update on the state of the power system - eskom.co.za · pdf fileupdate on the state of the...

Brian Dames Chief Executive, Eskom

Winter 2012

Update on the State of the

Power System

2

Overview

The maintenance challenge

Trends in demand and supply

Managing a tight power system

Supply and demand side levers

Future focus

Partner with us

Highlights

• As we have said since 2009, the power system will be tight for the next five years and particularly in in 2012 and 2013.

• We have kept the lights on since 2008 - but Eskom cannot do it alone.

• We cannot continue the strategy of shifting maintenance on our power stations to meet demand.

• We are doing unprecedented levels of maintenance as we go into winter, to address the backlog and improve the safety and reliability of our power stations. Much progress has been made: our target is to eliminate the backlog by the end of 2013.

• Eskom has contracted new supply and demand levers over the past quarter, helping us to keep the lights on. We are looking to put new initiatives in place during winter.

• The first unit of Medupi is on track to deliver first power to the grid in 2013

• We thank those customers who have partnered with us, and Government for its support and active campaign for energy efficiency.

• As winter begins, we are seeing demand increase over the evening peak from 5-9 pm. We urge South Africa to save at least 10% - and to “Switch it Off” over peak.

3

4

6

9

3

2

1

0 0 0

3

6

9

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

TWh

Forecast annual energy supply gap

1 TWh is approximately equivalent

to the annual energy consumption

of 200 000 households

Note: This forecast assumed that all planned supply and demand levers were put in place

Source: Medium Term Risk Mitigation Plan (2009)

9 TWh is equivalent to ~ 1 000MW

of base load capacity

We took action to address the challenges

5

What we said What we did

We would improve coal handling and

coal quality to reduce load losses

We targeted to improve generation

output by 1% - 2% over three years

We would sign up about 400 MW of co-

generation and own generation by

April 2011

We needed to undertake significant

maintenance during summer

Demand-side management programme

in place to reduce demand and energy

savings

We would communicate with our

stakeholders on the state of the

system

Coal-related load losses have decreased over the past few months

but remain a concern at three power stations

In the last quarter, including the impact of Duvha unit 4, the

unplanned losses were 9.57% compared to 6.04% in the same

quarter last year

• 373MW Medium Term Power Purchase Program signed up

(320MW operational)

• 515MW of municipal generation contracted (160 MW reliable

performance).

• An additional 120MW of short term baseload contracts signed

up and operational.

The 12-month average for planned maintenance was 9.5% as of

April 2012 against a target of 10%. Average levels have been

consistently above 12% since January 2012, substantially higher

than in previous years. Backlog down from 36 to 26 units.

Realised energy savings of an annualised 1350 GWh between April

2011 and March 2012, with 125 MW of savings achieved through the

Residential Demand Management program. Demand response

aggregator project set to achieve 500MW by mid 2012. Short term

power buyback contracts for 963 MW secured from large customers

by April 2012, helping to create space for maintenance.

Extensive programme of engagement with stakeholders

1

2

3

4

5

6

1

2

3

4

5

6

Overview

6

Introduction





Future focus

Partner with us

7

The maintenance life cycle

Activity Cycle time (years) Duration (days)

General Overhaul (GO) 6 - 12 40 - 60

Interim Repairs (IR) 2 - 3 14 - 35

Mini – General Overhaul (MGO) 6 28

Boiler Inspection (BI) 1 – 1.5 7 - 14

Statutory inspection and test (ST) 6 35

Main steam pipe work 120

GO

BI

IR

MGO

BI + ST

IR

MGO

A typical coal fired generating unit requires certain necessary routine maintenance to ensure that it meets its technical performance requirements, is safe to operate and does not violate any environmental laws.

18

months 18

months 18

months

18

months 18

months 6

months

8

• Eskom does maintenance according to a schedule, to address safety, statutory, environmental and

performance issues

• We have to use all available capacity, including open cycle gas turbines, to meet requirements for

planned maintenance outages. Demand-side management becomes critical to provide adequate

reserves

The 2012 maintenance challenge

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

26 Mar 23 Apr 21 May 18 Jun 16 Jul 13 Aug 10 Sep 08 Oct 05 Nov 03 Dec 31 Dec 28 Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar

MW 12-month maintenance requirements

Maintenance required

Reducing the backlog

9

• There are currently 26 units in the maintenance backlog

• Target to eliminate backlog by end 2013

36

12

1

5

18

23

13

0 2

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Originalbacklog from

May 2011

Completed Underexecution

Scheduled To bescheduled

New backlogsince May

2011

Completed Underexecution

Scheduled Totaloutstanding

backlog (to bescheduled)

Units

High maintenance levels in 2012

10

In order to prevent the maintenance backlog from growing further a significant amount of maintenance

was done in the first quarter of 2012 compared to previous years. As we head into winter the high levels

of maintenance will continue and will place increased risk on the system for a few hours during the peak.

