upi/cvoter international election day projections, 11/2

7/31/2019 UPI/CVoter International election day projections, 11/2.

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US_Projections@Nov_2

Vote Share Turnout Dem Ticket Rep Ticket Electoral College OBAMA ROMNEY

% Last Polls 57 53 46 Stronghold 223 180

Current Vote Projection 61 49 48 Leaning 30 55

SWING 4 -4 2 Total 253 235

Carried States Dem Ticket Rep Ticket TOTAL Average Swing OBAMA ROMNEY

States Carried in 2008 29 22 50+1 Rep Strongholds -2 1

States Lead in 2012 21 30 50+1 Dem Strongholds -5 4CHANGE -8 8 Toss-Up States -4 2

OBAMA 48

CVOTER International : US 2012 : Projections

OBAMA 253

ROMNEY 235

TOSS-UP

50

ROMNEY 48


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No State Obama_08 McCain_08 Obama_12 Romney_12 Obama-Swing Romney-Swing Obama_ECV Romney_ECV Total_ECV

1 Alabama 39 60 38 61 -1 1 0 9 9

2 Alaska 38 59 37 61 -1 1 0 3 3

3 Arizona 45 53 43 55 -2 2 0 11 11

4 Arkansas 39 59 39 59 0 1 0 6 6

11 Georgia 47 52 44 55 -3 2 0 16 16

13 Idaho 36 61 36 62 0 1 0 4 4

17 Kansas 42 56 40 58 -1 2 0 6 6

18 Kentucky 41 57 40 59 -1 1 0 8 8

19 Louisiana 40 59 39 60 -1 1 0 8 8

25 Mississippi 43 56 41 58 -2 2 0 6 6

26 Missouri 49 49 46 52 -3 3 0 10 10

27 Montana 47 49 44 52 -3 3 0 3 3

28 Nebraska 42 57 40 58 -1 2 0 5 5

35 North Dakota 45 53 42 55 -2 2 0 3 3

37 Oklahoma 34 66 35 66 1 0 0 7 741 South Carolina 45 54 43 56 -2 2 0 9 9

42 South Dakota 45 53 42 55 -2 2 0 3 3

43 Tennessee 42 57 41 58 -1 1 0 11 11

44 Texas 44 55 42 57 -1 1 0 38 38

45 Utah 34 62 35 62 1 0 0 6 6

49 West Virginia 43 56 41 57 -1 1 0 5 5

51 Wyoming 33 65 33 65 1 0 0 3 3

In Rep. Stronghold States 43 56 41 57 -2 1 0 180 180

CVOTERInternational : US 2012 : Republican Strongholds


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5 California 61 37 55 41 -6 4 55 0 55

7 Connecticut 61 38 55 42 -5 4 7 0 7

8 Delaware 62 37 56 41 -6 4 3 0 3

9 D. C. 92 7 87 9 -6 2 3 0 3

12 Hawaii 72 27 68 29 -4 2 4 0 4

14 Illinois 62 37 56 41 -5 4 20 0 20

20 Maine 58 40 53 44 -4 4 4 0 4

21 Maryland 62 36 56 41 -6 4 10 0 10

22 Massachusetts 62 36 56 40 -6 4 11 0 11

23 Michigan 57 41 53 44 -4 3 16 0 16

29 Nevada 55 43 51 46 -4 4 6 0 6

31 New Jersey 57 42 53 45 -4 4 14 0 14

32 New Mexico 57 42 52 46 -5 4 5 0 533 New York 63 36 57 41 -6 5 29 0 29

38 Oregon 57 40 52 44 -4 4 7 0 7

40 Rhode Island 63 35 57 40 -6 5 4 0 4

46 Vermont 67 30 61 35 -7 5 3 0 3

48 Washington 57 40 53 44 -5 4 12 0 12

50 Wisconsin 56 42 52 46 -4 3 10 0 10

In Dem. Stronghold States 60 39 54 43 -5 4 223 0 223

CVOTER International : US 2012 : Democrat Strongholds


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6 Colorado 54 45 49 49 -4 4 0 0 9

10 Florida 51 48 47 51 -3 3 0 29 29

15 Indiana 50 49 47 52 -3 3 0 11 11

16 Iowa 54 44 49 48 -5 4 0 0 6

24 Minnesota 54 44 50 47 -4 3 10 0 10

30 New Hampshire 54 45 49 49 -5 4 0 0 4

34 North Carolina 50 49 46 52 -3 3 0 15 15

36 Ohio 51 47 48 47 -3 0 0 0 1839 Pennsylvania 54 44 51 47 -4 3 20 0 20

47 Virginia 53 46 48 49 -4 3 0 0 13

In Toss-Up States 52 47 48 49 -4 2 30 55 135

CVOTER International : US 2012 : Toss-Up States

upi/cvoter international election day projections, 11/2

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