U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Throughout his presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trumpregularly challenged bedrock policies and strategies relating to the U.S. rolein the world, from doubting the value of international trade agreements andthe NATO alliance to dismissing the traditional U.S. approach to securityand nuclear proliferation. As a result, governments worldwide are nowintensely trying to assess what a Trump presidency will mean for theirrelations with the United States and for international order more generally.In turn, Thomas Carothers asked a group of Carnegie’s experts to examinehow these governments are digesting the news of Trump’s victory, theirviews and concerns related to Trump’s foreign policy, and the potential

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THOMAS CAROTHERS, LIZZA BOMASSI, AMR HAMZAWY, ARIEL (ELI) LEVITE, DOUGLAS H.PAAL, GEORGE PERKOVICH, MARC PIERINI, KARIM SADJADPOUR, JAMES L. SCHOFF, ASHLEY J.TELLIS, DMITRI TRENIN, FREDERIC WEHREYArticle November 11, 2016

The world reacts to the election of Donald Trump and its potential implications.

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U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’sVictory

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U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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implications for their countries.

Russia: Cautious HopeDmitri Trenin

Europe: Anxiety and Morbid FascinationLizza Bomassi

China: Watching Closely for SignsDouglas H. Paal

Japan: Trepidation about Transactional PoliticsJames L. Schoff

India: Perplexity on Top of UncertaintyAshley J. Tellis

Israel: A Honeymoon of Uncertain DurationAriel (Eli) Levite

Iran: Happiness Among HardlinersKarim Sadjadpour

Saudi Arabia: Be Careful What You Wish For Frederic Wehrey

Egypt: Expecting Greater ForbearanceAmr Hamzawy

Turkey: A Mix of Trust and UncertaintyMarc Pierini

The Iran Deal: Perspectives From Major PowersGeorge Perkovich with Cornelius Adebahr, Alexey Arbatov, JamesActon, Toby Dalton, Mark Hibbs, and Tong Zhao

RUSSIA: CAUTIOUS HOPE

Dmitri Trenin

The Kremlin did not anticipate Trump’s electoral victory. It was preparing

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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for Hillary Clinton and the prospect of U.S.-Russian relations continuing todeteriorate, with a not-too-trivial chance of a kinetic collision betweenRussian and U.S. forces—such as through the imposition of a no-fly zone inSyria, which Clinton supported.

For Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump’s election is a chance to pullrelations with the United States out of the danger zone and make deals onissues such as Syria and Ukraine. Trump’s comment that “wouldn’t it benice” to get “along with Russia,” his offer to join forces with Moscow to fightthe self-proclaimed Islamic State, and his comment on Crimea’s peoplebeing happier now than under Ukraine’s rule have not gone unnoticed bythe Kremlin.

Putin sees Trump as a fellow leader who cares more about his country’snational interests than about ideologies. In Moscow’s view, a United Statesthat is largely focused on itself is far more welcome than a United Statesthat seeks to dominate the world and aggressively promote its values,norms, and principles in a borderless environment.

That said, the Kremlin is fully aware of a myriad of uncertainties linked tothe outcome of the U.S. vote. Who will occupy top positions in the Trumpadministration? Where will its ideas about U.S. foreign and security policycome from? Will Trump stick to his guns when it comes to Russia or will heeventually succumb to the existing anti-Russian consensus, thereby makingpeace with the political establishment?

Yet, for the first time in years, there is hope in Moscow that U.S.-Russianrelations can be improved in a way that is acceptable to Russia. Inparticular, this would entail Washington leaning on Kiev to implement theMinsk II agreement while easing the sanctions regime on Moscow, as wellas the United States and Russia resuming diplomatic collaboration in Syriaand starting a joint military effort against extremists there.

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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This is a hope, not an expectation, and this hope may well be dashed. In thebigger scheme of things, however, the Trump phenomenon suggests to theKremlin that the United States is becoming concerned with its globaloverextension. If this is confirmed, Russia is ready to play along.

EUROPE: ANXIETY AND MORBID FASCINATION

Lizza Bomassi

Europeans followed the election extravaganza in the United States withcurious anxiety and morbid fascination. The day-after shockwaves equal orexceed those that many Europeans felt in June when the continent woke upto the results of the Brexit vote. Reactions have ranged from stupefaction tojubilation to sheer dread.

