us-cuba: attitudes on engagement
DESCRIPTION
American political opinion has shifted to support a broad US government opening to Cuba, including an end to the 54-year-old trade embargo and restrictions on travel by Americans to the island, according to a nationwide poll released today by the Atlantic Council.TRANSCRIPT
320-594
Summary of Key Findings Presented to the:
U.S. – Cuba Relations Issues Survey
PAUL MASLIN
GLEN BOLGER
2
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) – a national Democratic opinion research firm with offices in Oakland, Los Angeles and Madison, Wisconsin – has specialized in public policy oriented opinion research since 1981. The firm has assisted hundreds of political campaigns at every level of the ballot – from President to City Council – with opinion research and strategic guidance. FM3 also provides research and strategic consulting to public agencies, businesses and public interest organizations nationwide.
Public Opinion Strategies (POS) is the largest Republican polling firm in the country. Since the firm’s founding in 1991, they have completed more than 10,000 research projects, interviewing more than five million Americans across the United States. Media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal, NBC News and CNBC rely on Public Opinion Strategies to conduct their polling. The firm conducts polling on behalf of hundreds of political campaigns, as well as trade associations, not-for-profit organizations, government entities and industry coalitions throughout the nation.
As a bipartisan team, FM3 and Public Opinion Strategies have researched a wide range of issues for nearly a decade, in particular on conservation-related initiatives and policies. Together, the two firms have jointly conducted research on behalf of political campaigns, businesses, not-for-profit organizations and public agencies in 40 states and nationally.
Bipartisan Research Team
3
Survey Methodology Nationwide telephone survey of 1,024 randomly-selected U.S.
adults ages 18 and older.– The nationwide sample margin of error is +/-3.1 percent at the 95 percent
confidence level; the margin of error for population subgroups will be higher. The survey also includes oversamples of residents in the state of Florida
and New Jersey, and among Hispanic/Latinos nationwide.– A total of 617 Florida residents were interviewed, which has a sample margin of
error of +/-4.0 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.– A total of 282 New Jersey residents were interviewed, which has a sample
margin of error of +/-5.9 percent at the 95 percent confidence level.– A total of 525 Hispanics/Latinos were interviewed, which has a sample margin
of error of +/-4.4 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. Respondents were reached via landlines and cell phones. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. The survey was conducted January 7-22, 2014.
4
Mood of the American Public & Perceptions of
U.S. Relations with Other Nations
5Q7.
Right direction36%
Wrong track56%
DK/NA9%
A majority of Americans believe the nation is “off on the wrong” track.
In general, would you say that things in the United States are generally headed in the right direction or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track?
Nationwide State of FloridaHispanics/
Latinos
Right direction35%
Wrong track55%
DK/NA10%
Right direction45%
Wrong track40%
DK/NA15%
6
A majority of Americans say the U.S. has no diplomatic relations, trade or travel with Cuba, and has a worse
relationship with the Cuban government than with Iran.
8. I would like to ask you about America’s relations with other countries around the world. Please tell me what you think U.S. relations are with that country. ^Not Part of Split Sample
Nationwide
Hispanics/Latinos
Iran
Vietnam
Mexico
England0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
78%
80%
78%
71%
44%
18%
6%
7%
6%
5%
9%
14%
10%
5%
7%
7%
10%
10%
14%
13%
34%
68%
87%
No Relations (1-3) Neutral (4) DK (8) Close Relations (5-7)
Mean Score Definition: 1=U.S. has no diplomatic relations, trade or travel with that nation; 7=U.S. has a close relationship with that nation, with free and open trade and travel.
Mean Score
2.1
2.1
2.0
2.4
3.8
5.2
6.3
^Cuba
7
Americans’ Attitudes toward Changing U.S. Policy Towards Cuba
8
A solid 56 percent majority of Americans favors changing our Cuba policy.
9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
DK/NA
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
30%
26%
13%
22%
9%
Total Oppose
35%
Total Favor56%
9
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
32%
28%
13%
20%
7%
Total Oppose
33%
There is a notable difference when the issue is phrased as “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba”
vs. “engaging more directly with Cuba.”
