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Source: Suez Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” July 2019

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Page 1: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

Source: Suez

Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez”July 2019

Page 2: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US

1

Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez” or the “Company”) on behalf of the funds the

firm manages (as of 18/07/2019).

Amber Capital is an alternative asset management firm that primarily invests in Europe and has approximately

$1.6 billion in assets under management as of July 1, 2019. Founded in 2005, Amber Capital is based in

London with offices in New York and Milan*. Central to Amber Capital’s investment methodology is the

combination of value-oriented, bottom-up fundamental analysis and a focus on catalyst-driven situations across

the capital structure.

The Investment Team is recognized for its European expertise, and ability to navigate the legal, socio-political

and cultural nuances of in the region. Amber Capital has an active shareholder philosophy and draws on its

expertise in corporate governance. The Investment Team engages with companies and relevant

stakeholders, endeavoring to build trust with the goal of unlocking unrealized value.

* Amber Capital UK LLP is authorised and regulated by the FCA and is registered with the SEC; Amber Capital

LP is registered with the SEC; Amber Capital Italia SGR, SpA is authorized by the Bank of Italy as an asset

manager.

+150 bps+300 bpsto

Page 3: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

2

1 - BACKGROUND 2 - BREAKING DOWN SUEZ’S

UNDERPERFORMANCE

3 - AMBER’S PROPOSALS 4. REPOSITIONING THE “NEW SUEZ”

Executive Summary – Amber Capital’s vision…….…........p.3

Suez: Company Overview……………………….….....…….p.4

Absolute and Relative stock performance……………….……..…p.5

Drivers of underperformance – the “Suez Vicious Cycle”……….p.9

Transition to the “Suez Virtuous Cycle”………...................p.19

Strategy reset through large asset rotation……....p.22

Improve corporate governance and alignment….p.23

Increase the medium-term visibility……………….p.32

“New Suez”: Higher Growth, Asset Lighter, Lower Leverage……p.34

Regression chart………………………………………………….…..p.35

Page 4: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

Higher Growth

Higher ROCE

Stronger Balance Sheet

Asset Lighter

Strategy reset through large asset rotation

Improve corporate governance and alignment

with shareholders

Increase medium-term visibility

No EBIT/Share or DPS growth since IPO

Misguided Strategy

Multiple Profit Warnings

Suboptimal Corporate Governance

AMBER CAPITAL’S VISION

3

Amber believes that the upcoming capital markets day is a key catalyst for the new management team to

demonstrate a path for value creation by unlocking the industrial potential of Suez:

“OLD SUEZ” UNDERPERFORMANCE

“NEW SUEZ”UPSIDE POTENTIAL

AMBER CAPITAL’SPROPOSALS

+150 bps+300 bps

ROCE Increase Potential the new management team can unlock through our proposals.

to

Page 5: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

Market Capitalization (28.06.19) 7,885 Reported ND/EBITDA’18A 3.2x

Reported Net Debt’18A 8,954 EV/EBITDA’19E* 7.5x

Revenues’18A 17,331 FCF Pre-Growth CAPEX Yield’19E* 11.7%

EBITDA’18A 2,768 Dividend Yield’19E* 5.1%

Reported FCF’18A 1,023 *Based on Amber Capital estimates

DPS’18A 0.65

SUEZ: COMPANY OVERVIEW

4

Suez is one of the world’s leading companies in the water and waste markets. The group operates on all five

continents through four divisions.

45% 41%

27% 25%

31% 29%

1%9%

(5%) (4%)

2,578m EUR2,768m EUR

32.06%

5.97%

3.73%

3.49%0.57%

54.17%

Engie

Criteria Caixa

Employee shareholding

Caltagirone

Treasury shares

Free float

Source: Suez 2018 Reference Document

BACKGROUND (M EUR)

EBITDA CONTRIBUTION BY DIVISION

SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE

Sources: Suez, Bloomberg, Amber Capital

Water Technologies

& Solutions (WTS)

International

Recycling &

Recovery Europe

Water Europe

International

− Water and waste sectors in more than 15 countries

Source: Suez

Water Technologies & Solutions (WTS)

− Industrial water division (includes GE Water and Industrial Water

Technologies)

Recycling & Recovery Europe

− Collection, pretreatment, sorting and recycling of waste, management of

industrial sites, etc.