The immediate political response in Europe has been a flurry of overturestoward the president-elect from both the elite and the antiestablishmentcamps. The EU has invited Trump to an early bilateral summit; the Germandefense minister has called on Trump to elaborate on his plans for NATO;the French president is soliciting talks with Trump as soon as possible; andthe list goes on. The sense of dealing with the unknown is palpable, but thefears are acute: Are trade agreements with the United States dead? Whatwill Trump do in Syria? Will there be some new U.S.-Russian concordat?When the Brexit vote happened, the EU was still in a relative position ofpower to negotiate its new relationship with the UK. With the United States—and a potentially much more transactional U.S. administration—this ismuch less the case, particularly given how anchored Europe is to the UnitedStates, militarily and economically.

At the same time, European populist parties are viewing Trump’s win as avindication that their style of politics isn’t so far off the mark. “Their worldis falling apart. Ours is being built,” a senior member of France’s far-right

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National Front tweeted, echoing the sentiment of many in l’Europe profondwho share this view.

The political reverberations within Europe could be momentous. In 2017,there will be three major national European elections, in France, Germany,and the Netherlands. The antiestablishment victory in the United States,and the Brexit vote before it, will only pander to populist politics. Trump’svictory also casts serious doubts over the Paris climate deal, Europeansecurity (including NATO), and the Transatlantic Trade and InvestmentPartnership, to name just a few EU foreign policy concerns.

Europeans are left with one of two choices. They can digest Trump’selection as a wake-up call and acknowledge that they need to stick together—that the “strength in unity” narrative is even more significant today. Orthey can allow this historic change in Western leadership to become awedge that irreparably divides those who see the value in the Europeanproject and those who utterly reject all that this union represents.

CHINA: WATCHING CLOSELY FOR SIGNS

Douglas H. Paal

In the early days of U.S. relations with the People’s Republic of China,Beijing often feared the unknown and favored the incumbent party in U.S.presidential elections. Over time, Chinese officials became more self-confident and less fearful that their interests would be impacted by U.S.election outcomes. During this election cycle, Chinese officials made a showof having no preference between the candidates.

Ordinary Chinese, however, showed unprecedented interest in this electionand the larger democratic process. And Chinese experts now want to knowwhether Trump will continue President Barack Obama’s pivot to Asia,

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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which the Chinese see as restraining their rise. They have noticed withpleasure Trump’s dismissive attitude toward frictions in the South ChinaSea. Yet, they have also noticed with concern some of his purportedadvisers’ comments on strengthening ties with Taiwan and the U.S.presence in the region.

Chinese experts are also trying to decipher Trump’s economic positions.Will Trump press Beijing on trade and its currency, and, at the same time,remain uninterested in pursuing the Trans-Pacific Partnership or free tradeagreements, from which China feels excluded? Will he reinvigorate the U.S.economy and restore American preeminence, or will he lead the country toturn inward, with more room for China to expand its influence?

Chinese officials and non-officials alike are interested in avoiding conflictwith the United States and managing inevitable strategic competition in theWestern Pacific while expanding China’s influence there. With ties beingtested between the United States and the Philippines, Malaysia, and nowSouth Korea, Beijing sees new opportunities in the region and is keenlyinterested in how Trump will address these troubled relationships.

Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely extend an early invitation to meetwith Trump, reciprocating Obama’s invitation for Xi to join him inunstructured talks at the U.S.-ASEAN Sunnylands Summit in 2013. Beijingwill also try to develop a cooperative agenda between the two countries,building on experience in working together on the Iran nuclear agreementand on climate change.

Chinese officials and experts are aware that Trump could take a firmerstance with China than Obama did. They are looking for, in particular, signsof stronger trade actions through the World Trade Organization orotherwise, an uptick in interaction with Taiwan or new arms sales to theisland, and tougher rhetoric directed toward Beijing.

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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JAPAN: TREPIDATION ABOUT TRANSACTIONALPOLITICS

James L. Schoff

Trump’s “America First” campaign rhetoric and the deep uncertainty abouthow he will translate campaign statements into policy realities have raisedserious concerns in Tokyo about the continuity of an economic and securityrelationship of unrivaled importance for Japan’s foreign policy. Trump’scriticism of Japanese trade practices, derision of free trade agreements, andcalls for Tokyo to pay more for U.S. troops based in Japan has Japanesepoliticians on the defensive and unsure of whom to turn to for access toTrump’s inner circle. In this new context of trepidation in Tokyo, Japanesepolicymakers will focus on two key questions to determine how to bestorient their country’s strategy.

