unit commitment under increased wind

18
Unit Commitment under Increased Wind Kevin Kim PENSA Summer 2011

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Unit Commitment under Increased Wind. Kevin Kim PENSA Summer 2011. Energy Markets: Overview. Demand. RTO. Energy Consumer. Schedule. Supply. Power Generators. Unit Commitment Problem. How much demand do we need to meet tomorrow? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Kevin KimPENSA Summer 2011

Page 2: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Energy Markets: Overview

Energy Consumer

Demand

RTO

Power Generators

Supply Schedule

Page 3: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Unit Commitment ProblemHow much demand do we need to meet tomorrow?How should we schedule our generators to meet

100% of this demand?How do we minimize overages/shortages in energy?

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8000

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Page 4: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Challenge 1: Random DemandHow much demand do we have to satisfy tomorrow?How should we schedule our power generators

tomorrow to meet this demand?

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 18060000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

Page 5: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Challenge 2: Generator LimitationsMany plants take several hours to warm up

before they can be used.Some plants turn on quickly, but they’re

much more expensive and can’t generate as much power

Coal Plant~10 hours to turn on.~$50/MWMaxed at ~500 MW

Natural Gas Plant~0.1 hours to turn on~$300/MWMaxed at ~20 MW

Page 6: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Now, the biggest challenge….

Page 7: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

WIND ENERGYClean, renewable, and low cost/MW. However, wind is VOLATILE.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8000

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Page 8: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Challenge 3: Random SupplyWith wind energy, part of our energy supply

is also random.

25 75 125 175 2250

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Actual WindPredicted windActual DemandTotal Actual Power

Page 9: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Wind Energy: NewsDepartment of

EnergyTarget of 20% wind

penetration by 2030

Google$5 billion project to

build 350-mile cable on the east coast to power offshore wind farms.

Page 10: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

We solve the unit commitment problem with a math model….

Page 11: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Model: Basic Algorithm1. Predict demand and wind for tomorrow (t=1).2. Schedule generators based on these forecasts.3. Now, at tomorrow (t=1), change the outputs of

the faster generators to correct for errors in forecast

4. Run the following cases and compare costs:1. 5% wind penetration2. 20% wind penetration3. 40% wind penetration4. 60% wind penetration

Page 12: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Model: A Sneak Peek

…..…

Page 13: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Sample Output

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 8000

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Actual WindPredicted windActual DemandTotal Actual Power

Page 14: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

The cost of randomness

Page 15: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

What if we could predict wind…

Page 16: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

What if wind were constant…

Page 17: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

The reality

Page 18: Unit Commitment under Increased Wind

Future WorkReduce shortages in stochastic wind casesReduce cost in stochastic wind cases.Analyze effects of offshore wind.