945, has been elected for more than two terms. Since the ratification of the Twenty-Second Amendment in 1951, however, Presidential tenure has been limited by the Constitution to no more than two four-year terms, or a maximum of ten years under special circumstances.8

1. Candidates

Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama received no serious opposition to his re-nomination for a second term. A small number of fringe and perennial candidates appeared on ballots in Democratic primaries throughout the spring of 2012, in some cases amassing enough votes to enable them to have a handful of delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention. In each case where this occurred, the national Democratic party ruled that the requirements for seating delegates had not been met. No candidate other than President Obama had delegates seated at the Democratic convention, held in Charlotte, South Carolina on 4-6 September 2012. Joe Biden was re-nominated as President Obama’s Vice-Presidential running-mate.

Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts, came through an extensive series of primaries and caucuses to secure the Republican nomination for President. Major candidates for the nomination included Congresswoman Michele Bachmann (Minnesota), former Speaker of the House of Representative Newt Gingrich (Georgia), former Governor and US Ambassador Jon Huntsman (Utah), Congressman Ron Paul (Texas), Governor Rick Perry (Texas), and former Senator Rick Santorum (Pennsylvania). In addition, businessman Herman Cain (Georgia) achieved prominence

8 This would apply if a twice-elected President had also served two years (or less) of the term of another

elected President. (US Constitution, Amendment XXII, ratified 27 February 1951)

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in late 2011, but withdrew from the race before the first contest after allegations of sexual harassment came to light.

Mitt Romney was prominent in opinion polling and results throughout the nomination contests, with various other candidates having a “moment in the sun” thanks to results or media coverage. Throughout the early primaries, Romney struggled to score more than 30-40% of the vote, with many members of the Republican voters suspecting that he was “insufficiently conservative” for the party. Most of Mr Romney’s opponents dropped out after a lack of success in early contests, with the last 2 remaining opponents, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul suspending their campaigns in early May. In addition to Romney, Paul and Santorum, the only other candidate to get a plurality of the vote in any state was Newt Gingrich, who won his home state of Georgia, and neighbouring South Carolina.

Mitt Romney’s nomination was mathematically confirmed with the California primary on June 5th, which gave him a majority of pledged delegates to the Republican national Convention. The nomination of Governor Romney, and his running-mate Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, was formalised at the Republican convention, held in Tampa Bay, Florida from 28-30 August.

Significant third-party candidates in the Presidential election included former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party), who appears on the ballot in 48 states and the District of Columbia; Jill Stein (Green Party) who is on the ballot in 36 states and the District, and former Congressman Virgil Goode (Constitution Party) who appears on 26 state ballot papers. In addition to appearing directly on ballot papers, all these candidates (and others) are eligible to receive write-in votes.

2. The Electoral College

Under Article II (Section I) of the US Constitution, the President and Vice President are not elected directly by popular vote, but are chosen instead by a majority vote of presidential electors, known collectively as the Electoral College. Each state is allocated a number of electors equal to the total number of its Senators and Representatives in Congress. The District of Columbia (Washington DC), which has a Delegate (as opposed to an elected Representative) in the House,9 has the same number of electors (three) as the least populous states. Thus, the Electoral College currently comprises 538 members, based on 435 Representatives, 100 Senators and three electors for the District of Columbia.

There were changes to the distribution of electoral votes in 2012 compared with 2008, as the number of seats each state was allocated in the House of Representatives changed. These changes, detailed in the table below, were as a result of population changes on a state level, as identified by the 2010 US Census.

9 Delegates may vote only in the House’s Committee of the Whole, which is used to expedite consideration of legislation. Its decisions require approval by the whole House. There are also Delegates for the US Virgin Islands, Guam and American Samoa, serving a 2-year term, and a Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico, who serves a 4-year term and has the same voting rights.

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Electoral College changes 2008 - 2012

State 2008 2012 ChangeArizona 10 11 +1Florida 27 29 +2Georgia 15 16 +1Illinois 21 20 -1Iowa 7 6 -1Louisiana 9 8 -1Massachussetts 12 11 -1Michigan 17 16 -1Missouri 11 10 -1Nevada 5 6 +1New Jersey 15 14 -1New York 31 29 -2Ohio 20 18 -2Pennsylvania 21 20 -1South Carolina 8 9 +1Texas 34 38 +4Utah 5 6 +1Washington 11 12 +1

Electoral Votes

Overall, “red states”, won by John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 gained 6 Electoral Votes, with the same number of votes lost in “blue states” won by President Obama in both elections.

To become President, a candidate must achieve an overall majority of votes in the Electoral College, that is, at least 270 Electoral College votes. In 48 of America’s 50 states, and in the District of Columbia, Electoral College votes are awarded on a “winner-take-all” basis, with the party slate that wins the most popular votes providing all the electors for that state. The exceptions are Maine and Nebraska, where two electors are chosen by state-wide popular vote and the remainder by popular vote in each congressional district.

The Electoral College never meets as a body. On Election Day voters in each state (and the District of Columbia) cast their votes for their choice of candidate for President and Vice President. The political parties (or independent candidates) in each state submit a list of prospective electors, who are pledged to their candidate for President and are equal in number to the state’s electoral vote. The major parties usually select their candidates for electors at state party conventions or through appointment by their state party leaders, while third parties and independent candidates designate theirs. Any citizen, other than a Member of Congress or an employee of the federal government, may be chosen to serve as elector, but in practice they are usually selected in recognition of service to their political party.10

There is no federal law requiring electors to vote as they have pledged, but in 29 states and the District of Columbia electors are bound by state law and/or by state or party

10 National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), US Electoral College, http://www.archives.gov/federal_register/electoral_college/selects.html

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pledge to cast their vote for the candidate that wins the state-wide popular vote. A number of electors have violated such laws over the years, but the penalties are not very severe. Many constitutional lawyers agree that electors remain free agents, despite state laws, and that, if challenged, such laws would be ruled unconstitutional.11

3. Electoral College vote, 17 December 2012

Following the general election, the electors meet in their respective states on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December (17 December in 2012) to vote, in separate ballots, for the President and Vice President. Under the Constitution, candidates for both posts require an absolute majority of Electoral College votes (270 out of 538) to be elected.

Since all the Electoral College votes for each state (and the District of Colombia) generally go to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in that state, the possibility exists that the presidential candidate who receives a majority (or plurality) of the popular votes nationwide may not receive a majority of the Electoral College votes. This has occurred only four times in the history of the United States, most recently to the Democratic presidential candidate, Al Gore, in the 2000 presidential election, who won 48.4% of the popular vote to George W Bush’s 47.9%, but lost the Electoral College by 266 votes to Bush’s 271 votes.12 The winning Electoral College votes came from Florida whose 25 College votes all went to Mr Bush despite the difference between the two in the state’s popular vote being only 537 popular votes. In 18 of the 56 presidential elections to date the winning candidate did not receive more than 50% of the popular votes cast, most recently George W Bush in 2000.13

4. Confirmation of the election results by Congress, 7 January 2013

Once the Governor of each state has certified the results of the Electoral College vote, they are forwarded to the President of the US Senate (the country’s Vice President, ex officio). The electoral vote certificates are then opened and tallied at a joint session of Congress held on 6 January following the election,14 with the Vice President presiding. The presidential and vice presidential candidates with the most electoral votes and an absolute majority of the votes cast (at least 270 out of 538) are then declared elected.

If no presidential candidate received an absolute majority of electoral votes, the newly elected House of Representatives (regarded as the chamber closest to the people) would select the President from among the top three contenders, with each state delegation in the House casting one vote only, and an absolute majority of the states being required to elect the President. If no candidate for Vice President obtained an absolute majority, then the newly constituted Senate, voting as individuals, would elect a Vice President from the top two contenders. A quorum of two thirds of the members of the Senate and a majority vote are required for the election to be valid.

11 Center for Voting and Democracy, State control of electors

http://www.fairvote.org/e_college/bindingstates.htm 12 Frederick M Kaiser, American national government: an overview, CRS Report for Congress, 20 May

2003 13 Guide to Congress, 5 ed., 2000, p390 14 On the following day if 6 January falls on a Sunday

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5. Inauguration Day, 20/21 January 2013

On 20 January following the date of the election, the President- and Vice President-elect are sworn into office at an inauguration ceremony in Washington DC, on the west side of the Capitol building. The terms of the previous President and Vice President end at noon on that day.15 Following an inaugural parade, the President takes the oath of office and delivers his inaugural address. If 20 January falls on a Sunday, as it does in 2013, it is convention that the President- and Vice-President-elect take the Oath of Office privately on the 20th and the formal Inauguration Ceremony is held the following day.