First, will Trump be principled and combative with China or stick to simpletransactions and less active leadership? Trump has threatened tradesanctions against China and promised a major military buildup, whichcould reassure Tokyo on security and even facilitate closer Japanese-Chinese relations if they join forces against U.S. trade pressure. The worstoutcome for Japan would be a sense of strategic abandonment. This couldarise if Trump acquiesces to Chinese “core interest” or “historical rights-based” security arguments in Asia, leading his administration to downplayties with traditional allies and partners in exchange for lower Chinese tradesurpluses and other favors. The ultimate question is will a Trumpadministration see continued U.S. leadership in Asia as a national andcollective strategic good by itself, worthy of U.S. investment to benefit itslong-term interests, or is it only willing to exercise such leadership for aprice, paid by U.S. allies like Japan? Japan will resist paying more tosupport a U.S.-centered agenda, but it can step up its own diplomatic

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activities in coordination with Washington—such as economic anddiplomatic investment in Southeast Asia—to support growth andcomplement U.S. contributions.

Second, how committed will a Trump administration be to the open, rules-based order that is so critical to Japan’s economic and political stability?Active support for this order has been a mainstay of U.S.-Japanese relationssince the 1980s, but U.S. indifference now—or possibly even outrightrejection of current trade regimes—could disrupt Japanese supply chains,harm Japan’s economy, and leave Japan on the shorter end of a “mightmakes right” world and more dependent on China. Japan’s governmentspent significant political capital getting the country into the Paris climateagreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership free trade deal, twomultilateral initiatives Trump has loudly rejected. If U.S. leadership in Asiaweakens, Japan will likely band with other middle powers—includingAustralia, India, and South Korea—to shore up the World TradeOrganization, East Asia Summit, G7, G20, and other institutions to providesome leverage as it seeks to improve relations with China on acceptableterms.

INDIA: PERPLEXITY ON TOP OF UNCERTAINTY

Ashley J. Tellis

Like their peers around the world, Indian policymakers are grappling withthe populist revolution that has finally come to the United States. Trump’selection offers both opportunities and perils, but it is the fundamentaluncertainty about whether his administration will faithfully reflect hisviews as a candidate or some other, more considered vision that has Indianleaders scratching their heads right now.

Their perplexity, while understandable if for no other reason than its global

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ubiquity, is nonetheless acuminate because the stakes are so high for NewDelhi. For close to twenty years now, successive Indian governments havesought to build a strategic partnership with Washington on the assumptionthat the United States would remain invested in protecting the liberalinternational order that so favors a rising power such as India. If a Trumpadministration were to give up on preserving this U.S. creation—and onmaintaining the favorable balance of power necessary toward that end—what good would making America great again be to Indian security anddevelopment?

Other uncertainties are equally gnawing. Will Trump’s views onimmigration collide with the Indian interest in preserving access to the U.S.market for its skilled labor? However welcome Trump’s resolve to combatterrorism may be, will his policies alter the prevailing U.S. approach towardPakistan? Will his declared suspicion of U.S. alliances create enhancedopportunities for Chinese assertiveness in Asia? Will Trump’sdetermination to renegotiate existing trade deals undermine globalizationat exactly the time when India has become more connected to theinternational economy than ever before? For the moment at least, thesequestions and their answers—which remain mysteries—eclipse even the fewhopeful portents that Indian elites discerned in Trump’s otherwisegarrulous election campaign.

But underlying these particular incertitudes is a deeper anxiety: HasAmerican society changed so fundamentally that the nation that built andmaintained the most successful liberal international order to date is willingto walk away from upholding its proudest and most beneficial creation—beneficial not simply to others but significantly to itself? If so, then Indiangrand strategy does indeed confront a dangerous new world, one that India—in both its physical and ideational resources—is not yet equipped toconfront successfully or with confidence.

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For now, Indian policymakers hew to the hope that, despite Trump’spreelection rhetoric, he will attempt to unify a perilously fractured UnitedStates, commit to protecting the U.S.-led international order, and continueto strengthen the U.S.-Indian strategic partnership in order to advance thecommon aim of effectively balancing against the rise of Chinese power inAsia. These leaders yearn for a reassurance that Trump’s early politicalappointments will confirm these prospects, but they are nowhere nearfiguring out what might need to be done if their expectations areconfounded.

