United States - Intelligence Community

•Central Intelligence Agency; Abroad•National Security Agency •National Reconnaissance Office Agency •National Geo-spatial Intelligence Agency

•Defense Intelligence Agency: Army, Air, Navy, Marine..

•Federal Bureau of Investigation; Home•Dept of Homeland Security Office and Int Analysis•National Counter terrorism Center•National Counter intelligence Executive

•Director of National Intelligence•National Intelligence Council

UK - Intelligence Agencies

•MI6 Secret Intelligence Service (SIS); Securing Int from Outside threats.

•Government Comn HQ (GCHQ)

•MI5 Security Service (SS); Home Security.

•National Criminal Intelligence Service (NCIS)

•Metropolitan Police (Scotland Yard)

•Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC)

India - Intelligence Agencies

•Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC)

•Research and Analysis Wing (RAW); Abroad

•Intelligence Bureau (IB); Home

•Defence Intelligence: DMI, Army, Air, Navy, Def Security Corps, Sp frontier Force, National Security Guards, Sp Security Bureau.

•Para-Mil Intelligence: e.g CRPF, BSF, Sp Protection Force, Rapid Reaction Force.

•Min of Home Affairs- CBI

•Min of Finance – Economic Int Council

Why Intelligence?

•Help decision-makers at every level to make informed decisions.

•Helps decision-makers/Government officials from being surprised.

•Correct intelligence will help the Government/ orgs to keep the initiative on their side.

•Intelligence is required both for offensive and defensive actions.

Definition•Intelligence is secret state or group activity to understand or influence foreign or domestic entities e.g FBI, MI-5.

•Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context.

•Intelligence errors are factual inaccuracies in analysis resulting from poor or missing data; intelligence failure is systemic organizational surprise resulting from incorrect, missing, discarded, or inadequate hypotheses.

IntelligenceCore Systems: Interoperability-Int op systems and applications.

Tasking: Direct and prioritize collection reqs. Form the interface between consumers and producers of int products.

Collection: Info comes from orgs, echelons, svcs, and int disciplines. These include but are not limited to tactical ground-based IEW systems, unmanned aerial vehicles, and space systems.

Processing: Convert, and correlate info into a form usable as combat int. At all echelons of the int architecture, and include both primary processing and secondary exploitation systems.

Dissemination: Provide the comns links - collection systems, processors, and users through physical comns channels, as well as networks, protocols and software, and databases and servers for the staging of products for dissemination.

Intelligence Cycle

Direction

The highest policy levels of government set, in the broadest sense, intelligence priorities and policies.

•Some HOG give quite specific orders, sometimes, illegal ones.

•Some say, “Do what you gotta do”.

•Nation state’s try to find out the threat to their national vital interests (NVIs).

•Can the Govt encroach upon the personal freedom and liberty?

•Thin line between personal freedom and liberty versus security and obligations to the nation! How to balance?

Collection

Obtain raw information (varieties of sources):

- Governmental sources: Ministries and depts.

- Non Governmental sources: Freely obtained info.

- Paid intelligence agencies.

- Obtained from friendly countries.

- Obtained from friendly organizations.

- Electronic/IT/ UAV/Satellite/Sig/ etc..- Agents

Contd..

Kathmandu

Kodari

SUNKOSHI

Dolalghat

Bhotekoshi

Dhulikhel PDL

TouristEmbassy staffsPaid agentsCommitted agentsDisguised friendsExpedition team

Analysis•Imagination. (Wrong/Right)•Interpretation. (Wrong/Right)

Analytic disputes-Vietnam war

Mil Comd HQ

O of Sec of Def CIA

Inaccurate?

Nat Int Estimate

•Priority. (too much of info; too many sources.•Correct processing.

Dissemination

•Communication channels

•Chain of command

•Established protocols

•Data-base

•Servers and networks

Intelligence Failure

•Direction: Policymakers fail to give direction.

•Collection: Int services fail to collect critical info.

•Analysis: Services analyze data incorrectly .

•Time: Failure to disseminate intelligence quickly enough .

•Right org/person: Failure to disseminate to the right decisionmakers

•Inaction; blaming one another.

John Boyd’s OODA loop(Designed for Air-Air Fighter Aircrafts)

Observe Be aware of threat/opportunity

Put the observation into the context of other information Orient

Make the best possible action plan that can be carried out in a timely manner.

Decide

Act Carry out the plan

Contd…

Observe Orient Decide Act

Act Decide Orient Observe

Observe Orient Decide Act

Interactions between the Int Cycle and OODA loop.

Int Collection Management•Open Source Intelligence (OSINT)

•Human Intelligence (HUMINT)

-Clandestine HUMINT

•Covert Action

•Direct Action (Mil)

•Clandestine Cell System

•Special reconnaissance

-Imagery Int (IMINT)

-Signal Int (IMINT)

(TV, Radio, Papers, Seminars etc…Dissemination helps common understanding.)

•Fr, UK and US Sp Op Forces

are regarded to be the best!

Contd…•By Alliances, Nations and Industries.

•Operational Platforms by Nation.•SigInt in modern History:.

-TechInt (Technical Intelligence).

-Measurement and Signature Intelligence.(MASINT)

-Electro-Optical MASINT.

-Nuclear MASINT.

-Geophysical MASINT.

-Radio Frequency MASINT.

-Materials MASINT.

(To sp treaty compliance, early warning, and force protection.)

Int-analysis Management

•Intelligent Analysis

•Cognitive traps for Intelligent Analysis

-Int Cycle security.

-Int dissemination management.

•Counter Intelligence-Counter-Int & Counter Terror Orgs.

-Counter Int Failure.

Ladder of priorities

4-B

4-A

3-B

3-A

2-B

2-A

1-B

1-AHigher Priotity

Least Priotity

Joint Intelligence

•Germany: Combat Intelligence Readiness Facility (UCIRF)

•UK: Joint Analysis Center (JAC). Jt Int Cttee.

•India: Jt. Int. Cttee. (JIC)

•USA: Director of National Intelligence and Natl Int Council

•UN: Joint military and civilian office (JMAC) is estd.

Policy

Each may compete for resources in the same Org.

Creative tension

•Law enforcement versus national int org.

•Foreign-oriented versus domestic-oriented organizations.

•Public versus private interests.

•Conflict between clandestine intelligence and covert action.

Conclusion

•Int org/agents are tasked to gather and forward infos to their respective centers so that it can be converted into meaningful and timely intelligence enabling the org/state to accomplish the task it has been undertaking.

•Nation states had creatively used the intelligence in sp of their National Interests both on peace and war.

•Many Nation states are using it effectively today.

•Immediate, short term and long term intelligence is planned and prioritized.

Sometimes, the int may not be timely, inaccurate or wrongly interpreted; but, there is no substitute to this.