unit 2: demography (population studies) i. population statistics your first question should always...

Unit 2: DemographyUnit 2: Demography

(Population Studies)(Population Studies)

I. Population StatisticsI. Population Statistics

• Your first question should always be, Your first question should always be, “Where is the data coming from?”“Where is the data coming from?”After all, Figures don’t lie, but the liars canAfter all, Figures don’t lie, but the liars can

figure!figure!

• Basic terminologyBasic terminology

Have you heard the phrase, “The correlationHave you heard the phrase, “The correlation

between _____ & ____ is very weak/strong”between _____ & ____ is very weak/strong”

• What is a correlation?? What is a correlation??

CorrelationCorrelation• Measures how related two variables under Measures how related two variables under

study arestudy are

• Depicted as #s b/t +1 and -1Depicted as #s b/t +1 and -1

• Determines:Determines:– STRENGTHSTRENGTH

• Closer to 1/-1 = strong correlationCloser to 1/-1 = strong correlation• Closer to 0 = weak/no correlationCloser to 0 = weak/no correlation

– DIRECTION (positive or negative)DIRECTION (positive or negative)

• Determined through statistical magic!Determined through statistical magic!

Practice determining Strength…Practice determining Strength…

Which is stronger?Which is stronger?

A. -.8 or +.5A. -.8 or +.5

B. .2 or - .3B. .2 or - .3

C. .9 or .1C. .9 or .1

D. .5 or -.42D. .5 or -.42

E. -.9 or .9E. -.9 or .9

Let’s look at Scatter Plots Let’s look at Scatter Plots (they (they show the variables being measured)show the variables being measured)

• Remember, close to zero = weak Remember, close to zero = weak relationshiprelationship

OROR• Close to zero = two variables are unrelatedClose to zero = two variables are unrelated• Ask yourself: Is it going NE or NW?Ask yourself: Is it going NE or NW?

– NE = “Positive” = both variables increase OR NE = “Positive” = both variables increase OR both decrease (also called “direct relationship”)both decrease (also called “direct relationship”)

– SE = “Negative” = One variable increases SE = “Negative” = One variable increases other decreases (also called “inverse other decreases (also called “inverse relationship”)relationship”)

• Correlations do NOT = causation!!!Correlations do NOT = causation!!!

Scatter Plots

What would a strong negative What would a strong negative relationship look like?relationship look like?

Draw one on your piece of paper with fifteen Draw one on your piece of paper with fifteen plotsplots

TRUE or FALSETRUE or FALSE

1.1. If all the plots fall along an imaginary line If all the plots fall along an imaginary line the relationship is strong and close to 1.0.the relationship is strong and close to 1.0.

2.2. If the plots all fall along an imaginary line If the plots all fall along an imaginary line except for one, then the relationship except for one, then the relationship cannot be strong.cannot be strong.

3.3. If there seems to be no spatial relationship If there seems to be no spatial relationship among the plots than there is a very weak among the plots than there is a very weak or insignificant relationship among the two or insignificant relationship among the two variables.variables.

–

Feeble positive,

though not zero. – The

Pearson Correlation

coefficient is

.42.

10 Questions10 Questions• Positive or negative correlation? Strong or weak?Positive or negative correlation? Strong or weak?

A.A. Identical twins’ IQ scores?Identical twins’ IQ scores?B.B. Age and wealth?Age and wealth?C.C. Miles to the core and wealth?Miles to the core and wealth?D.D. Caloric intake to weight?Caloric intake to weight?E.E. Geographical knowledge and sex appeal? Geographical knowledge and sex appeal? F.F. Number of face tattoos to sex appeal?Number of face tattoos to sex appeal?G.G. Affluence and family sizeAffluence and family sizeH.H. AP Human Geo GPA and score on AP ExamAP Human Geo GPA and score on AP ExamI.I. Alcohol Intake and balance/consciousness LOLAlcohol Intake and balance/consciousness LOLJ.J. Sarcasm in answers and Exam Scores??Sarcasm in answers and Exam Scores??

• Next scatter plot… what correlation coefficient Next scatter plot… what correlation coefficient would you expect?would you expect?

Back to Population Statistics…

IA. Population concentrationsIA. Population concentrations• Along coastlines Along coastlines • Northern hemisphereNorthern hemisphere• EurasiaEurasia

Highest Population Concentrations

• East Asia

• South Asia

• South East Asia

• Euope

• Others

• TPS – relative population, Highest Intraregional concetration, perentage of world population

Lowest Concentrations

• Dry – examples?

• Wet – examples?

• Cold – examples?

• High – examples?

