united states public debt

United States public debt 1

United States public debt

US debt from 1940 to 2010 Red lines indicate the Debt Held by the Public (netpublic debt) and black lines indicate the Total Public Debt Outstanding (grosspublic debt) the difference being that the gross debt includes funds held by the

government (eg the Social Security Trust Fund) The second panel shows the two debtfigures as a percentage of US GDP (dollar value of US economic production for thatyear) Data from the Presidents proposed budget (Historical Tables) and other tableslisted when you click on the figure The top panel is deflated so every year is in 2010

dollars

The United States public debt is afrequently reported measure of theobligations of the United States federalgovernment and is presented by theUnited States Treasury in twocomponents and one total

bull Debt Held by the Public representingall federal[1] securities held byinstitutions or individuals outside theUnited States Government

bull Intragovernmental Holdingsrepresenting US Treasury securitiesheld in accounts which areadministered by the United StatesGovernment such as the OASI Trustfund administered by the SocialSecurity Administration and

bull Total Public Debt Outstanding whichis the sum of the abovecomponents[2]

As of March 25 2011 the Total PublicDebt Outstanding of the United States ofAmerica was $1421 trillion and was970 of calendar year 2010s annualgross domestic product (GDP) of $1466trillion[2] [3] [4] Using 2010 figures thetotal debt (963 of GDP) ranked 12thhighest against other nations

The national debt should not be confusedwith the trade deficit which is the difference between net imports and net exports State and Local GovernmentSeries securities issued by state and local governments are not part of the United States government debt[5] Thedeficit is presented on a cash rather than an accruals basis although the accrual deficit provides more information onthe longer-term implications of the governments annual operations[6]

The annual government deficit or surplus refers to the cash difference between government receipts and spendingignoring intra-governmental transfers The gross public debt increases or decreases as a result of this unified budgetdeficit or surplus However there is certain spending (supplemental appropriations) that add to the gross debt but areexcluded from the deficit Gross debt has increased over $500 billion each year since fiscal year (FY) 2003 withincreases of $1 trillion in FY2008 $19 trillion in FY2009 and $17 trillion in FY2010[7]


History

The US Federal Debt from 1800 to 1999 (debt held by the public)

Graph of US gross public debt between 1940 and 2010 as a percentage of GDP brokendown by presidential terms Year numbers refer to end of the fiscal year (that is each year

tick points to October 1 [July 1 before 1977] rather than January 1 of its calendar year)with the rationale that the fiscal activities of the previous President and Congress impact

the economy for some period of time after the January inauguration of the subsequentoffice-holders

The United States has had public debtsince its inception Debts incurredduring the American RevolutionaryWar and under the Articles ofConfederation led to the first yearlyreported value of $7546347652 onJanuary 1 1791 From 1796 to 1811there were 14 surpluses and only 2deficits The first dramatic growthspurt of the debt occurred because ofthe War of 1812 In the first 20 yearsfollowing the War of 1812 18surpluses were experienced and the USpaid off 9997 of its debt

The second dramatic growth spurt ofthe debt occurred because of the CivilWar The debt was just $65 million in1860 but passed $1 billion in 1863 andhad reached $27 billion following thewar In the following 47 years Americareturned to the practice of runningsurpluses during times of peaceexperiencing 36 surpluses and only 11deficits During this period 55 of theUS national debt was paid off

The next period of major growth indebt came during WWI reaching $255billion at its conclusion It wasfollowed by 11 straight surpluses andsaw the debt reduced by 36 Thebuildup and involvement in World WarII plus social programs during the FDRoosevelt (because of the GreatDepression) and Truman presidencies in the 1930s and 40s caused a sixteenfold increase in the gross public debtfrom $16 billion in 1930 to $260 billion in 1950

After this period the growth of the gross public debt closely matched the rate of inflation where it tripled in sizefrom $260 billion in 1950 to around $909 billion in 1980 Gross debt in nominal dollars quadrupled during theReagan and Bush presidencies from 1980 to 1992 The net public debt quintupled in nominal terms

In nominal dollars the net public debt rose and then fell between 1992 and 2000 from $3T in 1992 to $34T in 2000During the administration of President George W Bush the gross public debt increased from $57 trillion inJanuary 2001 to $107 trillion by December 2008[3] Under President Barack Obama the debt increased from $107trillion to $142 trillion by February 2011[8]

Since the US economy has grown nearly every year since World War 2 the size of the national debt relative to the economy (ie as a percentage of gross domestic product or GDP) is another key measure Gross debt relative to


GDP rose to over 100 to pay for WW2 and then declined thereafter rising during the 1980s as part of the ColdWar and again due to recessions and policy decisions in the early 21st century During the 1970s debt held by thepublic declined from 28 GDP to 26 GDP During the 1980s it rose to 41 GDP During the 1990s it rose to50 and then was reduced to 39 by the end of the decade From 2000-2008 it rose from 35 to 40 and to 62by the end of fiscal year 2010[9]

Valuation and measurement

Public and government accounts

Detailed breakdown of government holders of treasury debt and debt instrumentsused of the public portion

The total or gross national debt is the sum ofthe debt held by the public andintragovernmental debt As of February2011 the debt held by the public was $96trillion and the intragovernmental debtwas $46 trillion for a total of $142trillion[10]

The national debt is also described in termsof marketable vs non-marketable securitiesAs of February 2011 total marketablesecurities were $90 trillion while thenon-marketable securities were $52 trillionMost of the marketable securities areTreasury notes bills and bonds held byinvestors and governments globally Thenon-marketable securities are mainly the government account series owed to certain government trust funds suchas the Social Security Trust Fund which represented $25 trillion dollars in 2010[10] [11] Other largeintragovernmental holders include the Federal Housing Administration the Federal Savings and Loan CorporationsResolution Fund and the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (Medicare)

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac obligations excludedAlthough not included in the debt figures reported by the government the US government has moved to moreexplicitly support the soundness of obligations of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae starting in July 2008 via theHousing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 and the September 7 2008 Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)conservatorship of both government sponsored enterprises (GSEs) The on- or off-balance sheet obligations of thosetwo independent GSEs was just over $5 trillion at the time the conservatorship was put in place comprised mainly ofmortgage payment guarantees[12] The extent to which the government will be required to pay these obligationsdepends on a variety of economic and housing market factors The federal government provided over $110 billion toFannie and Freddie by 2010[13]

Guaranteed obligations excludedStarting in late 2008 the US federal government is guaranteeing large amounts of obligations relating to mutualfunds banks and corporations under several new programs designed to deal with the problems initiated by theFinancial crisis of 2007ndash2010 Guarantees are off-balance sheet and therefore excluded in the calculation of federaldebt The funding of direct investments made in response to the crisis such as those made under the Troubled AssetsRelief Program are captured by the debt totals


Unfunded obligations excludedThe US government is committed under current law to mandatory payments for programs such as MedicareMedicaid and Social Security The GAO projects that payouts for these programs will significantly exceed taxrevenues over the next 75 years The Medicare Part A (hospital insurance) payouts already exceed program taxrevenues and Social Security payroll taxes fully cover payouts only until 2017 These deficits require funding fromother tax sources or borrowing[14]

The present value of these deficits or unfunded obligations is an estimated $458 trillion This is the amount thatwould have to be set aside during 2009 such that the principal and interest would pay for the unfunded commitmentsthrough 2084 Approximately $77 trillion relates to Social Security while $382 trillion relates to Medicare andMedicaid In other words health care programs are nearly five times as serious a funding challenge as SocialSecurity Adding this to the national debt and other federal commitments brings the total obligations to nearly $62trillion[15] However these amounts are excluded from the national debt computationThe Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has indicated that Future growth in spending per beneficiary for Medicareand Medicaidmdashthe federal governmentrsquos major health care programsmdashwill be the most important determinant oflong-term trends in federal spending Changing those programs in ways that reduce the growth of costsmdashwhich willbe difficult in part because of the complexity of health policy choicesmdashis ultimately the nationrsquos central long-termchallenge in setting federal fiscal policy[16]