− Both public and private customers through service or management contracts,

operational and maintenance contracts etc.

Water Europe (including Chile through controlling stake in Aguas Andinas)

− Collection and treatment of municipal and industrial wastewater, treatment

and distribution of drinking water

− Public service contracts, O&M contracts, engineering and various other type

of contracts20182017

Page 6: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

Reference Event Issuance Price Date Price ChangeAnnualized

TSR

IPO €14.00 22/07/2008 -9.4% +4.1%

Agbar Capital Increase ~€14.49* 17/09/2014 -12.4% +1.9%

GE Water Capital Increase €15.80 24/05/2017 -19.7% -5.2%

POOR ABSOLUTE STOCK PERFORMANCE

5

A

B

C

Suez has been a poor performer in absolute terms: Nearly 11 years later, Suez’s

share price still trades below its

IPO level.

~-20% share price

reduction since the

GE Water Capital

Increase.

Source: Bloomberg. Historical Share Price

Source: Bloomberg

*Calculated on the basis of Suez reported figures

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18

AB

C

Share Price

(28.06.2019)

€12.69

Page 7: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

WEAK RELATIVE STOCK PERFORMANCE

6

Suez has widely underperformed its main comparable indices and peers:

Source: Bloomberg

Page 8: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

A DECADE OF EMPIRE BUILDING

7

Over the past decade, Suez has been too centered on a capital intensive top-line growth strategy in our view,

mainly through internationalization while not focusing enough on value creation.

Evolution of the key performance indicators of Suez since IPO (2008-2018):

+84%

Growth in

Capital Employed

+40%

Growth in

Revenues

+26%

Growth in

EBIT

-0.2%

-57%

Growth in

EBIT/Share

Growth in

EPS

NO PER SHARE GROWTH OVER 10 YEARS

A bigger Suez does not

mean a more valuable

Suez.

Source: Suez

Page 9: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

What has been

happening at

Suez since IPO?

Page 10: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

SUEZ’S VICIOUS CYCLE

9

Suez’s value destruction cycle has in our view been driven by the recurring application of the “Suez Vicious

Cycle” that has been at the core of the questionable strategy of the company:

HIGH CAPITAL

INTENSITY

SHARE COUNT

INCREASE

LIMITED EARNINGS GROWTH

DECREASING ROCE

INCREASING FINANCIAL LEVERAGE

SUEZ’S

VICIOUSCYCLE

Source: Bloomberg

Page 11: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

HIGH CAPITAL INTENSITY

10

Since IPO, Suez has embarked on a highly capital intensive strategy…

Evolution of Suez’s capital employed:

20082018

€10.1bn

International€6.0bn

Water€5.5bn

Waste€4.1bn

+84%

Growth

€18.6bn

Suez’s Acquisitions since IPO

Source: Suez, Reported End of Period Capital Employed

Source: Suez

Page 12: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

SHARE COUNT INCREASE

11

… that has resulted in a material increase in the company’s number of issued shares…

480.0

500.0

520.0

540.0

560.0

580.0

600.0

620.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Suez's Year End Shares Outstanding (M)

+5.9%

+4.0%

+10.4%

A

B

C

Reference Share Issuance Main Contributor Comments

+30.0M Agbar Acquisition Acquisition of Criteria’s 24.14% interest in Agbar

+21.8M Acea Stake Acquisition Acquisition of Caltagirone’s 10.85% stake in Acea

+59.0M GE Water Acquisition Acquisition of GE Water

A

B

C

489.7M 621.4M+27% increase

Source: Suez

Page 13: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

NO EARNINGS GROWTH

12

… and virtually no earnings growth!

