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US Economic Briefing:Social Welfare In America
Yardeni Research, Inc.
May 10, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
May 10, 2018 / US Economic Briefing: Social Welfare In America www.yardeni.com
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Personal Income Relative to GDP 1-2Personal Income Shares 3-5US Government Social Benefits 6US Government Social Benefits Deficit 7US Treasury Social Benefits Outlays 8US Treasury FICA Receipts 9US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit 10Social Benefits Per Capita 11-12Dependency Ratios 13PCE: Health Care 14Medicare & Medicaid 15-17Federal Trust Funds 18-19Supplements in Compensation vs Gvt Social Benefits 20
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1968
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70
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82
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Q1
PERSONAL INCOME: TOTAL vs. EX GOVERNMENT BENEFITS PAYMENTS(percent of GDP)
Personal Income:TotalPersonal Income: ExcludingUS Government Social Benefitsto Persons
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 1.
47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1942
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62
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Q1
PERSONAL INCOME: COMPENSATION vs. WAGES & SALARIES(percent of GDP)
Personal Income:Compensation of Employees
Personal Income:Wage & Salary Disbursements
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 2.
Personal Income Relative to GDP
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 193.5
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Q1
Q1
PERSONAL INCOME: SUPPLEMENTS vs. GOVERNMENT BENEFIT PAYMENTS(percent of GDP)
Personal Income:Supplements to Wages & Salaries*
Personal Income: US Government Social Benefits to Persons
* Included in compensation.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 3.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1950
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PERSONAL INCOME: COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES WITH & WITHOUTGOVERNMENT BENEFITS(percent of GDP)
Personal Income:Compensation of Employees PlusUS Government Social Benefits to Persons
Personal Income: Compensation of Employees
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 4.
Personal Income Relative to GDP
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1945
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Mar
COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES(percent of personal income)
Total
Wages & Salaries
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 5.
59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 195
10
15
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5
10
15
20
Mar
Mar
SUPPLEMENTS IN COMPENSATION vs. GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS(percent of personal income)
Government Social Benefits
Supplements to Wages & Salaries
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 6.
Personal Income Shares
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205
10
15
20
25
5
10
15
20
25
Mar
UNEARNED PERSONAL INCOME(percent of personal income)
Proprietors’ Income (with IVA & CCadj)Plus Rental Income (with CCAdj)
Personal Income on Assets
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 7.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2010
15
20
25
10
15
20
25
Mar
PERSONAL PAYROLL & INCOME TAXES(percent of personal income)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 8.
Personal Income Shares
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2070
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COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES EXCLUDING GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS(percent of compensation of employees)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 9.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2060
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90
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Mar
Mar
US GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS &COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES(percent of personal income)
Compensation of Employees
Compensation of Employees PlusGovernment Social Benefits to Persons
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 10.
Personal Income Shares
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2020
520
1020
1520
202025203020
20
520
1020
1520
202025203020 MarUS GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS*
(billion dollars, ratio scale)
Government Social Benefits to Persons*(saar)
Federal Outlays on Social Security, Income Security,Veterans Benefits, Medicare, & Medicaid(12-month sum)
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and US Treasury.* Included in personal income.
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Figure 11.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 205
10
15
20
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10
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20
Mar
US GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS*(percent of personal income)
* Included in personal income.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 12.
US Government Social Benefits
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60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 2020
420
820
1220
16202020242028203220
20
420
820
1220
16202020242028203220
MarUS GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS OUTLAYS & RECEIPTS*(billion dollars, saar, ratio scale)
Contributions for Government Social Insurance plusEmployer Contributions for Government Social Insurance
Government Social Benefits to Persons
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.* Included in personal income.
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Figure 13.
60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20-200
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US GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS DEFICIT*(billion dollars, saar)
* Government social benefits to persons less contributions for government social insurance plus employer contributions for government social insurance.Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 14.
US Government Social Benefits Deficit
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2060
160
260
360
460
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660
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360
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660
760860960
1060AprUS TREASURY OUTLAYS ON SOCIAL SECURITY, INCOME
SECURITY, MEDICARE(billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Social Security
Income Security
Medicare
Medicaid
Source: US Treasury.
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Figure 15.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2035
45
55
65
35
45
55
65
Apr
Apr
US TREASURY OUTLAYS ON SOCIAL SECURITY, INCOME SECURITY,MEDICARE, & MEDICAID(percent of federal outlays)
Total
Total excluding Medicaid
Source: US Treasury.
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Figure 16.
US Treasury Social Benefits Outlays
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18280
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880
9401000106011201180
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9401000106011201180 Apr
US TREASURY SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS(billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9.
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Figure 17.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-8
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US TREASURY SOCIAL INSURANCE AND RETIREMENT RECEIPTS(yearly percent change in 12-month average)
Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9.
Figure 18.
US Treasury FICA Receipts
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20250
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850
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Apr
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US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS RECEIPTS & OUTLAYS(billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Social Insurance andRetirement Receipts
Social Security andMedicare Payments
Source: US Treasury Department.
Figure 19.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-100
-50
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Apr
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS DEFICIT*(billion dollars, 12-month sum)
Source: US Treasury Department, Summary of Receipts by Source, and Outlays by Function of the US Government, Table 9.* Social Security and Medicare payments less social insurance and retirement receipts.
