U.S. Department of the InteriorU.S. Geological Survey

Climate Change and Plant Climate Change and Plant Phenology in the Southeastern Phenology in the Southeastern United StatesUnited States

George R. KishU.S. Geological Survey

Tampa, Florida

E-Mail: gkish@usgs.gov

Evidence

Key Findings

Temperature

Sea level

Snow cover

© IPCC, 2007

Key Findings – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Ecosystems on all continents affected Globally ~20% to 30% of species will be at

increasingly high risk of extinction by 2100 Conservation practices poorly prepared for

adaptation Effective adaptation will be costly

Projected climate change effects Projected climate change effects for the Southeast by 2090for the Southeast by 2090

Accelerated wildfire frequency – a warmer, longer dry season

Increased human health risks from exposure to heat Increased pest epidemics (pine bark beetles) Sea-level rise in coastal areas Reduced availability of soil moisture to plants Changes in ecosystem community dynamics

Soil drying leading to forest losses and savanna and grassland increases

Both drought and fire play an important role in the forest breakup

Summer Heat

Heat Index = f (temperature, humidity)

Soil MoistureChange

Precipitation Change

Phenology

Phenology - Study of the timing of recurring biological phases, the causes of their timing with regard to biotic and abiotic forces, and the interrelation among phases of same or different species

Phenophase – Bud break, unfolding of first leaf, flowering, fruiting, turning of leaves, animal migration, emergence, growth stages, breeding, nesting, hibernation, etc.

First Leaf = widest part of green leaf past brown winter bud tips)

Schwartz and Reiter 2000 International. J. Climatology

Syringa vulgaris (common lilac) Syringa chinensis (cloned lilac)

Spring index - first leaf date for lilacsSpring index - first leaf date for lilacs

Schwartz and Reiter, 2000 International. J. Climatology

Trend toward

earlier first leaf date

Hu, Q., Weiss, A., Feng, S., & Baenziger, P.S. (2006) Early winter wheat heading dates and warmer springs in the U.S. Great Plains. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 135:284.

Heading date: when head (spike) on 50% of the Kharkof cultivar emerges from the flag leaf.

Smithonian Natural History Museum

100 plants in D.C. area 89 showed earlier

blooming Deadnettle

Bloom 39 days earlier than in 1970

Issues for Southeastern Phenology

1. Will heat tolerance of sensitive species cause shifts in range?

2. Will water stress along hydrologic gradients cause long-term shifts in plant community structure?

3. Are plants blooming or setting fruit earlier because of climate change?

4. Will these shifts alter species diversity and the function of ecosystems?

Species Range Shift

Many species reach their southernmost range in the Florida peninsula

Provides opportunity to monitor range shifts Challenge – to isolate global climate change

from ecological and local weather processes

Liriodendron tulipifera (tulip tree)

Large (>100 ft tall) deciduous tree typical of the mid-Atlantic region

Southern limit – mid-peninsular Florida

Monitoring phenology of key species will provide evidence of range shifts

Hydrologic Gradient Shift

Soil drying may cause species or community changes

Opportunities for exotic invasive plants Long-term drying may permanently alter

community structure A serious issue for protecting wetlands

USF EcoArea

Xeric

Mesic

Hydric

Land and Water Table Elevation

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

0 100 200 300 400 500

Distance (in ft from site #1)

Ele

va

tio

n (

in f

t a

bo

ve

NG

VD

) Land surfaceelevation

Water levelelevation

Water levelelevation -drought

Hydrologic GradientSandhill(xyric)

Transition (mesic)

Cypress Swamp (hydric)(Source: G.Kish, unpublished

data from USF EcoArea)

Turkey oakTurkey oak

Saw palmettoSaw palmetto

Scrub live oakScrub live oak

Xeric SiteXeric Site

Longleaf pineLongleaf pine

Mesic SiteFerns

Laurel oak

High water lineHigh water line

Bald cypressBald cypress

Hydric Site

Pop ashPop ash

Species Distribution

Species Distribution: Site 6

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10

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30

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60

70

80

Fraxinus caroliniana Taxodium distichum

Species

Per

cen

t

Xeric site Longleaf pine, turkey

oak, scrub live oak

Mesic site Laurel oak, slash pine

Hydric site Bald cypress, pop ash

Species Distribution: Site 1

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10

20

30

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50

60

70

Pinus palustris Quercus laevis Quercus geminata

Species

Per

cen

t

Species Distribution: Site 4

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90

Quercus laurifolia Pinus elliottii

Species

Per

cen

t

Wet

Dry

Species Abundance

Monitoring Strategies for Change

Life cycle – timing, vulnerability to heat and water stress

Range – northward retreat or elimination of heat-sensitive species; colonization by opportunistic species

Hydrologic gradient - replacement of hydric species along hydrologic gradients in response to drought and hydroperiod changes

Community structure

IntensiveSites

Spatially Extensive Science Networks

Remote Sensing andSynoptic (wall-to-wall) DataD

ecr

easi

ng S

pati

al

Covera

ge

Incr

easi

ng P

roce

ss K

now

led

ge

Data

Qu

alit

y#

of

Measu

rem

ents

USA-NPN Monitoring Framework

Spatially Extensive Volunteer & Education Networks

AmeriFlux

NWS Coop NPS Inv. & Mon. State Ag. Exp. Sta.

Nature Preserves, Campuses

NASA USGS NOAA

Tier 1Tier 1

Tier 2Tier 2

Tier 3Tier 3

Tier 4Tier 4

Southeastern Phenology Network Plans

Uncover Legacy Data Citizen scientists Biological Research Stations and Nature Preserves Botanical Gardens and Herbariums Theses and dissertations

Southeastern Phenology Workshops Implement monitoring protocols for Southeast Select Tier 1, 2, and 3 sites for Region Develop remote sensing approach Design web site Develop priority research agenda