B. Congressional elections

1. Senate

Each state has two Senators, making a total membership of 100. Senators are elected for six-year terms, which are staggered by dividing Senators into three classes, so that only one third of the Senate is up for election every two years, in even-numbered years. Thus, every second Senate election coincides with a presidential election. Normally, no two Senate seats from the same state will be up for election in the same year. Senators are directly elected by ‘plurality’ vote, with the state serving, in effect, as a single-member district. The candidate with the largest number of votes – usually, but not necessarily, a majority – is elected. Georgia requires a candidate to receive a majority of popular votes in order to be elected.

51 seats are needed for either party to hold a majority. Under the Constitution, the Vice President (as President of the Senate, ex officio) casts the deciding vote in the event of a tied vote.

2. House of Representatives

Elections for members of the House of Representatives (435 seats) take place every second year in even-numbered years, on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. Thus, every second such election coincides with a presidential election, with mid-term House elections in between.

Each of the 50 states has at least one seat in the House of Representatives and the rest of the seats are allocated among the states according to their population. The least populous states (Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming) have only one seat in the House, while California has the largest number of seats (53). Candidates are nominated by primary election in most states, while some states provide for a party convention or committee recommendation in conjunction with a primary.

Representatives are elected by ‘plurality’ vote in the congressional district in which they are candidates (or ‘at-large’, across the state as a whole, in the seven least populous states with only one Representative). This means that the candidate with the largest number of votes – usually, but not necessarily, a majority – is elected. Exceptions to this

15 US Constitution, Amendment XX, Section 1

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38

rule are the District of Columbia (DC), for its Delegate to the House, and Georgia, both of which require a candidate to receive a majority of popular votes in order to be elected.

218 seats are required for either party to secure a majority. The Speaker of the House has a casting vote. The Republican Party held a majority of seats in the House of Representatives from January 1995 (on the basis of the 1994 election) to January 2007. In the 2006 mid-term elections, the Democrats gained control of the House for the first time in 14 years, holding a majority until the mid-term elections in 2010, when Republicans made a net gain of 62 seats, taking a total of 242 to the Democrats 193.

A significant factor in recent House elections has been the impact of partisan redistricting (redrawing of district boundaries) by both main parties in various state legislatures. This has created a political landscape in which it has become much more difficult to displace an incumbent and there is less scope for seats to change hands between parties. For the 2012 elections, the majority of states saw some form of redistricting. In some cases, this was mandated by a change in the number of seats, owing to changes in the share of population identified by the 2010 US Census.

3. 113th Congress

The terms of office of Senators and Representatives elected to the 113th Congress will begin at noon on 3 January 2013. The 113th Congress will last for two years, until January 2011, with each year constituting a separate session. Mid-term elections for the 114th Congress will be held in November 2014.

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VI Appendices 1. APPENDIX 1

US Presidential Election 2012: results by state

State ECVs Result Obama Romney Other Total Obama Romney Obama McCain Dem Rep

Alabama 9 Rep hold 793.6 1,252.5 18.6 2,064.7 38.4% 60.7% -22.2% 38.8% 60.4% -0.4% +0.2%Alaska 3 Rep hold 91.7 121.2 7.7 220.6 41.6% 55.0% -13.4% 36.2% 61.5% +5.3% -6.5%Arizona 11 Rep hold 900.1 1,107.1 34.3 2,041.5 44.1% 54.2% -10.1% 45.1% 53.7% -1.0% +0.5%Arkansas 6 Rep hold 389.7 638.5 26.9 1,055.1 36.9% 60.5% -23.6% 38.8% 58.8% -1.9% +1.8%California 55 Dem hold 6,241.6 4,046.5 250.5 10,538.7 59.2% 38.4% +20.8% 61.1% 37.1% -1.8% +1.3%Colorado 9 Dem hold 1,238.5 1,125.4 45.0 2,408.8 51.4% 46.7% +4.7% 53.5% 44.9% -2.1% +1.9%Connecticut 7 Dem hold 912.5 631.4 18.2 1,562.2 58.4% 40.4% +18.0% 60.6% 38.3% -2.2% +2.2%Delaware 3 Dem hold 242.5 165.5 5.8 413.8 58.6% 40.0% +18.6% 61.9% 37.0% -3.3% +3.0%District of Columbia 3 Dem hold 222.3 17.3 1.3 241.0 92.2% 7.2% +85.1% 92.9% 6.5% -0.6% +0.7%Florida 29 Dem hold 4,235.3 4,162.1 72.9 8,470.2 50.0% 49.1% +0.9% 50.9% 48.4% -0.9% +0.8%Georgia 16 Rep hold 1,761.8 2,070.2 45.1 3,877.0 45.4% 53.4% -8.0% 47.0% 52.3% -1.6% +1.1%Hawaii 4 Dem hold 303.1 119.5 6.9 429.5 70.6% 27.8% +42.7% 71.8% 26.6% -1.2% +1.2%Idaho 4 Rep hold 212.6 420.8 16.3 649.7 32.7% 64.8% -32.0% 36.1% 61.5% -3.4% +3.2%Illinois 20 Dem hold 2,916.8 2,090.1 84.1 5,091.1 57.3% 41.1% +16.2% 61.7% 37.0% -4.4% +4.1%Indiana 11 Rep gain 1,140.4 1,412.6 49.8 2,602.9 43.8% 54.3% -10.5% 49.9% 49.0% -6.1% +5.3%Iowa 6 Dem hold 816.4 727.9 19.6 1,563.9 52.2% 46.5% +5.7% 54.0% 44.7% -1.8% +1.9%Kansas 6 Rep hold 427.9 678.7 24.6 1,131.2 37.8% 60.0% -22.2% 41.4% 56.8% -3.6% +3.2%Kentucky 8 Rep hold 679.3 1,087.1 30.3 1,796.7 37.8% 60.5% -22.7% 41.1% 57.5% -3.3% +3.0%Louisiana 8 Rep hold 808.5 1,152.5 27.6 1,988.6 40.7% 58.0% -17.3% 39.9% 58.6% +0.8% -0.7%Maine 4 Dem hold 397.8 290.4 22.5 710.7 56.0% 40.9% +15.1% 57.6% 40.5% -1.7% +0.4%Maryland 10 Dem hold 1,527.7 905.0 43.3 2,476.0 61.7% 36.6% +25.2% 61.4% 37.3% +0.3% -0.7%Massachusetts 11 Dem hold 1,900.6 1,177.4 50.2 3,128.1 60.8% 37.6% +23.1% 62.0% 36.2% -1.3% +1.4%Michigan 16 Dem hold 2,561.9 2,112.7 43.1 4,717.7 54.3% 44.8% +9.5% 57.4% 40.9% -3.1% +3.8%Minnesota 10 Dem hold 1,547.7 1,321.6 59.7 2,928.9 52.8% 45.1% +7.7% 54.2% 44.0% -1.4% +1.2%Mississippi 6 Rep hold 528.3 674.3 10.4 1,213.0 43.5% 55.6% -12.0% 42.7% 56.4% +0.8% -0.8%

Votes (000s) Obama lead

% vote Change since 20082008 % shares

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State ECVs Result Obama Romney Other Total Obama Romney Obama McCain Dem Rep