Planned Maintenance

% 2010 2011 2012

Jan 11.8 10.0 12.5

Feb 10.6 7.6 12.8

Mar 10.7 8.4 13.5

April 11.6 8.7 13.8

May 7.0 6.3 10.5

June 2.6 4.5 9.6*

Six-month average 9.1 7.6 12.11*

* Projected maintenance as of 30 May 2012

Overview

Introduction





Future focus

Partner with us

11

Winter is different

• Most planned maintenance is done in summer, when demand is lower, so that maximum capacity is available to meet

demand at winter peak.

• A colder-than-expected winter puts added pressure on the system: for every 1 degree Centigrade decrease in winter

temperature, electricity demand increases by 600 - 700 MW during the evening peak; a warmer than expected

summer increases air-conditioning load and demand can increase by up to 400 MW.

• All planning is done for average load and available generation over an hour. But load „spikes‟ for short periods and capacity must be made available just so that we can meet that demand

• This “ peak in the peak” can be 2 000 MW higher than the hourly average in the winter months

12

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

23:00 02:00 05:00 08:00 11:00 14:00 17:00 20:00 23:00 02:00

MW Summer & winter load profiles

Typical Winter Day

Winter peak is much

higher but for a

shorter duration:

forecast this winter is

just under 37 GW

Summer load profile is much flatter, peak

of 32 – 33 GW, so if there is a constraint,

the system is constrained for the entire day

34000

34500

350004

PM

4 P

M

5 P

M

5 P

M

6 P

M

7 P

M

7 P

M

8 P

M

8 P

M

9 P

M

Peak

25000

27000

29000

31000

33000

35000

37000

39000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

MW

Week number

Weekly peak demand (Jan - Dec)

2012 Total 2011 Total

Demand has been below expectations

• Demand year to date has been below forecast due to weaker than expected economic growth, demand side management initiatives and contributions from Independent Power Producers.

• We are still seeing the residential customers increasing their demand during cold weather, causing a significant increase of between 2000 MW and 3000 MW during the evening peak. This is equivalent to the combined usage of our SADC neighbours.

• The expected peak demand for winter 2012 is just under 37 000 MW.

13

* The Total refers to the sum of Eskom and non - Eskom power generation

• Eskom uses 3 600MW allowance for unplanned outages and production losses in the generation fleet, to cushion the system

• Unplanned outages running at higher levels in May 2012 due to boiler tube leaks, poor coal quality at some stations and delays in returning units after lengthy maintenance outages.

• However the trend in March and April 2012 has been better than planned .

Predictable generation fleet performance still a challenge

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12

Load

loss

(M

W)

Full and partial generation output reductions (May 2011 - 17 May 2012)

Partial LL Full LL Target

SUMMER SUMMER WINTER

Primary energy – system coal stock days

15

15

• Average system coal stock days are lower than the expected 42 days, mainly due to under-performance of tied mines at Arnot, Matla and Tutuka between January and March 2012.

• Under-performance at tied collieries supplying Arnot and Tutuka power stations resulted in both stations‟ stock days being below their minimum levels - sourcing additional coal. Both stations‟ stock days have stabilised and increasing

• In support of road safety, trucking operations were halted during the peak periods over the Easter weekend and the long weekend at the end of April.

• Over the last 5 months, improvements in coal quality related output reductions have been recorded at the priority power stations, i.e. Arnot, Matla and Tutuka.

Actual Stock days 2008 - 2012 vs year to date 2013

24.9 24.6 22.0

19.8 19.3 18.4 17.2 17.9

14.9 12.2

13.3 12.8

40.3 39.1 39.2

36.3 37.9

41.1 41.4 43.5 42.5

40.7 38.8 38.8

38.1 39.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

Sto

ck

days

Months

2007/8 2011/12

2012/13

16

Review of first quarter system status

Capacity Surplus 0 MW to 1000 MW

Shortfall 1000 MW to 2000 MW

Shortfall 2000 MW to 4000 MW

Shortfall Greater than 4000 MW

shortfall

Week Starting

Assumes: unplanned losses 3600 MW, reserves of 1900 MW, 1300 MW from open cycle gas turbines

Demand Forecast (MW)

