united states department of agriculture national agricultural … · 2019-02-08 · 12:00 p.m....
TRANSCRIPT
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12:00 P.M.
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
Crop Production - Annual
Grain Stocks
Rice Stocks
Cotton Ginnings
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
February Crop ProductionExecutive Summary
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops Branch
February 8, 2019
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
Field Crops Stocks Fruit & Nuts Specialty Crops
Corn Corn Citrus Potatoes
Soybeans Soybeans Sweet Potatoes
All Cotton Sorghum Peppermint Oil
Sorghum Rice Spearmint Oil
Rice Hay Hops
Hay & Forage All Wheat Taro (Hawaii)
Peanuts Barley
Proso Millet Oats
Minor Oilseeds
Sugarcane
Sugarbeets
Tobacco
Pulse Crops
Winter Wheat
Contents
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
December Ag Survey Off-Farm Grain Stocks
Survey Type Farmer Reported Off-Farm Grain Stock Facilities
Collection MethodMail, Phone, Internet,
Personal Interview
Mail, Phone, Internet, Personal
Interview
Crops Included Field Crops
Corn, Soybeans, All Wheat,
Durum Wheat, Barley, Oats,
Sorghum, Pulse Crops
States All except HI All except AK, HI, and NV
Sample Size 81,967 ~8,500
Collection Period Nov 29 – Dec 19 Nov 30 – Dec 18
Survey Overview
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Principal Crops Planted AcreageUnited States
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
Year Principal CropsChange From
Previous Year
Million Acres
2009 319.0 -6.6
2010 315.4 -3.6
2011 314.3 -1.1
2012 324.3 +10.0
2013 324.9 +0.6
2014 326.7 +1.7
2015 319.1 -7.6
2016 319.0 -0.1
2017 318.3 -0.7
2018 319.6 +1.3
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320
301
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
330
335
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Million AcresPrincipal Crops
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Corn
Planted Mil Ac 89.1 -<0.1 -1.2
Harvested Mil Ac 81.7 -<0.1 -1.2
Yield Bu/Ac 176.4 -1.4 -0.1
Production Bil Bu 14.4 -1.4 -1.3
Stocks Bil Bu 12.0 NA -4.9
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176.4
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
150.0
160.0
170.0
180.0
190.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Bushels per AcreCorn for Grain Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
14.1
14.3
14.5
14.7
14.9
15.1
15.3
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels2018 United States Corn Production
Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimates Individual Industry Expectation
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13.7
14.7
14.1 13.4
11.7
14.7
15.4 15.3
16.9 16.916.6
12.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsCorn Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
11.85
11.95
12.05
12.15
12.25
12.35
12.45
December
Billion Bushels
2018 United States Corn StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimates Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Soybeans
Planted Mil Ac 89.2 +0.1 -1.1
Harvested Mil Ac 88.1 -0.3 -1.6
Yield Bu/Ac 51.6 -1.0 +4.7
Production Bil Bu 4.54 -1.2 +3.0
Stocks Bil Bu 3.74 NA +18.2
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51.6
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Bushels per AcreSoybean Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
4.25
4.35
4.45
4.55
4.65
4.75
4.85
August September October November Final
Billion Bushels2018 United States Soybean Production
Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimates Individual Industry Expectation
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3.17
3.50 3.48 3.31
3.21
3.50
4.024.12
4.49
4.71
4.54
3.74
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsSoybean Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Sep
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
3.40
3.45
3.50
3.55
3.60
3.65
3.70
3.75
3.80
3.85
3.90
December
Billion Bushels
2018 United States Soybean StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimates Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Season
All Cotton
Planted Mil Ac 14.1 +0.4 +10.9
Harvested Mil Ac 10.5 +1.5 -5.1
Yield Lb/Ac 838 -2.6 -7.4
Production Mil Bls 18.4 -1.1 -12.1
Cottonseed
Production Mil Tons 5.79 -1.1 -9.8
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838