Missouri 10 Rep hold 1,215.0 1,479.0 50.9 2,744.9 44.3% 53.9% -9.6% 49.3% 49.5% -5.0% +4.4%Montana 3 Rep hold 200.5 265.0 2.0 467.5 42.9% 56.7% -13.8% 47.2% 49.7% -4.3% +7.0%Nebraska 5 Rep hold 289.2 463.0 13.0 765.1 37.8% 60.5% -22.7% 41.2% 57.3% -3.4% +3.2%Nevada 6 Dem hold 528.8 462.4 19.9 1,011.1 52.3% 45.7% +6.6% 55.1% 42.7% -2.8% +3.0%New Hampshire 4 Dem hold 368.5 327.9 9.5 705.9 52.2% 46.4% +5.8% 54.3% 44.8% -2.1% +1.7%New Jersey 14 Dem hold 1,960.7 1,383.2 34.8 3,378.8 58.0% 40.9% +17.1% 56.8% 42.1% +1.2% -1.2%New Mexico 5 Dem hold 408.3 331.9 31.1 771.4 52.9% 43.0% +9.9% 56.7% 42.0% -3.8% +1.1%New York 29 Dem hold 3,875.8 2,226.6 84.4 6,186.9 62.6% 36.0% +26.7% 62.2% 36.7% +0.5% -0.7%North Carolina 15 Rep gain 2,178.4 2,275.9 44.8 4,499.0 48.4% 50.6% -2.2% 49.9% 49.5% -1.4% +1.0%North Dakota 3 Rep hold 124.5 187.6 7.7 319.8 38.9% 58.7% -19.7% 44.7% 53.3% -5.7% +5.3%Ohio 18 Dem hold 2,697.3 2,593.8 77.3 5,368.3 50.2% 48.3% +1.9% 51.2% 47.2% -0.9% +1.1%Oklahoma 7 Rep hold 442.6 889.4 0.0 1,332.0 33.2% 66.8% -33.5% 34.4% 65.6% -1.1% +1.1%Oregon 7 Dem hold 932.5 732.3 49.0 1,713.7 54.4% 42.7% +11.7% 57.1% 40.8% -2.7% +1.9%Pennsylvania 20 Dem hold 2,907.4 2,619.6 69.5 5,596.5 52.0% 46.8% +5.1% 54.7% 44.3% -2.7% +2.5%Rhode Island 4 Dem hold 274.3 155.4 7.7 437.4 62.7% 35.5% +27.2% 63.1% 35.3% -0.3% +0.2%South Carolina 9 Rep hold 845.8 1,049.5 26.1 1,921.4 44.0% 54.6% -10.6% 45.0% 53.8% -0.9% +0.8%South Dakota 3 Rep hold 145.0 210.5 8.2 363.7 39.9% 57.9% -18.0% 44.7% 53.2% -4.9% +4.7%Tennessee 11 Rep hold 953.0 1,453.1 36.7 2,442.8 39.0% 59.5% -20.5% 41.8% 56.9% -2.8% +2.6%Texas 38 Rep hold 3,294.4 4,555.8 112.6 7,962.8 41.4% 57.2% -15.8% 43.8% 55.5% -2.4% +1.7%Utah 6 Rep hold 229.5 671.7 19.2 920.4 24.9% 73.0% -48.1% 34.2% 62.9% -9.2% +10.1%Vermont 3 Dem hold 199.3 92.7 5.3 297.3 67.0% 31.2% +35.8% 66.8% 31.6% +0.3% -0.4%Virginia 13 Dem hold 1,905.5 1,789.6 52.7 3,747.9 50.8% 47.8% +3.1% 52.3% 46.8% -1.5% +1.0%Washington 12 Dem hold 1,588.3 1,183.6 68.4 2,840.3 55.9% 41.7% +14.2% 57.5% 40.7% -1.5% +0.9%West Virginia 5 Rep hold 234.9 412.4 14.3 661.6 35.5% 62.3% -26.8% 42.6% 55.7% -7.1% +6.6%Wisconsin 10 Dem hold 1,614.0 1,408.7 37.0 3,059.7 52.7% 46.0% +6.7% 56.3% 42.4% -3.6% +3.6%Wyoming 3 Rep hold 68.8 170.3 6.7 245.8 28.0% 69.3% -41.3% 32.7% 65.2% -4.7% +4.1%

United States 538 62,281.0 58,899.1 1,903.6 123,083.7 50.6% 47.9% +2.7% 52.9% 45.7% -2.3% +2.2%

Change since 2008Votes (000s) % vote Obama lead

2008 % shares

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2. APPENDIX 2

US Senate Elections 2012: results by state

State R e su lt Candidate Votes % vote Candidate Votes % vote Votes % vote Total

Arizona Rep Hold Richard Carmona 797,019 45.6% Jeff Flake 875,794 50.1% 76,679 4.4% 1,749,492California D Dem Hold Dianne Feinstein 5,669,691 61.3% Elizabeth Emkin 3,575,941 38.7% 0 0.0% 9,245,632Connecticut d Dem Hold Chris Murphy 815,077 55.2% Linda McMahon 637,857 43.2% 24,883 1.7% 1,477,817Delaware d Dem Hold Tom Carper 265,374 66.4% Kevin Wade 115,694 29.0% 18,491 4.6% 399,559Florida d Dem Hold Bill Nelson 4,453,341 55.1% Connie McGillicuddy 3,420,084 42.3% 205,839 2.5% 8,079,264Hawaii d Dem Hold Maizie Hirono 2,666,435 94.4% Linda Lingle 159,002 5.6% 0 0.0% 2,825,437Indiana Dem Gain Joe Donnelly 1,268,407 49.9% Richard Mourdock 1,126,832 44.3% 146,435 5.8% 2,541,674Maine Ind Gain Cynthia Dill 91,964 13.2% Charlie Summers 213,644 30.7% 391,250 a 56.1% 696,858Maryland d Dem Hold Ben Cardin 1,335,706 55.3% Dan Bongino 642,443 26.6% 439,130 18.2% 2,417,279Massachusetts Dem Gain Elizabeth Warren 1,678,408 53.7% Scott Brown 1,449,180 46.3% 0 0.0% 3,127,588Michigan d Dem Hold Debbie Stabenow 2,732,886 58.8% Peter Hoekstra 1,765,548 38.0% 149,615 3.2% 4,648,049Minnesota d Dem Hold Amy Klobuchar 1,856,196 65.3% Kurt Bills 868,977 30.6% 118,227 4.2% 2,843,400Mississippi Rep Hold Albert Gore 470,902 41.3% Roger Wicker 669,261 58.7% 0 0.0% 1,140,163Missouri d Dem Hold Claire McCaskill 1,484,683 54.7% Todd Akin 1,063,698 39.2% 164,991 6.1% 2,713,372Montana d Dem Hold Jon Tester 234,465 48.7% Denny Rehberg 215,701 44.8% 31,287 6.5% 481,453Nebraska d Dem Hold Bob Kerrey 318,930 41.8% Deb Fischer 444,319 58.2% 0 0.0% 763,249Nevada Rep Hold Shelley Berkley 444,337 44.7% Dean Heller 456,471 45.9% 93,436 9.4% 994,244New Jersey d Dem Hold Bob Menendez 1,828,417 58.5% Joseph Kyrillos 1,244,734 39.8% 53,709 1.7% 3,126,860New Mexico d Dem Hold Martin Heinrich 389,274 51.0% Heather Wilson 346,938 45.4% 27,710 3.6% 763,922New York d Dem Hold Kirsten Gillibrand 4,212,518 71.9% Wendy Long 1,561,893 26.7% 85,085 1.5% 5,859,496North Dakota d Dem Hold Heidi Heitkamp 160,752 50.5% Rick Berg 157,578 49.5% 0 0.0% 318,330Ohio d Dem Hold Sherrod Brown 2,645,901 50.3% Josh Mandel 2,371,230 45.1% 241,102 4.6% 5,258,233Pennsylvania d Dem Hold Bob Casey 2,943,289 53.6% Tom Smith 2,453,730 44.7% 94,362 1.7% 5,491,381Rhode Island d Dem Hold Sheldon Whitehous 265,687 64.8% Barry Hinckley 144,620 35.2% 0 0.0% 410,307Tennessee Rep Hold Mark Clayton 700,753 30.4% Bob Corker 1,496,668 64.9% 106,920 4.6% 2,304,341

Democrat Republican Others

41

RP 12/69

42

State Result Candidate Votes % vote Candidate Votes % vote Votes % vote Total

Texas Rep Hold Paul Sadler 3,183,314 40.5% Ted Cruz 4,456,599 56.6% 229,253 2.9% 7,869,166Utah Rep Hold Scott Howell 275,880 31.2% Orrin Hatch 595,972 67.5% 10,966 1.2% 882,818Vermont d Dem Hold Bernie Sanders* 208,253 66.2% John MacGovern 72,629 23.1% 33,568 10.7% 314,450Virginia d Dem Hold Tim Kaine 1,944,992 52.5% George Allen 1,758,857 47.5% 0 0.0% 3,703,849Washington d Dem Hold Maria Cantwell 1,679,573 60.2% Michael Baumgartne 1,109,800 39.8% 0 0.0% 2,789,373West Virginia d Dem Hold Joe Manchin 394,532 60.5% John Raese 237,825 36.5% 19,231 3.0% 651,588Wisconsin d Dem Hold Tammy Baldwin 1,544,274 51.5% Tommy Thompson 1,377,253 45.9% 78,235 2.6% 2,999,762Wyoming Rep Hold Tim Chesnut 52,596 21.6% John Barrasso 184,531 75.9% 6,138 2.5% 243,265

* Senator Bernie Sanders is an Independent, but caucases with the Democrats. No official Democrat candidate ran in Vermont.a Angus King (Independent) won Maine with 368,160 votes (52.8%)