9. As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
Split Sample: “Normalizing”
Split Sample: “Engaging”
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
DK/NA
Total Favor60%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
27%
25%
13%
24%
11%
Total Oppose
37%
Total Favor52%
10
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
38%
25%
13%
17%
6%
Total Oppose
30%
9 (Total). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
State of Florida Hispanics/Latinos
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
DK/NA
Total Favor63%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
33%
29%
13%
18%
7%
Total Oppose
30%
Total Favor62%
Also, more than six-in-ten Floridians and Latinos favor a change in U.S. policy towards Cuba.
11
Men Women0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
61%
51%
32% 38
%
7%
11%
Total Favor Total Oppose DK/NA
(% of Sample)
Normalize/Engage with Cuba by Gender
(49%) (51%)
There is a significant gender gap as men are more likely than women to favor a change in U.S. policy towards Cuba.
9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
12
18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65-74 75+ 18-39 40-59 60+0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
57%
60%
54%
48%
65%
65%
58%
52% 59
%
35%
35%
35% 43
%
25%
21%
35%
36%
32%
7% 5%
11%
9% 10%
13%
6%
12%
9%
Total Favor Total Oppose DK/NA
(% of Sample) (25%)(21%) (27%)(12%)(20%) (37%)(14%) (34%)(7%)
9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
Two-thirds of Americans over the age of 65 favor a new approach towards Cuba.
Normalize/Engage with Cuba by Age
13
Democratsw/Leans
Independents Republicansw/Leans
NotRegistered
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
60%
60%
52%
46%
31%
30%
41%
42%
9% 10%
7%
12%
Total Favor Total Oppose DK/NA
(% of Sample) (25%)
Normalize/Engage with Cuba by Party
(37%) (28%)
9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
Support is stronger among Democrats and Independents, but a majority of
Republicans also favor the idea.
(6%)
14
Liberal Moderate/Conservative
Moderate/Liberal
Conservative Favorable Republicans0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total Favor Total Oppose DK/NA
(% of Sample) (15%)
Normalize/Engage with Cuba by Party by Ideology and Tea Party Republicans
(16%) (5%)9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
Liberal Democrats are most in favor of changing our policy towards Cuba, while only a slim majority of Tea Party Republicans oppose.
(16%) (10%)
DemocratsTea Party
RepublicansRepublicans
15
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Total Favor Total Oppose DK/NA
(% of Sample) (27%)
Normalize/Engage with Cuba by Education
(26%) (12%)
9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
As education level increases so does support for changing our policy towards Cuba.
(45%)(34%) (54%)
16
Men Women Men Women0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
55%
48%
69%
55%
37%
37%
25%
39%
8%
15%
6% 6%
Total Favor Total Oppose DK/NA
(% of Sample) (27%)
Normalize/Engage with Cuba by Education by Gender
(27%) (21%)
9 (Total-Nationwide). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
The gender gap exists by education level; seven-in-ten college educated men favor
changing our Cuba policy.
(24%)
Some College or Less Four-year College or More
17
*Nationwide
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
56%
62%
61%
21%
20%
19%
6%
6%
14%
11%
12%
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. DK/NA
11d. I am going to mention some different ways U.S. policy toward Cuba could be changed. Please tell me whether your support or oppose that proposal. *Split Sample in Nationwide Survey Only
Three-quarters of Americans support changing U.S. policy so that we can coordinate with Cuba
on issues important to both nations.
Holding meetings with the Cuban government to coordinate on issues of mutual concern, like preventing drug trafficking and smuggling
Total Suppor
tTotal
Oppose
77% 20%
82% 15%
80% 18%
18
More than six-in-ten also support allowing U.S. companies to do more business in Cuba, and lifting restrictions on
travel and spending money in Cuba.
11 a, b, c, e (Nationwide). I am going to mention some different ways U.S. policy toward Cuba could be changed. Please tell me whether your support or oppose that proposal. *Split Sample in Nationwide Survey Only
Allowing more American companies to do business in Cuba
Removing restrictions on U.S. citizens to spend dollars in Cuba
Removing all restrictions on travel to Cuba by U.S. citizens
*Allowing Cuba access to high-speed Internet and other telecommunications systems based in the United States
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
35%
35%
35%
29%
27%
26%
25%
23%
12%
13%
16%
16%
24%
22%
20%
27% 5%
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. DK/NATotal
SupportTotal
Oppose
62% 36%
61% 35%
61% 36%
52% 43%
19
Floridians and Latinos also express solid support for making these changes
to U.S. policy towards Cuba.