Climates’ “carrying capacity”Climates’ “carrying capacity”

• The amount of life a particular place can The amount of life a particular place can sustainsustain

1.1. H. Subtropical H. Subtropical (USA, China, Japan, Australia)(USA, China, Japan, Australia)

2.2. H. continental H. continental (USA, China, Japan, Europe)(USA, China, Japan, Europe)

3.3. Mediterranean Mediterranean (USA, Europe)(USA, Europe)

4.4. Wet and Dry trop Wet and Dry trop (India)(India)

• Lowest carrying capacities:Lowest carrying capacities:– AridArid– Ice Cap/TundraIce Cap/Tundra

Population Density

• A review:– Arithmetic– Physiological– Agricultural

1. Birth Rate (CBR)1. Birth Rate (CBR)• Calculated how?Calculated how?• High =40+High =40+ Low = <15Low = <15• Wealth and CBRWealth and CBR

– Positive/negative correlation?Positive/negative correlation?– Exceptions: China (15.3) Eastern EuropeExceptions: China (15.3) Eastern Europe

• Highest: Niger and Mali @ 50 Highest: Niger and Mali @ 50 (babies having babies)(babies having babies)

• Lowest: Germany and Japan @ 8Lowest: Germany and Japan @ 8• U.S.: 14.2U.S.: 14.2• World average = 20World average = 20• G Hall CBR = 173!!!G Hall CBR = 173!!!

2. Death Rate (CDR)2. Death Rate (CDR)• Calculated?Calculated?• High = 17+High = 17+ Low = <10 Low = <10• Stat can change dramatically Stat can change dramatically

– War, pandemic, famine, etc. War, pandemic, famine, etc. – Western Hem in 16th Century was 900/1,000Western Hem in 16th Century was 900/1,000

• Correlation Wealth and CDR?Correlation Wealth and CDR?– No correlationNo correlation– Oil rich countriesOil rich countries– Some MDCs HIGHER than LDCs in general (Eastern Some MDCs HIGHER than LDCs in general (Eastern

Europe)Europe)

• Highest: Swaziland (30) and Angola (25)Highest: Swaziland (30) and Angola (25)• Lowest: Kuwait (2.4) and U.A.E. (2.2)Lowest: Kuwait (2.4) and U.A.E. (2.2)• U.S.: 8U.S.: 8

Why is the birth rate harder to change than the death rate?

Tendencies

• poverty = high death rates except in communist states

Worldwide this has declined more rapidly than the Birth Rates.

CDR in Western Hem. in 16th CDR in Western Hem. in 16th CenturyCentury

CDR

This stat can change dramatically: Pandemics Famine

War Ethnic Cleansing

We will call these “positive checks”

Joke: So, if there is a negative correlation between “doing it” and CDR shouldn’t…. (Mr. Blass 2006)

3. Natural Rate of Increase (NRI) or 3. Natural Rate of Increase (NRI) or (RNI) or (NIR)(RNI) or (NIR)

• Calculated how?Calculated how?

• Ex: CBR 20 CDR 5 THEN NIR = 15/1000 = Ex: CBR 20 CDR 5 THEN NIR = 15/1000 = 1.5%1.5%

• High = 2-3%High = 2-3% Low = Less than 1%Low = Less than 1%

• USA formula CBR 14 minus CDR 8 = USA formula CBR 14 minus CDR 8 = 6/1,000 = .6%6/1,000 = .6%

• Europe (except for Ireland) has a negative Europe (except for Ireland) has a negative NRINRI

Don’t be tricked by the College Board!

If the CBR is 30 and the CDR is 10, what would be the NRI?

A. 20

B. 2

C. 20%

D. negative 20

E. 2%

4. Population growth rates4. Population growth rates• Calculated how?Calculated how?

• High = 2+%High = 2+% Low = <1% (negative)Low = <1% (negative)• U.S.: 14 (CBR) – 8 (CDR) + Net migration 3.05 (per 1000) = U.S.: 14 (CBR) – 8 (CDR) + Net migration 3.05 (per 1000) =

9/1000 = .9%9/1000 = .9%

• Population Growth trendsPopulation Growth trends– Negative or Positive Correlations?Negative or Positive Correlations?

• Women’s rights Women’s rights • Economic growthEconomic growth• Literacy rateLiteracy rate

Notice Some Trends?

5. Total Fertility Rates (TFR)5. Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (ages 15-49) (ages 15-49)

• 2.6 for the world today2.6 for the world today• 8.1 highest in history 8.1 highest in history • 2.33 stability = “replacement rate”2.33 stability = “replacement rate”

– 2.1 in industrialized nations2.1 in industrialized nations– 2.5+ in peripheral nation2.5+ in peripheral nation– Why not 2.0? Why not 2.0? – Mortality rates of women before they can have childrenMortality rates of women before they can have children

• Comparisons:Comparisons:– High: Mali (7.4) Niger (7.4) (a lot of babies!!)High: Mali (7.4) Niger (7.4) (a lot of babies!!)– U.S.: 2.09U.S.: 2.09– Low: Singapore (1.07) Taiwan (1.1)Low: Singapore (1.07) Taiwan (1.1)

• Lower fertility rates: Cause for optimism?Lower fertility rates: Cause for optimism?

How can a country with a declining TFR continue to have an increasing NRI?

This is called “demographic momentum”

What do you think “homeostatic plateau” means?

6. Doubling Time6. Doubling Time• Def.?Def.?

• Assumes constant rate of pop. growthAssumes constant rate of pop. growth

• World’s doubling time is 51 yearsWorld’s doubling time is 51 years– As TFR increases the doubling time As TFR increases the doubling time

___________.___________.– At 1% growth rate it takes 70 years to doubleAt 1% growth rate it takes 70 years to double– At 2% growth rate takes 35 years to doubleAt 2% growth rate takes 35 years to double

• U.S. = 70/.9% = 78U.S. = 70/.9% = 78

• What is Eastern Europe’s doubling time?What is Eastern Europe’s doubling time?