Expected system status

Actual system status

(02/01/2012) 29758

(09/01/2012) 30854

(16/01/2012) 31958

(23/01/2012) 32037

(30/01/2012) 31357

(06/02/2012) 31613

(13/02/2012) 29203

(20/02/2012) 32044

(27/02/2012) 31902

(05/03/2012) 30907

(12/03/2012) 31902

(19/03/2012) 30907

(26/03/2012) 29364

(02/04/2012) 31324

(09/04/2012) 32463

(16/04/2012) 32463

(23/04/2012) 32434

(30/04/2012) 31749

(07/05/2012) 33692

(14/05/2012) 32434

(21/05/2012) 34248

OCGTs help to keep the lights on

17

• Open cycle gas turbines designed as peaking power, emergency reserves

• Running OCGTs (diesel-fired) costs 10-15 times as much as coal-fired stations

• OCGT usage in 2011 and to date 2012 higher than previous years, created space for maintenance

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

GW

h OCGT Monthy Usage

2010

2011

2012

Ending 7 May

Overview

Introduction





Future focus

Partner with us

18

Ensuring stable system operation

19

Ideally, 3 000MW of committed capacity from supply and demand initiatives is needed immediately to

keep the lights on and enable maintenance to continue. Reducing this target will require an adjustment

to the maintenance programme.

Between now and end-December 2013, the minimum targets set out in the table below need to be

achieved to prevent an emergency.

Immediate (MW) By July 2012 (MW) and sustained to

end December 2013

High load factor initiatives to bring

certainty to maintenance planning 1000 2000

Pre-Emergency/ Contingency/Peaking

initiatives 2000 1000

What has been done?

Signed power purchase agreements (PPAs) with two municipalities to secure baseload generation.

Secured available non-Eskom generation from customer base on a short-term basis.

Signed power buyback agreements, where we were able to remove base demand off the system, while some were deferred to the winter period.

Obtained voluntary co-operation over peak periods from large customers (at least 400MW)

Identified possible cross-border generation and signed PPA

Signed up a demand response aggregator that will ramp up to 500MW by July 2012.

Accelerating a mass rollout of technologies for residential customers to become more energy efficient.

20

Levers secured but more needed

Additional initiatives: Mandatory DMP, aggressive IDM initiatives, mobile diesel generation, coal quality improvement, state-owned company building efficiency

21

Short term initiatives

(Nov 2011 – Jun 2012)

Target

capacity (MW)

Secured

capacity (MW)

Operational

capacity (MW) Status

Su

pp

ly S

ide

Municipal Base Load

Power 515 515 160 Contract until 30 June 2012

MTPPPs (additional) 20 20 20 Contract until 30 June 2012

IPPs and short term

base load 100 100 100 Contract until 30 June 2012

Non-Eskom peaking

generation 120 40 40

80 MW falls outside pricing

mandate.

Cross border 85 0 0 Awaiting regulatory approval.

Committee on 29 May 2012.

De

ma

nd

Sid

e

Power buyback 1000 963 963 Contracts conclude 31 May

2012

Emergency DMP 200 50 50 Will increase once power buy

back conflicts are resolved.`

Pilot demand response

aggregator 500 38 38

Contracting customers to meet

ramp up target

Mandatory ECS - - - Long term initiative

Stand-by customer

generation 100 7 0

Process of signing up

customers

Residential Demand

Management 1000 125 125

Resource challenges. On track

to meet September 2012 target.

