United Nations International Programme for Short-term Statistics

United Nations Statistics Division

Training Workshop on the Compilation of Quarterly National Accounts for Economic Cooperation Organization Member Countries

8-11 March 2015

Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran

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Background and origin Overview and objectives Status

Outline of Presentation

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40th session of UNSC called for swift and coordinated statistical initiatives in response to global economic and financial crisis

UNSD organized 3 international seminars in collaboration with Eurostat, Statistics Canada, Statistics Netherlands and Russian Federal State Statistics Service• Ottawa, Canada (27-29 May 2009)• Scheveningen, Netherlands (14-16 December 2009)• Moscow, Russian Federation (17-19 November 2010)

European Colloquium in Luxembourg (26-29 September 2010) also discussed statistical initiatives in response to the crisis

Background and origin

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Outcome: An international work programme for short-term statistics with 4 themes was developed for consideration by UNSC • Cyclical composite indicators• Economic tendency surveys• Rapid estimates• Data template and analytical indicators

Background and origin

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Each theme was led by a working group• Cyclical composite indicators

▫ Statistics Netherlands (lead agency)▫ Eurostat▫ Conference Board▫ UNSD

• Economic tendency surveys▫ UNSD (lead agency)▫ Eurostat▫ European Commission▫ OECD▫ KOF-ETH Zurich

Background and origin

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• Rapid estimates▫ Eurostat (lead agency)▫ Statistics Netherlands▫ UNSD

• Data template and analytical indicators▫ UNSD (lead agency)▫ Eurostat▫ NSOs of Brazil and India

42nd session of UNSC agreed with proposed international work programme

Background and origin

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Cyclical composite indicators Cyclical composite indicators

• Address ongoing concerns in respect of assessing short-term changes in economic activities

• Serve as integral part of early warning system by providing information on occurrence and timing of economic upturns and downturns

Aims to provide best practices and harmonized principles on compilation and reporting of cyclical composite indicators

No existing international statistical guidance Key deliverables

• Handbook on cyclical composite indicators• Inventory of country practices through a global assessment

Overview and objectives

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Economic tendency surveys Economic tendency surveys

• Provide qualitative information that cannot be collected using quantitative statistical methods

• Provide cost-effective means of generating timely information on short-term economic developments

• Serve as integral part of early warning system Aims to provide best practices and harmonized principles on

tendency survey sample selection, questionnaire design, survey questions, survey execution, data processing and use of composite tendency indicators

Key deliverable• Handbook on economic tendency surveys

Overview and objectives

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Rapid estimates Rapid estimates

• Are available with relatively shorter time lag• Provide first official assessment of short-term changes in

economic activities Aims to develop international statistical guidelines on best

practices and harmonized principles on compilation and reporting of rapid estimates of key macroeconomic indicators

No existing international statistical guidance Key deliverables

• Glossary of terms• Handbook on rapid estimates• Inventory of country practices through a global assessment

Overview and objectives

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Data template and analytical indicators Aims to establish internationally-accepted data and metadata

template for short-term statistics for use in• Macroeconomic surveillance• Early warning of economic and financial vulnerabilities• Detection of turning points in business cycles

Key deliverables• Internationally-accepted data template with corresponding

metadata• Handbook on data template and metadata for short-term

statistics• Updated knowledge base on economic statistics

Overview and objectives

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Data template for short-term statistics

Overview

Indicator description Tier Periodicity Set 1: National accounts

1.1Quarterly national accounts: Flash GDP estimate

Tier 1 Quarterly

1.2Quarterly national accounts: GDP full release

1.2.1 by expenditure Tier 1 Quarterly 1.2.2 by production Tier 1 Quarterly 1.2.3 by income Tier 2 Quarterly 1.3 Quarterly sector accounts Tier 3 Quarterly

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Data template for short-term statisticsSet 2: Production and turnover

2.1Production index for industry, by major division (mining, manufacturing, electricity, water, etc.)