7. Dependency ratio7. Dependency ratio• Calculated: Calculated:

population <15 and 65+ divided bypopulation <15 and 65+ divided by

working-age population (those aged 15-64)working-age population (those aged 15-64)

• Dependency ratio is a measure of the Dependency ratio is a measure of the dependence that non-working people have dependence that non-working people have on working people.on working people.– Ex. Dependency ratio of 0.9 means there are 9 Ex. Dependency ratio of 0.9 means there are 9

dependants for every 10 working-age peopledependants for every 10 working-age people

• Keep in mind:Keep in mind:– Negative correlation b/t dependency ratio and Negative correlation b/t dependency ratio and

the ability to take care of dependentsthe ability to take care of dependents– Future for the U.S.?Future for the U.S.?

Dependency ratio cont.Dependency ratio cont.

• One should bear in mind that in many One should bear in mind that in many LDCs that there are a large number of LDCs that there are a large number of people who are underemployed who would people who are underemployed who would be counted amongst the working age be counted amongst the working age population. This reflects very low levels of population. This reflects very low levels of productivity and skewed dependency productivity and skewed dependency ratiosratios

• It should also be remembered that many It should also be remembered that many children in Zambia are economically active children in Zambia are economically active either working on the land or in the either working on the land or in the informal sector of the economy (throws off informal sector of the economy (throws off dependency ratio)dependency ratio)

The dependency ratio is a measure of the dependence that non-working people

have on working people.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/demographer.html

8. Life Expectancy8. Life Expectancy# years expected to live for babies # years expected to live for babies

born this yearborn this year

What do you predict your life What do you predict your life expectancy to be?expectancy to be?

• http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.htmlCalcForm.html

• Almost 2.5 million Americans died last year Almost 2.5 million Americans died last year – 650,000 heart disease650,000 heart disease– 550,000 cancer550,000 cancer– 150,000 stroke150,000 stroke– 73,000 diabetes73,000 diabetes

• Comparisons:Comparisons:– High: Japan (82) Singapore (81.8)High: Japan (82) Singapore (81.8)– U.S.: 78 (45U.S.: 78 (45thth))– Low: Swaziland (32.2) Angola (37.6)Low: Swaziland (32.2) Angola (37.6)– World avg. (65.8)World avg. (65.8)

Homework:

Plug in false figures with the goal of having the lowest life expectancy.

• http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html

9. Infant Mortality Rates… 9. Infant Mortality Rates… very very tragic stufftragic stuff

• # babies who die before their first birthday # babies who die before their first birthday out of 1,000 live birthsout of 1,000 live births

• Does not include abortions or miscarriagesDoes not include abortions or miscarriages• Contrast MDC v. LDCContrast MDC v. LDC• Correlation w/ wealth?Correlation w/ wealth?• Comparisons:Comparisons:

– High: Angola (184) Sierra Leone (158) High: Angola (184) Sierra Leone (158) Afghanistan (157)Afghanistan (157)

– Low: Japan (2.8) Sweden (2.76) Singapore (2.3)Low: Japan (2.8) Sweden (2.76) Singapore (2.3)– U.S.: 6.37U.S.: 6.37– World: 43.5World: 43.5

10 Highest 2007 est. cia.gov10 Highest 2007 est. cia.gov

Which one of these is NOT like the others?

Angola 184.44Angola 184.44Sierra Leone 158.27 Sierra Leone 158.27 Afghanistan 157.43 Afghanistan 157.43 Liberia 149.73 Liberia 149.73 Niger 116.83 Niger 116.83 Somalia 113.08Somalia 113.08Mozambique 109.93Mozambique 109.93Mali 105.65 Mali 105.65 Guinea-Bissau 103.50Guinea-Bissau 103.50Chad 102.07 2007 est.Chad 102.07 2007 est.

Infant Mortality RatesInfant Mortality Rates

• List five variables that would be negatively List five variables that would be negatively correlated with infant mortalitycorrelated with infant mortality

thenthen

• List five variables that would be positively List five variables that would be positively correlated with infant mortality.correlated with infant mortality.

• Practice w/ demographics:Practice w/ demographics:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/demographer.html

Demographic Transition Model: Demographic Transition Model: One reason this class is so stimulating is our One reason this class is so stimulating is our

focus on Modelsfocus on Models

Stage One = “High stationary”What is happening with CBR and CDR?

Causes of Stage OneCauses of Stage One

• Lack of clean water Lack of clean water diseases spread diseases spread

• Inefficient sewage Inefficient sewage diseases spread diseases spread

• Food shortages Food shortages famine famine

• Death rates fluctuate wildlyDeath rates fluctuate wildly– WarsWars– DiseasesDiseases– DroughtDrought– Natural disastersNatural disasters

Stage Two = “Early Expansion”

Stage Two = Decline in death rates: WHY?

