“upgrading life in historical towns – sustainable energy” energy efficiency

Department of Energy and Power Systems Prof.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić University of Zagreb Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

1

“Upgrading Life in Historical Towns

– Sustainable Energy”

Energy EfficiencyDubrovnik

October 3 - 4, 2013

International Workshop


2

Sustainable Energy and

Strategic Vision of Energy

Efficiency as a Source of Energy

and How to Support in National

Energy Efficiency Action PlansProf.dr.sc. Željko Tomšić

[email protected]

CROATIAUniversity of Zagreb

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing


3

An introductory thought…


4

Without secure reliable energy:

Economic activity is not possible Motive power for industry and agriculture IT for commerce etc.

Social development is not possible Lighting for education Refrigeration for vaccines etc.

Environmental degradation often ensues Alternatives are often local, such as biomass etc.


5

According to the UNA nation-state is energy secure to the degree that fuel and energy services are available to ensure:

a) survival of the nation,b) protection of national welfare, andc) minimization of risks associated with supply and use of fuel

and energy services.The five dimensions of energy security include (UN, 2007):

1. Energy supply, 2. Economic, 3. Technological, 4. Environmental, Social and cultural, 5. Military/security dimensions


6

Import dependence (of 217 countries)


7

Disparity in World Energy Consumption

75% of world population use 20% electricity


8

World Population, GDP and Energy Demand until 2030.


9

WHETHER ON EARTH HAS ENOUGH RESOURCES TO MEET THE GROWTH OF ALL NEEDS?

OR WE HAVE TO CHANGE OUR HABITS!


10

World challenges and interrelations


11

How much energy for 1 kWh of electricity?


12

Sustainable Development

Brundtland definition (1987)

“Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”

This implies that “secure” over the long term = “sustainable”


13

DRIVERS for SD – ENERGY SECTOR SPECIFIC

ENERGY SECURITY HIGH DEPENDENCY ON IMPORTED FOSSIL

FUELS PRICE - AFFORDABILITY ACCESSIBILITY RELIABILITY ADVERSE IMPACTS Energy market impacts

13


14

Dimensions of Sustainable Energy Development

EconomicState

EconomicState

SocialState

SocialState

EnvironmentalState

EnvironmentalState

State of energy sector

Impact from energy

sector

Impact from energy

sector

Responses of institutional Dimension

Institutional State

Sustainability is about overlapping environmental, social and economic requirements and the need to bring them all into harmony.

• When they were first built and inhabited, all pre-industrial buildings were, by definition, sustainable and made zero use of fossil carbon in both their construction and use.

• The primary energy sources available for the conversion and transport of building materials were human and animal power, and the biomass of available locally grown timber.

• Building, heating and cooking were almost entirely fuelled by sustainably sourced biomass.


15

Energy Efficiency has one of main

role in Sustainable Development


16

TODAY POLICIESENERGY EFFICIENCY IS ONE OF MAIN

PILLAR OF ENERGY STRATEGIES PRACTICALLY IN ALL COUNTRIES IN THE

WORLD (DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING)

• High energy costs• Rising (energy) costs• “EE Cheapest form of energy you can get”• Competitiveness


17

Influence of improved energy efficiency on other policies’ goals

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Climate Change

Mitigation

Improved Security of

Energy Supply

Economic Development

(Energy) Poverty

Alleviation


18

ENERGY EFFICIENCY

3 components of energy efficiency programme

1. Economical & Financial2. Technical

3. Human and organizational


1919

How energy efficiency improvements have reduced EU energy intensity during the past 35 years: It demonstrates that by 2005, “negajoules” (or avoided energy consumption through savings) have become the single most important energy resource.