Measuring debt relative to gross domestic product (GDP)

2010 Budget Total Debt $ and to GDP 2000-2010

GDP is a measure of the total size andoutput of the economy One measure of thedebt burden is its size relative to GDP Infiscal 2007 US public debt wasapproximately $5 trillion (368 percent ofGDP) and total debt was $9 trillion (655percent of GDP)[17] Public debt representsmoney owed to those holding governmentsecurities such as Treasury bills and bondsTotal debt includes intra-governmental debtwhich includes amounts owed to the SocialSecurity Trust Funds (about $22 trillion inFY 2007)[18] and Civil Service RetirementFunds By August 2008 the total debt was$96 trillion[19]

Based on the 2010 US budget totalnational debt will nearly double in dollar terms between 2008 and 2015 and will grow to nearly 100 of GDPversus a level of approximately 80 in early 2009[20] Multiple government sources including the current andprevious presidents the GAO Treasury Department and CBO have said the US is on an unsustainable fiscalpath[21] As the debt ratio increases the exchange value of the dollar may fall Paying back debt with cheapercurrency could cause investors (including other governments) to demand higher interest rates if they anticipatedfurther dollar depreciation Paying higher interest rates could slow domestic US growth

Higher debt increases interest payments on the debt which already exceed $430 billion annually as discussed belowor about 15 cents of every tax dollar for 2008[22] According to the CIA Factbook only six other countries have debtto GDP ratios over 100 for 2008 the largest of which is Japan at 170[23]


Further a high public debt to GDP ratio may also slow economic growth Economists Carmen Reinhart and KennethRogoff calculated that countries with public debt above 90 percent of GDP grow by an average of 13 percentagepoints per year slower than less debt-ridden countries The public debt-to-GDP ratio in March 2010 is about 60percent of GDP CBO projects it will reach 90 percent around 2020 under policies in place in 2010 If growth slowsall of the economic challenges the US faces will worsen[24]

Calculating the annual change in debt

Comparison of Deficits to Change in Debt 2008

The annual change in debt is not equal to thetotal deficit typically reported in themedia Social Security payroll taxes andbenefit payments along with the net balanceof the US Postal Service are consideredoff-budget while most other expenditureand receipt categories are consideredon-budget The total federal deficit is thesum of the on-budget deficit (or surplus) andthe off-budget deficit (or surplus) SinceFY1960 the federal government has runon-budget deficits except for FY1999 andFY2000 and total federal deficits except inFY1969 and FY1998-FY2001[25]

In large part because of Social Securitysurpluses the total deficit is smaller than theon-budget deficit The surplus of Social Security payroll taxes over benefit payments is spent by the government forother purposes However the government credits the Social Security Trust fund for the surplus amount adding to theintragovernmental debt The total federal debt is divided into intragovernmental debt and debt held by thepublic In other words spending the off budget Social Security surplus adds to the total national debt (byincreasing the intragovernmental debt) while the surplus reduces the total deficit reported in the mediaCertain spending called supplemental appropriations is outside the budget process entirely but adds to the nationaldebt Funding for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars was accounted for this way prior to the Obama administrationCertain stimulus measures and earmarks are also outside the budget processFor example in FY2008 an off-budget surplus of $183 billion reduced the on-budget deficit of $642 billionresulting in a total federal deficit of $459 billion Media often reported the latter figure The national debt increasedby $1017 billion between the end of FY2007 and the end of FY2008[26] The federal government publishes the totaldebt owed (public and intragovernmental holdings) at the end of each fiscal year [27] and since FY1957 the amountof debt held by the federal government has increased each year


Ownership of debt

Estimated ownership each year through time

Because a large variety of people own thenotes bills and bonds in the publicportion of the debt the US Treasury alsopublishes information that groups the typesof holders by general categories to portraywho owns United States debt In this dataset some of the public portion is moved andcombined with the total government portionbecause this amount is owned by the FederalReserve as part of United States monetarypolicy (See Federal Reserve System)

As is apparent from the chart a little lessthan half of the total national debt is owed to the Federal Reserve and intragovernmental holdings The foreign andinternational holders of the debt are also put together from the notes bills and bonds sections To the right is a chartfor the data as of June 2008

Foreign ownership

Composition of US Long-Term Treasury Debt held by foreign states Nov2005-Nov 2010 June figures are results of comprehensive Treasury Department

surveys

As of January 2011 foreigners owned $445trillion of US debt or approximately 47of the debt held by the public of $949trillion and 32 of the total debt of $141trillion The largest holders were the centralbanks of China ($11 trillion) and Japan($885 billion)[28] [29] The share held byforeign governments has grown over timerising from 25 of the public debt in2007[30] and 13 in 1988[31]

This exposure to potential financial orpolitical risk should foreign banks stopbuying Treasury securities or start sellingthem heavily was addressed in a June 2008report issued by the Bank of InternationalSettlements which stated Foreign investors in US dollar assets have seen big losses measured in dollars and stillbigger ones measured in their own currency While unlikely indeed highly improbable for public sector investors asudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely[32]

On May 20 2007 Kuwait discontinued pegging its currency exclusively to the dollar preferring to use the dollar ina basket of currencies[33] Syria made a similar announcement on June 4 2007[34] In September 2009 China Indiaand Russia said they were interested in buying IMF gold to diversify their dollar-denominated securities[35]

However in July 2010 Chinas State Administration of Foreign Exchange ruled out the option of dumping its vastholdings of US Treasury securities and said gold cannot become a main channel for investing our foreign exchangereserves because the market for gold is too small and prices are too volatile[36]


Forecasting the debt

2010 Budget Projected deficits and debt increases in PresidentObamas 2010 Budget

GAO Simulation assuming current spending levels continue

Tracking current levels of debt is acumbersome but rather straightforwardprocess Making future projections is muchmore difficult for a number of reasons Forexample before the September 11 2001attacks the George W Bush administrationprojected in the 2002 budget that therewould be a $1288 trillion surplus from 2001through 2004[37]

In the 2005 Mid-Session Review howeverthis had changed to a projected four-yeardeficit of $851 billion a swing of $2138trillion[38] The latter document states that49 percent of this swing was due toeconomic and technical re-estimates 29percent was due to tax relief (mainly the2001 and 2003 Bush tax cuts) and theremaining 22 percent was due to warhomeland and other enacted legislation(mainly expenditures for the War on TerrorIraq War and homeland security)

Projections between different groups willsometimes differ because they makedifferent assumptions For example inAugust 2003 a Congressional BudgetOffice report projected a $14 trillion deficitfrom 2004 through 2013[39]

However a mid-term and long-term jointanalysis a month later by the Center onBudget and Policy Priorities the Committeefor Economic Development and the Concord Coalition stated that In projecting deficits CBO follows mechanicalbaseline rules that do not allow it to account for the costs of any prospective tax or entitlement legislation no matterhow likely the enactment of such legislation may be The analysis added in a proposed tax cut extension andAlternative Minimum Tax reform (enacted by a 2005 act) prescription drug plan (Medicare Part D enacted in a2003 act) and further increases in defense homeland security international and domestic spending According tothe report this adjusts CBOs official ten-year projections for more realistic assumptions about the costs of budgetpolicies raising the projected deficit from $14 trillion to $5 trillion[40]

The 2010 Budget proposed by President Barack Obama projects significant debt increases both in terms of dollarsand relative to GDP[41] [42] The debt was projected to nearly double to $20 trillion by 2015 but was expected toincrease to nearly 100 of GDP by 2020 and remain at that level thereafter The estimates assumed real GDPgrowth (after inflation) ranging from 26 to 46 annually from 2010 through 2019 which exceeds Blue Chipconsensus estimates[43] These 2009 projections were subject to revision as the debt had in fact reached about 965of GDP by FY2011 much earlier than 2020


During FY 2008 approximately 766 of federal spending was in the following categories Departments of Healthand Human Services (198) Defense (203) and Veterans Affairs (118) Social Security Administration(182) interest on the public debt (66)[14]

