upcoming events - pmi queensland · upcoming events april gold coast chapter meeting 26th april...

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Upcoming Events

April Gold Coast Chapter Meeting

26th April 2016

Southport Yacht Club – 5:45-8:30pm

PMIQ Toastmasters

21st March 2016 @ 5:30pm

Lvl 28, Brisbane Square, 266 George St

www.easy-speak.org

PMIQ Job Club

Date TBC

Brisbane Square Library, George St

LinkedIn Group: PMIQ Job Club

24 members have found jobs!

April Brisbane Chapter Meeting

Rod Snowden

Author of Managing Successful Programmes

26th April 2016

Venue TBC – 5:45-8:30pm

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmarch

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Welcome to the

March 2016 Brisbane Event

Making Project Management indispensable for

business results.®

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Agenda

5:45 – 6:00 Drinks & Nibbles

6:00 – 6:05 Welcome – David Lockley

6:05 – 6:10 Upcoming Events – David Wright (QVC)

6:10 – 6:15 Volunteering Opportunities – Maria Robbins

6:15 – 6:20 Professional Development Update – David Lockley

6:20 – 6:30 Industry Engagement Update – Gillian Deane

6:30 – 7:15 Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments

Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A

7:30 – 8:30 Networking

Join the conversation: @pmiqld #pmiqld #pmiqldmar

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Agenda








Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A



5www.qvcsolutions.com

QVC Solutions presents Rod Sowden

Rod Sowden is a Global leader in the field of ProgramManagement andCapability Maturity Management.

Rod has authored 8 publications including the P3M3® capabilitymaturity model.

Rod is QVC Solutions trusted partner and will be presenting atseveral events across Brisbane and Melbourne.


Brisbane Events

22nd AprilPractitioner Seminar with Rod Sowden and Dave Wright9.00am – 12.00pmChristie Building, Adelaide Street, BrisbaneTarget Audience: Practitioners - $195 or $150 for PMI Members

26th AprilSuccessful Implementation of Strategies through Project and Portfolio Management 7am – 9amTattersalls Club, Queen Street, BrisbaneTarget Audience: Senior Management (Invitation Only Event)


Brisbane Events

26th AprilCommunity of Practice – Program and Benefit Management Insights10am111 George Street Target Audience: Practitioners (Invite Only)

26th AprilInsights from Leading Author of MSP® and P3M3®Rod SowdenPMI Chapter Event


Melbourne Events

28th AprilSuccessful Implementation of Strategies through Project and Portfolio Management 7am – 9am Crown Promenade, MelbourneTarget Audience: Senior Management (Invitation Only)

28th AprilInsights from Leading Author of MSP® and P3M3®Rod SowdenPMI Chapter Event


Should you wish to attend any of our events, please [email protected] and we will be in touch.

mailto:[email protected]

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Agenda








Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A



Volunteer Engagement Team Vacancies EOI

• We are seeking Expressions of Interest from members who wish to volunteer in leadership roles in the

Chapter. Specifically we are looking for a Volunteer Engagement Associate Director/Portfolio Lead and

several Volunteer Engagement Team Members.

• The Volunteer Engagement Associate Director/Portfolio Lead:

– Builds and leads the VE Team to support the attraction, recruitment, and retention of our 70+

volunteers

– Implements the Board’s Volunteer Engagement Strategy

– Is a member of the PMIQ Leadership Team

• The Volunteer Engagement Team Members:

– Manage all interactions and engagement with candidate and established volunteers, supporting

them through the lifecycle of their work as volunteers. This includes all attraction, recruitment and

retention processes.

– Each team members has a specific role to fulfill (e.g. responding to volunteer enquiries, advertising

roles, supporting selection processes, arranging volunteer appreciation events).

• If you are interested in these roles please email your resume and cover letter to Maria Robins at

[email protected] by COB Sunday 20 March.

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mailto:[email protected]

Standards Overview Presentation 12

Agenda








Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A



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Professional Development

PMI Queensland Chapter, Brisbane

PMIQ is here to assist you become a well rounded project professional

through your career.

Traditional Approach:

• Technical skills e.g.