• Europe and N. America (1800s)• Improvements in water supply, sewage, food

handling (Don’t die like Elvis)• General personal hygiene (baths are now cool)• Increased female literacy• 2nd Agric. Revolution

– Higher yields by farmers agricultural practices were improved

– Mechanization of farming to produce more– Selective breeding – New system of crop rotation – Potato and maize in abundant supply

• All combine to increase survival of the children• Africa, Asia, and S. America (1950s) medical

technology revolution

Stage Three = “Late Expanding”Stage Three = “Late Expanding”• Declines in birth rate WHY?Declines in birth rate WHY?

– Drop in infant mortality rate Drop in infant mortality rate – Urban life too expensive/not enough spaceUrban life too expensive/not enough space– Gains for womenGains for women

• Increase in literacy rateIncrease in literacy rate• More access to educationMore access to education

– Postponing marriagePostponing marriage– (Contraceptives were not widely available in the (Contraceptives were not widely available in the

first half 20first half 20thth))

• MDCs moved into Stage 3 during early 20MDCs moved into Stage 3 during early 20thth • If LDCs are in Stage 3, they did so in the last If LDCs are in Stage 3, they did so in the last

20 years20 years

Why CDR fell b4 CBR???Why CDR fell b4 CBR???• Easier to convince people to stop dying Easier to convince people to stop dying

than to stop “being longitudinal”than to stop “being longitudinal”

Stage Four = Low StationaryStage Four = Low Stationary

Stage 4: “Low Stationary”Stage 4: “Low Stationary”CBR = CDRCBR = CDR• Careers for womenCareers for women

– postpones marriage/childbirthpostpones marriage/childbirth– Rise of daycareRise of daycare more expensive more expensive

• Wide access to birth control methodsWide access to birth control methods• DINKs MUCH more common lifestyle choiceDINKs MUCH more common lifestyle choice

– Travel not conducive to raising a familyTravel not conducive to raising a family– More freedom for people to enjoy life – NO KIDS TO More freedom for people to enjoy life – NO KIDS TO

MAKE THEM INSANE!!MAKE THEM INSANE!!• What begins to happen at the very end of stage four?What begins to happen at the very end of stage four?• Stage 5???Stage 5???

– CDR exceeds CBR over many yearsCDR exceeds CBR over many years– Not yet part of the DTMNot yet part of the DTM– Eastern European countriesEastern European countries

• Low birth ratesLow birth rates• Aging populationAging population• Bleak future Bleak future pollution, political instability, low pollution, political instability, low

economic growth rates, etc. economic growth rates, etc.

Stage 4

Demographic Transition Demographic Transition ModelModel

• Can a country skip stages?Can a country skip stages?• It is important to distinguish between each It is important to distinguish between each

stages’ early and late periods. Early stage stages’ early and late periods. Early stage II is very different than late stage IIII is very different than late stage II

• Can a country move backwards?Can a country move backwards?

• Have all countries gone through this Have all countries gone through this process?process?

Population Pyramids and the Population Pyramids and the DTM DTM

• You may be asked to determine which stage a You may be asked to determine which stage a country is in based on a pop. pyr. country is in based on a pop. pyr.

• Pyramid advice – how to analyze a pyramid:Pyramid advice – how to analyze a pyramid:– Look at 4 things:Look at 4 things:

• Top of the pyramidTop of the pyramid• Bottom of the pyramidBottom of the pyramid• Any bulges/indentions in the pyramid?Any bulges/indentions in the pyramid?• The symmetry of the pyramidThe symmetry of the pyramid

– Always refer to SPECIFIC POINTS on the pyramid!!!Always refer to SPECIFIC POINTS on the pyramid!!!• What does it mean if the pyramid is:What does it mean if the pyramid is:

concave?concave?bulging?bulging?rectangular?rectangular?noticeably indented?noticeably indented?asymmetrical?asymmetrical?

Does it have:

concave shape?

wide/narrow steps?

bulging?

rectangular?

noticeably indented?

asymmetrical?

more female young v. old?

Why do women outlive men today?

Why were widowers more common than widows for most of humanity’s history?

www.gendercide.org

Fact: A natural male/female ratio = 51/49

What do Ice Storms and Spring Breaks have in common?

Pregnancy in the Muslim world

• What % are female

30-39?

Tricked You!!!!!

←Don’t forget to look at how it is labeled!

Let’s Play Pyramids

• http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

FRQ Strategy FRQ Strategy

• College Board always has at least one definition College Board always has at least one definition style FRQ and you have practiced it many style FRQ and you have practiced it many times.times.

• Occasionally, they will have you analyze a Occasionally, they will have you analyze a map/pyramid/chart/data set…. While applying a map/pyramid/chart/data set…. While applying a sexy concept.sexy concept.

• For example…For example…• Impossible to predict what they will throw at Impossible to predict what they will throw at

you you BUT always make sure you refer to BUT always make sure you refer to specific points on the diagram, chart, etc. while specific points on the diagram, chart, etc. while explaining your answer. explaining your answer.

• Let’s practice…Let’s practice…

Do you see some trends?Do you see some trends?