11a, b, c, e. I am going to mention some different ways U.S. policy toward Cuba could be changed. Please tell me whether your support or oppose that proposal.
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
40%
40%
40%
38%
38%
37%
39%
30%
23%
25%
23%
29%
29%
29%
25%
25%
11%
12%
13%
11%
12%
15%
9%
15%
21%
20%
19%
18%
18%
16%
19%
18%
5%
5%
8%
13%
Strng. Supp. Smwt. Supp. Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. DK/NATotal
SupportTotal
Oppose
63% 32%
65% 32%
63% 32%
67% 29%
67% 29%
66% 31%
64% 28%
55% 33%
Allowing more American companies to do
business in Cuba
Removing restrictions on U.S. citizens to spend
dollars in Cuba
Removing all restrictions on travel to Cuba by U.S.
citizens
Allowing Cuba access to high-speed Internet and
other telecommunications systems based in the
United States
20
Reactions to Factual Statements about Cuba
21
Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland
Our government only allows Cuban Americans to travel to Cuba without permission. If you are not Cuban American, the U.S. Treasury Department must approve your travel. We do not do that with any other country
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
38%
37%
20%
21%
12%
15%
23%
21%
Very Impt. to Norm./Engage Smwt. Impt. to Norm./Engage
Smwt. Impt. Keep Very Impt. To Keep
Cuba’s proximity to the U.S. mainland, and travel restrictions were regarded by six-in-ten as important reasons to change our policy.
12 e, f (Nationwide). I am going to read you a series of factual statements. Please indicate whether you consider it to be a reason (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “to normalize U.S. relations with Cuba”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “for the U.S. to engage more directly with Cuba”) or a reason to keep current U.S. policy in place? (Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland)
Total Normalize/
EngageTotal Keep
58% 35%
58% 36%
22
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
41%
38%
33%
37%
17%
22%
26%
23%
14%
15%
16%
17%
23%
20%
21%
18%
Very Impt. to Norm./Engage Smwt. Impt. to Norm./Engage
Smwt. Impt. Keep Very Impt. To Keep
Floridians and Latinos had similar reactions to these statements as
reasons to change our Cuba policy.
12e, f. I am going to read you a series of factual statements. Please indicate whether you consider it to be a reason (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “to normalize U.S. relations with Cuba”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “for the U.S. to engage more directly with Cuba”) or a reason to keep current U.S. policy in place? (Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland) ^Not Part of Split Sample
Total Normalize/
EngageTotal Keep
59% 37%
61% 35%
59% 37%
60% 35%
Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland
Our government only allows Cuban Americans to travel
to Cuba without permission. If you are not Cuban
American, the U.S. Treasury Department must
approve your travel. We do not do that with any other
country
23
12a, d (Nationwide). I am going to read you a series of factual statements. Please indicate whether you consider it to be a reason (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “to normalize U.S. relations with Cuba”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “for the U.S. to engage more directly with Cuba”) or a reason to keep current U.S. policy in place? (Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland) ^Not Part of Split Sample
Solid majorities of Americans thinks the policy should be changed because it hurts our economy, and Cuba
has started to make economic reforms.
^The Cuba trade embargo is estimated to cost the U.S. economy as much as $4.8 billion in exports and related economic output per year
The Cuban government has made economic reforms to allow entrepreneurship, and today more than forty percent of all Cubans earn their income from privately-owned small businesses
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
36%
30%
21%
25%
16%
16%
22%
21%
Very Impt. to Norm./Engage Smwt. Impt. to Norm./Engage
Smwt. Impt. Keep Very Impt. To Keep
Total Normalize/
EngageTotal Keep
56% 38%
55% 37%
2412a, d. I am going to read you a series of factual statements. Please indicate whether you consider it to be a reason (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “to normalize U.S. relations with Cuba”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “for the U.S. to engage more directly with Cuba”) or a reason to keep current U.S. policy in place? (Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland) ^Not Part of Split Sample
The statements related to economic issues were especially impactful with Latinos.
