upmanu lall columbia university
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Upmanu Lall Columbia University. Hydromorphology or Hydrology in an Ever Changing World : Role of water in planetary evolution at time scales of centuries to millenia. Example Questions motivating Hydromorphology. How has water influenced the history of man and life on Earth? - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Upmanu LallColumbia University
How has water influenced the history of man and life on Earth?
How has man determined the history, distribution and pathways of water?
How have climate variations and change determined water and life at different scales, places and times?
How has water constrained and determined climate? When/how will the human induced hydrologic
change dominate that due to climate, and in turn determine aspects of regional and global climate change and variability?
How can we assess or predict a hydrologic future for the 21st century to address impending concerns of water stress for man and life given potentially dramatic hydrologic changes due to changes in seasonal and long term climate variability and to human factors?
How will we manage such changes?
Nonstationarity?
Hydrology
Society Goals
Curiosity
Manage Variability
Design: Long Term Risk Management
Operation: Manage Residual Risk
Processes
Structure
Dynamics
Planetary Context
(bio-geo-human-systems)
Evolution
KnowledgeFluid MechanicsStochastic Processes
Challenges:
1. Spatial Heterogeneity, Scales & Continuum, Structure of Turbulence/Transport
2. Long Term Evolution (not much literature, except for climate)
Open or Closed System? Strong Feedbacks with other earth systems
A Semi-classical View
Do we have satisfactory models for long term evolution?
Climate Dynamics
Weather
Social Dynamics
Ocean-Atmosphere
Dynamics
Land Use Dynamics
Ecological Dynamics
Geomorphology
Demographics
Think about actual processes involved time and space scales, thresholds, intermittent or continuous
Other processes*
* e.g., Tectonic activity, uplift
A Restricted View of the Earth System
Hydrology
Climate Dynamics
Weather
Social Dynamics
Ocean-Atmosphere
Dynamics
Land Use Dynamics
Ecological Dynamics
Geomorphology
Demographics
Think about actual processes involved time and space scales, thresholds, intermittent or continuous
Other processes*
A Restricted View of the Earth System
Hydromorphology
Climate Dynamics
Weather
Social Dynamics
Ocean-Atmosphere
Dynamics
Land Use Dynamics
Ecological Dynamics
Geomorphology
Demographics
Orgaqnization time and space scales, thresholds, intermittent or continuous dynamics, system/state boundaries
Other processes*
Hydrology
A Restricted View of the Earth System
Non-Autonomous Forced Dynamical System
));((,( θyxx
tgfdt
d
A number of inter-acting stores state variablesForced by exogenous variables that are time varying (continuous or intermittent)Spatially averaged, discrete or continuous time
Focus (often): Fluxes, Patterns, Mean Residence TimesDoes this system have interesting dynamics?
Suppose we think of this system as a RLC network
Are the internal dynamics of x dominated by y? dynamics of y?
Analogies -- Role of R? C? L?
Are there strong +ve and –ve feedbacks across x
Nonstationarity in x Nonstationarity in x changes in y, changes in changes in y, changes in θθ, changes in , changes in f(.,.,.) or allf(.,.,.) or all
Dominant interest in Mean value – statistics of state variables Stimulus response modeling (spatial emphasis, short term)
▪ Event Models▪ Continuous Simulation Models
▪ Components can often be decomposed into separate models Slow components (e.g. groundwater) modeled separately (forced by fast
component model) and provide initial conditions for stimulus-response of faster component
Cumulative effects modeling is unidirectional and naïve – model formulation does not explicitly consider full dynamics or interactions across interfaces
Long term Dynamics – either in terms of statistical properties of state variables or parametrically determined by statistical properties of exogenous variables No good paradigm available for modeling long term dynamics
including feedbacks across key exogenous variables at appropriate space and time scales (we are in a discovery phase)
Hydrology “open terrestrial system” hillslope/basin scales response function to
forcing forecasts from initial and
boundary value problems Prescribed topography,
soils, vegetation, use, climate (rain, etc)
=> Stationary* probability distributions whether the problem is treated deterministically or statistically
Hydromorphology Interacting planetary “stores”
hierarchy “closed system?”
Regimes in space-time, predictability, transition, stability
Parametric evaluation of boundary value problems
Boundary conditions/interfaces evolve -- coupled
=> “holistic?” view of global and local hydrologic cycle and its dependence on changing conditions non-stationary, unless conditional probability
Weather Climate
Non-Autonomous Forced Dynamical System
))((,( tgfdt
dyx
x
But ….
Now x includes human population state variables, technology, infrastructure and income state variables as endogenous to the system
Human, infrastructure and river networks interact to prescribe both the evolution of the water state variables and the networks themselves
Prediction examples:
Long term evolution of population patterns in the river basin
Long term evolution of water and other infrastructure
Changing biota and landscape
Non-Autonomous Forced Dynamical System?
))((,( tgfdt
dyx
x
Now – as far as the water cycle is concerned, we could have closure
but many, many other “cycles” have to be accounted for
interactions across all planetary stores
human dynamics accounted for as endogenous
External forcing is solar radiation
Example prediction problems:
Gaia – Symbiosis across vegetation, atmosphere and humans through water?
