u.s. agricultural trade and its impact on transportation
TRANSCRIPT
U.S. Agricultural Trade And Its Impact On Transportation
International Summit on Agriculture and Food Transportation
Wednesday, December 3, 2008Floyd D. GaiblerDeputy Under Secretary Farm and Foreign Agricultural ServicesU.S. Department of Agriculture
U.S. Agricultural Trade and Its Impact on Transportation
Roles of Agriculture, Transportation, and TradeAgricultural Trade OverviewU.S. Trade Policy Doha RoundFree Trade AgreementsMaintaining; Building Markets
Conclusion
Truck Transportation
U.S. Agriculture is largest user of freight transportation Trucking handles: 90 percent of all U.S. food shipmentsNearly half of all grain movements in United States
Trucking employs 17 percent of nation’s workforce
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06Year
Rail Barge Truck
U.S. Grain Modal Shares, 1978‐2006
Source: USDA/AMS/Transportation Services Division
Transporting U.S. Grains
Transporting U.S. GrainsTonnages Of All U.S. Grains Transported By Mode
1978‐2006
Source: USDA/AMS/Transportation Services Division
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
Year
Mill
ion
Tons
Truck Rail Barge
Source: USDA/AMS/Transportation Services Division
6
Agriculture’s Value to U.S. Transportation
Net cash farm income on track for $90.7 billion, an all‐time recordStrong agricultural economy means more business for transportationBiofuels means opportunities, but poses challenges
7
U.S. Agricultural Trade
Trade Value ($Billion)
27.3
49.1
59.8
$0
$10$20
$30$40
$50$60
$70
$80$90
$100$110
$120
'87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09f
ExportsImports
Trade Surplus
Record79.3
82.2
70.1
115.5
36.1
81.0
98.5
17.5
Source: Compiled by USDA using data from Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
8
Higher Prices Drive $33‐Billion Increase, But Widespread Volume Gains
Also Important
$0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6
Fresh F&VTree nuts
BeefBroilers
PorkSoymeal
SoyoilCotton
SoybeansRice
WheatCorn
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
2001 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08
volume
price
Bulk Export Value ($Bils) FY 2001‐08
vol price
high-value products
Export Value Gains by Product, FY 2007/08 Value Chgs Due to Volume vs. Price ($Bils)
$19.2 bil.
Source: Compiled by USDA using data from Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
9
Top U.S. Agricultural Export Markets
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20
EU
China
Japan
Mexico
Canada
200820072006
Billion $Source: Compiled by USDA using data from Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce
10
Major Rail Entry Points for U.S. Grain and Soybean Exports To Mexico
11
Trucks are likely to compete with railroads for access to Canadian markets
Demand for trucking services for live animal shipments averaged almost 30 million head between 2000‐2005
Excluding livestock, 60 percent of total volume of agricultural products exported to Canada fall into seven categories
Canada Exports and Transportation
12
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250
ChinaIndiaRussiaMexicoBrazil
ThailandIndonesiaNigeria
PhilippinesTurkey
Households (in millions)
2004 levels Projected gains by 2020
Top 10 Developing Countries With Fastest Growing Middle Class
Factors Driving U.S. Agricultural Export Gains
Data Source: IHS Global Insight, World-Real GDP Growth Annual, October Release
13
Strong GDP Growth in the Developing Countries
Real GDP Growth for Developing Economies and the Former Soviet Union
Data Source: IHS Global Insight, World-Real GDP Growth Annual, October Release
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Former Soviet Union
Latin America
Developing Asia
Africa
Middle EastPercent
Projected growth
Data Source: IHS Global Insight, World-Real GDP Growth Annual, November Release
14
Trade Policy
Multilateral – Doha Development Agenda
Regional/Bilateral FTAs
Minimize Trade Barriers
“Competition for liberalization”
15
The Trade Agenda: WTO
75 7154 49 48
39 39 34 301225
86104
113
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
South Asia
Non-E
U West
Europe
Caribbean
Islan
ds
Sub-Sahara
n Africa
North A
frica
Centra
l Ameri
ca
Eastern
Europe
Middle East
South Ameri
ca
Southern
Africa
Asia-Paci
fic
European
Union
North A
merica U.S.A
vera
ge B
ound
Tar
iff R
ates
(%)Average bound agricultural tariff in
all WTO countries 62%
Source: USDA calculations based on WTO data
A World Without Doha?No Doha Means No Economic ReformNo tariff cuts AMS unchanged ($19.1); unbound Blue Box; no change in Green Box; no cotton reductions Export subsidies continue; export credits and food aid unchanged; state trading untouched
Farm Bill ImplementationNo Change in U.S. Position Increases Criticism and Challenges of U.S. programs “Circuit Breaker”
Bilateral and Regional Free Trade Agreements Even More Critical
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U.S. Free Trade AgreementsAustraliaBahrainChileColombia*CAFTA‐DRCosta Rica▲Dominican RepublicEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasNicaragua
IsraelJordanNAFTACanadaMexico
MoroccoOman▲Panama*Peru▲SingaporeSouth Korea*
*Awaiting Congressional ratification ▲Ratified, but pending entry into force
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Examples of International Engagement
Overcoming SPS BarriersOIE – BSE; A.I.
Monitoring and EnforcementTurkey‐RiceEU‐BiotechEU‐HormonesIndia‐Wine
Trade Capacity BuildingCAFTA‐Poultry
Maintaining Market Access
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Conclusion
Agriculture, Transportation, and Trade Share ValueExports Remain Vital to U.S. Agriculture
Highest Growth is in Emerging MarketsConclusion of Doha Round is Essential
No Doha = More Challenges to U.S. PolicyNeed for Continued Engagement
Adoption of Pending FTAsMonitoring and EnforcementAcceptance of Science‐Based Standards
Thank You
International Summit on Agriculture and Food Transportation
Wednesday, December 3, 2008Floyd D. GaiblerDeputy Under Secretary Farm and Foreign Agricultural ServicesU.S. Department of Agriculture