Key Financials (EUR) 2008 2018 Delta CAGR 08-18

Capital Employed (EoP)/Share 20.69 30.17 +45.8% +3.8%

Revenues/Share 25.26 28.04 +11.0% +1.0%

EBITDA/Share 4.30 4.48 +4.3% +0.4%

EBIT/Share 2.16 2.16 -0.2% 0.0%

Earnings/Share 1.09 0.47 -56.9% -8.1%

Dividend/Share 0.65 0.65 0% 0%

Evolution of KPIs per share since IPO:

Economic reality:

A decade after the IPO,

Suez has not achieved

any growth in

EBIT/Share, EPS and

DPS.

Key Financials (bn EUR) 2008 2018 Delta CAGR 08-18

Capital Employed (EoP) 10.1 18.6 +84.1% +6.3%

Revenues 12.4 17.3 +40.2% +3.4%

EBITDA 2.1 2.8 +31.7% +2.8%

EBIT 1.1 1.3 +26.1% +2.3%

Adjusted Net Income (M) 533 290 -45.6% -5.9%

Evolution of KPIs in absolute terms since IPO:

Perception of growth:

Top-line culture at Suez

led to the illusion of a

growth cycle over the

years in our view.

Transition from “Growth

Perception” to “Economic

Reality” for shareholders

Source: Suez

Source: Suez

Page 14: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

a decade later (2008-2018)

No growth in EBIT/Share

No growth in EPS

No growth in DPS

Suez should urgently transition from a top-line to a bottom-line

culture to get back on a path of value creation for shareholders

in our view.

Why has Suez’s

underperformance

deepened over the recent

years?10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

Page 15: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

POOR CAPITAL ALLOCATION

14

Over the recent years (2013-2018), Suez has invested €13bn for virtually no earnings accretion:

Invested Capital

€13bn

Incremental EBIT Incremental FCF

€0.1bn€0

Suez has been a poor

capital allocator.

Source: Suez Reporting

Invested Capital = Sum (over 2013-2018) of Concession Renewals + Maintenance CAPEX + Development Investments + Financial Investments

Incremental EBIT = Reported EBIT 2018 – Reported EBIT 2013

Incremental FCF = Reported FCF 2018- Reported FCF 2013

Page 16: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

DECREASING ROCE

15

As a consequence, the company’s Return on Capital Employed ratio has been in free fall:

7.8% 7.9%

7.0%

6.8%

6.2%

2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Group ROCE Evolution

ROCE (Post-Tax) WACC

160 BPS OF

VALUE

DESTRUCTION

Source: Suez

Suez share price

performance

Source: Bloomberg

10

12

14

16

18

20

Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Apr-19

Page 17: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

INCREASING LEVERAGE

16

Suez had to tap into its balance sheet capacity to continue investing with no earnings expansion:

2.7x

2.9x

3.0x

3.2x 3.2x

3.1x

3.3x

3.4x

3.8x 3.8x

2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Group Financial Leverage Evolution

Reported Net Debt to EBITDA Total Net Debt to EBITDA (incl. hybrids)

Source: Suez

Page 18: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

A STRATEGY RESET IS NOW CRITICAL

Value

Creation

Potential

Restructuring

Opportunity

OPPORTUNITY OF NEW CEO

BERTRAND CAMUS

ROCE MATTERS FOR THE SHARE PRICE

New management should reconsider the capital allocation strategy of the group.

Sources: Suez, Amber Capital Estimate, Bloomberg

Page 19: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

What can Suez

do now?

Page 20: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

SUEZ’S VIRTUOUS CYCLE

19

The appointment of Bertrand Camus as new CEO of Suez marks the beginning of a new chapter for the

company. The new management team has a unique opportunity to reposition Suez as asset lighter, faster growing

and more profitable:

PORTFOLIO REVIEW

SELL RESTRUCTURE REPOSITION

STRENGTHEN BALANCE

SHEET

UNLOCK GROWTH

POTENTIAL

IMPROVE ROCE

SUEZ’S

VIRTUOUSCYCLE

A STRATEGIC RESET IS KEY TO REPOSITION SUEZ

New CEO,

New Chapter,

New Suez

It is time to break

with the past.

