urgent actions needed to address emerging food security challenges
DESCRIPTION
International Workshop on “Climate Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia” Jakarta, April 20, 2011TRANSCRIPT
Urgent Actions Needed to Address Emerging Food Security Challenges
Shenggen FanDirector General
International Food Policy Research Institute
International Workshop on “Climate Change, Price Volatility, and Food Security: Perspectives from Southeast Asia”
Jakarta, April 20, 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Key messages
Global food insecurity persists, including in Southeast Asia
Food price volatility, biofuel expansion, and climate change are major emerging food security challenges
Urgent actions are needed to address these challenges
Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing global food security
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Many are still hungry despite progress
Source: Data from FAO 2011 Source: United Nations 2010
Number of undernourished persons
1990-
1992
1995-
1997
2000-
2002
2005-
2007
2008 2009 201060
80
100
120
600
800
1,000
1,200Southeast AsiaWorld
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Global food price hikes and volatility
Global hikes since June 2010• Maize: 90%• Wheat: 82%
Volatility due to• Natural disasters• Panic purchases• Trade restrictions, etc.
High domestic food inflation (yoy)
• China: 11% (Feb. 2011)
• India: 11% (Feb. 2011)
• Indonesia: 14% (Mar. 2011)Source: Data from FAO 2011
Mar-0
5
Sep-05
Mar-0
6
Sep-06
Mar-0
7
Sep-07
Mar-0
8
Sep-08
Mar-0
9
Sep-09
Mar-1
0
Sep-10
Mar-1
10
200
400
600
800
Maize
Wheat
Rice
US
$/m
etr
ic t
on
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Domestic prices are also rising rapidly
Source: FAO 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
High and volatile food prices affect food security, but outcomes vary
Source: Headey 2011
Self-reported food insecurity in select countries
China
India
Indonesia
Brazil
Pakista
n
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Mexic
o
Vietn
am
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2005/06 2007/08 2008/09
Pre
va
len
ce
of
se
lf-r
ep
ort
ed
fo
od
in-
se
cu
rity
(%
)
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Rising energy prices influence food security
Rising energy prices cause food prices to increase, rather than the reverse (Heady and Fan 2010)
Rising energy prices make biofuels more profitable, rather than agricultural production more expensive (Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)
Jan-05Jan-06
Jan-07Jan-08
Jan-09Jan-10
Jan-110
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Average crude oil price
US
$/b
arr
el
Source: Data from IMF 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Years to repay carbon debt for
9 scenarios of biofuel production (Fargione et al. 2008)
Biofuels raise food security and environmental concerns
Crop-based biofuels: compete with food availability and push up food prices increase CO2 emissions through conversion of e.g.
rainforests and grasslands
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Climate change adds to pressure on food systems
Increased intensity and rate of natural disasters e.g. droughts and floods
Large yield losses and production cuts
Climate change impact on production: Irrigated rice, 2050
SE Asia total production = -17%Source: IFPRI 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Natural disasters undermine food security
# of persons affected, 2009
Source: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database 2011
Negative impacts on the poor and hungry through:
crop and asset losses
agric. and non-agric. infrastructure damages
farm and non-farm income declines
higher expenditure costs, etc.
Disaster risk management should be integrated ex ante into food security strategies (Haen 2008)
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Urgent actions needed to address emerging food security challenges
1Promote effective policies and technology investments to minimize food-fuel competition
2 Provide social protection, esp. productive safety nets
3 Support transparent, fair, and open global trade
4 Establish global emergency physical grain reserve
5 Promote policies and investments to promote agric. growth
6 Invest in climate change agric. adaptation and mitigation
7Establish an international working group to monitor world food situation and catalyze action
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
20
40
60
80
100Transportation & CommunicationSocial ProtectionDefenseHealthEducationAgriculture
2005$int, bill 2005$int, bill
Invest in agriculture and smallholder productivity
Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database
Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Bangladesh Vulnerable Group Development program
Increased per capita food consumption by 45-66 kcal per taka transfer (Ahmed et al. 2009)
Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)
With access to both safety nets and agric. support, beneficiaries are more food secure and productive (Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009)
Nigeria Fadama II Development Project
Increased the value of individual productive assets by about 50% (Nkonya et al. 2008)
Promote productive social safety nets
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security (1)
Brazil China India In-done-
sia
0
10
20
30
MaizeRiceWheat
Share of global crop production, 2007 (%)
Source: Data from IMF 2011Note: Projections after 2009
Share of world GDP, PPP (%)
Source: Data from FAO 2011
0
4
8
12
16
20Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Emerging economies have a key role to play in enhancing food security (2)
South-South trade: Expanding
South-South FDI: ~1/3 of all FDI to developing countries
Emerging economies: promote technologies more
suitable for developing countries
provide buffer during crises
provide platform for mutual learning0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Agriculture and food exports to developing countries (US$ bil.)
Source: Data from UNCTAD 2011