Do not write like this:Do not write like this:

““The map clearly shows that Japan’s The map clearly shows that Japan’s population has steadily grown older and is population has steadily grown older and is in stage four of the demographic transition.”in stage four of the demographic transition.”

Write like this instead… Write like this instead… ““The map clearly shows that Japan’s The map clearly shows that Japan’s population has steadily grown older; for population has steadily grown older; for instance, the chart shows that only about instance, the chart shows that only about 7% of Japan’s population was over 65 in the 7% of Japan’s population was over 65 in the 1970’s but that percent has more than 1970’s but that percent has more than doubled to over 18% in about 2003. This is doubled to over 18% in about 2003. This is evidence of being in stage four of the evidence of being in stage four of the demographic transition.”demographic transition.”

What does it mean to be What does it mean to be overpopulated?overpopulated?

What is the difference between What is the difference between population growth and population population growth and population

change?change?

Population Change can be more Population Change can be more than just total # of peoplethan just total # of people

• GenderGender

• ReligionReligion

• AgeAge

• Ethnicity Ethnicity

• Spatial Distribution

Based upon this map, what areas are under-populated?

What’s unique about the population of: Java, What’s unique about the population of: Java, Nigeria, Gaza Strip and Uganda, Ukraine, Nigeria, Gaza Strip and Uganda, Ukraine, Japan, China, Ireland, Egypt & Canada?Japan, China, Ireland, Egypt & Canada?

In some areas of Europe there are comparatively In some areas of Europe there are comparatively dense populations found in mountainous, rugged dense populations found in mountainous, rugged

country because of proximity to coal fields.country because of proximity to coal fields.

II. Population TheoriesII. Population Theories

Thomas Malthus Thomas Malthus published his essay in published his essay in 17981798

• Malthus’ three Malthus’ three assumptions (This was assumptions (This was before the Industrial before the Industrial Revolution)Revolution)

– food grows __________food grows __________– pop grows __________pop grows __________– Britain was a closed sys.Britain was a closed sys.

• = People will eventually = People will eventually run out of foodrun out of food

Malthus had five siblings, but he Malthus had five siblings, but he only had three childrenonly had three children

• I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the system of the universe, and for the advantage of his system of the universe, and for the advantage of his creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its various operations.various operations.......Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the power of population is indefinitely greater than the power power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population, when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.

– – Malthus 1798Malthus 1798

Malthus cont. Malthus cont. • Solutions to the problem?Solutions to the problem?

– Moral restraint, but only for the poor!Moral restraint, but only for the poor!– ““Preventative checks” = lower birth ratesPreventative checks” = lower birth rates

• marrying latermarrying later• Abstinence Abstinence • Birth control (He didn’t anticipate this)Birth control (He didn’t anticipate this)• HomosexualityHomosexuality

– Positive checks = increase death ratesPositive checks = increase death rates• WarWar• DiseaseDisease• Natural DisasterNatural Disaster• Famine Famine

Poor Ben and Poor Ester Poor Ben and Poor Ester

““Observations Observations Concerning the Concerning the Increase of Mankind.”Increase of Mankind.”

• Disagreed with Disagreed with Malthus:Malthus:– Wealth restrains Wealth restrains

growth not moralitygrowth not morality– Food production stays Food production stays

ahead of population ahead of population growthgrowth

Poor EsterPoor Ester• The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The

Economics of Agrarian Change under Economics of Agrarian Change under Population PressurePopulation Pressure

• Population density creates more agricultural Population density creates more agricultural output output the number of people dictates the the number of people dictates the type of agriculture practicedtype of agriculture practiced– Humans are smartHumans are smart– They will figure out ways of producing more They will figure out ways of producing more

food on the same amount of land rather than food on the same amount of land rather than starve to death!starve to death!

Ester is Awesome!

Boserup’s model of rural land useBoserup states that population growth causes agricultural change. As population density increases so does intensification of land use. She sees population pressure as a major cause of change in land use, agricultural technology, land tenure systems, and settlement forms. The principal means of increasing agricultural output is intensification. In other words, people are clever and figure out ways to increase the supply of food; i.e., fertilizer, intertillage, crop rotation, advances in agricultural technology such as the plow, irrigation or fertilizer.

Ester the beautiful

Neo Malthusian Geeks = is Earth a closed system?

• There is a limit on population; it’s just higher than Malthus estimated

• Gap b/t resources and population in some countries is wider than Malthus assumed

• LDCs are getting relatively poorer and less access to resources

• Population growth is depleting ALL resources NOT just food production– Wars and violence will occur b/t peoples competing for

resources– Earth won’t sustain pollution of huge population numbers

World Health Threats

• Epidemiological Transition Model (Abel Omran 1971)– Stage 1 and 2

• Pestilence and Famine (Natural Checks)– Pandemics– Black Plague, Cholera, etc.

– Stage 3 and 4• Degenerative and Human Created Disease

– Cardiovascular– Cancer

– Stage 5 – Reemergence of Infection?• Evolution, Poverty, Travel, Lack of Education?

Review

FRQ Advice: When analyzing charts, make specific references about specific data on the chart/graph…

Do not make generalizations without making specific references to

data on the chart.