ISRAEL: A HONEYMOON OF UNCERTAIN DURATION

Ariel (Eli) Levite

On the face of it, U.S.-Israeli relations seem headed for a dramaticimprovement once Trump takes office. Notwithstanding the broad andextensive collaboration between the two countries throughout Obama’s twoterms in office—including Israeli deference to Washington on numeroussecurity issues and massive U.S. security assistance to Israel—Obama andIsraeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu enjoyed no personal chemistry.Substantial policy differences repeatedly surfaced, particularly over Iranianand Palestinian issues, and each leader suspected the other of conspiringpolitically against him on his home front.

Given Trump’s attitude toward the two-state solution and the Iran nucleardeal and his repeated assurances of support for Israel, professed eagernessto work closely with Putin, vocal hatred toward the old establishment andthe “left-leaning media,” and even his Jewish family connections, the newpresident-elect can expect to find a kindred spirit in Jerusalem. Moreover,he will meet an able and willing partner on a broad bilateral and regionalagenda of checking Iran’s ambitions, confronting terrorism and religiousextremism, and collaborating with Russia, as well as on other regional

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issues (which Trump has hardly addressed to date), ranging from thesearch for a peaceful settlement in Syria and stabilizing Lebanon torebuilding closer ties with Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Yet, to date, Trump’shoneymoons have neither proven lasting nor been immune to distractions.Will things be very different in U.S.-Israeli relations once he becomespresident?

Viewed from Jerusalem, the answer is uncertain despite favorable signs.Might Trump, once he enters the Oval Office, adopt an agenda that deviatesfrom his campaign statements? Might his key appointees who deal withIsrael be less enthusiastic about a renewed relationship, given that theymay come from outside the traditional talent pool of the Republican (orDemocratic) Party and hence not be accustomed to a close workingrelationship with Israel? Could some of his other foreign policy decisionsundermine U.S. capacity to lead the free world, thereby weakening itscapacity to provide Israel with a political and strategic umbrella?

Ironically, though, the biggest challenge for Netanyahu resides in thepossibility that Trump might actually stick to his electoral platform andreverse Obama’s policy on the Palestinian issue, applying more pressure onthe Palestinians to meet certain conditions for peace while holding backfrom condemning Israel’s settlement activity. Were he to do so, he wouldhelp incentivize the Palestinians to do more for peace but risk removing thesingle most important lever Netanyahu has employed in reining in theunbridled ambition of his extreme, right-wing coalition partners to destroyany remaining hope of eventually setting up a two-state solution. Thispossibility would force Netanyahu to choose between endangering hiscurrent governing coalition and mortgaging Israel’s future as a liberaldemocratic Jewish state.

IRAN: HAPPINESS AMONG HARDLINERS

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Karim Sadjadpour

Kayhan newspaper, considered the mouthpiece of Iranian Supreme LeaderAyatollah Ali Khamenei, reacted to the U.S. presidential election with thefollowing headline: “Another Achievement of Liberal Democracy: TheVictory of a Mad Man Over a Liar.” Yet Trump’s victory was actually thepreferred outcome of the militant men—Ayatollah Khamenei and theRevolutionary Guards—who control Iran’s deep state. For one, the United States’ image—and that of liberal democracy—has beenirreparably damaged. In a November 4 speech commemorating the takingof U.S. embassy hostages in 1979, Khamenei defended Trump againstcharges of populism and lauded him for exposing “the true nature ofAmerica.” Khamenei has said for decades that Americans live in a morallycorrupt, rigged political system controlled by Zionists; Trump’s words andbehavior regularly supported the former, while some of Trump’s mostvociferous supporters often corroborated the latter.

Obama has tried harder than any U.S. president since 1979 to improve, ifnot normalize, relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. This hasunsettled Khamenei and Iran’s hardliners, who perceive enmity withWashington as an ideological pillar of the Islamic Republic, crucial to itscontinued survival. Tehran’s revolutionaries won’t have to worry about howto deflect conciliatory letters and overtures from a Trump administration,nor will they have to justify to their population why a United States led by aman called Barack Hussein Obama must remain an implacable adversary.

For Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Trump’s victory is calamitous. Theentirety of his presidency was invested in securing a nuclear deal, which isnow in peril. During the campaign, Trump consistently called the Iraniannuclear agreement—known officially as the Joint Comprehensive Plan ofAction (JCPOA)—the “worst deal ever negotiated” and vowed to renegotiate

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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it. Trump’s top advisers, including former House speaker Newt Gingrich,have advocated “tearing it up on the first day.” In contrast to the Obamaadministration, there is little likelihood that a Trump administration willencourage foreign investment in Iran to increase Tehran’s satisfaction withthe nuclear deal and help Rouhani get reelected in May 2017. For Iranian civil society, Trump is the worst of both worlds. He will likelyprovide Iran’s hardliners a pretext to be even more repressive—under theguise of national security. Yet in contrast to many Republican politicians,Trump has expressed no interest in supporting human rights anddemocracy overseas.

“The opportunity of defeating the enemy,” wrote the celebrated Chinesemilitary strategist Sun Tzu, “is provided by the enemy himself.” This is howIran’s revolutionaries likely feel about the election of Trump.

SAUDI ARABIA: BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

Frederic Wehrey

Anyone would be better than Obama, the Saudis told themselves. Obamahad chided them as “free riders,” admonished them to undertake domesticreform, and, most egregiously, seemed to downplay their alarm about Iran’sregional aggression. But now, Riyadh faces the uncertainty of a U.S.president who’s leveled the “free rider” charge even more stridently, makingno secret his contempt for the Saudis as hangers-on. “What I really mind,though,” Trump said of the kingdom in August 2015, “is we back it attremendous expense. We get nothing for it.”

Still, the Saudis could warm to a Trump administration. Personalrelationships define Saudi ties to the White House, and the Saudis couldwelcome Trump as a relief from the cool detachment they had encountered

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in Obama. Much will hinge on interactions in the first weeks and months ofhis term. Trump the Decider could be a welcome change from what Riyadhperceived as too much caution and deliberativeness on Obama’s part.Trump also speaks an authoritarian language familiar to the Saudis, and hewill likely not press them on human rights and political reform. Hisbusiness sensibility bodes well for continued, conditions-free arms sales tothe Gulf.

Trump’s counterterrorism views align with those of the Saudis. They arelikely to overlook, to an extent, his campaign utterances on Muslims assloganeering and, on a practical level, approve of his stated intention tofocus on combating Islamist ideology and political Islam as a wellspring ofterrorism. Such an approach (in contrast to Obama’s prescriptions forgreater political openness) would align with the Saudi strategy ofpromoting a quietist form of Islamic orthodoxy as an antidote to violentradicalism.

It is on the issue of Iran where the Saudis take the most comfort—withqualifications. They applaud Trump’s threat to overturn the Iranian nucleardeal, which they saw as a bait-and-switch that left them dangerouslyexposed to Iran’s hegemonic advances. The key question now is whetherTrump’s rejection or revision of the Iran deal would be accompanied byU.S. commitments to defend the kingdom against Iran. Trump has madefanciful and sometimes contradictory statements about U.S. troopdeployments in the region. And any economic quid pro quo he woulddemand from the Saudis in exchange for U.S. protection comes at a timewhen the Saudis are already facing extraordinary pressures at home due tolow oil prices.

Trump’s views on Syria have caused the most consternation in Riyadh.Trump’s realpolitik on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russianpatron—and his professed willingness to work with them against the

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Islamic State—runs counter to the Saudi aim of overthrowing the Syriandictator. Riyadh will be closely watching Trump’s apparent warmth towardPutin to see if it evolves into an acceptance and even a welcoming of greaterRussian influence in the Middle East, which would be felt not just in Syriabut in Egypt, Libya, and the Gulf itself.

Like other U.S. allies, the Saudis are struggling to gauge whether and howTrump’s administration can turn his disruptive and sometimes alarmistrhetoric into policy amid regional realities, limits on U.S. power, andinstitutional constraints.

EGYPT: EXPECTING GREATER FORBEARANCE

Amr Hamzawy

The tensions that arose between Washington and Cairo in recent years overEgypt’s deteriorating human rights situation appear likely to diminish afterTrump assumes the U.S. presidency. Trump stated several times during hiselection campaign that his priorities with regard to Egypt will be helping itsgovernment in the fight against “Islamic terrorism” and “fundamentalistIslam.” The Egyptian government expects therefore that with Trumpcoming to power, counterterrorism cooperation with Washington willstrengthen, restrictions on military aid and arms sales will ease, and U.S.diplomatic endorsement of Egyptian security policies will solidify.