The Office of Management and Budget forecasts that by the end of fiscal year 2012 gross federal debt will total$163 trillion Thus the projected debt will equal 101 of projected gross domestic product which represents amilestone in the US economy Public debt alone which excludes amounts that the government owes its citizens viavarious trust funds will be 67 of GDP by the end of fiscal 2012[44]

Historical analysis of government spending or debt relative to GDP can be misleading according to the GAO CBOand Treasury Department This is because demographic shifts and per-capita spending are causing Social Securityand MedicareMedicaid expenditures to grow significantly faster than GDP If this trend continues governmentsimulations under various assumptions project mandatory spending for these programs will exceed taxes dedicated tothese programs by more than $40 trillion over the next 75 years on a present value basis[45]

According to the GAO this will double debt-to-GDP ratios by 2040 and double them again by 2060 reaching 600percent by 2080[46] A GAO simulation indicates that Social Security Medicare and Medicaid expenditures alonewill exceed 20 of GDP by 2080 which is approximately the historical ratio of taxes collected by the federalgovernment In other words these mandatory programs alone will take up all government revenues under thissimulation[45]

Causes of change in debt

2001 vs 2009

Causes of Change in Federal Spending as GDP 2001-2009 from CBO Data

According to the CBO the US last had asurplus during fiscal year (FY) 2001 FromFY2001 to FY2009 spending increased by65 of GDP (from 182 of GDP to247) while taxes declined by 47 ofGDP (from 195 of GDP to 148) Thedrivers of the expense increases (expressedas of GDP) are Medicare amp Medicaid(17) Defense (16) Income Securitysuch as unemployment benefits and foodstamps (14) Social Security (06) andall other categories (12) The drivers oftax reductions are individual income taxes(-33) payroll taxes (-05) corporateincome taxes (-05) and other (-04)The 2009 spending level is the highestrelative to GDP in 40 years while the tax receipts are the lowest relative to GDP in 40 years The next highestspending year was 1985 (228) while the next lowest tax year was 2004 (161)[47]


2001 vs 2012

Causes for Changes in CBO Forecasts

The US budget situation has deterioratedsignificantly since 2001 when theCongressional Budget Office (CBO)forecast average annual surpluses ofapproximately $850 billion from 2009-2012The average deficit forecast in each of thoseyears as of June 2009 was approximately$1215 billion The New York Timesanalyzed this roughly $2 trillion swingseparating the causes into four majorcategories along with their share

bull Recessions or the business cycle (37)bull Policies enacted by President Bush

(33)bull Policies enacted by President Bush and

supported or extended by President Obama (20) andbull New policies from President Obama (10)CBO data is based only on current law so policy proposals that have yet to be made law are not included in theiranalysis The article states that President Obamarsquos agenda is responsible for only a sliver of the deficits but thathe does not have a realistic plan for reducing the deficit[48] Presidents have no Constitutional authority to levytaxes or spend money as this responsibility resides with the Congress although a Presidents priorities influenceCongressional action[49]

Peter Orszag the OMB Director under President Obama stated in a November 2009 that of the $9 trillion in deficitsforecast for the 2010-2019 period $5 trillion are due to programs from the prior administration including tax cutsfrom 2001 and 2003 and the unfunded Medicare Part D Another $35 trillion are due to the financial crisisincluding reductions in future tax revenues and additional spending for the social safety net such as unemploymentbenefits The remainder are stimulus and bailout programs related to the crisis[50]

2008 vs 2009The CBO reported in October 2009 reasons for the difference between the 2008 and 2009 deficits which wereapproximately $460 billion and $1410 billion respectively Key categories of changes included tax receipt declinesof $320 billion due to the effects of the recession and another $100 billion due to tax cuts in the stimulus bill (theAmerican Recovery and Reinvestment Act or ARRA) $245 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)and other bailout efforts $100 billion in additional spending for ARRA and another $185 billion due to increases inprimary budget categories such as Medicare Medicaid unemployment insurance Social Security and Defense -including the war effort in Afghanistan and Iraq This was the highest budget deficit relative to GDP (99) since1945[51] The national debt increased by $19 trillion during FY2009 versus the $10 trillion increase during2008[52]

The Obama Administration also made four significant accounting changes to more accurately report the total spending by the Federal government The four changes were 1) accounting for the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (rdquooverseas military contingenciesrdquo) in the budget rather than through the use of supplemental appropriations 2) assuming the Alternative Minimum Tax will be indexed for inflation 3) accounting for the full costs of Medicare reimbursements and 4) anticipating the inevitable expenditures for natural disaster relief According to administration officials these changes will make the debt over ten years look $27 trillion larger than it would


otherwise appear[53]

Risks and obstacles

Risks to the US dollar and economyA high debt level may affect inflation interest rates and economic growth A variety of factors are placingincreasing pressure on the value of the US dollar increasing the risk of devaluation or inflation and encouragingchallenges to dollars role as the worlds reserve currency If another currency or basket of currencies replaced thedollar as the reserve currency the US would face higher interest rates to attract capital reducing economic growthfor the long-term The Economist wrote in May 2009

Having spent a fortune bailing out their banks Western governments will have to pay a price in termsof higher taxes to meet the interest on that debt In the case of countries (like Britain and America) thathave trade as well as budget deficits those higher taxes will be needed to meet the claims of foreigncreditors Given the political implications of such austerity the temptation will be to default by stealthby letting their currencies depreciate Investors are increasingly alive to this danger [54]

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) the Federal Governments auditor argues that the US is on afiscally unsustainable path and that politicians and the electorate have been unwilling to change this path[14] The2010 US budget prepared by the President indicated annual debt increases of nearly $1 trillion annually through2019 projecting the total US national debt to grow to $233 trillion by 2019[43] Further the subprime mortgagecrisis has significantly increased the financial burden on the US government with over $10 trillion in commitmentsor guarantees and $26 trillion in investments or expenditures as of May 2009 only some of which are included inthe budget document[55]

The US also has a large trade deficit meaning imports exceed exports Such deficits are only possible if there is alarge foreign investment or a capital account surplus The balance of payments identity requires that a country (suchas the USA) running a current account deficit also have a capital account (investment) surplus of the same amountIn 2005 Ben Bernanke addressed the implications of the USAs high and rising current account (trade) deficitresulting from USA imports exceeding its exports Between 1996 and 2004 the USA current account deficitincreased by $650 billion from 15 to 58 of GDP[56]

Debt levels may also affect economic growth rates Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart reported in2010 that among the 20 advanced countries studied average annual GDP growth was 3-4 when debt was relativelymoderate or low (ie under 60 of GDP) but it dips to just 16 when debt was high (ie above 90 of GDP)[57]

The CBO reported several types of risk factors related to rising debt levels in a July 2010 publicationbull A growing portion of savings would go towards purchases of government debt rather than investments in

productive capital goods such as factories and computers leading to lower output and incomes than wouldotherwise occur

bull If higher marginal tax rates were used to pay rising interest costs savings would be reduced and work would bediscouraged

bull Rising interest costs would force reductions in important government programsbull Restrictions to the ability of policymakers to use fiscal policy to respond to economic challenges andbull An increased risk of a sudden fiscal crisis in which investors demand higher interest rates[58]


Rollover and maturity risksIn addition to the debt increase required to fund government spending in excess of tax revenues during a given yearsome Treasury securities issued in prior years mature and must be rolled-over or replaced with new securityissuance During the financial crisis the Treasury issued a sizable amount of relatively shorter-term debt whichcaused the average maturity on total Treasury debt to reach a 25-year low of just more than 50 months in 2009 As oflate 2009 roughly 43 of US public debt needed to be rolled over within 12 months the highest proportion sincethe mid-1980s The relatively short maturity of outstanding Treasury debt coupled with the increased reliance onforeign creditors puts the US at greater risk of sharply higher borrowing costs should risk perceptions changeabruptly in credit markets[57]

Long-term risks to financial health of federal government

Risks due to increasing entitlement spending according to GAOs projections of futuretrends