For example, say “the cohort of females who are 0-4 years old (13.8 million) are .2 million larger than in cohort 5-9 (13.6 million) which indicates

that the population is growing each year.

What % of men are 0-4 compared with women? 85 plus?

IV. Population MovementsIV. Population Movements

Terms:Terms:• Mobility - movementMobility - movement

• Circulation - dailyCirculation - daily• Seasonal – seasonally (duh)Seasonal – seasonally (duh)• Migration – permanent relocation diffusionMigration – permanent relocation diffusion

• Immigration – “In to”Immigration – “In to”• Emigration – “Out from”Emigration – “Out from”• Net Migration – Immigration – EmigrationNet Migration – Immigration – Emigration

• When Immigration larger = net in-migration +When Immigration larger = net in-migration +• When Emigration larger = net out-migration -When Emigration larger = net out-migration -

IV. Population MovementsIV. Population Movements

Push and Pull factors of migrationPush and Pull factors of migration

Push = Push =

Pull =Pull =

Ravenstein says there are 3 Ravenstein says there are 3 types of Push & Pull factorstypes of Push & Pull factors

Political (slavery, instability)Political (slavery, instability)

Refugees?Refugees?– International vs. internal (intranational)International vs. internal (intranational)– Difficult to define: Difficult to define:

• What is a “well founded fear of reprisal?”What is a “well founded fear of reprisal?”• Migration because of fear or economic opportunity?Migration because of fear or economic opportunity?

EconomicEconomic

Environmental Environmental

• Social mobility in USA v. Latin AmericaSocial mobility in USA v. Latin America• Counter urbanizationCounter urbanization

Ravenstein ModelRavenstein Model

Intervening Obstacles – environmental or cultural Intervening Obstacles – environmental or cultural barriers to migrationbarriers to migration

• Name some:Name some:


Distance:Distance:• Most migration is short-distance/internal Most migration is short-distance/internal

migrationmigration• Permanent movement within same countryPermanent movement within same country

• Interregional or Intraregional (rural to urban or urban to Interregional or Intraregional (rural to urban or urban to suburban or reurbanization)suburban or reurbanization)

• Distance DecayDistance Decay• Why?Why?


Distance:Distance:• Long-distance migration tends toward economic Long-distance migration tends toward economic

centerscenters• International:International:

• Voluntary – for economic opportunityVoluntary – for economic opportunity• Forced – compelled for political or cultural reasonsForced – compelled for political or cultural reasons


Characteristics of Migrants:Characteristics of Migrants:

• Mostly Male for long-distances (Gender)

• Mostly single adults (Family Status)– Why?

• 21st Century immigration doesn’t always fit this pattern.– Why?

Zelinsky Migration Transition Model

• Jives with Demographic Transition Model– Changes in migration patterns result from social and economic changes

• Stage 1 – High Daily/Seasonal Mobility– Why?

• Stage 2 - High International Migration; High Rural to Urban Interregional Migration– Why?

• Stage 3 and 4 – Low International Immigration, destination for Stage 2 Immigrants; Intraregional migration (cities to suburbs)– Why?

Global PatternsGlobal Patterns

Out of LDC’s – Asia, Latin America, AfricaOut of LDC’s – Asia, Latin America, Africa

In to MDC’s – North America, Europe, In to MDC’s – North America, Europe, OceaniaOceania

• 3 largest flows:3 largest flows:– Asia to EuropeAsia to Europe– Asia to N. AmericaAsia to N. America– L. America to N. AmericaL. America to N. America

US Immigration PatternsUS Immigration Patterns

• USA is 3rd most populous state, and is mostly made up of descendants of immigrants – 75 million from 1820 to 2010

• 3 Era’s:• Colonial• Mid 19c.• 1970’s to today

• Why?


• Colonial Period (1607 – 1840)• Sources:

• Forced migration of African slaves (650K)• Voluntary Migration from Great Britain (2 million)

• 19/20c.• Sources:

• 40 million of the 65 million European immigrants since Columbus have gone to USA

• 7.2 million – Germany; 5.4 million – Italy; 5.3 million – UK; 4.8 million – Ireland; 4.1 million – Russia


• 1970’s to today:• A lull during 30’s and 40’s

• Why?

• By 1970’s immigrant numbers were growing large again

• Sources:• Asia (China, India, Philippines)• Latin America (now 500K per year)

• Mexico• 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act

• Today many immigrants face less economic opportunity than in previous era’s.

• Why?

Impact of Immigration on USImpact of Immigration on US

• European Legacy– Escape Valve of 19c. Europe– Stage 4 20c. Europe no longer source of

immigrants

• Cultural Diffusion– Language– Religion– Culture

• Imperialism

Unauthorized ImmigrationUnauthorized Immigration• While # of immigrants to US today is higher than ever, While # of immigrants to US today is higher than ever,

there are still more who desire to come to US than are there are still more who desire to come to US than are allowed.allowed.

