update on modeling cumulative impacts on the porcupine caribou herd don russell – december 19,...
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Update on modeling cumulative impacts on the Porcupine Caribou Herd
Don Russell – December 19, 2013
Overall objective of the project
• Establish cumulative effects monitoring approach
• Identify thresholds of disturbance for Porcupine herd
• Combine historic monitoring and industry • Determine impact of human and natural
factors on Porcupine population and/or habitat
Our approach
• Bathurst caribou live in a complex ecosystem• We model caribou at the individual (fat and
protein cycle) and population (growth and decline) scale
• Our main question “How have caribou evolved to exploit their environment and how does change impact that system?”
WARM/COOL JUNEEARLY/LATE SNOWMELT
WARM/COOL TEMPERATURESHIGH/LOW BIOMASSHIGH/LOW NITROGENLOW/HIGH insects
LATE/EARLY SNOWFALLGOOD/BAD MUSHROOMS
NO/SOME FREEZING RAINLOW/HIGH SNOW
SHALLOW/DEEP SNOWNO/SOME RAIN-ON-SNOW
EARLY/LATE SNOWMELTFEW/MANY FREEZE-THAW
ENERGY-PROTEIN MODEL
FOOD INTAKEENERGY/PROTEIN COST
COW GROWTHWEANING STRATEGY
BIRTH WEIGHTCALF GROWTH
FOOD INTAKEENERGY/PROTEIN COST
COW GROWTHWEANING STRATEGY
BIRTH WEIGHTCALF GROWTH
PREGNANCY RATEBIRTH RATE
CALF SURVIVAL COW SURVIVAL
1002 development zone
NEAR MINE SITE
EAGLE PLAINS OIL ACTIVITY
NEAR DEMPSTER HIGHWAY
BO
DY
WEIG
HT
CALVINGLATE
SPRINGEARLY
SUMMER
EARLYFALL
RUT
WEANING STRATEGY
XX
P
P
PP
B
++-
Post-natal
Summer FallExtended
Normal
Modeling approach 1 –How does caribou condition change
naturally?Compare:• Changes in winter
snow depth• Summer insects
– Average baseline– 10 and 20 % less
• To:• Cow fall body
weight• Calf fall body
weight
…some results
insect -20% insect -10% insect10 insect20
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
INSECTS% Change in fall calf and cow
weight cows calves
snowdepth-20 snowdepth-10 snowdepth10 snowdepth20
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
SNOWDEPTH% Change in fall calf and cow
weight cows calves
Modeling approach 2 –What is the added development impacts ?
• Caribou exposed to 20 days in a development zone in February and 20 days in July
• When in zone:– they walk 3% more and
run 3% more– Feed 6% less– When feeding they
spend 5% less time actually ingesting food (they are nervous)
• To:• Cow fall body
weight• Calf fall body
weight• Change in the # of
“normal weaners”
..what is impact of development on cows
insect -20%insect -10%
insect10insect20
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
Insects - Development cost to fall COW body weight
snowdepth-20snowdepth-10
snowdepth10snowdepth20
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
Snow depth - Development cost to fall COW body weight
Impact of development on calves
insect -20%insect -10%
insect10insect20
45.00
46.00
47.00
48.00
49.00
50.00
51.00
52.00
53.00
54.00
55.00
Insects - Development cost to fall CALF body weight
snowdepth-20snowdepth-10
snowdepth10snowdepth20
45.00
46.00
47.00
48.00
49.00
50.00
51.00
52.00
53.00
Snow depth - Development cost to fall CALF body weight
How does the % of NORMAL weaners change from baseline conditions when exposed to CC and development?
baselinebiomass20biomass10
biomass-10biomass-20
insect-20insect-10insect10insect20
snowdepth-20snowdepth-10snowdepth10snowdepth20
spring T4spring T2
spring T-2spring T-4
summer T4summer T2summer-2summer-4
-60.00 -50.00 -40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00
PREGNANCY RATEBIRTH RATE
CALF SURVIVAL COW SURVIVAL
SEX RATIOPREDATIONHARVEST
HERD GROWTH OR DECLINE
POPULATION MODEL
APPLYING OUR WORK TO PORCUPINE CARIBOU
• Project impacts of potential development scenarios
• Assess effectiveness of project mitigation options• Cooperate in developing development thresholds• Provide input into Harvest Management Planning• Assist in developing a monitoring program
…a word about monitoring
60 70 80 90 100 110 12040
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
MODELED FALL COW WEIGHT versus FALL CALF WEIGHT
DEVELOPMENT CLIMATE VARIABILITY
How to go forward with PCMB
• Need to get beyond Don making periodic updates• A major value of the approach is a discussion tool• We need to “workshop” the project:
– Held periodically with small discrete topics– Devise and assess implications of some real or hypothetical
development scenarios– Work with PCTC on how to project could impact monitoring– Discuss use of model in Harvest Management gatherings– Development thresholds can be practical, biological,
societal: need to discuss how to utilize modeling approach