Democrat Republican Others

RP 12/69

3. APPENDIX 3

US House of Representatives Elections 2012: full results by district

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

AlabamaDistrict 1 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%District 2 1 102,836 180,339 283,175 36.3% 63.7% 0.0%District 3 1 97,868 174,931 272,799 35.9% 64.1% 0.0%District 4 1 69,427 197,736 267,163 26.0% 74.0% 0.0%District 5 1 101,504 188,833 290,337 35.0% 65.0% 0.0%District 6 1 86,698 215,966 302,664 28.6% 71.4% 0.0%District 7 2 230,077 73,292 303,369 75.8% 24.2% 0.0% Total 688,410 1,031,098 1,719,508 40.0% 60.0% 0.0%

AlaskaAt large 1 62,013 141,276 15,109 218,398 28.4% 64.7% 6.9%

ArizonaDistrict 1 2 110,458 104,209 13,447 228,114 48.4% 45.7% 5.9%District 2 132,750 132,420 265,170 50.1% 49.9% 0.0%District 3 2 82,709 54,127 6,275 143,111 57.8% 37.8% 4.4%District 4 1 63,261 149,833 10,456 223,550 28.3% 67.0% 4.7%District 5 1 73,182 153,216 226,398 32.3% 67.7% 0.0%District 6 1 81,194 150,987 12,526 244,707 33.2% 61.7% 5.1%District 7 2 81,781 19,346 101,127 80.9% 0.0% 19.1%District 8 1 79,924 145,719 3,482 229,125 34.9% 63.6% 1.5%District 9 2 100,486 94,697 13,307 208,490 48.2% 45.4% 6.4% Total 805,745 985,208 78,839 1,869,792 43.1% 52.7% 4.2%

ArkansasDistrict 1 1 95,244 137,668 11,346 244,258 39.0% 56.4% 4.6%District 2 1 112,934 157,978 15,231 286,143 39.5% 55.2% 5.3%District 3 1 0 179,732 57,360 237,092 0.0% 75.8% 24.2%District 4 1 94,505 153,096 9,919 257,520 36.7% 59.5% 3.9% Total 302,683 628,474 93,856 1,025,013 29.5% 61.3% 9.2%

CaliforniaDistrict 1 1 93,415 128,316 221,731 42.1% 57.9% 0.0%District 2 2 169,637 71,258 240,895 70.4% 29.6% 0.0%District 3 2 105,044 89,724 194,768 53.9% 46.1% 0.0%District 4 1 105,496 166,291 271,787 38.8% 61.2% 0.0%District 5 2 157,185 54,656 211,841 74.2% 25.8% 0.0%District 6 2 120,332 41,267 161,599 74.5% 25.5% 0.0%District 7 105,245 103,466 208,711 50.4% 49.6% 0.0%District 8 1 95,962 70,608 166,570 0.0% 57.6% 42.4%District 9 2 86,128 73,103 159,231 54.1% 45.9% 0.0%District 10 1 85,329 99,077 184,406 46.3% 53.7% 0.0%District 11 2 161,611 71,934 233,545 69.2% 30.8% 0.0%District 12 2 196,932 35,285 232,217 84.8% 15.2% 0.0%District 13 2 200,086 31,595 231,681 86.4% 0.0% 13.6%District 14 2 148,973 52,063 201,036 74.1% 25.9% 0.0%District 15 2 107,855 96,790 204,645 52.7% 0.0% 47.3%District 16 2 60,535 49,421 109,956 55.1% 44.9% 0.0%District 17 2 142,806 52,039 194,845 73.3% 26.7% 0.0%District 18 2 185,882 79,014 264,896 70.2% 29.8% 0.0%District 19 2 147,918 54,986 202,904 72.9% 27.1% 0.0%District 20 2 113,536 42,325 155,861 72.8% 27.2% 0.0%District 21 1 34,161 51,309 85,470 40.0% 60.0% 0.0%District 22 1 59,036 99,973 159,009 37.1% 62.9% 0.0%District 23 1 123,689 43,969 167,658 0.0% 73.8% 26.2%District 24 2 133,386 108,148 241,534 55.2% 44.8% 0.0%District 25 1 83,859 104,351 188,210 44.6% 55.4% 0.0%

Share of voteVotes

43

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

District 26 2 112,382 104,266 216,648 51.9% 48.1% 0.0%District 27 2 122,369 71,533 193,902 63.1% 36.9% 0.0%District 28 2 146,018 46,539 192,557 75.8% 24.2% 0.0%District 29 2 85,385 29,846 115,231 74.1% 0.0% 25.9%District 30 2 111,914 72,979 184,893 60.5% 0.0% 39.5%District 31 1 82,212 66,603 148,815 0.0% 55.2% 44.8%District 32 2 98,890 53,159 152,049 65.0% 35.0% 0.0%District 33 2 132,151 115,387 247,538 53.4% 0.0% 46.6%District 34 2 91,329 15,365 106,694 85.6% 14.4% 0.0%District 35 2 71,299 56,388 127,687 55.8% 0.0% 44.2%District 36 2 98,843 91,507 190,350 51.9% 48.1% 0.0%District 37 2 154,562 24,378 178,940 86.4% 13.6% 0.0%District 38 2 114,832 57,116 171,948 66.8% 33.2% 0.0%District 39 1 90,162 130,559 220,721 40.8% 59.2% 0.0%District 40 2 59,162 40,291 99,453 59.5% 0.0% 40.5%District 41 2 89,599 65,990 155,589 57.6% 42.4% 0.0%District 42 1 74,776 117,407 192,183 38.9% 61.1% 0.0%District 43 2 108,747 45,614 154,361 70.4% 0.0% 29.6%District 44 2 77,441 51,727 129,168 60.0% 0.0% 40.0%District 45 1 108,500 156,770 265,270 40.9% 59.1% 0.0%District 46 2 75,003 47,532 122,535 61.2% 38.8% 0.0%District 47 2 102,578 84,202 186,780 54.9% 45.1% 0.0%District 48 1 100,676 161,011 261,687 38.5% 61.5% 0.0%District 49 1 88,314 127,278 215,592 41.0% 59.0% 0.0%District 50 1 62,573 134,695 197,268 31.7% 68.3% 0.0%District 51 2 77,799 33,641 111,440 69.8% 30.2% 0.0%District 52 2 110,825 109,491 220,316 50.3% 49.7% 0.0%District 53 2 118,673 77,563 196,236 60.5% 39.5% 0.0% Total 5,489,189 3,639,871 721,797 9,850,857 55.7% 36.9% 7.3%

ColoradoDistrict 1 2 225,138 89,297 16,045 330,480 68.1% 27.0% 4.9%District 2 2 222,367 153,305 21,722 397,394 56.0% 38.6% 5.5%District 3 1 138,242 179,745 18,296 336,283 41.1% 53.5% 5.4%District 4 1 118,920 189,757 15,199 323,876 36.7% 58.6% 4.7%District 5 1 191,198 101,791 292,989 0.0% 65.3% 34.7%District 6 1 139,439 150,587 19,366 309,392 45.1% 48.7% 6.3%District 7 2 171,874 132,727 17,921 322,522 53.3% 41.2% 5.6% Total 844,106 953,889 192,419 1,990,414 42.4% 47.9% 9.7%

ConnecticutDistrict 1 2 203,159 81,246 7,657 292,062 69.6% 27.8% 2.6%District 2 2 204,490 87,715 7,165 299,370 68.3% 29.3% 2.4%District 3 2 215,702 73,633 289,335 74.6% 25.4% 0.0%District 4 2 171,403 115,052 286,455 59.8% 40.2% 0.0%District 5 2 142,912 134,489 277,401 51.5% 48.5% 0.0% Total 937,666 492,135 14,822 1,444,623 64.9% 34.1% 1.0%

DelawareAt large 2 249,905 129,749 8,369 388,023 64.4% 33.4% 2.2%

FloridaDistrict 1 1 92,907 238,363 11,165 342,435 27.1% 69.6% 3.3%District 2 1 157,599 175,842 333,441 47.3% 52.7% 0.0%District 3 1 102,427 204,285 8,866 315,578 32.5% 64.7% 2.8%District 4 1 75,229 239,953 315,182 23.9% 76.1% 0.0%District 5 2 190,650 70,766 7,986 269,402 70.8% 26.3% 3.0%District 6 1 146,447 195,933 342,380 42.8% 57.2% 0.0%District 7 1 130,509 185,569 316,078 41.3% 58.7% 0.0%District 8 1 130,808 205,357 12,600 348,765 37.5% 58.9% 3.6%District 9 2 165,098 98,984 264,082 62.5% 37.5% 0.0%District 10 2 164,873 153,646 318,519 51.8% 48.2% 0.0%

