US-China Cooperation:Opportunities for Air Quality & Climate

China Environment Forum PanelMarch 17, 2010

Overview

► US China cooperation on clean air & energy

► Opportunities for improving public health while achieving climate cobenefits

2

China Air Quality

► Home to 7 of the 10 most air-polluted cities in the world ► Heavily dependent on coal for power and household energy

► ~80% of rural households burn biomass fuel and coal for home cooking and heating

► China is 3rd largest energy producer (after US and Russia) and 2nd largest consumer

► Must double electric-generating capacity every decade to maintain economic growth rate

► WHO estimates ~700,000 premature deaths/yr from air pollution► 300,000 from ambient air pollution► 400,000 from indoor air pollution► Respiratory & heart diseases related to air pollution are China’s leading

causes of death

► $136 billion (~7% of GDP) to clean up pollution in 2004► Demand for private vehicles is rising exponentially with rising

incomes - Beijing adds 4-5,000 vehicles/month to its roads

US-China Clean Air & Energy Strategy

► Goal: Reduce pollution & energy intensity of China’s growing economy

► Improve China’s air quality and public health► Reduce emissions which have potential to affect US► Assist in developing sustainable industry and transportation► Support hemispheric air pollution transport characterization

► Priority Areas:► Regional air quality management► Transportation sector► Power sector

► Also:► US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue► Global Partnerships (Methane to Markets, WSSD Clean Fuels &

Vehicles, Clean Indoor Air)

EPA-China Clean Air & Energy Activities

► Regional Air Quality Management ► modeling, inventories, control strategies,

policy development

► Sulfur Dioxide Emission Trading Program for the Chinese Power Sector

► Clean Fuels & Vehicles - Multi-Project Partnership► AIRNow International - Shanghai Pilot Project► Integrated air quality – climate strategies► GHG Inventory Project► Energy efficient buildings & labeling programs

Phase 2

U.S.-China “Strategy on Clean Air and Energy” Cooperation China AQ Modeling & Emissions Assessment Projects

36-km

12-km

4-km

China national/regional pilot modeling demo project 2003-2004

Beijing & Shanghai modeling & EI efforts are underway

Phase 1

Phase 3

PRD modeling & EIInitiated in 2006

Beijing Particulate Matter Modeling Results

Beijing Beijing emissions onlyemissions only

Transported Transported emissions onlyemissions only

Beijing plus Beijing plus transported transported emissionsemissions

RAQM Conference

What AIRNow does

45 62

125485

215 55

• Coordination• Centralization• AQI conversion• Education• Distribution

AIRNow 上海 - International Pilot Project

Clean Fuels and Vehicles

An integrated set of projects representing a holistic approach to achieving fuel and vehicle emissions reductions including:

► Beijing diesel retrofit► Advanced vehicle technologies ► Fuel efficiency► Capacity building► On Board Diagnostics ► In-use vehicle compliance► Fuel quality (sulfur)► Non-road regulations ► Sustainable transportation► New clean vehicles ► Voluntary programs ► Training, training trainers

What if…China adopted Euro V Vehicle and Fuel Standards?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Clean Fuels

CleanVehciles

Total

Health Outcome

ImprovedVehicles

Improved Fuels

Total Avoided Incidences

Total Mortality

1.1 million 370,000 1.5 million

Chronic bronchitis

2.8 million 930,000 3.7 million

Acute Bronchitis

79 million 27 million 106 million

Asthma 10 million 3.5 million 14 million

Restricted Activity Days

740 million 250 million 990 million

Avoided Health Impacts 2008-2030Net benefits in 2030 (billion U.S. dollars)

Source: Costs and Benefits of Reduced Sulfur Fuels in China (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2006) http://www.theicct.org/documents/Reduced_Sulfur_China_ES_Chinese_ICCT_2006.pdf

Benefits: costs = 20:1

Air Pollution and Climate:

Shared sources offer potential for integrated solutions

Integrating Clean Air and Climate

► A changing climate affects air quality

► Air quality impacts climate

► Integrating climate and air quality programs

Regional warming impacts may be significant

In the Himalayan region, solar heating from BLACK CARBON at high elevations may be just as important as carbon dioxide in the melting of snowpacks and glaciers (Ramanathan & Carmichael, 2008)

Air quality impacts climate

East A

sia (m

ostly

China)

South A

mer

ica

Wes

tern

Afri

ca

South A

sia

Souther

n Afri

ca

Southea

st A

sia

United S

tate

s

OECD Euro

pe

Easte

rn A

frica

Former

USSR

Centra

l Am

erica

Ocean

ia

Mid

dle Eas

t

Japan

Easte

rn E

urope

Canad

a

Norther

n Afri

ca0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Mill

ion

Tons

1996 BC Emissions

Global BC Emissions, By Region

Total Global Black Carbon Emissions = 8.8 Million Tons

Adapted from: Streets, D. G., et al. (2004), J. of Geophysical Letters.

East Asia BC Emissions by Sector

51.1%

30.8%

0.2%

9.9%

7.9%

ResidentialIndustry

Power

TransportBurning

1996 BC Emissions, East Asia (mostly China)

Total ~ 1.8 Million Tons

Adapted from: Streets, D. G., et al. (2004), J. of Geophysical Letters.

Challenges for Black Carbon:

► Location of reductions matters because these pollutants are more local/regional in nature

► Black carbon’s warming effect is offset some by cooling from reflective pollutants emitted at the same source, especially organic carbon

► Additional research needed on emission inventories and assessing net climate impacts of reductions from particularsource categories

Integrating Climate & Air Quality Programs

Upcoming Opportunities► Revised Air Pollution Control Law► 12th Five-Year Plan

► Total Emission Control targets (SO2, NOX)

► Revised renewable energy law (2009)► Potential air quality standards for PM2.5 and

ozone► 50 ppm S fuel now available in Beijing,

Shanghai and Guangzhou

► Public health impacts continue to be significant and drive control programs► But climate cobenefits can accompany

reductions

► There is an optimal investment path unique for China► Integrated modeling can

reveal the optimal path

► Need to develop analytical toolsto highlight choices

Integrating Clean Air and Climate

Melting glaciers in Himalayas worrisome www.chinaview.cn 2010-02-10China tackling global warming impact on China tackling global warming impact on Qinghai-Tibet PlateauQinghai-Tibet Plateau

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谢谢 谢谢 !!