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Pounds per AcreAll Cotton Yield
United States
Yield Linear (Yield)
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Sorghum
Planted Mil Ac 5.69 -1.8 +1.1
Harvested Mil Ac 5.06 -0.6 +0.3
Yield Bu/Ac 72.1 +1.0 +0.6
Production Mil Bu 365 +0.4 +0.9
Stocks Mil Bu 246 NA +8.3
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Rice
Planted Mil Ac 2.95 +0.1 +19.6
Harvested Mil Ac 2.92 +0.4 +22.8
Yield Lbs/Ac 7,692 +2.3 +2.5
Production Mil Cwt 224 +2.7 +25.8
Stocks Mil Cwt 139 NA +15.9
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228
245
273
227
236
220
249
236
263
217
248
139
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Million HundredweightRough Rice Stocks
United States
Supply Dec Mar Jun Aug
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
All Hay
Harvested Mil Ac 52.8 -4.0 +0.1
Yield Tons/Ac 2.34 -4.1 -3.7
Production Mil Tons 124 -8.0 -3.6
Stocks Mil Tons 79.1 NA -6.4
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
All Other Hay Mil Tons 71.0 -5.2 -2.0
Alfalfa Hay Mil Tons 52.6 -11.6 -5.7
Proso Millet Mil Bu 12.0 NA -19.5
Peanuts Bil Lbs 5.46 -0.2 -23.2
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
Canola Bil Lbs 3.62 -0.1 +18.4
Flaxseed Mil Bu 4.47 NA +16.2
Mustard Seed Mil Lbs 73.1 NA +24.2
Rapeseed Mil Lbs 8.23 NA -54.9
Safflower Mil Lbs 236 NA +34.3
Sunflowers Bil Lbs 2.12 +9.4 -1.0
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
All Tobacco Mil Lbs 533 -2.7 -24.9
Sugarbeets Mil Tons 33.1 -1.1 -6.2
Sugarcane Mil Tons 34.8 +2.9 +4.6
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
A. Winter Peas Thou Cwt 124 -15.1 +24.0
Dry Peas Mil Cwt 15.9 +14.8 +12.2
Dry Beans Mil Cwt 37.5 -0.9 +4.3
Lentils Mil Cwt 8.41 -4.3 +12.4
Wrinkled Seed Thou Cwt 389 NA +9.0
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Production
Potatoes Mil Cwt 454 <+0.1 <-0.1
Sweet Potatoes Mil Cwt 27.4 NA -23.2
Peppermint Oil Mil Lbs 5.38 NA -6.5
Spearmint Oil Mil Lbs 2.57 NA -8.0
Taro (Hawaii) Mil Lbs 2.99 NA -19.0
Hops Mil Lbs 107 NA +1.2
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
2018 Crop Production – Annual
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Estimate Year
Stocks
All Wheat Bil Bu 2.00 NA +6.7
Barley Mil Bu 153 NA -3.9
Oats Mil Bu 67.2 NA +1.2
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2.82
2.87
3.14
2.86
2.99
2.85
2.62
2.81
3.28
2.922.98
2.39
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19
Billion BushelsAll Wheat Stocks
United States
Supply Sep Dec Mar Jun
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
1.80
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
2.05
December
Billion Bushels
2018 United States All Wheat StocksIndustry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimates Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
Winter Wheat Seedings
% Change % Change
From From
Crop Unit February Previous Previous
2019 Forecast Season
Wheat, Winter
Planted Mil Ac 31.3 NA -3.8
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31.3
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Million AcresWinter Wheat Acres
United States
Planted Harvested
USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
NASSEstimate
LowOf Expectations
AverageOf Expectations
HighOf Expectations
31.0
31.5
32.0
32.5
33.0
33.5
December March June Final
Million Acres2019 United States Winter Wheat Acres
Industry Expectations vs NASS
NASS Estimate Individual Industry Expectation
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
February 2019 Crop Production
% Change
From
Crop Unit February Previous
2019 Jan 1 Dec 1 Season
Production
Oranges Mil Tons 5.54 NC +0.1 +41.3
Grapefruit Thou Tons 668 -1.2 -1.2 +29.2
Tangerines
& MandarinsThou Tons 968 NC -0.9 +20.4
Lemons Thou Tons 856 NA NC -3.6
% Change
From
Previous Forecasts
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
Release Date Report Title
February 20 Agricultural Prices (January Report)
February 22
Cattle on Feed (January Report)
CAIR: Cotton System
CAIR: Fats and Oils
CAIR: Grain Crushings
February 28
Agricultural Prices (February Report)
Cattle
Sheep and Goats
Upcoming Reports
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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USDA-NASS
2-8-19
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United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available Atwww.nass.usda.gov
For Questions202-720-2127
800-727-9540