Page 21: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

A NEW PARADIGM FOR UTILITIES AS FOOTPRINT FOR SUEZ

20

The utilities sector has reinvented itself over the past few years by embarking on a large asset rotation cycle to

optimize its ROCE and accelerate its growth profile. We look at a few examples over the period 2015-2018:

Asset Rotation

ROCE Increase

DPS Growth

Cost cutting

Board Size

Enel

9 members

Naturgy

12 members

Veolia

13 members

Engie

14 members

Utilities / infrastructure

Industry

Sizable asset rotation to optimize portfolios

Material improvements

Double-digit growth

Digitalization drove large

savings

Reduction of board sizes

Current Suez

Very limited capital rotation

Decreasing ROCE

No growth

Limited net savings

Large board

19 members

Source: Company reporting, Amber Capital estimate, Bloomberg

Page 22: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

ENGIE CASE STUDY: A SUCCESSFUL ASSET LIGHT STRATEGY

21

Engie has embarked on an asset light growth path allowing it to constantly recycle capital, reduce risk and

unlock value while accelerating growth through the DBpSO strategy. Suez can learn from its shareholders.

DevelopmentD BuildB PartialP SellS OperateO

Increase Engie IRR Share risk

Accelerate capital

rotation to

increase growth

Keep the industrial

side of the assets

PRE-DBPSO

2016-2018

Win more projects

Development & construction risk Keep a stake & monetize NPV O&M, Energy management & asset

optimization

Source: Engie CMD 2019

CAPEX

MW ADDED

€3.7bn

2.8 GW

€1.7bn

8.0 GW

-54%

+2.9x

POST-DBPSO

2019-2021

✓IRR DBpSO = IRR Buy & Hold + 400 bps

BENEFITS OF DBPSO ASSET LIGHT STRATEGY

Source: Engie CMD 2019

WIND AND

SOLAR

CAPACITY

Page 23: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

Strategy reset

through large

asset rotation

Page 24: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

SUEZ NEEDS A DEEP PORTFOLIO REVIEW

23

Suez has a compelling opportunity to review its portfolio ahead of its capital markets day following a decade

of limited portfolio management:

What are the underperforming assets of the group?

Which assets could be monetized?

How can Suez redeploy proceeds?

What is the most value enhancing portfolio management strategy?

1.6%3.3%

4.5%

1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.8%0.8% 3.1%

2.0% 1.3%

2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A

Disposals as % of Capital Employed

Average of 2.1% per

annum only.

Source: Suez

Page 25: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

STEP 1: PORTFOLIO REVIEW

24

Suez should engage in a large portfolio review by assessing the Growth, ROCE and FCF generation levels of its

assets. The underperforming assets should fall into the scope of review.

Agbar

SpainOther Waste Europe

United

Water

Sita France

Decision criteria Scope of review

Allocation in

Step 2

Look at the contribution of each asset to Suez’s capital employed

Categorize assets based on criteria: ROCE and Growth

Underperforming assets are placed in the scope of review

The greater the capital employed contribution the more urgent the situationSource: Amber Capital