Votes Share of vote

44

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

District 11 1 120,253 218,315 338,568 35.5% 64.5% 0.0%District 12 1 108,663 209,484 11,779 329,926 32.9% 63.5% 3.6%District 13 1 139,671 189,552 329,223 42.4% 57.6% 0.0%District 14 2 196,993 83,385 280,378 70.3% 29.7% 0.0%District 15 1 0 1 0 1 0.0% 100.0% 0District 16 1 161,875 187,123 348,998 46.4% 53.6% 0.0%District 17 1 116,730 165,439 282,169 41.4% 58.6% 0.0%District 18 166,890 164,448 331,338 50.4% 49.6% 0.0%District 19 1 109,685 189,771 6,630 306,086 35.8% 62.0% 2.2%District 20 2 214,245 29,481 243,726 87.9% 0.0% 12.1%District 21 2 221,188 63,122 284,310 77.8% 0.0% 22.2%District 22 2 170,899 141,946 312,845 54.6% 45.4% 0.0%District 23 2 174,071 98,024 3,124 275,219 63.2% 35.6% 1.1%District 24 2 1 0 0 1 100.0% 0.0% 0District 25 1 151,361 48,709 200,070 0.0% 75.7% 24.3%District 26 2 135,551 108,737 8,436 252,724 53.6% 43.0% 3.3%District 27 1 84,899 138,345 6,653 229,897 36.9% 60.2% 2.9%

Total 3,393,262 3,676,284 211,898 7,281,444 46.6% 50.5% 2.9%

GeorgiaDistrict 1 1 92,173 156,958 249,131 37.0% 63.0% 0.0%District 2 2 162,244 92,275 254,519 63.7% 36.3% 0.0%District 3 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%District 4 2 208,395 74,909 283,304 73.6% 26.4% 0.0%District 5 2 230,271 42,751 273,022 84.3% 15.7% 0.0%District 6 1 102,914 187,299 290,213 35.5% 64.5% 0.0%District 7 1 95,056 156,484 251,540 37.8% 62.2% 0.0%District 8 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%District 9 1 59,449 190,456 249,905 23.8% 76.2% 0.0%District 10 1 0 1 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%District 11 1 89,892 196,512 286,404 31.4% 68.6% 0.0%District 12 2 138,965 119,857 258,822 53.7% 46.3% 0.0%District 13 2 200,670 79,201 279,871 71.7% 28.3% 0.0%District 14 1 59,098 159,698 218,796 27.0% 73.0% 0.0% Total 1,439,127 1,456,403 0 2,895,530 49.7% 50.3% 0.0%

HawaiiDistrict 1 2 114,756 95,431 210,187 54.6% 45.4% 0.0%District 2 2 167,085 40,285 207,370 80.6% 19.4% 0.0% Total 281,841 135,716 0 417,557 67.5% 32.5% 0.0%

IdahoDistrict 1 1 97,403 199,445 19,864 316,712 30.8% 63.0% 6.3%District 2 1 110,817 207,244 318,061 34.8% 65.2% 0.0% Total 208,220 406,689 19,864 634,773 32.8% 64.1% 3.1%

IllinoisDistrict 1 2 225,098 79,947 305,045 73.8% 26.2% 0.0%District 2 2 181,067 67,396 38,733 287,196 63.0% 23.5% 13.5%District 3 2 160,925 74,357 235,282 68.4% 31.6% 0.0%District 4 2 128,385 25,749 154,134 83.3% 16.7% 0.0%District 5 2 168,530 73,860 1,455 243,845 69.1% 30.3% 0.6%District 6 1 131,548 191,255 322,803 40.8% 59.2% 0.0%District 7 2 224,377 29,164 11,550 265,091 84.6% 11.0% 4.4%District 8 2 121,298 100,360 221,658 54.7% 45.3% 0.0%District 9 2 179,468 91,842 271,310 66.1% 33.9% 0.0%District 10 2 130,941 128,423 259,364 50.5% 49.5% 0.0%District 11 2 139,860 101,010 240,870 58.1% 41.9% 0.0%District 12 2 154,621 128,582 16,747 299,950 51.5% 42.9% 5.6%District 13 1 135,309 136,596 21,241 293,146 46.2% 46.6% 7.2%District 14 1 123,724 176,426 300,150 41.2% 58.8% 0.0%District 15 1 92,067 203,500 295,567 31.1% 68.9% 0.0%District 16 1 110,828 179,867 290,695 38.1% 61.9% 0.0%District 17 2 148,229 129,970 278,199 53.3% 46.7% 0.0%District 18 1 84,544 243,295 327,839 25.8% 74.2% 0.0% Total 2,640,819 2,161,599 89,726 4,892,144 54.0% 44.2% 1.8%

Votes Share of vote

.0%

.0%

45

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

IndianaDistrict 1 2 187,347 91,072 278,419 67.3% 32.7% 0.0%District 2 1 129,977 133,806 9,313 273,096 47.6% 49.0% 3.4%District 3 1 92,179 187,610 279,789 32.9% 67.1% 0.0%District 4 1 92,974 168,510 10,553 272,037 34.2% 61.9% 3.9%District 5 1 125,229 194,446 13,429 333,104 37.6% 58.4% 4.0%District 6 1 96,627 162,519 15,954 275,100 35.1% 59.1% 5.8%District 7 2 161,424 95,524 256,948 62.8% 37.2% 0.0%District 8 1 122,245 151,416 10,125 283,786 43.1% 53.4% 3.6%District 9 1 122,189 157,689 279,878 43.7% 56.3% 0.0% Total 1,130,191 1,342,592 59,374 2,532,157 44.6% 53.0% 2.3%

IowaDistrict 1 2 220,795 161,864 5,671 388,330 56.9% 41.7% 1.5%District 2 2 209,551 160,717 8,238 378,506 55.4% 42.5% 2.2%District 3 1 167,965 201,457 15,580 385,002 43.6% 52.3% 4.0%District 4 1 168,323 200,831 8,067 377,221 44.6% 53.2% 2.1% Total 766,634 724,869 37,556 1,529,059 50.1% 47.4% 2.5%

KansasDistrict 1 1 0 1 0 1 0.0% 100.0% 0District 2 1 110,075 161,476 11,956 283,507 38.8% 57.0% 4.2%District 3 1 197,266 90,391 287,657 0.0% 68.6% 31.4%District 4 1 79,480 158,212 15,587 253,279 31.4% 62.5% 6.2% Total 189,555 516,955 117,934 824,444 23.0% 62.7% 14.3%

KentuckyDistrict 1 1 87,196 199,951 287,147 30.4% 69.6% 0.0%District 2 1 89,541 181,507 11,218 282,266 31.7% 64.3% 4.0%District 3 2 206,368 111,446 4,819 322,633 64.0% 34.5% 1.5%District 4 1 104,730 186,026 8,673 299,429 35.0% 62.1% 2.9%District 5 1 54,181 194,483 248,664 21.8% 78.2% 0.0%District 6 1 141,436 153,221 8,340 302,997 46.7% 50.6% 2.8% Total 683,452 1,026,634 33,050 1,743,136 39.2% 58.9% 1.9%

LouisianaDistrict 1 1 61,920 193,331 35,145 290,396 21.3% 66.6% 12.1%District 2 2 158,184 38,748 89,868 286,800 55.2% 13.5% 31.3%District 3 1 67,058 139,113 105,195 311,366 21.5% 44.7% 33.8%District 4 1 187,783 61,586 249,369 0.0% 75.3% 24.7%District 5 1 203,483 58,154 261,637 0.0% 77.8% 22.2%District 6 1 243,594 63,214 306,808 0.0% 79.4% 20.6% Total 287,162 1,006,052 413,162 1,706,376 16.8% 59.0% 24.2%

MaineDistrict 1 2 233,616 127,304 360,920 64.7% 35.3% 0.0%District 2 2 189,407 136,328 325,735 58.1% 41.9% 0.0% Total 423,023 263,632 0 686,655 61.6% 38.4% 0.0%

MarylandDistrict 1 1 85,468 202,130 11,939 299,537 28.5% 67.5% 4.0%District 2 2 181,272 86,856 8,750 276,878 65.5% 31.4% 3.2%District 3 2 196,111 87,847 10,342 294,300 66.6% 29.8% 3.5%District 4 2 220,344 59,882 5,736 285,962 77.1% 20.9% 2.0%District 5 2 211,816 119,768 8,870 340,454 62.2% 35.2% 2.6%District 6 2 167,481 108,855 9,259 285,595 58.6% 38.1% 3.2%District 7 2 226,692 62,593 7,628 296,913 76.3% 21.1% 2.6%District 8 2 192,711 104,391 11,122 308,224 62.5% 33.9% 3.6% Total 1,481,895 832,322 73,646 2,387,863 62.1% 34.9% 3.1%

MassachusettsDistrict 1 2 1 0 0 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0