Egyptian officials are hoping for greater cooperation on the economic sideas well, given that the country currently faces an existential economic crisis.After a period of uncertainty, the government has reached out to the IMFfor support in floating the local currency, reducing fuel and food subsidies,and introducing liberal economic reforms. Given the autocratic nature ofEgyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s rule and the expanded economicrole of the Egyptian army in recent years, the Obama administration has

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declined multiple requests from Cairo for financial aid. Egyptian officialsexpect the Trump administration to actively champion Egypt’s IMF dealwithin the fund and to be more forthcoming with financial assistance.

Unlike Obama—who has publicly questioned Egypt’s status as a U.S. allysince its military took over political power in 2013 and perpetrated large-scale human rights abuses—Trump sees in Sisi a powerful general capableof safeguarding stability in the Middle East’s most populous country and anally in the war on Islamic terrorism. Egypt’s grievous human rightssituation, including its repression of independent civil society and voices ofdissent, does not seem to hold any political significance for Trump. TheEgyptian government will likely perceive this new view from Washington asan opportunity to implement still more repression.

As a result, Egyptian human rights activists, civil society leaders, and voicesof dissent expect that Trump’s electoral victory will help Sisi obtain greaterinternational acceptance of his autocratic rule. They fear a new wave ofrepression aimed at forcing them into incarceration or exile and even lesspushback from Washington against such actions.

TURKEY: A MIX OF TRUST AND UNCERTAINTY

Marc Pierini

The initial reaction in Ankara to Trump’s election conveys a level of trust,but also uncertainty. The general message from Turkish authorities seemsto be a positive one and bears the hope that relations between the twocountries will deepen. However, behind the diplomatic facade, there isinevitably a degree of fear resulting from the perceived Islamophobia of theRepublican president-elect’s campaign. Turkish President Recep TayyipErdoğan has often fought hard against Islamophobic tendencies—real orperceived—in Western countries.

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On style, Erdoğan undoubtedly has a certain admiration for Trump’sperformance: his way of turning the tables against the traditional politicalestablishment, “reaching the public,” and capturing the “national will.” Onsubstance, the Turkish leadership will bring two priorities to Trump’simmediate attention: the extradition of Fethullah Gülen and continuedsecurity cooperation. Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım has already called onthe president-elect to grant the “urgent extradition of Fethullah Gülen, themastermind, executor and perpetrator of the heinous July 15 coup attemptwho lives on US soil.” Even if the Turkish government knows exactly howan extradition process works under U.S. laws, it felt that this was the firstand most important message to put out to Washington after the election.

To keep the U.S.-Turkish strategic cooperation at its current level, Erdoğanis obviously keen to continue benefiting from Washington’s and NATO’ssecurity umbrella, especially as regional threats still loom large at a timewhen its armed forces are still recovering from the July 15 shock. How thiswill be achieved remains to be seen. Turkey will likely want to continuehosting U.S. strategic assets at the Inçirlik air force base and participatingin NATO’s Missile Defense Shield (for example, the U.S.-operated radar inKürecik).

For domestic reasons, the Turkish leadership has refrained for several yearsfrom making a final decision on its own missile defense system, insteadentertaining a Chinese offer (non-NATO compatible), U.S. and French-Italian bids, and now perhaps a Russian bid for the same system. On thisissue, the uncertainty looms large on both the Turkish and U.S. sides.

THE IRAN DEAL: PERSPECTIVES FROM MAJORPOWERS

George Perkovich with Cornelius Adebahr, Alexey Arbatov, James Acton,

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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Toby Dalton, Mark Hibbs, and Tong Zhao

During the presidential campaign, Trump harshly criticized the Irannuclear deal and declared in a speech to AIPAC, “My number-one priority isto dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran.” Will he, in fact, do so after hetakes office?

Everyone acknowledges that the Iran nuclear deal is imperfect. At the sametime, practically all countries in the world—including Israel—recognize andwelcome the fact that Iran is fulfilling its obligations under the deal, asverified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. As long as this is thecase, the threat of Iran’s nuclear program is contained.

