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Unlocking alternative investment opportunities in the Chinese Dream Exploring the Pilbara Iron Ore Region in Western Australia June 2014

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For more information: [email protected] MACRO Realty Developments was a speaker at the marcus evans Elite Summit, they delivered their presentation entitled "Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream" Join the 2015 Elite Summit along with leading regional investors in an intimate environment for a highly focused discussion on the latest investment strategies in the market. For more information: [email protected]

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Page 1: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Unlocking alternative investment opportunities

in the Chinese Dream

Exploring the Pilbara Iron Ore Region in Western Australia

June 2014

Page 2: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE CHINESE DREAM

2

2013 global demand

2020 global demand

“The Chinese Dream fundamentally is the dream

of the Chinese people… to build a moderately

prosperous society…”

Xi Jinping, President of China (Mar-13)

Page 3: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

The realisation of ‘The Chinese Dream’

• 20m Chinese annually moving to urban regions

• Urbanisation directly correlated to per capital steel consumption (and consequential iron ore demand)

• 40% forecast increase in Chinese steel production (2015-2025)

• US$6.8 trillion ‘National New-Type Urbanisation Plan’ (Mar-14)

• 100 million Chinese to be integrated into urban regions by 2020

CHINA URBANISATION

Intrinsic link to iron ore demand

3

Chinese Household – Steel Intensity

Chinese Population – Rural vs Urban

Page 4: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Iron ore – a commodity with decades of demand

• China responsible for circa 50% of worldwide demand

RISING IRON ORE DEMAND

China leading demand

4

Global Crude Steel Production, Mt

Global Demand – Iron Ore Imports

Page 5: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Tomorrow’s best positioned miners

• Lowest cost position Rio = US$40/tonne BHPB = US$44/tonne FMG = US$50/tonne

• Eternal producers 2013 demand = 1,260Mt 2016 demand = 1,500Mt Global demand needs to halve before miners reduce export volumes

• Highest Fe content globally

THE PILBARA – GLOBALLY COMPETITIVE POSITION

The world’s lowest production costs

5

US$ cost to produce per tonne

Page 6: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE CHINESE DREAM – GROWTH = POLLUTION

Chinese government declaring war

6

• Beijing second most polluted city globally City second most worse living environment in the world (Shanghai Academy of Science, Feb-14)

Page 7: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE CHINESE DREAM – DOMESTIC IRON ORE KEY POLLUTION CONTRIBUTOR

Dirty smelters with domestic low grade ore targeted

7

2013 global demand

• US$1.6bn fund to control air pollution (Feb-14) Established by Chinese government “consumption of coal” to be controlled – iron ore smelters key consumer of coal

• “We will resolutely declare war against pollution as we declared war against poverty” (Mr Li, Premier of China)

Page 8: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE PILBARA – AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE PRODUCERS

Iron ores are differentiated by quality and cost to customer (Rio Tinto commentary)

8

2013 global demand

2020 global demand

Page 9: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

INVESTMENT OPTIONS IN THE PILBARA

9

2013 global demand

2020 global demand

Direct share purchase in miners

Corporate bonds in miners

Purchase of mining related businesses

Investment in Pilbara real estate - debt or equity

(debt being the most tax efficient)

Investment in Pilbara real estate developments (debt or equity)

Page 10: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

INVESTMENT OPTIONS IN THE PILBARA – DIRECT SHARES

Western Australian resource companies – outperformance since 2008

10

2020 global demand

Share Market Indices, 2000 = 100

Page 11: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Complete service provider for investors seeking a high return

• Perth based; the largest private property developers in the Pilbara

• Have a build and retain model as rental yields are 8-12% unlevered

• Offer direct and indirect investment with debt or equity instruments, providing fixed returns of 8-20% IRR

• Fully licensed and heavily regulated in Australia, will be listed on the Australian National Stock Exchange providing a fixed 8-12% IRR by year end 2014