Votes Share of vote

.0%

%

46

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

District 2 2 1 0 0 1 100.0% 0.0% 0District 3 2 210,833 108,868 319,701 65.9% 34.1% 0.0%District 4 2 219,499 129,243 10,674 359,416 61.1% 36.0% 3.0%District 5 2 254,128 82,286 336,414 75.5% 24.5% 0.0%District 6 2 179,603 175,953 16,668 372,224 48.3% 47.3% 4.5%District 7 2 206,424 40,438 246,862 83.6% 0.0% 16.4%District 8 2 262,565 81,733 344,298 76.3% 23.7% 0.0%District 9 2 211,051 115,541 326,592 64.6% 35.4% 0.0% Total 1,544,104 693,624 67,780 2,305,508 67.0% 30.1% 2.9%

MichiganDistrict 1 1 164,536 166,833 15,073 346,442 47.5% 48.2% 4.4%District 2 1 108,644 193,646 14,645 316,935 34.3% 61.1% 4.6%District 3 1 145,117 173,529 10,587 329,233 44.1% 52.7% 3.2%District 4 1 104,601 196,835 10,594 312,030 33.5% 63.1% 3.4%District 5 2 213,303 103,001 11,636 327,940 65.0% 31.4% 3.5%District 6 1 135,793 173,301 7,900 316,994 42.8% 54.7% 2.5%District 7 1 136,508 169,184 11,541 317,233 43.0% 53.3% 3.6%District 8 1 128,622 202,126 14,173 344,921 37.3% 58.6% 4.1%District 9 2 208,834 114,746 13,708 337,288 61.9% 34.0% 4.1%District 10 1 98,058 226,151 4,796 329,005 29.8% 68.7% 1.5%District 11 1 158,889 181,796 17,461 358,146 44.4% 50.8% 4.9%District 12 2 216,537 92,305 9,867 318,709 67.9% 29.0% 3.1%District 13 2 235,258 38,765 10,165 284,188 82.8% 13.6% 3.6%District 14 2 270,184 51,395 6,945 328,524 82.2% 15.6% 2.1% Total 2,324,884 2,083,613 159,091 4,567,588 50.9% 45.6% 3.5%

MinnesotaDistrict 1 2 193,209 142,159 335,368 57.6% 42.4% 0.0%District 2 1 164,335 193,586 357,921 45.9% 54.1% 0.0%District 3 1 159,936 222,333 382,269 41.8% 58.2% 0.0%District 4 2 216,680 109,656 21,132 347,468 62.4% 31.6% 6.1%District 5 2 262,101 88,753 350,854 74.7% 25.3% 0.0%District 6 1 175,923 180,131 356,054 49.4% 50.6% 0.0%District 7 2 197,540 114,102 15,294 326,936 60.4% 34.9% 4.7%District 8 2 192,748 161,113 353,861 54.5% 45.5% 0.0% Total 1,562,472 1,211,833 36,426 2,810,731 55.6% 43.1% 1.3%

MississippiDistrict 1 1 107,938 178,594 7,921 294,453 36.7% 60.7% 2.7%District 2 2 199,554 90,861 5,741 296,156 67.4% 30.7% 1.9%District 3 1 223,596 55,703 279,299 0.0% 80.1% 19.9%District 4 1 77,041 173,576 19,274 269,891 28.5% 64.3% 7.1% Total 384,533 666,627 88,639 1,139,799 33.7% 58.5% 7.8%

MissouriDistrict 1 2 264,836 60,306 11,725 336,867 78.6% 17.9% 3.5%District 2 1 145,257 235,607 11,144 392,008 37.1% 60.1% 2.8%District 3 1 111,116 214,660 12,343 338,119 32.9% 63.5% 3.7%District 4 1 113,044 192,166 13,352 318,562 35.5% 60.3% 4.2%District 5 2 196,467 121,437 8,432 326,336 60.2% 37.2% 2.6%District 6 1 108,414 216,721 8,269 333,404 32.5% 65.0% 2.5%District 7 1 98,384 203,358 16,656 318,398 30.9% 63.9% 5.2%District 8 1 73,720 215,975 10,544 300,239 24.6% 71.9% 3.5% Total 1,111,238 1,460,230 92,465 2,663,933 41.7% 54.8% 3.5%

MontanaAt large 1 203,748 252,707 18,933 475,388 42.9% 53.2% 4.0%

Votes Share of vote

.0%

47

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

NebraskaDistrict 1 1 78,732 171,385 250,117 31.5% 68.5% 0.0%District 2 1 121,165 127,119 248,284 48.8% 51.2% 0.0%District 3 1 64,257 184,978 249,235 25.8% 74.2% 0.0% Total 264,154 483,482 0 747,636 35.3% 64.7% 0.0%

NevadaDistrict 1 2 113,377 56,357 8,734 178,468 63.5% 31.6% 4.9%District 2 1 101,594 161,915 17,088 280,597 36.2% 57.7% 6.1%District 3 1 116,385 136,905 18,367 271,657 42.8% 50.4% 6.8%District 4 2 120,096 101,136 18,684 239,916 50.1% 42.2% 7.8% Total 451,452 456,313 62,873 970,638 46.5% 47.0% 6.5%

New HampshireDistrict 1 2 171,356 158,482 14,968 344,806 49.7% 46.0% 4.3%District 2 2 168,954 151,858 15,779 336,591 50.2% 45.1% 4.7% Total 340,310 310,340 30,747 681,397 49.9% 45.5% 4.5%

New JerseyDistrict 1 2 194,303 86,820 5,059 286,182 67.9% 30.3% 1.8%District 2 1 108,288 156,799 4,642 269,729 40.1% 58.1% 1.7%District 3 1 134,599 161,452 3,547 299,598 44.9% 53.9% 1.2%District 4 1 86,380 189,548 2,966 278,894 31.0% 68.0% 1.1%District 5 1 117,973 154,359 6,029 278,361 42.4% 55.5% 2.2%District 6 2 141,852 79,128 2,770 223,750 63.4% 35.4% 1.2%District 7 1 116,445 167,736 7,843 292,024 39.9% 57.4% 2.7%District 8 2 118,904 28,810 4,519 152,233 78.1% 18.9% 3.0%District 9 2 146,939 50,772 1,997 199,708 73.6% 25.4% 1.0%District 10 2 185,196 23,015 3,924 212,135 87.3% 10.8% 1.8%District 11 1 113,554 167,368 3,243 284,165 40.0% 58.9% 1.1%District 12 2 177,238 76,824 3,276 257,338 68.9% 29.9% 1.3% Total 1,641,671 1,342,631 49,815 3,034,117 54.1% 44.3% 1.6%

New MexicoDistrict 1 2 159,275 110,370 269,645 59.1% 40.9% 0.0%District 2 1 91,561 132,250 223,811 40.9% 59.1% 0.0%District 3 2 164,620 96,837 261,457 63.0% 37.0% 0.0% Total 415,456 339,457 0 754,913 55.0% 45.0% 0.0%

New YorkDistrict 1 2 132,525 121,478 254,003 52.2% 47.8% 0.0%District 2 1 92,060 131,091 223,151 41.3% 58.7% 0.0%District 3 2 136,687 99,183 1,806 237,676 57.5% 41.7% 0.8%District 4 2 138,561 72,673 13,243 224,477 61.7% 32.4% 5.9%District 5 2 146,278 15,640 1,161 163,079 89.7% 9.6% 0.7%District 6 2 100,571 46,305 1,729 148,605 67.7% 31.2% 1.2%District 7 2 116,873 6,823 123,696 94.5% 5.5% 0.0%District 8 2 159,463 15,546 2,098 177,107 90.0% 8.8% 1.2%District 9 2 165,201 21,984 2,700 189,885 87.0% 11.6% 1.4%District 10 2 145,381 34,848 180,229 80.7% 19.3% 0.0%District 11 1 82,401 94,102 1,782 178,285 46.2% 52.8% 1.0%District 12 2 158,834 37,580 196,414 80.9% 19.1% 0.0%District 13 2 152,592 10,546 4,874 168,012 90.8% 6.3% 2.9%District 14 2 108,436 19,934 2,322 130,692 83.0% 15.3% 1.8%District 15 2 132,505 3,983 136,488 97.1% 2.9% 0.0%District 16 2 137,213 37,860 2,052 177,125 77.5% 21.4% 1.2%District 17 2 139,876 75,736 2,164 217,776 64.2% 34.8% 1.0%District 18 2 130,462 121,911 252,373 51.7% 48.3% 0.0%District 19 1 120,661 138,657 259,318 46.5% 53.5% 0.0%District 20 2 188,055 86,740 274,795 68.4% 31.6% 0.0%District 21 2 115,883 110,804 3,683 230,370 50.3% 48.1% 1.6%District 22 1 93,681 146,055 239,736 39.1% 60.9% 0.0%District 23 1 117,055 126,519 243,574 48.1% 51.9% 0.0%District 24 2 130,969 118,578 21,327 270,874 48.4% 43.8% 7.9%