20

“The EU is not on track to meet its target – energy efficiency”

European Commission: “Most recent projections show that with current policies we will only achieve a 10% cut.” (4 February 2011)

Source: European Commission* Gross inland consumption minus non-energy uses

- 20% by 2020 objective- 368 Mtoe

Most recent projection- 166 Mtoe

Business as usual 2007 projection

Prim

ary

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion*

, Mto

e

1400

1450

1500

1550

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

2005 2010 2015 2020

1676 Mtoe

1842 Mtoe

1474 Mtoe

Projections from 2007Projections from 200920% energy saving objective


21

EE policy development in Croatia

• The ENERGY Strategy is based on a paradigm that efficient use of energy is observed as a “new source of energy” («negajoules» concept);

• The goal of the Strategy is to reduce the energy consumption by implementing cost-effective measures of energy efficiency.


22

One of the strategic goals defined in Energy Sector Sustainable Development Strategy is improvement of energy efficiency in every part of energy sector

• Why energy efficiency?– Environmental sustainability

• reduction of environmental impacts of energy production climate change– Economic sustainability

• improved industrial competitiveness due to reduced production costs• improved security of energy supply by reducing dependence on imported energy, lowering

risks of energy supply disruptions and price fluctuations• reduced necessity for new power generation facilities

– Social sustainability• improved living and working conditions • job creation as a spin-off effect of implementation of energy efficiency measures

Energy Efficiency


23

EE policy development in Croatia

Energy sector development strategy until 2020 (adopted October 2009)

National EE programme 2008-2016 (adopted April 2010)

First NEEAP 2008-2010 (adopted April 2010)

Second NEEAP 2011-2013(adopted February 2013)

Master Plan 2007


24

Strategic vision: EE as source of energy

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PJ

BAU scenario Energy efficiency measures implementation scenario

Savings 2016: 19.77 PJ

Savings 2020: 22.76 PJ

“EE improvement in all parts of energy system is a backbone of the Strategy.”

Detailed measures are defined in National EE programme and NEEAPs


25

Preparation of 2nd NEEAP: principles and steps

• Qualitative (key success/failure factors)

• Quantitative (achieved energy savings)

Evaluation of 1st NEEAP

• Energy sector• End-use sectors• Horizontal (cross-

sector)

(Re)definition of sector measures • Expected savings

• Plans of energy companies

• Ex-ante M&V• Modelling

• Other impacts?Evaluation of

expected results

FER leader for 1. and 2. NEEAP


26

Successful measures in period 2008-2010No. EEI measure Evaluation of implementation Achieved

savings in 2010 [PJ]

Status in 2nd NEEAP

HouseholdsB.1 Building codes Implemented as envisaged 1,52 Revised

R.1 Info campaigns and EE info centers network Implemented as envisaged N/A Revised

R.2 Energy Efficiency Labelling of Appliances Implemented as envisaged N/A Revised

E.1 Individual metering and billing Partially implemented (not in the desired extent) 0,01 Revised

R.3 Financial subventions for physical persons Partially implemented (not in the desired extent) 0,003 Revised

ServicesB.1 Building codes Implemented as envisaged 0,64 Revised

B.2 Energy audits of boilers and air-conditioning systems Not implemented (regulation enforced in 2011) / Revised

R.1 Info camapign Implemented as envisaged N/A RevisedP.1 EMS in cities and counties Implemented as envisaged 0,33 Continued

P.2 House in order Implemented as envisaged 0,21 Continued

C.1 EMS in commercial services Not implemented as envisaged (only subventions from the Funds)

0,01 Revised

B.3 Certifikacija zgrada Implemented as envisaged N/A Continued

P.3 “Green” public procurement Not implemented as envisaged (some activities in 2010)

0 Revised


27

Unsuccessful measures in period 2008-2010

No. EEI measure Evaluation of implementation Achieved savings in 2010 [PJ]

Status in 2nd NEEAP

IndustrijaI.1 Industrial energy efficiency network Not implemented 0 RevisedI.2 Voluntary agreements scheme Not implemented 0 Abandoned and

integrated in I.5I.3 Energy audits scheme Implemented but only through

subventions0,03 Revidirana

I.4 High efficient CHP Implemented as envisaged / ContinuedI.5 CO2 fee Partially implemented 0,57 RevisedPrometT.1 Intorduction of EU standards Partially implemented 0 AbandonedT.2 Info campaign on efficient driving Not implemented 0T.3 Promotion of sustainable traffic systems Not implemented as envisaged