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
35%
42%
36%
38%
23%
21%
21%
26%
17%
14%
15%
13%
19%
16%
23%
18%
Very Impt. to Norm./Engage Smwt. Impt. to Norm./Engage
Smwt. Impt. Keep Very Impt. To Keep
Total Normalize/
EngageTotal Keep
57% 37%
63% 30%
56% 37%
64% 30%
^The Cuba trade embargo is estimated to cost the
U.S. economy as much as $4.8 billion in exports and
related economic output per year
The Cuban government has made economic
reforms to allow entrepreneurship, and today more than forty
percent of all Cubans earn their income from
privately-owned small businesses
2512b, c. I am going to read you a series of factual statements. Please indicate whether you consider it to be a reason (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “to normalize U.S. relations with Cuba”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “for the U.S. to engage more directly with Cuba”) or a reason to keep current U.S. policy in place? (Cuba is only 90 miles away from the U.S. mainland) ^Not Part of Split Sample
Nationwide
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
Nationwide
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
26%
28%
26%
23%
25%
28%
17%
17%
21%
18%
18%
24%
17%
17%
16%
21%
18%
16%
33%
32%
29%
30%
34%
26%
Very Impt. to Norm./Engage Smwt. Impt. to Norm./Engage
Smwt. Impt. Keep Very Impt. To Keep
Total Normalize/
EngageTotal Keep
43% 50%
45% 49%
47% 45%
41% 51%
43% 51%
52% 41%
^Cuba continues to have a dismal human rights record.
The Castro regime represses virtually all forms of political dissent through
detentions, arbitrary arrests, beatings, travel restrictions, forced exile and sentencing
dissidents in closed trials
After more than fifty years of no U.S. relations with Cuba the Castro regime
remains in power
On the other hand, a majority opposes a policy change after hearing about Cuba’s human rights abuses, and that
the Castro regime remains in power.
2613. In your opinion, does Cuba pose the same threat as these other countries, Sudan, Syria and Iran, and thus belongs on the list?
A majority of Americans and six-in-ten Floridians do not think Cuba belongs on the U.S. State Department’s list
of state-sponsors of terrorism…Currently, the U.S. State Department designates four countries in the world as state-sponsors
of terrorism: Cuba, Iran, Syria and Sudan. The State Department defines state-sponsored terrorism as countries that have repeatedly provided support for acts of international terrorism,
and places sanctions on these nations that restrict trade, travel and foreign assistance.
80%60%40%20%0%20%40%60%
40%
31%
43%
52%
61%
50%
Total Yes/Same Threat Total No/Not Same Threat DK/NA
7%
8%
6%
Nationwide
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
2713/14 (Combined). Thinking again, does Cuba pose the same threat as Sudan, Syria and Iran, and thus belongs on the state sponsored terrorism list?
Thousands of Al-Qaeda terrorists are in Sudan or Syria, and Iran has been aggressively building its nuclear program. Despite human rights abuses,
Cuba poses none of the active dangers to the United States and our security that these other countries possess.
After hearing the statement above, even fewer think Cuba should be on the state-sponsors of terrorism list.
80%60%40%20%0%20%40%
30%
24%
34%
61%
67%
59%
Total Yes/Same Threat Total No/Not Same Threat DK/NA
9%
9%
7%
Nationwide
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
28
Statements For and Against a Changed U.S.
Policy Toward Cuba
29
Statements Supporting Changing U.S. Policy
15a-e. I am going to read some statements made by people who support (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba.”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba.”) Please tell me whether you find it to be a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not too convincing reason to (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalize relations with Cuba.”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “engage more directly with Cuba.”). ^Not Part of Split Sample
Statements
Nationwide State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
Very Conv.
Very/Smwt. Conv.
Very Conv.
Very/Smwt. Conv.
Very Conv.
Very/Smwt. Conv.
(TRADE) Latin America is the United States’ fastest growing trading partner. Cuba, just 90 miles off the Florida Coast, provides new
opportunities for American businesses in all types of industries—agriculture, hotels and tourism, and high-tech—that will help grow the
U.S. economy and create new jobs in America
34% 65% 32% 69% 38% 71%
^(HURT) For fifty years, the U.S. embargo has hurt the people of Cuba, not the government. Changing our policy will help the Cuban people out of severe poverty, and we can continue to be tough on the Castro regime
and hold it accountable for human rights abuses
33% 64% 37% 64% 33% 65%
(VIETNAM) Today we have good diplomatic relations with Vietnam, including open travel and free trade. If we are willing to talk to and work
with a country we went to war with, surely it is time to re-evaluate our outdated Cuba policy
33% 61% 37% 57% 42% 66%
(CHANGE) As with Communism in Eastern Europe or dictatorships in the Middle East, Cuba’s government will eventually change. It is better for the U.S. to engage more directly with Cuba now so we are in better
position to respond to that change instead of waiting to respond to chaos, like what is happening in Egypt, just 90 miles from our shores
32% 57% 36% 62% 36% 64%
(FLORIDA) For too long, politicians have allowed Florida to control U.S. foreign policy. It is time to set our Cuba policy based on what is best for
America’s overall national security and economic interests29% 56% 26% 58% 33% 66%
30
15f. I am going to read some statements made by people who support (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba.”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba.”) Please tell me whether you find it to be a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not too convincing reason to (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalize relations with Cuba.”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “engage more directly with Cuba.”).