• Result:Result:• Unauthorized/undocumented immigration (illegal)Unauthorized/undocumented immigration (illegal)

• 11.9 million unauthorized immigrants live in US today11.9 million unauthorized immigrants live in US today• 500K more come every year500K more come every year• 59% from Mexico59% from Mexico• 22% from other Latin American Countries22% from other Latin American Countries• 12% from Asia12% from Asia

• In 2008:In 2008:• 6.3 million males6.3 million males• 4.1 million females4.1 million females• 1.5 million children (and another 4 million children born in US to 1.5 million children (and another 4 million children born in US to

unauthorized immigrant parents)unauthorized immigrant parents)

Unauthorized ImmigrationUnauthorized Immigration• Why?Why?

• 8.3 million are employed, mostly in agriculture, 8.3 million are employed, mostly in agriculture, construction, hospitalityconstruction, hospitality

• How?How?

• 1,951 mile long border1,951 mile long border• Few guards outside urban centersFew guards outside urban centers• Mostly rural borderMostly rural border• Fence only covers ¼ of borderFence only covers ¼ of border

• Controversy – Value of immigrants vs. security (and Controversy – Value of immigrants vs. security (and racism)racism)

Destinations in US

• CA and NYC Metro (1/5 and 1/6 respectively)• CA is home to ¼ of unauthorized immigrants

• Chain migration in other areas

• Mostly South and West (job growth)– Also Midwest – factory jobs

Why do Migrants Face Why do Migrants Face Obstacles?Obstacles?

• In past – EnvironmentalIn past – Environmental

• Today – CulturalToday – Cultural– Getting EntryGetting Entry– XenophobiaXenophobia


• Getting Entry is Obstructed by Policies:Getting Entry is Obstructed by Policies:– USA: Quota SystemUSA: Quota System

• Until 1921 – No restrictionsUntil 1921 – No restrictions• Quota Act and National Origins act set the # of Quota Act and National Origins act set the # of

immigrants allowed per year, per country at 2% of immigrants allowed per year, per country at 2% of the immigrant population as of the 1910 Censusthe immigrant population as of the 1910 Census

• Immigration Act of 1965 – replaced national quotas Immigration Act of 1965 – replaced national quotas with hemisphere quotas (170K from East, 120K from with hemisphere quotas (170K from East, 120K from West)West)

• 1978 – Global Quota of 290K, 20K per country1978 – Global Quota of 290K, 20K per country• Today – 620K, 7% per nation, numerous exceptions Today – 620K, 7% per nation, numerous exceptions

made for skilled labor and family members of made for skilled labor and family members of residentsresidents


• Europe and the Middle East: Guest WorkersEurope and the Middle East: Guest Workers– Temporary migrant visas issuedTemporary migrant visas issued– In Europe migrants take mostly low income In Europe migrants take mostly low income

jobs that go unfilled by European workersjobs that go unfilled by European workers– Receive minimum wage, union contracts, Receive minimum wage, union contracts,

financial supportfinancial support– Migrants send much of their earnings home to Migrants send much of their earnings home to

familiesfamilies– Many stay indefinitelyMany stay indefinitely– Who benefits?Who benefits?

RefugeesRefugees• Economic migrants are usually not admitted Economic migrants are usually not admitted

without special skills or if they have another without special skills or if they have another immediate family member already living in host immediate family member already living in host nation.nation.

• Refugees, however, get special priority because Refugees, however, get special priority because of their humanitarian needof their humanitarian need

• Telling the difference is sometimes difficult, and Telling the difference is sometimes difficult, and sometimes controversial.sometimes controversial.– Why?Why?

Major movements in the 20th Major movements in the 20th Which are primarily Pushed or PulledWhich are primarily Pushed or Pulled

1.1. East Asia, India, and Latin America (Mexico) TO the U.S. East Asia, India, and Latin America (Mexico) TO the U.S. (South/East. Europeans (South/East. Europeans U.S. early 20 U.S. early 20thth))

2.2. Russians TO ELLBUMGAATUTKK (Russians TO ELLBUMGAATUTKK (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan)countries during Cold Warcountries during Cold War

3.3. Kosovars TO surrounding countries during ethnic Kosovars TO surrounding countries during ethnic cleansing of Serbiacleansing of Serbia

4.4. White South Africans TO United States and Western White South Africans TO United States and Western Europe in post-apartheid S. AfricaEurope in post-apartheid S. Africa

5.5. Americans from Rustbelt TO SunbeltAmericans from Rustbelt TO Sunbelt6.6. Rwandans from Rwanda TO surrounding countriesRwandans from Rwanda TO surrounding countries

7. Cuban refugees during 7. Cuban refugees during Castro’s coupCastro’s coup

• 15 Cubans Who Got to Fla. Bridge Sent Home15 Cubans Who Got to Fla. Bridge Sent Home

• MIAMIMIAMIFifteen Cubans who fled their homeland and landed on Fifteen Cubans who fled their homeland and landed on an abandoned bridge piling in the Florida Keys were an abandoned bridge piling in the Florida Keys were returned to their homeland Monday after U.S. officials returned to their homeland Monday after U.S. officials concluded that the structure did not constitute dry concluded that the structure did not constitute dry land. land.

Under the U.S. government's "wet-foot, dry-foot" Under the U.S. government's "wet-foot, dry-foot" policy, Cubans who reach dry land in the United States policy, Cubans who reach dry land in the United States are usually allowed to remain in this country, while are usually allowed to remain in this country, while those caught at sea are sent back. those caught at sea are sent back.