22

Verified demand savings (MW) per sector FY 2011 vs FY 2012

4 1

112

6

231

1

24

0.02

71

26

226

0

50

100

150

200

250

Agriculture Commercial & Corporates

Gov & SOB's Industrial & Mining

Residential - SWH

Residential & Munics

FY 2011 FY 2012

• Still significant scope for energy savings

• Incentive programmes in place

Supply and demand side initiatives to implement in the next quarter

23

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12

MW

Municipal Generation STIPPs Cross Border DRAPP RDM

Lever Target

Municipal Generation 270 MW – extend contracts until December 2013

Short Term Base Load IPPs 120 MW - extend contracts until December 2012

Cross Border Project 93 MW by July 2012

Residential Demand Mass Roll Out Program 1000 MW by September 2012

Demand Response Aggregator Pilot 500 MW by end July 2012

Projected system outlook

24

3600 MW UCLF, 1300

MW OCGT 4500 MW UCLF, 1300

MW OCGT

NO additional Initiatives

Likely Initiatives

NO additional Initiatives

Likely Initiatives Date

Demand Forecast

Maintenance

Mon 28-May-12 34443 3855

Thu 07-Jun-12 34914 3967

Thu 14-Jun-12 35219 3529

Thu 21-Jun-12 35453 3767

Wed 27-Jun-12 35847 3272

Thu 05-Jul-12 35964 2972

Thu 12-Jul-12 36428 1624

Thu 19-Jul-12 36987 660

Tue 24-Jul-12 36653 660

Wed 01-Aug-12 35581 1362

Mon 06-Aug-12 35397 1482

Mon 13-Aug-12 35627 1636

Mon 20-Aug-12 34915 2989

Mon 27-Aug-12 33966 3873

Tue 04-Sep-12 33620 3829

Tue 11-Sep-12 33524 3609

Mon 17-Sep-12 33390 3894

Tue 25-Sep-12 33488 3894

Tue 02-Oct-12 33347 4074

Mon 08-Oct-12 33292 4264

Mon 15-Oct-12 33289 4412

Tue 23-Oct-12 32890 4811

Wed 31-Oct-12 32730 4415

Tue 06-Nov-12 33297 4215

Tue 13-Nov-12 33115 4595

Mon 19-Nov-12 32567 4788

Wed 28-Nov-12 32430 5351

Winter sees more local power outages

• During winter Eskom and municipal distribution networks experience increased interruptions, mainly due to illegal connections which cause network overload and equipment failure.

• This is not related to the tight power system nationally

• In Gauteng during winter, localised power outages on the distribution network increase by 50%.

• Eskom and municipalities are working to creating awareness of the impact of illegal connections on safety and on security of supply.

• Theft of pylons a growing challenge, compromising security of supply

25

Overview

Introduction





Future focus

Partner with us

26

Update on new build

27

Project

Year to 31

March

2013

Year to 31

March

2014

Year to 31

March

2015

Year to 31

March

2016

Year to 31

March

2017

Year to 31

March

2018

Year to 31

March

2019

Total

Grootvlei (return to service) 30 30

Komati (return to service) 200 200

Camden (return to service) 30 30

Medupi (coal fired) 794 794 1 588 794 794 4 764

Kusile (coal fired) 800 800 800 800 1 600 4 800

Ingula (pumped storage) 1 332 1 332

Sere wind farm (renewable) 100 100

Total (MW) 260 894 2 926 2 388 1 594 1 594 1 600 11 256

New build projects on track

28

• First unit of Medupi is on track to deliver first power to the grid.

• Boiler pressure test on 8 June a milestone for Medupi – first such test conducted by Eskom since last unit of Majuba twelve years ago.

• Since 2005, we have delivered 5 756 MW of generation capacity, 3 899 km of transmission network, and 20 195 MVA of substation transformers. We have more than 17 000 people on site at Medupi and a further 12 000 at Kusile. The new projects are creating 160 000 jobs directly and indirectly and more than 50% of the spend is local.

Connecting Renewable IPPs : Quotation & Connection process

29

Obtain EIA for project

Request EIA for project

Submit Application

Form

Eskom

IPP

Process Application

Form

Provide Cost

Estimate Letter

2

1

3

Request Budget Quote.

4

Produce Prelim

Design & Cost project

5

Issue Budget Quote &

Connection Agreement

6

Accept Budget Quote &

Sign Connection Agreement

Perform (or Approve)

Detailed Design

8A

Perform Detailed Design

(Self Build Option)

7 8B

Connecting Renewable IPPs : Quotation & Connection process (cont.)

30

Eskom

IPP

Perform (or Approve)

Detailed Design

Construct Connection

Works

8A 9A

Test Generator.

Test and Commission Connection

Asset

10

Synchronise Network

Asset

12

Project Close Out

13A

Project Close Out

11

Construct Connection

Works (Self Build

Option)

9B

IPP Operational

13B

15

Overview

Introduction





Future focus

Partner with us

31

Energy saving for winter

• Electricity usage in the home increases significantly due to space heating, lighting, cooking and water heating

• Sharp peaks are experienced between 17:00 and 21:00

• To keep the system in balance, please:

• Only heat occupied rooms in the home

• Retain heat through ceiling insulation and drawing curtains

• Choose efficient heaters – gas heaters, infra red heaters, fan heaters and oil heaters. Under floor heating and wall mounted heaters are less efficient

• Reduce swimming pool pump operating hours and set timers to keep pumps off during peak time

• Switch off electric blankets once you go to bed (use only for pre-heating)

32

Partner with us

• 49M is an Eskom initiative, supported by Government, spurring an urgent need for all 49 million South Africans to embrace energy saving as a national culture, joining the global journey towards a sustainable future

• 49M campaign launched by Government and Eskom to create energy efficiency culture and calls for a 10% reduction in electricity usage

• Energy efficiency is not only a national concern, it is a global concern. Save power, save the planet and save your pocket!

33

Conclusion

• South Africa‟s power system will be tight for the next few years: the next two years are critical.

• Strategy of shifting maintenance can no longer be sustained. We are addressing the backlog but we need space to do this – reduced demand on the system creates this space

• As we go into winter the peak demand between 5-9 pm increases dramatically, putting strain on the system

• We need to save 10% of our current energy usage and remove 3 000MW from the demand urgently

• We need a partnership approach and need the support of all our citizens and customers.

34

Thank you

update on the state of the power system - eskom.co.za · pdf fileupdate on the state of the...

Documents