Acea

Source: Amber CapitalSource: Amber Capital

Gro

wth

RO

CE

Page 26: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

STEP 2: ASSET REVIEW

25

Conduct a precise analysis on the

possibility of implementing a cost-

cutting plan in order to increase ROCE

Try to optimize the structure to boost

returns

1. Restructure

Asset A

Agbar

Spain

Asset B

Asset C

2. Asset light

model3. Sell

If Suez is not the natural owner of the

asset but is best to operate it, follow a

“DBpSO-type” model: sell a stake and

keep the operation

Asset light model for value and growth

If the previous options are not

achievable, Suez should sell the greater

stake possible in the asset

This option is even more attractive when

there is appetite for the asset

Use of proceeds

in Step 3

Source: Amber Capital

Agbar

SpainOther Waste Europe

United

Water

Sita France

Acea

Page 27: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

STEP 3: USE OF PROCEEDS

26

Asset divesture mechanically leads to an earnings reduction

Part of the proceeds can be used to buy back shares in order to limit /

eliminate the earnings dilution effect

Additionally, Suez can opportunistically capitalize on the

undervaluation of its shares, based on the company’s assessment, by

acquiring them

Proceeds

from

Step 2

Share buy

back

Suez management has been communicating on its ability to find

investment opportunities at rate of returns of WACC+400bps

Thanks to the proceeds and the healthier capital employment, Suez will

be able to exploit these opportunities and invest in more performing

assets

Reinvest

In addition to the incremental investment capacity, the asset rotation

proceeds could allow Suez to delever in order to strengthen the balance

sheet

The asset-lighter new strategy would require lower levels of financial

leverage, which is addressed at this step

Deleverage

Key to

value

creation

Page 28: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

7.5x 7.5x

12.0x

Suez TradingMultiple

Consensusvaluation

Expectedmultiple

CASE STUDY: SALE OF AGBAR SPAIN1

27

Agbar is an ideal candidate to initiate an asset rotation cycle. The asset is now mature and has lower returns

than the group’s cost of capital. We believe it should now be owned by financial investors.

Mature

AssetROCEAGBAR < WACCSUEZ

Infrastructure,

Pension, PE

Funds

Ass

et a

lloca

tion

Use

of

pro

ceed

s

Disposal of Agbar Spain would unlock value and reposition Suez

Estimated transactional multiple of 12.0x EV/EBITDA3

High appetite for infrastructure assets as well as Iberia

Assuming an 19E EBITDA of €250M5, the unlocked value would be

(12.0-7.5)*250 = c. €1.1bn ie ~ € 1.8/Share

Gross proceeds4:

+ €3,000M

Share buy back

€1,000m

Growth capex

€1,000m

Deleveraging

€1,000m

Growth Profile ROCE Profile Potential buyers

SUEZ

VIRTUOUS CYCLE APPLICATIONA

sset re

view

✓ Crystallize

significant value

✓Allow firepower

to invest further

✓Delever

✓ Buyback shares

+4.5x

3

2: Average multiple of Exane BNPP, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Barclays 3: Amber Capital Estimate based on comparable transactions

4: Pre-minorities, capital gain tax and other adjustments

2

1: Full perimeter of Spain considered for illustrative purposes. A revised perimeter of the asset could be considered by the management should it be value enhancing.

5: Amber Capital Estimate

Page 29: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

VALUE CREATION CYCLE

28

Suez has a considerable industrial opportunity ahead to grow faster. Through the application of the “virtuous

cycle”, we believe the company could unlock this potential and reposition itself structurally as we detail below

throughout the Agbar example:

Disposal of

Agbar at

12.0x

EV/EBITDAReinvest in Growth WACC + 400bps

Delever

Share Buybacks

Unlock

Value

€1.0bn

APPLICATION OF “SUEZ VIRTUOUS CYCLE” – AGBAR ASSET ROTATION EXAMPLE

KPI Pre-Asset Rotation Post-Asset Rotation “New Suez”

Group EBITDA CAGR 18-21 +3.5% +6.5% ✓ Higher growth

Net Debt/EBITDA 3.25x 2.66x ✓ Lower leverage

Share count (M) 621.4 550, -10% ✓ Share count reduction

Group EBITDA/Share CAGR 18-21 +3.5% +10.0% ✓ Per share upside

Group ROCE 6.2% 6.7% Year 1 / 8.3% Year 3 ✓ Value creation

€1.0bn

€1.0bn

Source: Amber Capital

Page 30: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

Improve

corporate

governance

and alignment

Page 31: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

19 19

14.0 14.213.7 13.6

12.5

11

13

15

17

19

Suez Engie (Pre-AGM 2019)

Engie (Post-AGM 2019)

SX5E(Average)

SX6E(Average)

CAC 40(Average)

SBF 120(Average)

Num

ber

of

Dir

ect

ors

Size of Board of Directors

Source: Bloomberg, Company reporting

Average 13.6

REDUCE THE SIZE OF THE BOARD

30

Suez should reduce the size of its board to allow for a more agile corporate governance structure and a more

efficient decision making process:

Suez should follow in the footsteps of its main shareholder, Engie, and

also reduce the Size of its Board to achieve a leaner structure.