The nuclear deal represents a collective achievement of the United States,France, Germany, the UK, Russia, and China—the P5+1—and has beencodified by the UN Security Council. The sanctions that helped motivateIran to accept unprecedented, verifiable constraints on its nuclear programwould not have been so effective without the cooperation of additionalcountries that acted under the UN Security Council’s imprimatur. WhileIranians are frustrated that non-nuclear sanctions (related to human rights,money laundering, and terrorism) remain in place, and that risk-aversemajor Western corporations still shy away from the Iranian market, theP5+1 is fulfilling its share of the bargain and lifting specifically nuclearsanctions.

Thus, were the United States to threaten to break the deal or try torenegotiate it (which would amount to the same thing), the world’s majorpowers and largest economies—France, Germany, the UK, Russia, China,Brazil, India, Japan, and South Korea, among others—would consider this arogue action and vigorously oppose it. They would consider the UnitedStates to be in violation of the deal and would not feel bound to reimpose ortighten sanctions on Iran, as the United States might wish. Meanwhile, Irancould exploit such a U.S. move and threaten to or actually stop observing

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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nuclear restraints. The rest of the world would blame the resultant globalcrisis directly on the new U.S. president. This would not be a goodbargaining position for the United States.

Some opponents of dealing with Iran argue that the United States does notneed cooperation from the other major powers or the UN Security Councilto impose crippling sanctions on Iran. Unilateral legislation could punishany foreign company or country trading with Iran by denying them accessto U.S. markets, including financial services, or by imposing massive fineson them. A new administration, with congressional allies, could imposenew sanctions with this effect while saying they are not related to Iran’snuclear behavior and therefore not a violation of the deal.

Such sanctions might hurt Iran in the near term but could strategically hurtthe United States more in the long term. Other major powers would seesuch so-called secondary sanctions as a hostile and illegitimate act by theUnited States. They would argue that the United States’ financial powermust be contested to deter it from using this weapon in irresponsible anddestabilizing ways. This could bolster Chinese efforts to promote analternative global currency to the dollar and alternative internationalfinancial institutions. Moreover, excessive unilateral use of the sanctionsweapon would kill chances of Chinese and Russian cooperation incontaining the North Korean nuclear program or any other futureproliferation threat.

In sum, the EU, Russia, China, and other major powers will view the newadministration’s handling of the Iran nuclear deal as a key indicator ofwhether the United States will be a global coalition-builder to deter securitythreats or a rogue that needs to be tied down. The latter outcome, ironically,would benefit Iran enormously.

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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About the Asia ProgramThe Carnegie Asia Program in Beijing and Washington provides clear and preciseanalysis to policy makers on the complex economic, security, and political developmentsin the Asia-Pacific region.

About the Russia and Eurasia ProgramThe Carnegie Russia and Eurasia Program has, since the end of the Cold War, led thefield of Eurasian security, including strategic nuclear weapons and nonproliferation,development, economic and social issues, governance, and the rule of law.

About the Democracy and Rule of Law ProgramThe Carnegie Democracy and Rule of Law Program rigorously examines the global stateof democracy and the rule of law and international efforts to support their advance.

About the Nuclear Policy ProgramThe Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program is an internationally acclaimed source of expertiseand policy thinking on nuclear industry, nonproliferation, security, and disarmament. Itsmultinational staff stays at the forefront of nuclear policy issues in the United States,Russia, China, Northeast Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East.

About the South Asia ProgramThe Carnegie South Asia Program informs policy debates relating to the region’s security,economy, and political development. From the war in Afghanistan to Pakistan’s internaldynamics to U.S. engagement with India, the Program’s renowned team of experts offerin-depth analysis derived from their unique access to the people and places definingSouth Asia’s most critical challenges.

About the Middle East ProgramThe Carnegie Middle East Program combines in-depth local knowledge with incisivecomparative analysis to examine economic, sociopolitical, and strategic interests in theArab world. Through detailed country studies and the exploration of key crosscuttingthemes, the Carnegie Middle East Program, in coordination with the Carnegie MiddleEast Center in Beirut, provides analysis and recommendations in both English and Arabicthat are deeply informed by knowledge and views from the region. The program hasspecial expertise in political reform and Islamist participation in pluralistic politics.

About the Europe ProgramThe Carnegie Europe Program in Washington and Brussels provides insight and analysis

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on the EU’s growing global role.