(only subventions from the Fund)0,01

T.4 Promotion of clean vehicles Implemented, but not sufficiently 0,07


28

Achieved energy savings in 2010

National indicative target in 2016 (PJ) 19,77National intermediate indicative target in 2010 (PJ) 6,53

Sector division of target

Sector target (PJ)

Achieved energy savings in 2010 (PJ)

Estimated energy savings in 2016 (PJ)

2010 2016Total(TD)

From measures

(BU)

Total(TD)

From measures

(BU+MAED)Residential 2,24 6,72 4,43 1,53 12,64 9,58Services 1,25 3,76 0,33 1,32 4,50 3,85Industry 1,12 3,36 1,21 0,60 4,93 1,99Transport 1,98 5,93 0,46 0,08 16,60 3,22Total: 6,59 19,77 6,43 3,53 38,66 18,64Percentage (%)(compared to ESD reference consumption) 3% 9% 2,9% 1,6% 17,6% 8,5%

BU - bottom-upTD – top-downMAED model - Model for Analysis of Energy Demand


29

Visibility, public awareness … hard to measure!


30

2nd NEEAP


31

Approach in (re)definition of measures: Synergy

Energy savings(emission

reduction, security of supply,

international commitment)

Improved standard of living

(indoor quality, energy poverty)

Economic recovery(employment,

entrepreneurship)


32

Existing buildings: key issue in 2nd NEEAP

National plan for renovation of residential buildings 149.38 million square meters of useful surfaces 1% renovated annually (1.5 million m2) Environmental Protection and Energy Efficiency Fund

National plan for renovation of public buildings 9.58 million square metres of useful surfaces 5% renovated annually (479,000 m2) HBOR and ESCO market

National plan for renovation of commercial buildings 32.80 million square meters of useful surface 3% renovated annually (0.98 million m2) HBOR and ESCO market


33

2nd NEEAP: other important areas

Energy sector Oil, gas, electricity and heat

Further strengthening of energy performance of buildings regulation Financial aid to physical persons (thermal insulation, RES, appliances,

vehicles) Industrial energy efficiency network Transport!

Eco-driving Public transport – infrastructure development E-mobility

Obligation scheme for suppliers To be proposed?


34

Challenges in implementing NEEAPs

Further legal developments EED transposition!

Implementing capacities Capacities in competent ministry Implementing institutions

Monitoring and evaluation M&V system

Co-financing Dispersed not programmed Commercial banks

Entrepreneurship EE not recognised as business

interest Underdeveloped ESCO market


35

Cost-optimal levels in Historical Towns!?


36

For the Discussion1. How much energy do we need?2. How much of energy efficiency potential is still to grasp?3. And why is energy efficiency so hard to pursue?4. Is it more costly to invest on energy or energy efficiency?5. What is the worrying trend? (Energy consumption,

population growth, life style improvement)6. What have we learnt from the past?7. Energy is too cheap to be worth saving 8. Time consuming and delivered in small packages9. Behavioural change

– The more you consume the cheaper it gets– Energy efficiency has improved (for example for fridges by 75%)– Size of average unit increased & Ownership has dramatically

increased


37

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing - FER

FER-ZG LIVING LAB: Smart City Zagreb

STRATEGIC GOALS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF FER: SAFE, CLEAN AND EFFICIENT ENERGY with emphasis on: renewable

energy, advanced energy networks, energy efficiency and ecology; information and communication technology to manage energy systems and their efficiency;

SMART INTEGRATED TRANSPORTATION, ADAPTED TO ENVIRONMENT with emphasis on: electric and hybrid vehicles, intelligent systems for managing vehicles and traffic, communications infrastructure and services in the transportation systems;


38

Thank you for attention!

Prof.dr.sc. Željko TomšićUniversity of Zagreb

Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing

“upgrading life in historical towns – sustainable energy” energy efficiency

Documents

computing department

energy secure

energy supply

energy services

energy planning

energy demand

source of energy

countries department