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENTS

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED

11

MACRO developments

and migration visas

Page 12: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

WESTERN AUSTRALIA’S PILBARA REGION

MINERAL AND RESOURCE RICH - LARGEST PROJECTS STILL TO COME

12

Page 13: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

THREE PILBARA CITIES

13

Three Pilbara Cities offer secure investment

• They support many mines and lucrative resource projects in between

• Are experiencing strong population growth

• Have limited land supply

• Are currently underdeveloped

• Are enjoying significant government investment through a program called ‘Royalties for Regions’

• MACRO is developing real estate in Port Hedland and Newman where the returns have been the highest in Australia (as a

10 year average)

Page 14: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

FOCUSSING ON THE PILBARA AT THE MOMENT AS IT IS THE HIGHEST

YIELDING AND GROWTH MARKET IN AUSTRALIA

14

Page 15: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS NOW IN THE PHASE OF

A ‘PRODUCTION BOOM’ WITH A STRONG NEED FOR MORE ACCOMODATION

15

Page 16: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE MOST RECENT COMMSEC REPORT SHOWS

WESTERN AUSTRALIA HAS THE HIGHEST RATE OF POPULATION GROWTH

16

Page 17: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

PORT HEDLAND - LARGEST PORT

IN THE WORLD BY BULK EXPORT

Large demand/supply mismatch

• 2013 undersupply of over 1571 dwellings

• Only 611 dwellings are expected by the State Government to

be built over the next 12 months

17

Largest bulk commodities export port

• Exporting iron ore from twelve mines owned by miners such as BHP, Fortescue Metals Group and Atlas Iron

• Seven other operating/committed mining projects located within 50km radius

Strong population growth

• Home to 21,000 residents, Port Hedland is forecast by economist AEC group to reach a population of 35,000 people by 2025.

• Population growth is being driven by

(1) committed new projects,

• (2) significant government investment and

• (3) a trend away from fixed mining camps to residential housing

Page 18: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

NEWMAN - LARGEST OPEN CUT

IRON ORE MINE IN THE WORLD

Large demand/supply mismatch

• 2012 undersupply of over 360 dwellings

• 817 new dwellings required by 2015

18

Largest Inland Pilbara town

• Newman is located 6km from Mt Whaleback, the largest open cut iron ore mine in the world

• Mt Whaleback is BHP Billiton’s single, largest project

• Ten other operating/committed mining projects are located within 50km radius (1)

• 1200 kilometres from Perth and 455 kilometres from the nearest city; a key service centre and processing hub

Affluent town of 6,000 residents planned to reach 15,000

• Very high proportion of workforce employed in mining

with an average income of $160,000 per annum

• Median weekly income 2.3x higher than national average (2)

Notes 1. BHP Billiton: Jimblebar, Wheelarra, Ore Bodies 18, 23, 24, 25 Rio Tinto: Hope Downs 4 2. ABS (2011 Census Data)

Page 19: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE PILBARA – DECADES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

BHP Billiton’s 100-years of resources

19

2013 global demand

2020 global demand

Page 20: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE PILBARA – DECADES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

Rio Tinto iron ore operations

20

2013 global demand

2020 global demand

Page 21: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

NEW MINES AND PROJECTS ARE STARTING EVERY MONTH TO CAPITALISE

ON THE LOW COST OF PRODUCTION AND EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE

21

Page 22: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE PILBARA PAYS THE HIGHEST

WAGES – CORPORATE TENANTS

22

• There is a large migration to the Pilbara for higher paying jobs (average wage

$160,000 per annum)

• The mining companies and service related companies are the tenants, not the individual employees

(the workers have their accommodation

paid for as part of their salary package)

• Better accommodation, attracts better employees and promotes staff retention

• The companies have a preference for new accommodation

Page 23: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

BOTH THE 10 YEAR AVERAGE AUSTRALIAN RENTAL YIELDS AND

CAPITAL GROWTH RATES ARE THE HIGHEST IN THE PILBARA

23

Units % Houses % Avg. 10 year capital growth rate

$460 5.6% $550 4.1% 4.3%

$350 4.1% $360 3.2% 7.1%

$365 5.7% $380 4.4% 8.1%

$350 4.1% $400 3.2% 10.1%

$1,200 10.05% $2,500 14% 27.1%

Sydney

Victoria

Brisbane

Perth

Pilbara

Source: RP Data, Super Ratings, Australian Property Monitors June 2013

Page 24: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

PILBARA DEMAND

FOR RENTAL PROPERTIES – MAKING NEWS

24

Page 25: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Examples of current properties available for sale and lease