Population density – spatial and temporal variations
The Greenhouse, the Thermohaline Conveyer, Abrupt Climate Change
Local Changes in Flood Frequency due to Urbanization/Land Use Change etc
Climate induced Changes in Floods
Nature, 2002
Nature, 2003
IWV(cm)
Atmospheric Rivergenerates flooding
CZD
Russian River flooding in Monte Rio, California
18 February 2004
photo courtesy of David Kingsmill
Russian River, CA Flood Eventof 18-Feb-04
GPS IWV data from near CZD: 14-20 Feb 2004
Bodega Bay
Cloverdale
Atmospheric river
10” rain at CZD
in ~48 hours
IWV
(c
m)
IWV
(i
nch
es)
Slide from Paul Neiman’s talk
SST Composites for Extreme Floods
Coast of Western US
Look for what happens by latitude
60 years per station, 50 stations
10 largest Floods
Washington
Oregon
N. California
C. California
S. California
10 smallest Floods
Wavelet Analysis of 1000 year sample of annual maximum NINO3 from a 110,000 year integration of the Cane-Zebiak Model with stationary forcing ( Clement and Cane, 1999)
2005 Headline
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 17 20 23 28 33 39 47 56 66 79 94 111 132 157 187 222 264 314 374 445 529
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
x 107
PO
WE
R
Frequency
Colorado River Compact Failure in the Absence of Lake Powell
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 12 14 17 20 23 28 33 39 47 56 66 79 94 111 132 157 187 222 264
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
x 1013
PO
WE
R
BOOTSTRAP SEVERITY WAVELET
Frequency
Colorado River Compact Failure WITH Lake Powell
RelativeVariance
Recurrence Period
1 5 10 20 30 80 100 200
Development Utilization Allocation
Hypothesis: In a given climate and technology, position on the river network has been a determinant of human population and its infrastructure development
Role of mean supply vs role of variability in space and time
Scale and Direction of Human Feedbacks
Global Population Growth
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200
YEAR (AD)
Po
pula
tion
in B
illio
ns
Most ecological species (w/o predators) have population growth dynamics that are not too different from logistic, with carrying capacity determined by local resources. Is water a likely resource constraint?
If yes, is it a local or global constraint?
How is it manifest?
Scoping the feedback, as a function of scale……….
Urban Forest Management(evapotranspiration rates)
Ring Porous Wood OnlyRing Porous Wood Only• assume 15 sq mi forest SLC assume 15 sq mi forest SLC • ~3 MG per day~3 MG per day• SLC indoor ~44 MG per daySLC indoor ~44 MG per day
Average Daily Vapor Pressure Deficit (kPa)
From: S. Bush & D. Pataki
Diffuse Porous
Ring Porous
Source: Craig Forster
Marshall et al, 2001
S. Florida – draining the swamps changes regional moisture recycling -- desertification
Rivers have undergone significant degradation in flow and quality as well
Width of Ganges at the confluence with Yamuna is now typically 3 to 4 km smaller
With all these benefits, it is not surprising that farmers and entrepreneurs have invested around US$12 billion in groundwater pump structures. This sum is huge, especially when compared with the US$20 billion of public money spent on surface-water irrigation schemes over the last 50 years
Water Table Decline >400 ft
Large Scale Irrigation changes the Monsoon?
Irrigation changed water vapor flux
A Proposal to Link Major Indian River Systems:$160 Billion Capital Cost
33 Dams (9 Major)
30 Major Canals covering 12,500km
34 million hectares to be irrigated (12x Area of Bangladesh) =30% of current
34GW of hydropower
Flood Control
Navigation
VIRTUAL WATER FLOWS (1995)measured in crop ET, cereals
EU (15) excluding intra-trade
Primary Challenge:What is important, when, where and how?
How to develop and test a suitable low order dynamical modeling system to understand the currency of water in global evolution
How can data sets be developed to support hypothesis development for long term evolution of the Gaia system
How can we learn and build from integrated hydrology structure-evolution modeling and data sets
Decomposition of Climate and Human Factors: Low frequency climate oscillations translate into systematically changing
frequency and intensity of precipitation and aquifer recharge/discharge. How are these manifest in natural and modified hydrology in different
climate zones? What are the dominant frequencies of response of different hydrologic
components? How do they depend on spatial scale and the spatial distribution of
development in the system? What are key climatic or development thresholds that lead to abrupt
hydrologic change?
Water and the Development of Societies – Agent/Environment Interaction: Does human “control” and development of surface and subsurface
water fluxes superposed on the pattern of climatic exigencies lead to emergent and predictable patterns or cycles of infrastructure development, hydrologic modification and climate impact?
Is the observed scaling of population density with area related to position on the drainage network, and the seasonal and interannual variation of hydrologic fluxes over the drainage network?
What is the role played by agriculture and ecosystems in determining water use and human population density?
How does the population distribution and scaling with area change as storage infrastructure and other technological innovations change the variability and scaling of hydrologic fluxes with area?
From Human to Water to Climate: How have regional hydrologic changes induced by human activity
modified regional climate? How does changing planetary temperature, terrestrial biota and
land use translate into changes in atmospheric water composition and the hydrologic cycle?
How do these changes determine a future planetary climate?