Votes Share of vote

48

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

District 25 2 166,342 124,585 290,927 57.2% 42.8% 0.0%District 26 2 197,799 67,209 265,008 74.6% 25.4% 0.0%District 27 1 146,134 150,446 296,580 49.3% 50.7% 0.0% Total 3,652,498 2,036,816 60,941 5,750,255 63.5% 35.4% 1.1%

North CarolinaDistrict 1 2 250,948 76,558 6,031 333,537 75.2% 23.0% 1.8%District 2 1 129,307 174,565 8,460 312,332 41.4% 55.9% 2.7%District 3 1 112,546 192,976 305,522 36.8% 63.2% 0.0%District 4 2 265,432 91,512 356,944 74.4% 25.6% 0.0%District 5 1 147,649 200,083 347,732 42.5% 57.5% 0.0%District 6 1 141,214 220,296 361,510 39.1% 60.9% 0.0%District 7 167,590 167,057 334,647 50.1% 49.9% 0.0%District 8 1 134,891 159,226 294,117 45.9% 54.1% 0.0%District 9 1 170,462 193,174 9,553 373,189 45.7% 51.8% 2.6%District 10 1 142,822 189,667 332,489 43.0% 57.0% 0.0%District 11 1 140,216 189,289 329,505 42.6% 57.4% 0.0%District 12 2 246,451 62,924 309,375 79.7% 20.3% 0.0%District 13 1 169,637 225,791 395,428 42.9% 57.1% 0.0% Total 2,219,165 2,143,118 24,044 4,386,327 50.6% 48.9% 0.5%

North DakotaAt large 1 131,396 172,905 10,215 314,516 41.8% 55.0% 3.2%

OhioDistrict 1 1 125,030 196,783 15,596 337,409 37.1% 58.3% 4.6%District 2 1 131,256 189,400 320,656 40.9% 59.1% 0.0%District 3 2 188,831 74,938 14,819 278,588 67.8% 26.9% 5.3%District 4 1 110,663 179,458 15,487 305,608 36.2% 58.7% 5.1%District 5 1 133,471 197,435 11,971 342,877 38.9% 57.6% 3.5%District 6 1 139,438 159,621 299,059 46.6% 53.4% 0.0%District 7 1 133,686 174,826 308,512 43.3% 56.7% 0.0%District 8 1 0 1 0 1 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%District 9 2 206,763 66,844 11,119 284,726 72.6% 23.5% 3.9%District 10 1 124,079 202,166 9,729 335,974 36.9% 60.2% 2.9%District 11 2 1 0 0 1 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%District 12 1 129,259 227,079 356,338 36.3% 63.7% 0.0%District 13 2 227,032 86,261 313,293 72.5% 27.5% 0.0%District 14 1 127,467 179,704 23,634 330,805 38.5% 54.3% 7.1%District 15 1 123,201 199,598 322,799 38.2% 61.8% 0.0%District 16 1 165,638 181,137 346,775 47.8% 52.2% 0.0% Total 2,065,815 2,315,251 102,355 4,483,421 46.1% 51.6% 2.3%

OklahomaDistrict 1 1 91,310 180,886 12,786 284,982 32.0% 63.5% 4.5%District 2 1 95,763 143,253 10,794 249,810 38.3% 57.3% 4.3%District 3 1 53,295 200,963 12,756 267,014 20.0% 75.3% 4.8%District 4 1 71,755 176,561 11,725 260,041 27.6% 67.9% 4.5%District 5 1 97,359 153,421 10,542 261,322 37.3% 58.7% 4.0% Total 409,482 855,084 58,603 1,323,169 30.9% 64.6% 4.4%

OregonDistrict 1 2 185,198 102,898 21,602 309,698 59.8% 33.2% 7.0%District 2 1 87,693 211,294 6,195 305,182 28.7% 69.2% 2.0%District 3 2 253,838 68,068 18,600 340,506 74.5% 20.0% 5.5%District 4 2 200,536 134,782 5,837 341,155 58.8% 39.5% 1.7%District 5 2 173,015 136,158 10,716 319,889 54.1% 42.6% 3.3% Total 900,280 653,200 62,950 1,616,430 55.7% 40.4% 3.9%

Votes Share of vote

49

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

PennsylvaniaDistrict 1 2 225,985 39,736 265,721 85.0% 15.0% 0.0%District 2 2 301,869 31,648 4,243 337,760 89.4% 9.4% 1.3%District 3 1 120,142 160,149 12,352 292,643 41.1% 54.7% 4.2%District 4 1 103,387 179,340 17,560 300,287 34.4% 59.7% 5.8%District 5 1 101,615 172,042 273,657 37.1% 62.9% 0.0%District 6 2 183,647 138,688 322,335 57.0% 43.0% 0.0%District 7 1 139,067 203,977 343,044 40.5% 59.5% 0.0%District 8 1 152,515 199,283 351,798 43.4% 56.6% 0.0%District 9 1 103,420 166,038 269,458 38.4% 61.6% 0.0%District 10 1 91,355 176,273 267,628 34.1% 65.9% 0.0%District 11 1 116,315 163,733 280,048 41.5% 58.5% 0.0%District 12 1 161,397 173,340 334,737 48.2% 51.8% 0.0%District 13 2 204,686 92,308 296,994 68.9% 31.1% 0.0%District 14 2 249,012 74,955 323,967 76.9% 23.1% 0.0%District 15 1 126,661 165,629 292,290 43.3% 56.7% 0.0%District 16 1 109,026 154,337 17,151 280,514 38.9% 55.0% 6.1%District 17 2 157,629 102,754 260,383 60.5% 39.5% 0.0%District 18 1 119,791 212,712 332,503 36.0% 64.0% 0.0% Total 2,767,519 2,606,942 51,306 5,425,767 51.0% 48.0% 0.9%

Rhode IslandDistrict 1 2 106,044 84,018 12,326 202,388 52.4% 41.5% 6.1%District 2 2 121,556 76,852 19,877 218,285 55.7% 35.2% 9.1% Total 227,600 160,870 32,203 420,673 54.1% 38.2% 7.7%

South CarolinaDistrict 1 1 100,351 176,738 6,250 283,339 35.4% 62.4% 2.2%District 2 1 0 1 0 1 0.0% 100.0% 0District 3 1 84,312 168,780 253,092 33.3% 66.7% 0.0%District 4 1 89,094 171,505 3,341 263,940 33.8% 65.0% 1.3%District 5 1 122,268 153,047 275,315 44.4% 55.6% 0.0%District 6 2 213,953 12,713 226,666 94.4% 0.0% 5.6%District 7 1 121,418 147,750 269,168 45.1% 54.9% 0.0% Total 731,396 817,821 22,304 1,571,521 46.5% 52.0% 1.4%

South DakotaAt large 1 153,725 207,581 361,306 42.5% 57.5% 0.0%

TennesseeDistrict 1 1 47,597 182,186 9,746 239,529 19.9% 76.1% 4.1%District 2 1 53,336 193,312 12,897 259,545 20.5% 74.5% 5.0%District 3 1 91,031 157,725 7,897 256,653 35.5% 61.5% 3.1%District 4 1 101,944 128,500 230,444 44.2% 55.8% 0.0%District 5 2 166,999 83,982 5,058 256,039 65.2% 32.8% 2.0%District 6 1 184,264 56,359 240,623 0.0% 76.6% 23.4%District 7 1 61,050 180,775 11,531 253,356 24.1% 71.4% 4.6%District 8 1 79,347 190,571 8,996 278,914 28.4% 68.3% 3.2%District 9 2 188,245 59,676 2,812 250,733 75.1% 23.8% 1.1% Total 789,549 1,360,991 115,296 2,265,836 34.8% 60.1% 5.1%

TexasDistrict 1 1 67,758 182,621 4,161 254,540 26.6% 71.7% 1.6%District 2 1 80,262 159,369 6,130 245,761 32.7% 64.8% 2.5%District 3 1 0 1 0 1 0.0% 100.0% 0District 4 1 60,124 182,416 7,246 249,786 24.1% 73.0% 2.9%District 5 1 69,025 134,005 4,957 207,987 33.2% 64.4% 2.4%District 6 1 97,933 144,892 6,858 249,683 39.2% 58.0% 2.7%District 7 1 85,253 142,477 6,465 234,195 36.4% 60.8% 2.8%District 8 1 50,077 191,254 5,851 247,182 20.3% 77.4% 2.4%District 9 2 143,850 36,073 3,342 183,265 78.5% 19.7% 1.8%District 10 1 95,316 159,391 8,497 263,204 36.2% 60.6% 3.2%District 11 1 41,842 177,166 6,283 225,291 18.6% 78.6% 2.8%