• PMP

• CAPM

New:

• Leadership skills

• Strategic and Business Management

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Professional Development

PMI Queensland Chapter, Brisbane

For more details: [email protected]

What does the portfolio want to do?

• Study Groups: PMP etc.

• Recommended Education Providers (REP) Liaise to assist members

• Certifications: What is available for members?

• Professional Development Units (PDU): How do you earn them?

• Mentoring: Help us grow into better project professionals

How do we achieve this?

YOU – Please volunteer

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Agenda








Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A



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PMIQ Portfolio Update – March 2016

- Industry Engagement & Sponsorship

David Close

Associate Director – Industry

PMIQ Industry Engagement Team

• David Close – Associate Director

• Gillian Deane – Associate

• Nathan King – Associate

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PMIQ Industry Engagement Team* and Relationships

David CloseAssociate Director - Industry

Gillian DeaneAssociate - Industry

Nathan KingAssociate – Industry

* Opportunities available in IE roles

PMI Region 10 (Australasia)

PMIQ Board

PMI Leadership Team

IndustryExecutive Leaders

• Forums with C-level Executives• National & Global Companies• National & Global Sponsors

PMI

Queensland

Australiasia

PMI

Australia

Chapters

Australian

& Global

Companies

Relationships

• Region Meetings & Portfolio Calls• Regional Initiatives

• PMI Australia-wide initiatives• National Executive Roadshows

• PMIQ Initiatives (Strategy Day)

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Focus areas:

• PMIQld – Establishing relations and forums with national and international companies

• PMI Aust Chapters – Building relations and forums with other chapters for forums

Forums so far 2015-16

• Brisbane – Executive Breakfasts – a) Prior and b) During the PMIAC15 Conference

• Gold Coast – Forum with 50 x Project Managers at Gold Coast City Council

• NASA Executive Breakfast Roadshows (6 cities) – allAboutXpert

- >1k attendees; 200 each city - Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra, Adelaide, Perth

- Attended by Executives incl Qld Minister for Innovation, Science and Digital Economy

Benefits for PMIQ Members

• Extend your reach and networking with Executives and Practitioners

• Thought-leading topics with International and National experts

March 2016 Update – PMIQ Industry Engagement

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Industry Forum with International P3M3 and MSP Expert

• Brisbane and Melbourne - Week 4 April - 26 – 29/04/2016

• Topic: Successful implementation of Strategies through Project & Portfolio Management

• Speaker: Rod Sowden - P3M3 Expert and MSP Lead Author

• Audience: C-level Executive events and Practitioner events

• Locations: 6 events => Brisbane (3 events); Melbourne (3 events)

• Events x 3: 1. Executive Breakfast 2. PMI Chapter event 3. Workshop with the

Expert

Benefits for PMIQ Members

• Discounts for PMI Members

• Networking with Executives and Practitioners

Upcoming – Rod Sowden (International Speaker)

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Activities in the Industry Engagement Team

A. Engaging Executives across Industry

David Close– Building relations with Industry Leaders – Executives

– Building relations with other PMI Australia Chapters

- PMI Melbourne | PMI Sydney | PMI Adelaide | PMI WA | PMI Canberra

– Current topics – Global Companies, Universities, Commonwealth Games

Gillian Deane and Nathan King– Support building relations with Industry Leaders, Executives and Sponsors

– Account Managers with Companies and Sponsors

B. Benefits for PMIQ Members from IE Activities

• Increase Knowledge through Thought-leadership forums

• Increase Networks with C-level Executives and Practitioners

C. Be a Volunteer in the IE Team

• Build your career & brand through the activities and reach of the PMIQ IE team

• Increase Networks with C-level Executives and Practitioners

• Cross skill between Portfolios – eg Dave Lockley: Industry Engagement => Prof Dev

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Agenda








Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A



Material Courtesy of Warren Black – Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, QUT Engineering & Science Faculty 2016