One additional supportive statement was asked of non-Florida Latinos.
(UNEQUAL) U.S. immigration law prevents millions of hardworking and law abiding Latinos who have been here for years from gaining legal status, but
if a Cuban sets foot on U.S. soil they automatically gain legal status
(Asked of Non-Florida Hispanic/Latino Residents)
Hispanics/Latinos0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
26%
54%
Very Conv. Very/Smwt. Conv.
31
Statements
Nationwide State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
Very Conv.
Very/Smwt. Conv.
Very Conv.
Very/Smwt. Conv.
Very Conv.
Very/Smwt. Conv.
(WEAKEN) Ending the embargo before the Cuban government meets the conditions specified would weaken the United States. Changing our policy would send a message to Iran, North Korea and other countries that they can act against American interests with no consequences
30% 51% 32% 52% 36% 58%
^(CUBAN AMERICANS) Cuban Americans support current U.S. policy because it puts economic pressure on the Castro regime, while providing assistance to Cuban citizens. Travel and financial restrictions have already been lifted for Cuban Americans to help their families; meanwhile we should stay tough on the Castro regime
27% 61% 32% 67% 29% 61%
(WORKING) Now is not the time to lift sanctions as the embargo is weakening the Cuban government. Keeping existing policies in place will help bring down the Castro regime, like our tough stance against Communism helped bring down the Berlin Wall
24% 54% 22% 52% 23% 54%
Statements Opposing Changing U.S. Policy
16. I am going to read some statements made by people who oppose (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba.”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba.”) Please tell me whether you find it to be a very convincing, somewhat convincing, or not too convincing reason to maintain current U.S. policy. ^Not Part of Split Sample
32
After these messages a solid majority of Americans continues to favors changing
U.S. policy regardless of whether it is referred to as “normalizing” or “engaging”.
9 (Total)/17 (Total). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
30%
26%
13%
22%
9%
Total Oppose
35%
Initial After Messages
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
DK/NA
Total Favor56%
0% 15% 30% 45% 60%
32%
24%
15%
25%
5%
Total Oppose
39%
Total Favor55%
33
Initial
After Messages
Initial
After Messages
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
38%
37%
33%
39%
25%
29%
29%
22%
13%
13%
13%
13%
17%
18%
18%
22%
6%
7%
Strng. Fav. Smwt. Fav. Smwt. Opp. Strng. Opp. DK/NA
More than six-in-ten Floridians and Latinos favor changing our Cuba policy after the messages.
9 (Total)/17 (Total). As you may know, since 1961 the United States has had no diplomatic relations with Cuba and restricts trade and travel with Cuba for the vast majority of American citizens and American businesses. Would you favor or oppose: (SPLIT SAMPLE A: “normalizing U.S. relations with Cuba?”) (SPLIT SAMPLE B: “the U.S. engaging more directly with Cuba?”)
State of Florida
Hispanics/Latinos
63%
66%
62%
61%
30%
31%
30%
35%
% DifferenceTotal Favor
Total Oppose
+3% +1%
-1% +5%
34
The United States often establishes a special diplomatic position, called an envoy, for countries that we have hostile or tense relationships with, like North Korea, Sudan and the Congo.
Yes61%
No32%
DK/NA7%
Nationwide State of FloridaHispanics/
Latinos
18. Would you support the United States sending a special envoy to Cuba?
After going through the survey, six-in-ten Americans support the U.S. appointing
a Special Envoy to Cuba.
Yes61%
No32%
DK/NA7%
Yes59%
No33%
DK/NA8%
320-594
Summary of Key Findings Presented to the:
U.S. – Cuba Relations Issues Survey
PAUL MASLIN
GLEN BOLGER