SX5E – Euro Stoxx 50, SX6E – European Utilities Index, SBF120 – Société des Bourses Françaises 120

Page 32: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

IMPROVE MANAGEMENT’S ALIGNMENT

31

The alignment of the management with shareholders has to be materially improved:

CompanyEBITDA/EBIT/

PBT

FCF/

DebtIndividual

Net Profit/

EPS

ROE/

ROCERevenues CAPEX

TSR/

Dividends

Qualitative

SafetyTotal

Utilities

Average25% 14% 12% 12% 5% 0% 4% 3% 24% 100%

Suez Pre-AGM 2019

20% 20% 0% 0% 10% 0% 0% 25% 25% 100%

Suez Current 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% 10% 0% 15% 35% 100%

CEO Annual Variable Compensation Criterias (Short-Term):

FREE CASH FLOW MISMATCH

Company uses FCF before Growth

CAPEX, Dividends to Minorities,

Hybrids Coupon as remuneration

criteria.PR

OBLE

MS

SO

LUTIO

NS

REVIEW FCF DEFINITION

Management should be remunerated

on Equity Free Cash Flow generation

after Growth CAPEX to increase

alignment with shareholders. Capital

intensity matters.

ABSENCE OF NET PROFIT

Management is not remunerated on

bottom line metrics. This provides

more incentives for empire building.

INTRODUCE EPS

Earnings Per Share and per share

financial metrics should be

introduced to emphasize value

creation over empire building.

REPLACED ROCE WITH REVENUES

Remuneration committee has

removed the ROCE as a

remuneration criteria to replace it

with Revenues – a clear

misalignment with shareholders.

EMPHASIZE ROCE

Management should be remunerated

on value creation rather than topline

expansion. ROCE should be core in

the annual variable compensation.

Practices from the past should be abandoned – Ordinary tasks should not be subject to Exceptional Remunerations:

Exceptional bonus to be granted to Mr Chaussadefor the acquisition of GE Water

€1.0M

Share price evolution since the acquisition of GE Water

-20%Why?

Management should

be remunerated

based on value

creation rather than

empire building.

A leaner Suez can be

a more valuable Suez.

Source: Suez, RBC

Source: BloombergSource: Suez

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Increase

medium-term

visibility

Page 34: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

INCREASE MEDIUM-TERM VISIBILITY

33

Suez needs to improve the visibility of the business. The group should present a multi-year guidance at the CMD

with clear objectives on: Growth, ROCE, Equity FCF And Leverage.

CompanyMulti-Year

Guidance

RERATING

SIMPLIFICATION

VISIBILITY

EXECUTION

DRIVERS FOR THE RERATING OF SUEZ

Source: Company’s Reporting

Page 35: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

New Suez:

higher growth,

asset lighter,

lower leverage

Page 36: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

“NEW SUEZ”: VALUE CREATION POTENTIAL

35

Through a proper strategic review including ambitious asset rotation and an asset lighter model to drive growth,

we believe Suez could achieve significant valuation creation by expanding its ROCE by +150 bps to +300 bps.

We highlight below a key correlation between ROCE and Enterprise Value/Capital Employed across the utilities

sector in Europe:

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

1.70

1.80

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%

ROCE (Post-Tax)

ROCE (Post-Tax) FY19e (x) vs EV/CE (y)

Current Suez

New Suez

Source: Company reporting, Amber Capital estimate

European utility companies+150bps +300bps

+0.6x

+0.3x

Virtuous Cycle

Opportunity

Rerating

Opportunity

EV/CE

6.2%

1.05x

Current Veolia

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION

36

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

This document has been provided for information purposes only and may not under any circumstances be relied upon by any person in evaluating the merits of investing or disinvesting Suez securities. This document

presents Amber Capital’s analysis of Suez current financial situation and of the possible actions that the management of the company could implement to unlock value.

This document does not recommend or suggest any investment strategy and does not express any investment recommendation or any opinion as to the current or future price of any investment and must not be

treated as doing so by any person.

Any forward-looking statements in this document are based on assumptions which may not prove accurate and hypothetical scenarios which may not occur. This document is not a solicitation with respect to the

purchase or sale of any security or any Amber Fund.