Several government agencies providebudget and debt data and analysisThese include the GovernmentAccountability Office (GAO) theCongressional Budget Office (CBO)the Office of Management and Budget(OMB) and the US TreasuryDepartment These agencies havereported that the federal government isfacing a series of critical long-termfinancing challenges This is becauseexpenditures related to entitlementprograms such as Social SecurityMedicare and Medicaid are growingconsiderably faster than the economyoverall as the population grows older

These agencies have indicated thatunder current law sometime between 2030 and 2040 mandatory spending (primarily Social Security MedicareMedicaid and interest on the national debt) will exceed tax revenue In other words all discretionary spending(eg defense homeland security law enforcement education etc) will require borrowing and related deficitspending These agencies have used such language as unsustainable and trainwreck to describe such a future[14]

While there is significant debate about solutions[59] the significant long-term risk posed by the increase inentitlement spending is widely recognized[60] with health care costs (Medicare and Medicaid) the primary riskcategory[61] [62] In a June 2010 opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal former chairman of the Federal ReserveAlan Greenspan noted that Only politically toxic cuts or rationing of medical care a marked rise in the eligible agefor health and retirement benefits or significant inflation can close the deficit[63] If significant reforms are notundertaken benefits under entitlement programs will exceed government income by over $40 trillion over the next75 years[62] According to the GAO this will cause debt ratios relative to GDP to double by 2040 and double againby 2060 reaching 600 percent by 2080[14]

In 2006 Professor Laurence Kotlikoff argued the United States must eventually choose between bankruptcyraising taxes or cutting payouts He assumes there will be ever-growing payment obligations from Medicare andMedicaid[64] Others who have attempted to bring this issue to the fore of Americas attention range from Ross Perotin his 1992 Presidential bid to motivational speaker Robert Kiyosaki and David Walker former head of theGovernment Accountability Office[65] [66]


Thomas Friedman has argued that increasing dependence on foreign sources of funding will render the US less ableto act independently[67]

Moodys Investors Service warned in March 2010 that the United States AAA-rated US Treasury bonds whilecurrently not in danger could be downgraded in the future if the US government failed to rein in public debtsaying that growing the economy cannot be the only solution[68]

There is a significant difference between the reported budget deficit and the change in debt The key differences are1) The Social Security surplus which reduces the off-budget deficit often reported in the media and 2)Non-budgeted spending such as for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars The debt increased by approximately $550billion on average each year during the 2003-2007 period but then increased over $1 trillion during FY 2008The cumulative debt of the United States in the past 8 completed fiscal years was approximately $43 trillion orabout 43 of the total national debt of ~$100 trillion as of September 2008[3] [4] [69]

Interest expense

Components of interest on the debt

Budgeted net interest on the publicdebt was approximately $240 billion infiscal years 2007 and 2008 Thisrepresented approximately 95 ofgovernment spending Interest was thefourth largest single budgeteddisbursement category after defenseSocial Security and Medicare[70]

Despite higher debt levels thisdeclined to $189 billion in 2009 orapproximately 5 of spending due tolower interest rates Average interestrates declined due to the crisis from16 in 2008 to 03 in 2009[71]

During FY2008 the government alsoaccrued a non-cash interest expense of$212 billion for intra-governmentaldebt primarily the Social Security Trust Fund for a total interest expense of $454 billion[72] This accrued interest isadded to the Social Security Trust Fund and therefore the national debt each year and will be paid to Social Securityrecipients in the future

Public debt owned by foreigners has increased to approximately 50 of the total or approximately $34 trillion[73]

As a result nearly 50 of the interest payments are now leaving the country which is different from past yearswhen interest was paid to US citizens holding the public debt Interest expenses are projected to grow dramaticallyas the US debt increases and interest rates rise from very low levels in 2009 to more typical historical levels CBOestimates that nearly half of the debt increases over the 2009-2019 period will be due to interest[74]

Should interest rates return to historical averages the interest cost would increase dramatically Historian NiallFerguson described the risk that foreign investors would demand higher interest rates as the US debt levels increaseover time in a November 2009 interview[75]


Monitoring the risks of increasing debt levelsVarious financial indicators may provide an early warning that market forces are reacting to an increasing level ofdebt Examples include Treasury security interest rates (yields) Treasury auction results credit default swap spreadsand TIPS spreadsbull Treasury note yields A rising yield for a security of a given maturity could indicate lower demand for Treasury

bonds among investors or nervousness about future rates of inflation The yield curve (a graph that relates theyields of similar securities of different maturities) provides similar information

bull Treasury auctions The ease with which new securities can be sold reflects the demand for them For example adifference between the interest rate that debt trades prior to auction and the yield required to clear the market atauction is called the tail A large auction ldquotailrdquo would be a sign of declining interest from the market TheTreasury also reports the bid-to-cover ratio for each auction which is the number of market bids received relativeto the number of bids accepted and the ratio of international buyers

bull Credit default swap (CDS) spreads CDS are insurance-like derivative products that offer protection against bonddefaults CDS spreads essentially measure the current market price of insurance against default When the marketperceives a bond is at an increased risk of default the CDS written on those bonds will increase in price

bull TIPS spreads A key measure of inflation expectations among US bond market investors is the differencebetween the yield on nominal Treasury bonds and the yield for Treasury inflation-protected securities or ldquoTIPSrdquoThis difference is a gauge of investorsrsquo beliefs about future US inflation rates A growing spread betweennominal Treasuries and TIPS would indicate that investors are concerned that US fiscal and monetary policycould lead to higher inflation in the future[57]

Debates

Is there a danger level of debtEconomists debate the level of debt relative to GDP that signals a red line or dangerous level or if any such levelexists Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart reported in January 2010 that 90 of GDP represents thisdanger level[76] Reinhart testified to the US Senate in February 2010 stating[77]

Our main finding is that across both advanced countries and emerging markets high debtGDP levels(90 percent and above) are associated with notably lower growth outcomes Above 90 percent mediangrowth rates fall one percent and average growth falls considerably more In addition for emergingmarkets there appears to be a more stringent threshold for total external debtGDP when external debtreaches 60 percent of GDP annual growth declines by about two percent and for higher levels growthrates are roughly cut in half Seldom do countries simply grow their way out of deep debt burdens

Economist Paul Krugman disputed the existence of a solid debt threshold or danger level arguing that low growthcauses high debt rather than the other way around[78] He also points out that in Europe Japan and the US this hasbeen the case In the US the only period of debt over 90 of GDP was after World War II when when real GDPwas falling not because of debt problems but because wartime mobilization was winding down and Rosie theRiveter was becoming a suburban housewife[79]

Economists also debate which debt figure is the right one to use Paul Krugman argued in May 2010 that the debtheld by the public is the right measure to use while Reinhart has testified to the Presidents Fiscal ReformCommission that gross debt is the right figure Certain members of the Commission are focusing on gross debt[78]

The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) cited research by several economists supporting the use of thelower debt held by the public figure as a more accurate measure of the debt burden disagreeing with theseCommission members[80]

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke stated in April 2010[81]


Neither experience nor economic theory clearly indicates the threshold at which government debt beginsto endanger prosperity and economic stability But given the significant costs and risks associated with arapidly rising federal debt our nation should soon put in place a credible plan for reducing deficits tosustainable levels over time

Current projections indicate the debt held by the public figure will hit 90 of GDP by 2020 the total debt was over97 of GDP during February 2011[82]

Is intragovernmental debt real debtThere is debate regarding the economic nature of the intragovernmental debt which was approximately $46 trillionin February 2011 A significant portion of the intragovernmental debt is the $26 trillion Social Security TrustFund[83]

For example the CBPP argues[80]

Debt held by the public is important because it reflects the extent to which the government goes intoprivate credit markets to borrow Such borrowing draws on private national saving and internationalsaving and therefore competes with investment in the nongovernmental sector (for factories andequipment research and development housing and so forth) Large increases in such borrowing canalso push up interest rates and increase the amount of future interest payments the federal governmentmust make to lenders outside of the United States which reduces Americansrsquo income By contrastintragovernmental debt (the other component of the gross debt) has no such effects because it is simplymoney the federal government owes (and pays interest on) to itself