Controlling Risks

in Complex-Uncertain

Project Environments

Warren Black

PMI Chapter Event

Brisbane, Queensland

March 17th, 2016


IceBreaker – Heuristics & Cognitive Bias


IceBreaker – Heuristics & Cognitive Bias

People tend to only see that which they are trained to see…

thereby ignoring all other possibilities


Introduction

Today we are going to explore the relationship

between Project Uncertainty, Complexity & Risk;

Uncertainty is the relative degree of

environmental “unknowns” in play

Complexity is the relative degree of

interdependent relationships in play

Risk is the relative degree of material

threats/opportunities in play


The evolution of project complexity

Earths Population

Fastest Manned Travel

Buildings

Infrastructure

Information Technology

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

9.5Bn

Mars Coloniser

(>60,000km/h)

Dubai City Tower?

2400M

Interstellar

Colonisation

Inter Planetary Satellite

Communication

1.5Bn

Steam Train

(>100km/h)

Strasbourg Cathedral

150M

Continental Train

Networks

Continental Wire

Systems

3.5Bn

Sonic Airplanes

(>1,000km/h)

Empire State

380M

Inter Continental Gas

Pipelines

Inter Continental

Telephone Systems

Year


Progress is Exponential!

1700 1800 1900 2000 20501600

We are only

here!


Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing

exponentially, and so too the demand for

global infrastructure

#2 Projects are only going to get more and more

complex and therefore more risky


The current reality… projects fail!

More than Sixty Percent (>60%)

... of the worlds most complex projects over

the past 70 years were observed to have failed

to come in either under budget, or on time, or

realising the investor’s desired benefits

Derived from benchmarking a data base of 2,062 large-complex projects across all

industries, in both private and public sector and across both technology and infrastructure

-Bent Flyvbjerg, Oxford School of Program Management


Prove it!

Back in the day…

Sydney Opera House (1400%)

Desalination plants (Victoria’s alone grew from $1Bn to $20Bn)

Queensland Health Payroll System ($10million to $1.1Bn)

Current projects…

Gorgon-Wheatstone ($30bn to $55bn)

*NBN

*Future Submarines

*QCLNG, GLNG, APLNG

*have experienced significant escalations, delays and multiple executive restructures


So what are the most cited

causes of project failure?

Poor PlanningToo heavily influenced by political need, cognitive bias, hidden hands

Poor Governance Inadequate capacity, capability, oversight & decision making to get things done

Poor Risk ManagementInadequate delivery systems in play to control all matters of performance & risk / traditional risk approaches are too dependant on “predicting” risks / the failure to adequately address uncertainty


Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the

demand for global infrastructure

#2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and

therefore more risky

#3 Complex projects fail at an abnormally high rate

#4 Poor risk & uncertainty management is believed to be one

of the three leading causes of complex projects failing


So why all the hoopla about

“uncertainty”?

Certainty vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & Risk

*DeMeyer, Loch, Pich 2002

*Four Degrees

of Project

Uncertainty

Relative Nature of

Risk & Uncertainty

Lower

Rational

Variability

Weather

Patterns, Labour

Availability

Moderate

Foreseeable

Variability

Economic Trends,

Political Shifts

Higher

Unforeseeable

Variability

Wicked Risks,

Black Swans,

Unknown-

Unknowns

Extreme

Chaos

War, Disaster,

Civil Unrest


The limitations of traditional risk

project risk management

Certainty vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & RiskLower Moderate Higher Extreme

Four Degrees

of Project

Uncertainty

Rational

Variability

Foreseeable

Variability

Unforeseeable

Variability

Chaos

The relationship

between Uncertainty

& Predictability

Predictability Uncertainty

Can anybody spot the issue at hand for traditional

project risk management methodologies?