The information and this document are not intended to be used to and do not themselves solicit proxies to vote in any Suez shareholders’ meeting, nor will Amber Capital or its Funds accept proxies from any Suez

shareholder to attend and vote in any Suez shareholders’ meeting.

This document. the information and analyses contained herein are not intended as tax, legal or investment advice. you should not rely on the information contained herein in connection with any investment decision.

The distribution of this document may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. Persons into whose possession this document comes are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions.

In the United Kingdom, this document is being distributed to, and is directed at (i) persons in the United Kingdom who fall within the definition of “investment professionals” in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and

Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “FPO”) or (b) high net worth entities falling within Article 49 of the FPO (such persons in (i) or (ii) being “relevant persons”). Persons who are not relevant

persons must not rely on or act upon this document.

This document is directed only at persons who are “professional clients” or “eligible counterparties” (as defined in the rules of the UK Financial Conduct Authority). Other persons must not rely on or act on this

document in any way and the services of Amber Capital will not be available to such other persons.

Any investor who subscribes, or proposes to subscribe, for an investment in any Amber Fund must be able to bear the risks involved and must meet the Fund’s suitability requirements. Some or all alternative

investment programs may not be suitable for certain investors. No assurance can be given that the Fund’s investment objectives will be achieved. Private funds are typically speculative and involve a substantial

degree of risk. The Fund may be leveraged and engage in other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance and

performance may be volatile. An investor must realize that he or she could lose all or a substantial amount of his or her investment.

The information contained in this presentation is based upon proprietary research and analysis of public information conducted by Amber Capital and its affiliates, the reasonableness of which must be evaluated by

investors and prospective investors. Forward-looking information contained in this document, including all statements of opinion and/or belief, are based on a variety of estimates, assumptions, projections and

predictions by Amber Capital. These estimates and assumptions are inherently uncertain and are subject to numerous business, industry, market, regulatory, competitive, and financial risks that are outside of Amber

Capital’s control. There can be no assurance that the assumptions will prove accurate.

One or more Amber Funds may have a position in the securities of any company mentioned in this document.

Amber Capital has total investment discretion over its Funds which are dependent upon the services of Amber Capital. The use of a single group of advisors could mean lack of diversification and, consequently,

higher risk. Private funds are generally highly illiquid. There is generally no secondary market for an investor’s interest in a private fund, and none should be expected to develop. There will be restrictions on

transferring interests in the Fund. The fees and expenses that may be earned by Amber Capital and its affiliates may offset the Fund’s trading profits. The instruments in which the Fund will invest may involve

complex tax structures, and there may be delays in distributing important tax information. The Fund will not be subject to the same regulatory requirements as a mutual fund, including the SEC’s registration and

disclosure requirements. Certain of the trades executed may take place on foreign markets, which inherently involves a greater degree of risk. Funds are subject to various other risk factors and conflicts of interest.

For further information regarding risk factors and conflicts of interest with respect to a Fund, please refer to its confidential prospectus, supplement and application form.

Amber Capital UK LLP is authorized and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority, Amber Capital LP is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Amber

Capital Italia SGR SpA is regulated by the Bank of Italy. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information in this document has not been approved or verified by any regulatory

authority, and no regulatory authority has endorsed these materials or passed upon the merits of an investment.

Page 38: Unlocking the value creation potential of the “New Suez” · 2019-07-18 · AMBER CAPITAL: ABOUT US 1 Amber Capital currently holds a 1.9% stake in Suez SA (“Suez”or the “Company”)

CONTACT INFORMATION

37

PARIS

Footprint Consultants

Alexis de Maigret

E: [email protected]

Phone: +33 6 13 62 38 23

Philippe Manière

E: [email protected]

LONDON

Maitland/AMO

Jais Mehaji

E: [email protected]

Phone: +44 207 379 5151

James Isola

E: [email protected]

MEDIA

NEW YORK

900 Third Avenue

New York, NY 10022

USA

LONDON

14-17 Market Place

Kent House

London W1W 8AJ

United Kingdom

E: [email protected]

MILAN

Piazza del Carmine 4

20121 Milan

Italy

AMBER CAPITAL