If the US continues to run on budget deficits as projected by the CBO and OMB for the foreseeable future it willhave to issue marketable Treasury bills and bonds (ie debt held by the public) to pay for the projected shortfall inthe Social Security program This will result in debt held by the public replacing intragovernmental debt to theextent of the Social Security Trust Fund during the period the Trust Fund is liquidated which is expected to occurbetween 2015 and the mid-2030s This replacement of intragovernmental debt with debt held by the public wouldnot occur if a) The US runs on-budget surpluses sufficient to offset off-budget deficits in the Social Securityprogram or b) Social Security is reformed to maintain an off-budget surplus[84]


Debt clocks

The National Debt Clock in late 2009

In several cities around the United States there are national debtclocksmdashelectronic billboards that illustrate government debtSome also attempt to show the money owed per capita or perfamily There is a significant level of fluctuation day-to-day bothup and down so any clocks must be continually re-set withproper values

The first and most famous debt clock the National Debt Clocklocated near Times Square in New York City was created by realestate investor Seymour Durst[85] [86] With Seymours death hisson Douglas Durst took over responsibility for the clock throughthe Durst Organization

Although the total debt continued to increase the clock wasdeactivated in 2000 when the public debt began to decrease (afteradjusting for inflation) due to budget surpluses[87] Howeverfollowing large increases in the debt (total and public) a few yearslater the clock was reactivated in July 2002[88]

In 2004 the original clock was unmounted from its location near42nd Street the building has since made way for One Bryant ParkAn updated model which could run backwards was installed one block away on a Durst building at 1133 Avenue ofthe Americas Since September 30 2008 when the debt surpassed $10 trillion the clocks dollar sign has beenreplaced by the extra digit An upgrade adding to the digits had been announced for 2009 but so far has not beenundertaken

Appendix

National debt for selected years

Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in

$BillionsundeflatedTreas

[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512

Fiscal years 1940-2009 GDP figures are derived from February 2011 Office of Management and Budget figures which contained revisions of

prior year figures due to significant changes from prior GDP measurements Fiscal years 1950-2010 GDP measurements are derived from

December 2010 Bureau of Economic Analysis figures which also tend to be subject to revision especially more recent years The two measures in

Fiscal Years 1980 1990 and 2000-2009 diverge only slightly

Absolute differences from advance (one month after) BEA reports of GDP percent change to current findings (as of January 2011) found in

revisions are stated to be 12 plusmn 18 or a 95 probability of being within the range of 00-30 assuming the differences to occur according to

standard deviations from the average absolute difference of 12 Eg with an advance report of a $500 billion increase of a $15 trillion GDP for

example one could be 95 confident that the range would be 00 to 30 different than 33 (500 divide 15000) or $0 to $450 billion different than

the hypothetical $500 billion

Fiscal years 1940-1970 begin July 1 of the previous year (for example Fiscal Year 1940 begins July 1 1939 and ends June 30 1940) fiscal years

1980-2010 begin October 1 of the previous year

Intergovernmental debts before the Social Security Act are presumed to equal zero

1909-1930 calendar year GDP estimates are from MeasuringWorthcom [91] Fiscal Year estimates are derived from simple linear interpolation

(a1)Audited figure was about $5659 billion[92]



(a)Audited figure was said to be about the stated figure[5]








Foreign holders of US Treasury SecuritiesThe following is a list of the Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities as listed by the US Treasury (revised byJune 2010 survey completed February 28 2011)[73]

Leading Foreign Holders of US Treasury Securities

December 2010 November 2010

NationTerritory billions of dollars(est)

percent of total foreignholdings

billions of dollars(est)


China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198

United Kingdom 2721 61 2425 55

Oil exporters1 2119 48 2043 46

Brazil 1861 42 1898 43

Caribbean Banking Centers2 1686 38 1593 36

Hong Kong (Special AdministrativeRegion)

1342 30 1349 31

Switzerland 1070 24 1070 24

Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38

Subtotal of top 10 holders 34284 772 33995 770

Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000

1Saudi Arabia Venezuela Libya Iran Iraq the United Arab Emirates Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar EcuadorIndonesia Algeria Gabon and Nigeria2Bahamas Bermuda Cayman Islands Netherlands Antilles British Virgin Islands and Panama

Statistics and comparisonsbull US official gold reserves totaling 2750 million troy ounces have a book value as of 31 December 2010 of

approximately $116 billion[96] vs a commodity value as of 23 January 2011 of approximately $369 billion[97]

bull A total of 161000 tonnes of gold have been mined in human history as of 2009[98] This is roughly equivalent to5175 billion troy ounces which at $1350 per troy ounce would be $70 trillion

bull Foreign exchange reserves $133 billion as of December 2010[99]

bull The Strategic Petroleum Reserve had a value of approximately $65 billion as of January 2011 at a Market Priceof $98barrel with a $15barrel discount for sour crude[100]

bull The national debt equates to $44900 per person US population or $91500 per member of the US workingpopulation[101] as of December 2010

bull In 2008 $242 billion was spent on interest payments servicing the debt out of a total tax revenue of $25 trillionor 96 Including non-cash interest accrued primarily for Social Security interest was $454 billion or 18 of taxrevenue[72]

bull Total US household debt including mortgage loan and consumer debt was $114 trillion in 2005 Bycomparison total US household assets including real estate equipment and financial instruments such asmutual funds was $625 trillion in 2005[102]

bull Total US Consumer Credit Card revolving credit was $9310 billion in April 2009[103]

bull Total third world debt was estimated to be $13 trillion in 1990[104]


bull The US balance of trade deficit in goods and services was $7258 billion in 2005[105]

bull The global market capitalization for all stock markets that are members of the World Federation of Exchangeswas $325 trillion by the end of 2008[106]

bull The 2009 net worth of the 400 richest US citizens is $127 trillion[107]

bull According to a retrospective Brookings Institute study published in 1998 by the Nuclear Weapons Cost StudyCommittee (formed in 1993 by the W Alton Jones Foundation) the total expenditures for US nuclear weaponsfrom 1940 to 1998 was $55 trillion in 1996 Dollars[108] The total public debt at the end of fiscal year 1998 was$5478189000000 in 1998 Dollars[109] or $53 trillion in 1996 Dollars The entire public debt in 1998 wastherefore equivalent to the funds spent on the research development and deployment of US nuclear weaponsand nuclear weapons-related programs during the Cold War[108] [110] [111]

Table International debt comparisons

Gross debt as percentage of GDP

2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74

United Kingdom 47 94

United States 62 100

Asia1 37 41

Central Europe2 23 29

Latin America3 41 35

Sources IMF World Economic Outlook (emerging market economies) OECD Economic Outlook (advancedeconomies)[112]

1China Hong Kong SAR India Indonesia Korea Malaysia the Philippines Singapore and Thailand2The Czech Republic Hungary and Poland3Argentina Brazil Chile and Mexico


Recent additions to the public debt of the United States

Deficit and debt increases 2001-2009

Recent additions to US public debt[3] [4] [69] [87]

Fiscal year (begins1001 of prev year)

Value ofincrease$Billions

of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968

The more precise FY 1999-2010 debt figures are derived from Treasury audit results


The variations in the FY 2009-2010 figures are due to double-sourced or relatively preliminary GDP figures

Debt ceilingThe Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 established a statutory limit on federal debt[113] Congress had previouslyapproved each debt issuance separately The debt limit provided the US Treasury with more leeway in theadministration of debt allowing for modern management techniques in government financeThe US Treasury Department now conducts more than 200 sales of debt by auction every year The Treasury hasbeen granted authority by Congress to issue such debt as was needed to fund government operations as long as thetotal debt (excepting some small special classes) does not exceed a stated ceilingThe most recent increase in the US debt ceiling to $14294 trillion by HJRes 45 [114] was signed into law onFebruary 12 2010[115] Congress is currently considering whether and how much to extend the debt ceilingagain[116]