More Migrations…More Migrations…8. Vietnam's "boat people“ http://www.boatpeople.org/8. Vietnam's "boat people“ http://www.boatpeople.org/

Read “A TRUE STORY” and “Boat People”Read “A TRUE STORY” and “Boat People”9. Jews from homes in U.S.S.R. to Israel and the U.S. in the 9. Jews from homes in U.S.S.R. to Israel and the U.S. in the

1990s1990s10. Muslims in India to Pakistan and Bangladesh after the 10. Muslims in India to Pakistan and Bangladesh after the

partition of Indiapartition of India11. Refugees from Sudan pouring into Ethiopia, Chad, and 11. Refugees from Sudan pouring into Ethiopia, Chad, and

KenyaKenya12. Eastern Europeans and Muslims from their homes TO 12. Eastern Europeans and Muslims from their homes TO

Western EuropeWestern Europe13. Workers in western China migrating TO Eastern China 13. Workers in western China migrating TO Eastern China

and major Pacific Rim citiesand major Pacific Rim cities14. African Americans from South to North after Civil War14. African Americans from South to North after Civil War15. Ugandans from Uganda to neighboring African 15. Ugandans from Uganda to neighboring African

countriescountries

15. Uganda – Idi Amin15. Uganda – Idi Amin

300,000/12 300,000/12 million killed million killed by him by him

Interregional MigrationInterregional Migration• USA:USA:

– Colonial Period (1790)Colonial Period (1790)

• Center of Population – Chestertown, MarylandCenter of Population – Chestertown, Maryland

• Why?Why?

– Early Settlement (to 1840)Early Settlement (to 1840)

• Center of Population – Weston, West VirginiaCenter of Population – Weston, West Virginia

• Why?Why?

– California, here I come! (to 1890)California, here I come! (to 1890)

• Center of Population – Greensburg, IndianaCenter of Population – Greensburg, Indiana

• Why?Why?

– Great Plains (to 1940)Great Plains (to 1940)

• Center of Population – still IndianaCenter of Population – still Indiana

• Why?Why?

– Go South!Go South!

• Center of Population – Central MissouriCenter of Population – Central Missouri

• Why?Why?

Interregional MigrationInterregional Migration• Russia:Russia:

– Soviet Era – settlement in SiberiaSoviet Era – settlement in Siberia

• Why?Why?

– Today – leaving SiberiaToday – leaving Siberia

• Why?Why?

• Brazil – settling the interior – BrasiliaBrazil – settling the interior – Brasilia

– Barriers?Barriers?

– Why?Why?

• Indonesia – get out of JavaIndonesia – get out of Java

– Push/Pull?Push/Pull?

– Why?Why?

• Europe – go West (and North), Young ManEurope – go West (and North), Young Man

– Why?Why?

• India – stay putIndia – stay put– Stay out of AssameStay out of Assame

• Why?Why?

Intraregional MigrationIntraregional Migration• Rural to Urban: Most common intraregional migration patternRural to Urban: Most common intraregional migration pattern

– E.g. – USA 5% urban in 1800 to 50% by 1920 to 75% todayE.g. – USA 5% urban in 1800 to 50% by 1920 to 75% today– Asia – in last 30 years, similar pattern.Asia – in last 30 years, similar pattern.– Why?Why?

• Urban to Suburban: MDC’s onlyUrban to Suburban: MDC’s only– Urban sprawl – people leave cities to move to suburbsUrban sprawl – people leave cities to move to suburbs– Why?Why?

• Counterunrbanization: mostly MDC’sCounterunrbanization: mostly MDC’s– Not to return to farmsNot to return to farms– Why?Why?

V. The Gravity ModelV. The Gravity Model

Used to predict the interaction between any Used to predict the interaction between any two hamlet/village/town/city/megalopolis two hamlet/village/town/city/megalopolis

(Population city A)(Population city B)(Population city A)(Population city B)

Distance squaredDistance squared

Why is the distance in the denominator Why is the distance in the denominator squared?squared?

The Gravity Model (another dumb model)

Demographers are taking a Hard Science formula and trying to apply it to the Soft

Sciences

How is the coefficient found?

• It is defined as the sum of the products of the standard scores of the two measures divided by the degrees of freedom:

• Note that this formula is very simple

The Gravity Model

(Population city A)(Population city B)

Distance squared

(10 million)(1 million)/10 miles squared

Compared to

(10 million)(1 million)/100 miles squared

Why is the distance in the denominator squared?

Assuming B, C, and D have = pop., which two cities have the greatest/least interaction?

What holiday is the

most traveled

day of the year? Why?

It’s magic!

It is not necessary for you to know how these correlation coefficients are created!

Just know it is really GEO!

Review

FRQ Advice: When analyzing charts, make specific references about specific data on the chart/graph…

Do not make generalizations without making specific references to data on the chart.

For example, say “the cohort of females who are 0-4 years old are #? more than in cohort 5-9 which indicates that the population is growing each year.

What % of men are 0-4 compared with women? 85 plus?

unit 2: demography (population studies) i. population statistics your first question should always...

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