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Figure 20.
US Treasury Social Benefits Deficit
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48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 2210
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AprWORKING-AGE POPULATION*(millions, nsa)
Civilian Noninstitutional Population:65 & Older
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.* Civilian noninstitutional population.
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Figure 21.
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 182
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18
20
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Apr
AprUS TREASURY OUTLAYS ON SOCIAL SECURITY & MEDICARE DIVIDED BYPOPULATION 65 & OVER(thousand dollars)
Medicare OutlaysPer Senior Citizen
Social Security OutlaysPer Senior Citizen
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and US Treasury Department.
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Figure 22.
Social Benefits Per Capita
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90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 1810
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Apr
Apr
US TREASURY OUTLAYS ON SOCIAL SECURITY PLUS MEDICARE DIVIDED BYPOPULATION 65 & OVER(ratio scale)
Social Security & Medicare OutlaysPer Senior Citizen(12-month sum, thousand dollars)
Civilian Noninstitutional Population:65 & Older(millions)
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and US Treasury Department.
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Figure 23.
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 205030
40
50
60
70
80
90
30
40
50
60
70
80
90RESIDENT POPULATION PROJECTION: 65 YEARS OLD & OLDER(millions)
Actual
Forecast
Source: Census Bureau.
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Figure 24.
Social Benefits Per Capita
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19952000
20052010
20152020
20252030
20352040
20452050
10
15
20
25
10
15
20
25US RESIDENT POPULATION PROJECTION:65 & OLDER DIVIDED BY TOTAL POPULATION(percent)
Actual
Forecast
Source: US Department Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 25.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2014
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US POPULATION 65 & OVER(percent)
As a Percent of:Total Population* (19.8)Labor Force (31.5)Payroll Employment (34.3)
Source: US Department Commerce, Bureau of the Census.* Civilian noninstitutional populuation.
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Figure 26.
Dependency Ratios
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Figure 27.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400MarPERSONAL CONSUMPTION: HEALTH CARE GOODS & SERVICES
(billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Health Care Services
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 201890
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
490
90
140
190
240
290
340
390
440
490Mar
Prescription Drugs
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
27002900
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
2100
2300
2500
27002900
Mar
Total
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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PCE: Health Care
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018100
200
300
400
500
600
700
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
AprUS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS ON MEDICARE & MEDICAID(billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Medicare
Medicaid
Source: US Treasury Department.
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Figure 28.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450AprUS GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS ON MEDICARE & MEDICAID vs PRIVATE OUTLAYS ON HEALTH CARE
(billion dollars, 12-month sum, ratio scale)
Medicare Plus 2x Federal Medicaid
Private Outlays*
* Personal consumption on health care services plus prescription drugs minus federal outlays on Medicare plus 2x Federal Medicaid.Source: US Treasury Department.
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Figure 29.
Medicare & Medicaid
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201740
45
50
55
40
45
50
55US GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS ON MEDICARE & MEDICAID(as a percent of total health care spending)
Medicare (12-month sum)Plus 2x Medicaid (12-month-sum)/PCE Health Care Servicesplus Prescription Drugs (12-month sum)
Source: US Treasury Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 30.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25US GOVERNMENT & PRIVATE OUTLAYS ON MEDICARE & MEDICAID(yearly percent change)
PCE Health Care Servicesplus Prescription Drugs (12-month sum) MinusMedicare (12-month sum)Plus Medicaid 2x (12-month sum Medicaid)
Medicare (12-month sum)Plus Medicaid 2x (12-month sum Medicaid)
Source: US Treasury Department.
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Figure 31.
Medicare & Medicaid
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25US GOVERNMENT MEDICARE & MEDICAID(yearly percent change)
Medicare Plus 2xFederal Medicaid
Source: US Treasury Department.
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Figure 32.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OUTLAYS ON MEDICARE & MEDICAID(yearly percent change)
Medicare
Medicaid
Source: US Treasury Department.
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Figure 33.
Medicare & Medicaid
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20170
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TRUST FUNDS(billion dollars)
Federal Disability Insurance Trust FundFederal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund
Federal Old-Age and SurvivorsInsurance Trust Fund
Source: US Treasury Department, Detail Of Treasury Securities Outstanding, Table III.
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Figure 34.
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-50
0
50
100
150
200
-50
0
50
100
150
200US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT TRUST FUNDS(billion dollars, yearly change)
Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund
Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund
Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund
Source: US Treasury Department, Detail Of Treasury Securities Outstanding, Table III.
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Figure 35.
Federal Trust Funds
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2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 20182500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
Apr
US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING: NONMARKETABLE(billions of dollars)
Intergovernmental HeldTreasury Securities Outstanding:Nonmarketable
Source: US Treasury.
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Figure 36.
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500US FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PUBLIC DEBT OUTSTANDING: NONMARKETABLE(billions of dollars, yearly change)
Intergovernmental HeldTreasury Securities Outstanding:Nonmarketable
Source: US Treasury.
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Figure 37.
Federal Trust Funds
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59 61 63 65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 1910
15
20
25
30
35
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mar
SUPPLEMENTS IN COMPENSATION vs GOVERNMENT SOCIAL BENEFITS TO PERSONS(percent of personal income)
Government Social Benefits + Supplements to Wages & Salaries
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Figure 38.
Supplements in Compensation vs Gvt Social Benefits
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