Even when the debt ceiling is reached the US Treasury has several mechanisms to temporarily acquire a limitedamount of funding to buy some time and not default[117] This was used in 2004 when the debt ceiling was reachedon October 14 2004 and actions were taken by the administration to stay below the debt ceiling[118] The ceiling waslater raised on November 16 2004 with $800 billions to a total of $8184 billions

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assets (http www imf org external np sta ir IRProcessWeb data 8802 pdf) International Monetary Fund [website] RetrievedJanuary 23 2011

[100] United States Department of Energy Strategic Petroleum Reserve Project Management Office (November 30 2010) Strategic petroleumreserve inventory (http www spr doe gov dir dir html) Strategic Petroleum Reserve [website] Retrieved January 23 2011^ Hamilton James (August 21 2005) Sweet and sour crude (http www econbrowser com archives 2005 08 sweet_and_sour html)Econbrowser Retrieved January 23 2011

[101] United States Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (December 2010) Labor Force Statistics from the Current PopulationSurvey Current News Releases Employment Situation (http www bls gov cps cps_over htmoverview) Bureau of Labor Statistics[website] Retrieved January 23 2011

[102] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (March 9 2006) Z1-Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States (http wwwfederalreserve gov releases z1 ) p 8 102 Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System [website] Retrieved January 29 2011


[103] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (June 5 2009) G19-Consumer Credit (http www federalreserve govRELEASES g19 ) Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System [website] Retrieved January 30 2011

[104] Rogoff Kenneth (1991) Third World Debt (http www econlib org library Enc1 ThirdWorldDebt html) Library of Economics andLiberty The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics [website] Retrieved January 30 2011

[105] United States Department of Commerce United States Census Bureau (February 19 2006) Foreign Trade Statistics Trade Highlights -2005 Highlights (http web archive org web 20060219071537 http www census gov foreign-trade statistics highlights annualhtml) US Census Bureau [website] Retrieved January 30 2011

[106] World Federation of Exchanges (April 2009) WFE Annual Report amp Statistics 2008 (http www world-exchanges org reports) p 84World Federation of Exchanges [website] Retrieved January 31 2011

[107] Miller Matthew and Greenberg Duncan (September 30 2009) The Forbes 400 (http www forbes com 2009 09 29forbes-400-buffett-gates-ellison-rich-list-09-intro html) Forbescom Retrieved January 31 2011

[108] Schwartz Stephen I Bruce G Blair The Brookings Institution Thomas S Blanton and William Burr the National Security ArchiveSteven M Kosiak Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments Arjun Makhijani Institute for Energy and Environmental ResearchRobert S Norris Natural Resources Defense Council Kevin ONeill Institute for Science and International Security John E Pike Federationof American Scientists William J Weida Global Resource Action Center for the Environment (1998) Atomic audit the costs andconsequences of US nuclear weapons since 1940 Brookings Institution Press pp 312105107461546551 ISBN 978-0815777748

[109] Historical Budget Tables (http www whitehouse gov omb budget Historicals )[110] The peak US inventory was around 35000 nuclear weapons The United States spent more than $55 trillion on the nuclear arms race an

amount equal to its national debt in 1998 Graham Jr Thomas (2002) Disarmament sketches three decades of arms control andinternational law USA University of Washington Press p 35 ISBN 978-0295982120

[111] the total figure will likely be equal to the $5 trillion national debt In short one quarter to one third of all military spending since WorldWar II has been devoted to nuclear weapons and their infrastructure page 33 Schwartz Steven I Nuclear Weapons Cost Study Committee(November 1995) Four Trillion Dollars and Counting (http books google com booksid=DQwAAAAAMBAJamp lpg=PA33ampdq=national debt attributed to nuclear weaponsamp pg=PA33v=onepageamp q=national debt attributed to nuclear weaponsamp f=false) Bulletin ofAtomic Scientists (Educational Foundation for Nuclear Science Inc) 51 (6) 32ndash53 ISSN 0096-3402

[112] Cecchetti Stephen G et al (February 2010) The future of public debt prospects and implications (http www bis org publ othp09pdf) p 3 Bank for International Settlements [website] Retrieved January 31 2011

[113] PL 65-43 40 Stat 288 enacted September 24 1917 Currently codified as amended as 31 USC sect 3101[114] http hdl loc gov loc uscongress legislation 111hjres45[115] Obama signs debt limit-paygo bill into law (http www reuters com article idUSTRE61B4AU20100212) (February 12 2010)

Reuters [website] Retrieved February 9 2011[116] Calmes Jackie (January 6 2011) Geithner asks Congress to raise US debt limit quickly (http www nytimes com 2011 01 07

business economy 07debt html) The New York Times [website] Retrieved February 9 2011[117] Wiesenthal Joe (January 14 2011) Nomura on Tim Geithners 5 magic tricks to keep the government from defaulting (http www

businessinsider com tim-geithners-bag-of-tricks-2011-1) Business Insider Retrieved February 9 2011[118] Beams Nick (November 8 2004) US debt ceiling to be lifted (http www wsws org articles 2004 nov2004 usde-n08 shtml)

World Socialist Web Site Retrieved February 9 2011[119] The Debt Limit History and Recent Increases (http fpc state gov documents organization 105193 pdf)

bull Wright Robert (2008) One Nation Under Debt Hamilton Jefferson and the History of What We Owe Mc-GrawHill ISBN 0071543937Argues that America completely paid off its first national debt but is unlikely to do soagain

bull Bonner William Wiggin Addison (2006) Empire of Debt the Rise of an Epic Financial Crisis WileyISBN 047178253X Argues that America is a world empire that uses credit in lieu of tribute and that historyshows this to be unsustainable

bull Cavanaugh Frances X (1996) The Truth About the National Debt Five Myths and One Reality Boston MassHarvard Business School Press ISBN 087584734X Argues that the US is in good economic condition and thattalk of the consequences of its debt is unduly alarmist

bull Hargreaves Eric L (1966) The National Debtbull Macdonald James (2006) A Free Nation Deep in Debt The Financial Roots of Democracy Princeton University

Press ISBN 0-691-12632-1 Argues that democracies eventually defeat autocracies because countries withrepresentative institutions are able to borrow more cheaply than those with autocratic governments (p 4) Bondmarkets also strengthen democracies internally by giving citizens some of the proverbial power of the purse andby aligning their interests with those of their governments

bull Rothbard Murray Newton (1994) The Case Against the Fed Auburn AL Ludwig Von Mises Institute ISBN 094546617X Describes the process of debt monetization by a nations central bank and its unfortunate


consequences on societybull Taylor George Rogers (ed) (1950) Hamilton and the National Debt

External linksbull Documentary about the debt Ten Trillion and Counting (http www pbs org wgbh pages frontline

tentrillion ) by PBS Frontlinebull Bureau of the Public Debt (http www publicdebt ustreas gov )

bull Debt Held by the Public amp Intragovernmental Holdings (http www treasurydirect gov NPBPDLoginapplication=np)

bull The United States Public Debt 1861 to 1975 (http eh net encyclopedia article=noll publicdebt)bull GAO Citizens Guide - 2008 (http www gao gov financial citizensguide2008 pdf)