Tier 1 Monthly

2.2 Production index for construction Tier 2 Monthly 2.3 Turnover index for retail trade by major division Tier 2 Monthly 2.4 Turnover index for industry by major division Tier 2 Monthly

2.5Turnover index for other services by major division (excluding financial services and non-commercial services)

Tier 2 Monthly

2.6New orders index for industry by major ISIC division (for those that work on order)

Tier 3 Monthly

2.7New orders index for construction (building permits or housing starts)

Tier 2 Monthly

2.8Commodity production as relevant and other indicators of economic activity

Tier 3 Monthly

Agricultural products Minerals New car registrations/sales New commercial vehicle registrations/sales Tourist arrivals

Overview and objectives

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Data template for short-term statistics

Set 3: Prices3.1 Consumer price index Tier 1 Monthly 3.2 Producer price index Tier 1 Monthly 3.3 Import price index Tier 1 Monthly 3.4 Export price index Tier 1 Monthly

Set 4: Labour market 4.1 Unemployment Tier 1 Quarterly 4.2 Unemployment rate Tier 1 Quarterly

4.3Employment total and by economic activity

Tier 1 Quarterly

4.4 Hourly wage rate Tier 2 Quarterly 4.5 Hours of work Tier 2 Quarterly

Overview and objectives

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Chapter 1: Data template for short-term statisticsSet 5: External sector

5 Exports and imports (of goods and services) Tier 1 Monthly

5International investment position (IIP), specify balances and components

Tier 2 Quarterly

5 Official reserve assets Tier 1 Monthly

5 External debt (by sector, maturity and foreign currency) Tier 1 Quarterly

Set 6: Financial sector 6 Central Bank net foreign assets Tier 1 Monthly 6 Central Bank domestic lending Tier 1 Monthly 6 Central Bank reserve money Tier 1 Monthly 6 Depository corporations net foreign assets Tier 1 Monthly 7 Depository corporations domestic lending Tier 1 Monthly 7 Depository corporations broad money liabilities Tier 1 Monthly

7Other financial corporations balance sheet, assets and liabilities by sector.

Tier 2 Monthly

7 Financial corporate profits Tier 2 Quarterly 7 Financial corporate debt Tier 2 Monthly

6Others as relevant: nonperforming loans of depository corporations, capital adequacy ratios, other financial stability indicators, etc.

Overview and objectives

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Chapter 1 (Data template for short-term statistics)Set 7: General government sector

7.1 Revenue Tier 1 Monthly 7.2 Expense Tier 1 Monthly

7.3Net operating balance (= Revenue – Expense)

Tier 1 Monthly

7.4 Net acquisition of non-financial assets Tier 2 Quarterly

7.5 Expenditure Tier 2 Quarterly

7.6Net lending/net borrowing (= Revenue - Expenditure)

Tier 2 Quarterly

7.7 Gross debt Tier 2 Quarterly Set 8: Household sector

8.1 Household disposable income Tier 2 Quarterly 8.2 Household saving Tier 2 Quarterly 8.3 Household debt Tier 2 Quarterly

8.4

Other as relevant: debt service and principal payments, and defaults on home mortgages, credit card debt and car loans etc.

Overview and objectives

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Data template for short-term statistics

Set 11: Real estate market 11.1 Residential property price index Tier 2 Quarterly 11.2 New house sales Tier 3 Monthly 11.3 Existing house sales Tier 3 Monthly

Set 12: Economic sentiment 12.1 Consumer confidence Tier 2 Monthly 12.2 Business confidence Tier 2 Monthly 12.3 Composite Business Cycle Indicators 12.3.1 Leading Indicator Tier 3 Monthly 12.3.2 Coincident Indicator Tier 3 Monthly 12.3.3 Lagging Indicator Tier 3 Monthly

Overview and objectives

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Activities including the preparation of handbooks under each of the 4 themes are in various stages of progress under the aegis of a steering group on short-term statistics comprising• Statistics Canada• Statistics Netherlands• Russian Federal State Statistics Service• UNSD• Eurostat

First draft of handbook on economic tendency surveys was circulated for global consultation in June 2014

Status

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Thank You