US banks’ behavior since Lehman’s collapse,

bailout uncertainty and ambiguity aversion

Alex Cukierman

1

2

Source: Cukierman (2013), "Monetary policy and institution before, during, and after the global financial crisis", Journal of Financial Stability, forthcoming

Figure 1: Total US commercial banks' credit (Billions of $): January 1947- May 2013

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

471

Janu

ary

1949

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

511

Janu

ary

1953

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

551

Janu

ary

1957

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

591

Janu

ary

1961

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

631

Janu

ary

1965

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

671

Janu

ary

1969

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

711

Janu

ary

1973

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

751

Janu

ary

1977

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

791

Janu

ary

1981

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

831

Janu

ary

1985

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

871

Janu

ary

1989

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

911

Janu

ary

1993

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

951

Janu

ary

1997

1 Ja

nuar

y 19

991

Janu

ary

2001

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

031

Janu

ary

2005

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

071

Janu

ary

2009

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

111

Janu

ary

2013

3

Figure 2: Total US commercial banks' credit (Billions of $): January 2008- May 2013

8200

8400

8600

8800

9000

9200

9400

9600

9800

10000

10200

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

08

1 Ap

ril 2

008

1 Ju

ly 2

008

1 O

ctob

er 2

008

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

09

1 Ap

ril 2

009

1 Ju

ly 2

009

1 O

ctob

er 2

009

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

10

1 A

pril

2010

1 Ju

ly 2

010

1 O

ctob

er 2

010

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

11

1 A

pril

2011

1 Ju

ly 2

011

1 O

ctob

er 2

011

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

12

1 A

pril

2012

1 Ju

ly 2

012

1 O

ctob

er 2

012

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

13

1 A

pril

2013

Source: Bloomberg - Ticker: ALCBBKCR Index

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Source: Cukierman (2013), "Monetary policy and institution before, during, and after the global financial crisis", Journal of Financial Stability.

Figure 3: Total Reserves of US Depository Institutions (Billions of $)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

5

Figure 4: Evolution of average reserve ratio of US banking system: January 2008- May 2013

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%1

Janu

ary

2008

1 A

pril

2008

1 Ju

ly 2

008

1 O

ctob

er 2

008

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

09

1 A

pril

2009

1 Ju

ly 2

009

1 O

ctob

er 2

009

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

10

1 A

pril

2010

1 Ju

ly 2

010

1 O

ctob

er 2

010

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

11

1 A

pril

2011

1 Ju

ly 2

011

1 O

ctob

er 2

011

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

12

1 A

pril

2012

1 Ju

ly 2

012

1 O

ctob

er 2

012

1 Ja

nuar

y 20

13

1 A

pril

2013

Source: Bloomberg - Ticker: ALCBBKCR Index, Federal Reserve Board Website

Average growth of US commercial banks' credit by subperiods at annual rates

6

Time periodYearly growth of US commercial banks' credit

January 1947- August 20087.15%

August 2008 - June 20110.65%

June 2011 - May 20134.58%

Thank You

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