Article Sources and Contributors 26

Article Sources and ContributorsUnited States public debt Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphpoldid=422422948 Contributors 478jjjz 5 albert square Aaronshavit Aaustin Abune Acegikmo1 Adamjames123Adamtheclown Adrockchalk AdultSwim Ahmed badda Ahovan Akamad Aklop Albyva Aliwishus Allstarecho An Sealgair Analoguni Andrew Delong Andrew Joyce Andy MarchbanksAngry bee Anna Lincoln Antandrus Antodav2007 Antonio Lopez Antony-22 Anubis-SG Ao333 Applesfornewyork Ardric47 Argon233 Arjayay Art LaPella Atub1 Ausman AutoGeekAveneer Axel Svensson BD2412 BGOATDoughnut BS24 Bachrach44 Badenoch Bdell555 Bdonlan Beck Beland Bento00 Bernard lacky Betterusername Bfiguras puppy Billymac00BisserR Blah42 Blaxthos Bluerasberry Bobblewik Bobo159 Bongwarrior Bosmon Brahmastra BrekekekexKoaxKoax Briansal Brogersoc Bsherr Btgogg Bugblatterbeast Bumm13Busha5a5a5 Butros Buy1get1free Campoftheamericas CanisRufus CapitalR Capricorn42 Capsela Catdude Centrx Chamal N CharlotteWebb Chaser Chinju Chris 73 Chris65536Chrism Christopher Parham Christopherdunlap CircleAdrian Citizen Premier Citynoise Cleared as filed College4life Countdown to oblivion Cowman109 Cremepuff222 Cretog8CrizCraig Csdidier Curps Cwolfsheep D-Rock DCGeist DGaryGrady DLH Dac04 Darknexus Darth Panda Dave1g Davemcarlson Daveswagon David Gimenez DavidSJ DebresserDeetdeet Dejo Delirium Deltabeignet Deon Steyn DerHexer Dev1n Dhammerindy Dismas Djdaedalus DocWatson42 DocendoDiscimus Dolemite17 Doomgrr Download DrJohnsonDrmies Dtgm Dunichol Dwightschrute1010 Dwo Eatcacti Edknol Elenseel Elias Mouawad Elisa Woods Emily Jensen Ender8282 Enviroboy Ep9206 Epbr123 Equilibrium007 ErathErindizmo Etphonehome Eusebeus Evercat Everyking Everyme Eyreland Facts and stats Facts707 Farcaster Febeling Feedmecereal Fjarlq Flickboy Francine3838 FratrepFreezingmariner Furrykef Fxer GS3 Gamaliel Gandalfxviv Gary King Gaytan Gcalis Gede Geek2003 Geipel Geoffreylandis Geomason Giraffedata Glloq Gracenotes Grampion76Grandma Got Divorced Greenfield Gregalton Grokmoo Ground Zero Guidelineguy Gvotno Hairy Dude Hemlock Martinis Hexydes Hmrox Hughcharlesparker Hvn0413 Ibbn IcairnsIgoldste IkWikiAnon ImperfectlyInformed Iridescent J 1982 JR Hercules Jdelanoy JCO312 JForget JGray JHP JJJJust JLaTondre JaGa Jakobat Janus303 Jaraalbe JarandaJasoncward Jawxin Jayanta Sen Jdevine Jeffq Jellonuts Jerryseinfeld Jiang Jjb Jm307 Jmanjmanjman Jmathies Jnestorius John Broughton John Reid John of Reading JohnOwensJohnpseudo Jonny-mt Joseph Solis in Australia Jshepard Jusdafax K KaLogain Kaszeta Katiegoesmew Kedar damle Keilana Kendelarosa5357 Kernadan000 Kevin Baas KhanadarhodesKhilkoff Kigali1 King nothing 2 Kmarinas86 KnowledgeOfSelf Knowledgebycoop Kotra Kridge Ktr101 Kukini Kurieeto Kurykh LHSA La Pianista Lalala666 LilHelpa LinemanLiontooth Lkt1126 Loftwyr Lorenwilton Loudsirens Luna Santin Lyckankommer M jurrens Mnelson MAAA1983 MER-C MToolen Mallocks Manfi Marcika Marek69 Mark FoskeyMartarius Martin Blank Masmayhem Mason092 Masute Mauls Mboverload McSush Mdeckerz Mendaliv Mentifisto Mescad Mfv2 Mibs Michael Devore Michael GreinerMichaelbusch Michaelmovies Mikcob Mild Bill Hiccup Minesweeper Miss Madeline Misterjosh Mld566 Mo0 MorgothX Morphh Mozkill Mr-Encyclopedia-Man MrFish Ms2gerMtiffany71 Mugutolishnaban Muhammad Hamza Mulad Mundus mutatio N Yo FACE N2e Nagelfar Nagy Natural Cut Navenotnilc Neitherday Nellanayrb Neutrality Ninja247Nirvana2013 Nkocharh Nlevitt Nogburt Nolook Noq Notgoogle Notjake13 Novasource NuSharon Nyoshimizu O18 Occas Octane20 Oleg Alexandrov Omegatron Onore Baka SamaOrderud Pablo Mayrgundter Pablosecca Pakaran Peace Inside Peace01234 PedEye1 PermanentE PeterCarolina Phaldo Philip Trueman PiMaster3 PierpontP PietrotheSecondPmanderson Poseurtech Poster123321 Prestonp ProfessorPaul Prolog Pschemp Paacutedraic MacUidhir RJHall RJaguar3 RandomP Ravensfire Rcbutcher RedWordSmith RexNL Reywas92Rhorte01 Riana Rich Farmbrough Rillian Ripcordjones Riumplus Rjensen Rjwilmsi Rlove Rmmadvertising Rodgermitchell Romosexual07 Ronnie3144 Rossami RoyBoy Rphhpr Rrparker Rricci Rror Rwessel Ryan S51438 SDC Sahrin Salamurai Salon Essahj Sam Hocevar Sam101200 Sanchonx Sasquatch Savedthat Sd31415 Sebmol Semioli Shangrilaista ShellKinney Sheridan Shootbamboo Shutupgeek Sicjedi Simultaneous movement Slambodog Sm8900 Smack Smurrayinchester Socks 01 Sooperhotshiz StaticGull StephenDow Student7Substar Superm401 Supremeknowledge SvenAERTS Swatjester Swedish pirate Tabletop Talu42 Tazmaniacs Terjen Teryx The Squicks The Thing That Should Not Be The allianceTheMightyOrb Themindset Thewriter23 Thingumbob TimVickers Timc Timotheus Canens Tobby72 Tobyw Topher67 TravisSwicegood Tritium6 Truthcommission Truther01 TulandroTurhaya Turliet TurtleShroom TutterMouse Tvdijk Twisted86 Uaflyer Ufwuct Unionhawk UnitedStatesian Unknownroad4 Uruiamme Usamrid Vajs Vald Versus22 VictorAnyakinVrenator Vt-aoe Vuo Warez143 Watercolour Wayne Slam Whitepaw Wideshanks Willking1979 Willpb Wisdom89 Woogee WoohooDoggy WordyGirl90 Wtmitchell Xeeron YanksoxYellowdesk Yeokaiwei Zauberberg Zeus ZorroIII Zzuuzz Zzyzx11 1311 anonymous edits

Image Sources Licenses and ContributorsImageUSDebtpng Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileUSDebtpng License Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 30 Contributors Alex1011 Athaenara Cwbm(commons) Joey-das-WBF Kozuch MGA73 Nick Anfinsen Pdbailey ResidentScholar Timeshifter 7 anonymous editsFileUS Federal Debtpng Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileUS_Federal_Debtpng License Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 30 Contributors UserGedefrImageUS Federal Debt as Percent of GDP by Presidentjpg Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileUS_Federal_Debt_as_Percent_of_GDP_by_Presidentjpg License PublicDomain Contributors UserCircleAdrian UserCwolfsheepImageHolders of the National Debt of the United Statesgif Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileHolders_of_the_National_Debt_of_the_United_Statesgif License PublicDomain Contributors UserAnaloguniFileFederal debt to GDP - 2000 to 2010png Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileFederal_debt_to_GDP_-_2000_to_2010png License GNU Free Documentation License Contributors UserFarcasterImageDeficit to Change in Debt Comparison - 2008png Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileDeficit_to_Change_in_Debt_Comparison_-_2008png License GNU FreeDocumentation License Contributors UserFarcasterImageEstimated ownership of treasury securities by yeargif Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileEstimated_ownership_of_treasury_securities_by_yeargif License PublicDomain Contributors UserAnaloguniFileComposition of US Long-Term Treasury Debt 2005-2010PNG Sourcehttpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileComposition_of_US_Long-Term_Treasury_Debt_2005-2010PNG License Public Domain Contributors UserResidentScholarFile2010 Budget - Deficit and Debt Increasespng Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=File2010_Budget_-_Deficit_and_Debt_Increasespng License GNU Free DocumentationLicense Contributors Farcaster (talk) 1854 1 March 2009 (UTC) Original uploader was Farcaster at enwikipediaImageDebt to GDP Forecast Chartpng Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileDebt_to_GDP_Forecast_Chartpng License unknown Contributors UserFarcasterFileFederal Spending - Cause of Change 2001 to 2009png Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileFederal_Spending_-_Cause_of_Change_2001_to_2009png License GNUFree Documentation License Contributors UserFarcasterFileCBO Forecast Changes for 2009-2012png Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileCBO_Forecast_Changes_for_2009-2012png License GNU Free DocumentationLicense Contributors Farcaster (talk) 2351 13 June 2009 (UTC) Original uploader was Farcaster at enwikipediaImageGAO Slidepng Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileGAO_Slidepng License Public Domain Contributors GAO Original uploader was Farcaster at enwikipediaImageInterest - Stacked bar chart 2006 - 2007png Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileInterest_-_Stacked_bar_chart_2006_-_2007png License unknown ContributorsUserFarcasterFileUS Debt Clock 15-09-2009JPG Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileUS_Debt_Clock_15-09-2009JPG License Creative Commons Attribution-Sharealike 30 Contributors UserJohanfoFileDeficits vs Debt Increases - 2009png Source httpenwikipediaorgwindexphptitle=FileDeficits_vs_Debt_Increases_-_2009png License GNU Free Documentation License Contributors Farcaster (talk) 1759 17 October 2009 (UTC) Original uploader was Farcaster at enwikipedia