Votes Share of vote

.0%

.0%

50

RP 12/69

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

District 12 1 65,991 175,298 5,968 247,257 26.7% 70.9% 2.4%District 13 1 187,385 18,566 205,951 0.0% 91.0% 9.0%District 14 1 109,264 130,937 4,647 244,848 44.6% 53.5% 1.9%District 15 1 53,892 89,143 3,302 146,337 36.8% 60.9% 2.3%District 16 2 100,804 50,478 2,529 153,811 65.5% 32.8% 1.6%District 17 1 143,126 35,902 179,028 0.0% 79.9% 20.1%District 18 2 145,893 43,926 4,678 194,497 75.0% 22.6% 2.4%District 19 1 160,067 28,345 188,412 0.0% 85.0% 15.0%District 20 2 118,719 62,041 4,738 185,498 64.0% 33.4% 2.6%District 21 1 108,852 186,525 12,469 307,846 35.4% 60.6% 4.1%District 22 1 80,025 160,471 10,023 250,519 31.9% 64.1% 4.0%District 23 2 96,477 87,255 7,926 191,658 50.3% 45.5% 4.1%District 24 1 87,347 148,207 7,226 242,780 36.0% 61.0% 3.0%District 25 1 98,427 153,868 10,822 263,117 37.4% 58.5% 4.1%District 26 1 73,661 175,669 7,780 257,110 28.6% 68.3% 3.0%District 27 1 83,280 120,490 8,553 212,323 39.2% 56.7% 4.0%District 28 2 112,262 49,095 3,856 165,213 67.9% 29.7% 2.3%District 29 2 85,920 9,538 95,458 90.0% 0.0% 10.0%District 30 2 169,889 40,841 4,693 215,423 78.9% 19.0% 2.2%District 31 1 82,791 145,096 8,846 236,733 35.0% 61.3% 3.7%District 32 1 98,867 146,129 5,664 250,660 39.4% 58.3% 2.3%District 33 2 84,940 30,152 2,006 117,098 72.5% 25.7% 1.7%District 34 2 88,781 51,338 2,685 142,804 62.2% 35.9% 1.9%District 35 2 105,260 52,686 6,591 164,537 64.0% 32.0% 4.0%District 36 1 62,052 165,388 6,274 233,714 26.6% 70.8% 2.7% Total 2,904,834 4,265,276 283,417 7,453,527 39.0% 57.2% 3.8%

UtahDistrict 1 1 55,740 161,546 8,603 225,889 24.7% 71.5% 3.8%District 2 1 75,399 139,860 9,362 224,621 33.6% 62.3% 4.2%District 3 1 55,879 180,760 236,639 23.6% 76.4% 0.0%District 4 2 108,275 105,629 5,703 219,607 49.3% 48.1% 2.6% Total 295,293 587,795 23,668 906,756 32.6% 64.8% 2.6%

VermontAt large 2 209,271 67,511 13,678 290,460 72.0% 23.2% 4.7%

VirginiaDistrict 1 1 146,844 200,736 10,295 357,875 41.0% 56.1% 2.9%District 2 1 141,697 164,977 306,674 46.2% 53.8% 0.0%District 3 2 246,155 57,007 303,162 81.2% 18.8% 0.0%District 4 1 149,504 198,999 348,503 42.9% 57.1% 0.0%District 5 1 149,906 192,020 5,439 347,365 43.2% 55.3% 1.6%District 6 1 109,929 209,701 319,630 34.4% 65.6% 0.0%District 7 1 157,249 222,345 379,594 41.4% 58.6% 0.0%District 8 1 99,964 210,347 15,428 325,739 30.7% 64.6% 4.7%District 9 1 115,972 183,278 299,250 38.8% 61.2% 0.0%District 10 1 131,875 201,937 9,496 343,308 38.4% 58.8% 2.8%District 11 2 176,686 102,970 8,263 287,919 61.4% 35.8% 2.9% Total 1,625,781 1,944,317 48,921 3,619,019 44.9% 53.7% 1.4%

WashingtonDistrict 1 2 156,393 135,637 292,030 53.6% 46.4% 0.0%District 2 2 165,136 106,053 271,189 60.9% 39.1% 0.0%District 3 1 108,944 164,157 273,101 39.9% 60.1% 0.0%District 4 1 69,191 140,722 209,913 33.0% 67.0% 0.0%District 5 1 102,915 168,830 271,745 37.9% 62.1% 0.0%District 6 2 172,882 120,518 293,400 58.9% 41.1% 0.0%District 7 2 258,730 66,889 325,619 79.5% 20.5% 0.0%District 8 1 110,063 164,667 274,730 40.1% 59.9% 0.0%District 9 2 169,556 67,799 237,355 71.4% 28.6% 0.0%District 10 1 106,232 148,601 254,833 41.7% 58.3% 0.0% Total 1,420,042 1,283,873 0 2,703,915 52.5% 47.5% 0.0%

West VirginiaDistrict 1 1 78,474 130,783 209,257 37.5% 62.5% 0.0%District 2 1 67,965 156,920 224,885 30.2% 69.8% 0.0%District 3 2 107,302 91,602 198,904 53.9% 46.1% 0.0% Total 253,741 379,305 0 633,046 40.1% 59.9% 0.0%

Votes Share of vote

51

RP 12/69

52

Dem Rep Other Total Dem Rep Other

WisconsinDistrict 1 1 157,721 199,715 6,029 363,465 43.4% 54.9% 1.7%District 2 2 264,790 124,465 389,255 68.0% 32.0% 0.0%District 3 2 217,328 121,536 338,864 64.1% 35.9% 0.0%District 4 2 234,823 80,637 9,253 324,713 72.3% 24.8% 2.8%District 5 1 117,972 249,267 367,239 32.1% 67.9% 0.0%District 6 1 136,146 223,514 359,660 37.9% 62.1% 0.0%District 7 1 157,340 201,318 358,658 43.9% 56.1% 0.0%District 8 1 156,371 198,464 354,835 44.1% 55.9% 0.0% Total 1,442,491 1,398,916 15,282 2,856,689 50.5% 49.0% 0.5%

WyomingAt large 1 57,148 165,773 17,087 240,008 23.8% 69.1% 7.1%

Notes: Vote Totals are provisional

Where a candidate w as unopposed, that party is show n w ith 1 notional vote for statistical purposes

4 districts, in Arizona, California, Florida and North Carolina w ere not resolved at time of publication

In a few cases, due to State primary election rules, 2 candidates of the same party opposed each other in the General election. Where this occurred, the leading candidate is show n in the relevant party line, and their opponenet is listed under "other"

Votes Share of vote

RP 12/69

4. APPENDIX 4

US State Governor Elections 2012: results by state

State Result Candidate Votes % vote Candidate Votes % vote Votes % vote Total

Delaware Dem Hold Jack Markell 275,991 69.3% Jeff Cragg 113,792 28.6% 8,243 2.1% 398,026Indiana Rep Hold John Gregg 1,187,508 46.4% Mike Pence 1,268,076 49.6% 101,326 4.0% 2,556,910Missouri Dem Hold Jay Nixon 1,485,147 54.7% Dave Spence 1,157,475 42.6% 73,196 2.7% 2,715,818Montana Dem Hold Steve Bullock 234,980 49.0% Rick Hill 226,555 47.3% 17,729 3.7% 479,264New Hampshire Dem Hold Maggie Hassan 378,258 54.6% Ovide Lamontagne 294,477 42.5% 19,868 2.9% 692,603North Carolina Rep Gain Walter Dalton 1,931,750 43.2% Pat McCrory 2,447,988 54.7% 95,154 2.1% 4,474,892North Dakota Rep Hold Ryan Taylor 108,622 34.3% Jack Dalrymple 199,769 63.2% 7,945 2.5% 316,336Utah Rep Hold Peter Cooke 253,514 27.7% Gary Herbert 624,678 68.4% 35,504 3.9% 913,696Vermont Dem Hold Peter Shumlin 170,767 58.0% Randy Brock 110,953 37.7% 12,734 4.3% 294,454Washington Dem Hold Jay Inslee 1,431,616 51.3% Rob McKenna 1,360,262 48.7% 0 0.0% 2,791,878West Virginia Dem Hold Earl Ray Tomblin 331,116 50.5% Bill Maloney 299,682 45.7% 25,236 3.8% 656,034

Democrat Republican Others

53

RP 12/69

54

RP 12/69

5. APPENDIX 5

55