Traditional risk management approaches rely

heavily on “predicting” risks in order to control them

Traditional risk management approaches tend to follow a

systematic “Identify, Quantify & Control” approach to

controlling material project risksISO 31000

PMI Risk

Prince2 Risk

APM Risk

PRAM

RAMP

COSO

Etc.

http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiBxsmV_rLLAhWGkKYKHQcdABkQjRwIBw&url=http://www.poyry.com/investors/governance/risk-management-and-control/risk-management-framework&psig=AFQjCNHmMVuvu3faT8z_DRgZxpx4CmcQGQ&ust=1457591649472596


http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj0ibma_rLLAhXF26YKHU4GDzMQjRwIBw&url=http://strikingprojectmanagement.com/qualitative-risk-analysis/&psig=AFQjCNE9EKQcvuR5cEDkslzcKOKu-GnJmA&ust=1457591659819899


https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjS3aWf_rLLAhUFeaYKHXjFC3QQjRwIBw&url=https://manticoreblog.wordpress.com/2010/01/06/project-management-is-a-serious-business/&psig=AFQjCNGJYBtbD3yY7lEE9R00wDcuk67O9A&ust=1457591669894002


https://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi5q86o_rLLAhUnKKYKHZE2CEEQjRwIBw&url=https://www.pinterest.com/pin/130393351682316788/&psig=AFQjCNFZv8GsVPVAws5Pv-W1JRQ-MfUsFw&ust=1457591689544407


http://www.google.com.au/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=imgres&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjol_Og_rLLAhVDE6YKHTeeBUsQjRwIBw&url=http://leadinganswers.typepad.com/leading_answers/risk_management/&psig=AFQjCNFehcgTuuhQpNoPXsgvJ7YeY7zXYA&ust=1457591673356780



The limitations of the traditional

“predict & process” project risk method

Certainty vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & RiskLower Moderate Higher Extreme

Four degrees of

Project

Uncertainty

Rational

Variability

Foreseeable

Variability

Unforeseeable

Variability

Chaos

The relationship between

Uncertainty &

Predictability

Predictability Uncertainty

The potential of

Traditional Risk

Management vs.

Uncertainty

Management

Traditional Risk

Management

Uncertainty

Management


Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the

demand for global infrastructure

#2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and

therefore more risky


#4 Poor risk & uncertainty management is believed to be one of the

three leading causes of complex projects failing

#5 As environmental uncertainty increases, predictability

decreases and so to the effectual potential of traditional

project risk management approaches


This learning is not new…

The Keynesian Argument

As uncertainty increases the ability to

proactively identify risks, within sufficient

time and context to be controlled reduces

Systematic risk forecasting techniques have limited

potential in complex economic environments due to

the significant presence of uncertainty. Treatise

on Probability - John Maynard Keynes

1921

1973 Complex planning environments bear those “wicked

risks” which simply can not be forecast before hand.

Dilemmas in a General Theory of Planning -

Rittel & Webber

2006

Within each complex project lies a broad range of

“unknown-unknowns” which can not be planned for

but must still be controlled Managing the

Unknown: A New Approach to Managing

High Uncertainty and Risk in Projects -

DeMeyer, Loch & Pich

2007

Risk forecasting systems are bias coping mechanisms

designed specifically to address “known risks”. They

support a flawed premise that “we can know all”.

Black Swans, the impact of the highly

improbable - NassimTaleb

The Cognitive Bias Argument

Cognitive bias’s impede one’s ability to

identify material risks as we only see what we

are trained to see and tend to ignore all else

1972Heuristics involve mental shortcuts which provide swift

estimates about the possibility of uncertain

occurrences. Heuristics often introduce "severe and

systematic errors“ due to cognitive bias’s

Heuristics & Cognitive Bias’s –Tversky &

Kahneman

1979 Planning is heavily influenced by cognitive bias’s. That is,

planning officers only identify what they are trained to

see. The Planning Fallacy –Tversky &

Kahneman

2011

In an age of ever increasing complexity, known bias

and escalated uncertainty; “common practice project

risk management is a bankrupt concept!”

How to Manage Project Opportunity and Risk:

Why Uncertainty Management can be a Much

Better Approach than Risk Management –

Ward & Chapman


Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the demand for global infrastructure

#2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and therefore more risky


#4 Poor risk & uncertainty management is believed to be one of the three leading causes of complex projects failing

#5 As environmental uncertainty increases, predictability decreases and so to the effectual potential of traditional project risk management approaches

#6 There is almost 100 years of “prize winning” theory telling us that predictive risk forecasting techniques are effectually limited


A reminder of the issue at hand!