TYPICAL ACCOMODATION

IN PORT HEDLAND

25

• 90% of accommodation is substandard;

dilapidated – even shipping containers

are being used

• Median prices above $1,000,000 (AUD)

• New properties achieve more than 13%

rental yield, unlevered as there is not

enough supply yet huge demand

• Supply of land in Port Hedland and

Newman, is very restricted

Page 26: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE PLANE TRIP FROM PERTH TO THE PILBARA FOR

A REGIMENTED FIFO WORKFORCE

26

Page 27: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

EXAMPLES OF ‘MAKE – DO’

ACCOMODATION IN THE PILBARA

27

Page 28: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES ON THE GROWING WORK FORCE

AND POPULATION IN THE PILBARA

Page 29: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES

FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT

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Page 30: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES

FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT

Page 31: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES

FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT

Page 32: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

SUPPORT GROUPS FOR THE PARTNERS AND FAMILIES

OF FIFO WORKDERS WHO ARE CURRENTLY LEFT BEHIND

32

Page 33: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES

FINDINGS OF A GOVERNMENT REPORT

Page 34: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES – THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE

25% OF ROYALTIES TO BE REINVESTED INTO CREATING ‘PILBARA CITIES’

Page 35: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT IN THE PILBARA - $1.2 billion COMMITTED

TO REVITALISING PORT HEDLAND AND NEWMAN

35

The government’s vision:

• “to build vibrant cities that offer economic sustainability from one generation to the next”

• “a radical shift in the way we think of the Pilbara – not as a place of transience, but of permanent, thriving communities

Page 36: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

EXAMPLE OF WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS PLANNING FOR NEWMAN

HIGH DENSITY AS THERE IS LIMITED LAND SUPPLY

36

Page 37: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Dominant iron ore producing region globally

Committed expansion plans in Pilbara region

Strong population growth forecast (2010-2015)

Notes 4. Pilbara Planning & Infrastructure Framework 2012, WA Gov. (Jan-12) 5. Population Projections Australia 2006 to 2101, Australian Bureau of Statistics 6. Pilbara Population & Employment Study, PwC (Nov-12) 7. Metalytics (2012) 8. Australia’s Iron Ore Production Quality, Geoscience Australia (2009) 9. Federal Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics (Apr-13)

PILBARA REAL ESTATE -

STRONG FUNDAMENTALS • 2.8% pa increase Pilbara wide (4)

• 2.0x the national average (1.4% pa) (5)

• Lowest cost producers (break-even at $40-50/tonne) (7)

• Highest quality of iron ore deposits@ Fe 62-65% (8)

• $91bn in mining projects planned or committed (9)

Pilbara Population

Pilbara Operational Workforce, (‘000)

Workforce growing a 1.5-1.6x rate of general population (2010-2015)

• 4.4% pa increase in fly-in/fly-out (FIFO) workers (6)

• 4.7% pa increase in residential workers (6)

37

Page 38: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THERE IS NO ‘BOOM / BUST’ WITH THE PILBARA’S IRON ORE PRODUCTION

AS THE LOWEST COST PRODUCERS

38

Page 39: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

PORT HEDLAND

SHORTFALL OF ACCOMODATION

39

Council Flood Map – Port Hedland

Required New Dwellings Built vs Forecast Shortfall

• 50% population growth in ten years 2013 population = 20,200 2003 population = 13,100

• Shortfall of 364 dwellings by 2015

• New supply severely constrained Extensive flood plain restrictions Extensive environmental restrictions

Page 40: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Forecast Supply of Land/Dwellings (27)

Notes 27. Property Supply Report, Halcyon Property (Aug-13) 28. Newman Housing Development Summary, Department of Regional Development & Land (Mar-13)