LicenseCreative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 30 Unportedhttp creativecommons org licenses by-sa 3 0


History



Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac obligations excluded

Guaranteed obligations excluded

Unfunded obligations excluded



Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles

Risks to the US dollar and economy

Rollover and maturity risks


Interest expense

Monitoring the risks of increasing debt levels

Debates

Is there a danger level of debt

Is intragovernmental debt real debt

Debt clocks

Appendix


Foreign holders of US Treasury Securities

Statistics and comparisons



Debt ceiling

References

External links

License


History

The US Federal Debt from 1800 to 1999 (debt held by the public)

Graph of US gross public debt between 1940 and 2010 as a percentage of GDP brokendown by presidential terms Year numbers refer to end of the fiscal year (that is each year

tick points to October 1 [July 1 before 1977] rather than January 1 of its calendar year)with the rationale that the fiscal activities of the previous President and Congress impact

the economy for some period of time after the January inauguration of the subsequentoffice-holders

The United States has had public debtsince its inception Debts incurredduring the American RevolutionaryWar and under the Articles ofConfederation led to the first yearlyreported value of $7546347652 onJanuary 1 1791 From 1796 to 1811there were 14 surpluses and only 2deficits The first dramatic growthspurt of the debt occurred because ofthe War of 1812 In the first 20 yearsfollowing the War of 1812 18surpluses were experienced and the USpaid off 9997 of its debt

The second dramatic growth spurt ofthe debt occurred because of the CivilWar The debt was just $65 million in1860 but passed $1 billion in 1863 andhad reached $27 billion following thewar In the following 47 years Americareturned to the practice of runningsurpluses during times of peaceexperiencing 36 surpluses and only 11deficits During this period 55 of theUS national debt was paid off

The next period of major growth indebt came during WWI reaching $255billion at its conclusion It wasfollowed by 11 straight surpluses andsaw the debt reduced by 36 Thebuildup and involvement in World WarII plus social programs during the FDRoosevelt (because of the GreatDepression) and Truman presidencies in the 1930s and 40s caused a sixteenfold increase in the gross public debtfrom $16 billion in 1930 to $260 billion in 1950

After this period the growth of the gross public debt closely matched the rate of inflation where it tripled in sizefrom $260 billion in 1950 to around $909 billion in 1980 Gross debt in nominal dollars quadrupled during theReagan and Bush presidencies from 1980 to 1992 The net public debt quintupled in nominal terms

In nominal dollars the net public debt rose and then fell between 1992 and 2000 from $3T in 1992 to $34T in 2000During the administration of President George W Bush the gross public debt increased from $57 trillion inJanuary 2001 to $107 trillion by December 2008[3] Under President Barack Obama the debt increased from $107trillion to $142 trillion by February 2011[8]

Since the US economy has grown nearly every year since World War 2 the size of the national debt relative to the economy (ie as a percentage of gross domestic product or GDP) is another key measure Gross debt relative to

























Ownership of debt




Foreign ownership


surveys




















2001 vs 2009




2001 vs 2012











Risks and obstacles






















Interest expense














Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License

























Ownership of debt




Foreign ownership


surveys




















2001 vs 2009




2001 vs 2012











Risks and obstacles






















Interest expense














Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License
















2001 vs 2009




2001 vs 2012











Risks and obstacles






















Interest expense














Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License


2001 vs 2012











Risks and obstacles






















Interest expense














Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License



Risks and obstacles






















Interest expense














Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License













Interest expense














Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License







Debates















Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License









Debt clocks






Appendix


Endof

FiscalYear

GrossDebt in


[69]

GrossDebt in

$Billionsundeflated

OMB[87]

[89]

as of GDP

Low-Highest

or a - Treasaudit

DebtHeld ByPublic

($Billions)

as of GDP

(TreasMWOMB or

TreasBEA)

GDP$Billions

OMBBEA[4]

est=MWcom

1910 2653 80 2653 80 est 328

1920 2595 292 2595 292 est 886

1927 [90] 1851 192 1851 192 est 965

1930 1619 166 1619 166 est 974

1940 4297 5070 444-524 4297 421 968

1950 2573 2569 912-942 2190 802 27312817

1960 2863 2905 546-560 2368 456 51895239

1970 3709 3809 362-376 2832 280 10131026

1980 9077 9090 334 7119 261 2724

1990 3233 3206 560-564 2412 421 5735


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License


2000 (a1)5674 5629 a576 3410 347 9821

2001 (a2)5807 5770 a566 3320 325 10225

2002 (a3)6228 6198 a590 3540 336 10544

2003 (a)6783 6760 a618 3913 356 10980

2004 (a)7379 7355 a632 4296 368 11686

2005 (a4)7933 7905 a636 4592 369 12446

2006 (a5)8507 8451 a640 4829 365 13255

2007 (a6)9008 8951 a648 5035 362 13896

2008 (a7)10025 9986 a696 5803 402 14394

2009 (a8)11910 11876 a~844 7552 536 ~14098

2010 (a9)13562 13529 a~934 9023 622 ~1450814512
































China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License









China 11601 261 11641 264

Japan 8823 199 8759 198



Brazil 1861 42 1898 43



1342 30 1349 31


Taiwan 1551 35 1544 35

Russia 1510 34 1673 38


Grand Total 44396 1000 44138 1000



















2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License








2007 2011Forecast

Austria 62 82

France 70 99

Germany 65 85

Greece 104 130

Ireland 28 93

Italy 112 130

Japan 167 204

Netherlands 52 82

Portugal 71 97

Spain 42 74



Asia1 37 41











of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License







of GDP Totaldebt

$Billions

of GDP

1994 $282ndash292 40-42 ~$4650 666-672 1995 278-281 38 ~4950 670-678 1996 251-260 33-34 ~5200 672-676 1997 188 23 ~5400 654-660 1998 109-113 13 ~5500 632-638 1999 128-130 14 5641 612 2000 18 02 5659 576 2001 133 13 5792 566 2002 421 40 6213 590 2003 570 52 6783 618 2004 596 51 7379 632 2005 539 43 7918 636 2006 575 43 8493 640 2007 500 36 8993 648 2008 1018 71 10011 696 2009 1887 ~134 11898 ~844 2010 1653 ~114 13551 ~934 2011

(Oct10-Feb11)~633 ~14200 ~968



































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License


































































































































History








Ownership of debt

Foreign ownership



2001 vs 2009

2001 vs 2012

2008 vs 2009

Risks and obstacles




Interest expense


Debates



Debt clocks

Appendix






Debt ceiling

References

External links

License

united states public debt

Documents

gross debt

gross public debt

united states government

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national debt

thetotal debt

united states public

united states ofamerica