Comments (4)

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Someone will have to disabuse president Trump about breaking U.S. participation in the Irandeal. If Iran is to be an ally of Russia and Iran in defeating ISIS in Syria, he must stay away fromthe deal already made. Concerning trade deals like NAFTA, I say go ahead and knock 'em dead,but he better not dare mess with the Persians on this. Without this deal, Iran might easily have thebomb by now, not that wiser heads in the country ever really wanted it. But it sure got the P5+1 tothe negotiating table.

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NOVEMBER 11, 20162:08 PM

Thom

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With Respect ; Mr Donald, President Elect , I believe he will walk softly, And have a big stick. Heis not a mad man or a bad person, he is an honest person that has used the allowed laws to createhis business. What he says he does. If the Nations on the planet did the same, instead of wineabout their current situations , that they allowed. Due to bad management and corruption withintheir own goverments. And the drive for global control through the one world order. which ibelieve will fail. As people do not want a world order to be controlled by a few of the super rich tocreate a population of slaves. Were not slaves, were people, we have dreams. We have our ownideas and do not want the ideas of a few forced upon us. So the bottom line is. Stop the bull andpassing the Buck and look at Russia, China, Britian, And now the United States. Fix your ownhouses, if the perspective goverments can't fix their house, No other Nation can fix it for them.Unless they wish to give up their sovereignty and become a part of the Nation that they want to fixtheir house. Its up to every Nation, to look to its own first. Then the rest of the world, If one looksto the world, one will lose sight of their own house. This is what has happened to most of Europeand the middle east. Gain the focus back, gain the trust of the peoples again. Be responsible toyour population, instead of milking them for all they are worth for the greedy pockets. For powerand control. Real power is knowing the right thing to do and doing it. Not lining the pocket with illgotten gains. and then blaming others for the crap. If a leader of a house is corrupt, then the houseis corrupt and one can only only expect corruption from his / her house and the leaders arescoundrels. So set examples lead honestly, Honorably, with Loyal action and thoughts to theNation's population. Most high goverment has let their own egos in the way of what is good for thepeople, as the leaders have separated themselves from the people of the Nation, Thus they have noleadership or Nation and longer. They, the goverments broke their own house. Mr. DonaldPresident Elect and the chosen team, will fix our house. As they should. And every Nation shouldlook to their own peoples and be one with the people. After all, if your not a part of the people howcan goverment serve the people?

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NOVEMBER 12, 20167:55 PM

Atrro

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The idea that the new US President is not an apologist who need not use anti-US interest-forces topucker up his private self-esteem like Obama-Clinton do as habit is a reason people will watchhim closely. He also seems less inclined to let so-called think-tanks (US epistemologicalcommunity in public are quite a shame) affect his judgment and that threatens the poor so-calledleft of their bread & butter of playing Gods and smirking about how kool-JERDS they are.Although he won't disband them. The lobby-groups & lobby-politics of the US drives the US downthe drain and tries taking the world along. Something the world should avoid and something thisPresident recognizes as a factor for the rapid US decline in the past decade. So while he won'tdisband the jerds, he definitely has taken the high out of their intoxicants - given most have beenwrong and shall continue being so!

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It maybe would have been better for Russia if Hillary Clinton had won the US presidentialelection. With Ms Clinton what you see and hear is what you get. You know what to prepare forDonald Trump is an unknown and it seems at times a contradictory person Hilary Clinton said“she’ll ensure the United States maintains the best-trained, best-equipped, and strongest militarythe world has ever known”. This was taken as a threat to those who oppose the US Donald Trumpclaims he will “Make America Great.” Are they both saying the same thing? Is he as big a threat toRussia and China as Hillary Clinton was perceived to be? Look at those mentioned as candidatesfor the position secretary of state in Trump’s cabinet John Bolton former US ambassador to theUnited Nations He has raised eyebrows with some of his hawkish stances. Rudy Giuliani formermayor and attorney general for New York Both are more hawkish than John Kerry and neither arefriends of Russia Jeff Sessions – is mentioned as possible defence secretary He was a supporter of

NOVEMBER 12, 20168:53 PM

NOVEMBER 17, 20167:01 AM

Lawrence Michael

jwp

U.S. Allies and Rivals Digest Trump’s Victory - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

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the 2003 US invasion of Iraq and is also no friend to Russia.

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