Forecast Short Fall in Dwellings(28)

NEWMAN – SHORTFALL OF ACCOMODATION

40

Page 41: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENTS - PART OF THE SOLUTION

FOR PROVIDING QUALITY ACCOMODATION IN THE ‘PILBARA CITIES’

41

A new town centre is planned

Providing a variety of shops, amenities,

facilities and accommodation

Concept plans for MACRO Realty Development’s town centre projects

Page 42: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

MACRO’S TOWN CENTRE AND RESIDENTIONAL SUBDIVISION PLANS

MOST LAND IN PORT HEDLAND IS FLOOD PRONE

42

Page 43: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014
Page 44: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

McGregory St is the only residential site immediately developable

PORT HEDLAND

MACRO’S NEXT PROJECT

44

McGregory St – Fully Approved, 91 Land Lot Subdivision (Mar-13)

Port Hedland – Flood Plain Constrained

• McGregor St (640 dwellings) Mar-13 planning approved for 248 Construction can commence immediately

• Spoilbank – proposed Rezoning years away Feb-14 WA Environmental Protection Authority rejected rezoning due to dust levels (from iron ore loading)

• Pretty Pool – proposed Rezoning process not yet underway Artificial lake/canals required to manage flooding

Site

Pretty Pool: Requires rezoning,

extensive dredging, land fill and

environmental hurdles

Spoilbank: Requires rezoning,

extensive land fill and storm surge

protection ; dust issues

Page 45: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

THE MAJORITY OF PILBARA LAND

CAN NOT BE DEVELOPED – Newman example

1.

2.

3.

45

Topography (hills and flood plains) (24)

Native title clearance

Services (power, water, wastewater)

Financing (major banks focusing on capital cities)

Notes 23. Building the Pilbara, Pilbara Development Commission (Jun-13) 24. Pilbara Vernacular Handbook, Western Australian Government (Nov-11)

For the following reasons, supply remains tight

Page 46: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

WITH THE LAND AND FURTHER INVESTMENT

WE CAN MAKE THE PILBARA CITIES LIVEABLE

46

Page 47: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

INVESTING IN OUR DEVELOPMENTS OR PORTFOLIOS

HELPS TRANSFORM THIS:

47

Page 48: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

IN TO THIS - LIVEABLE COMPLEXES AND CITIES WHERE WORKERS

CAN MAINTAIN RELATIONSHIPS AND HAVE A GOOD QUALITY OF LIFE

48

Page 49: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

PLACES WHERE WORKERS SUPPORTING THIS GLOBAL URBANISATION

CAN BE WITH THEIR PARTNERS AND FAMILIES AFTER WORK HOURS

49

Page 50: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR

Page 51: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR

Page 52: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR

Page 53: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR

Page 54: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR

Page 55: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

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ACTUAL PHOTOS OF PROPERTIES LEASED AT 8-12% OF PURCHASE PRICE

MACRO REALTY DEVELOPMENT’S BLENDED PORTFOLIOS RETURN 14% IRR

Page 56: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

DEVELOPMENT FUNDING OPPORTUNIITIES OF 16 TO 20% IRR ARE AVAILABLE

56

Page 57: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

PART PROCEEDS OF DEVELOPMENTS GO TO CHARITY

57

• Development proceeds (10%) this financial year go towards the Minderoo Foundation (Andrew Forrest’s charity)

Minderoo and Andrew Forrest

• Andrew Forrest (now a billionaire) founded Fortescue Metals Group in April 2003

• Andrew Forrest is the first Australian to have joined the Giving Pledge (along with

Richard Branson, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet); which donates the majority of their wealth to charity

• Since 2001 the Minderoo Foundation has donated $274,403,266 to charity

.

Page 58: Unlocking Alternative Investment Opportunities in the Chinese Dream: Macpherson & MACRO Realty Developments - Elite Summit 2014

Unlocking alternative investment opportunities

in the Chinese Dream

Exploring the Pilbara Iron Ore Region in Western Australia

June 2014