Almost every globally accepted project risk management

standard advocates for a predictive, forecasting approach to

controlling risks in complex-uncertain project environments,

despite almost 100 years of risk theory telling us otherwiseISO 31000

PMI Risk

Prince2 Risk

APM Risk

PRAM

RAMP

COSO

Etc.












Ok so what now?

Projects need to move beyond…

Traditional project risk management: the art of

systematically identifying, quantifying and controlling

material risks

and become more inclusive of…

Project Uncertainty Management; the art of actively

seeking out, maturing and integrating those sources of

project uncertainty known to create material risks


Understanding the importance of maturing the risk

management approach proportional to degree of uncertainty

Certainty

vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & Risk Lower Governance

Systems Planning

Can anybody

remember the

three most

cited sources of

project failure?




Certainty

vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & RiskLower -

Moderate




Certainty

vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & RiskModerate -

Higher




Certainty

vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio

Relative Project

Complexity & Risk Higher - Extreme


The evolution of project risk management relative

to uncertainty

Project

Uncertainty

Management

Certainty

vs.

Uncertainty

Ratio


The “end-in-mind” for project risk

management in complex-uncertain environments

The need to establish a capable decision making

framework to provide oversight of all matters of project-

wide performance & risk

The need to manage a project within

clearly defined and owner approved risk

tolerances

The need to proactively mitigate risks

through robust upfront

planning; including estimations, designs

and contingencies

The need to enable effective project systems which may

deliver the required outcomes, whilst also proactively

identifying & controlling the associated risks

The need to independently test and

validate critical project controls,

performance indicators, forecasts,

estimations and data

The need to embed

a positive and project-wide culture

which promotes both greater risk

accountability and awareness

If you are going to attempt to enable a comprehensive project risk management approach,

then at some level all six of these uncertainty areas will need to be matured as most

project risks are borne from one or more of these areas being @risk


The Future of Project Risk Reporting?

Monte Carlo, Risk Register

& Heat Map

(aka assessing our project’s exposure to

predictable risks)

Uncertainty Heat Map

(aka assessing our project’s exposure to

unpredictable risks)

Our

Project

Is @

Risk!


Learning Points

#1 The world’s population is growing exponentially, and so too the demand for global infrastructure

#2 Projects are only going to get more and more complex and therefore more risky


#4 Poor risk & uncertainty management is believed to be one of the three leading causes of complex projects failing

#5 As environmental uncertainty increases, predictability decreases and so to the effectual potential of traditional project risk management approaches

#6 There is almost 100 years of “prize winning” theory telling us that predictive risk forecasting techniques are effectually limited

#7 As environmental uncertainty increases so too should the maturity of the project risk management approach


My challenge to you…test your own

project risk management potential!

1) Assess your degree of environmental uncertainty

2) Assess your project risk management maturity

3) “Mature & integrate” those areas of uncertainty which are at risk!


Closing thought

Our challenge lies not in finding new ways of thinking but rather; changing

the old ways of thinking


Research Biography

Warren is a qualified Engineer and Project Professional who advises Project Stakeholders in the enablement of effective governance, risk and assurance practices within complex-uncertain project environments.

Warren is currently engaged in a higher degree in research (PHD) on Controlling Risks in Complex-Uncertain Project Environments, within the Queensland University of Technology’s Engineering & Science faculty. The proposed research aims to deliver an industry tested and quantified view of how to achieve a state of higher risk management effectiveness in a major project environment. In particular, we are seeking to demonstrate the relationships, criticality and inter-dependence of such risk management enablers as programme-wide governance, risk appetite, systems, culture, assurance and planning.

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Agenda








Warren Black

7:15 – 7:30 Q&A



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and thank you for attending!

Please join us for drinks and nibbles.

Thanks to our Sponsors

April Brisbane Chapter EventRod Snowden

27th April 2016

Venue TBC

April Gold Coast Chapter Meeting

26th April 2016

Southport Yacht Club – 5:45-8:30pm

upcoming events - pmi queensland · upcoming events april gold coast chapter meeting 26th april...

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