union pacific systemstrong cash generation twelve month period ending december 31 ($ in millions)...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Jack Koraleski, CEO
2
2011 2012 2013
$1.99 $2.19
$2.55 Best-Ever Quarter
Union Pacific Achieves Record 2013 Results
+16%
Earnings Per Share Fourth Quarter
Positives • All-Time Record Quarter
and Full Year Financial Results
• Quarterly Records – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Earnings
• Franchise Diversity
Challenges • Coal Volumes • Winter Weather
3
Fourth Quarter 2013 Marketing & Sales Review January 23, 2014 Eric Butler, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales
4
Industrial Products
Automotive
Coal
Fourth Quarter 2013 Recap
Volume ARC Freight Revenue
Freight Revenue Performance (Year-Over-Year Change)
Volume Growth
+2%
+5.5% +7.5%
Freight Revenue Mix
Agricultural 18%
Autos 10%
Chemicals 16%
Coal 19%
Industrial 18%
Intermodal 19%
Chemicals
TOTAL
+2%
+10%
-1%
-10%
+9%
+2%
+13% Agricultural
Intermodal
5
Agricultural Products Revenue $937M (+19%) Volume 243K (+13%) ARC $3,846 (+5%)
Grain Products
33%
Grain 44%
Food & Refrigerated
23%
Volume Mix
76.1 80.8
Grain Products*
2012 2013
66.2 93.2
Grain*
2012 2013
+41%
58.7 56.6
Food & Refrigerated*
2012 2013
*Volume in thousands of carloads and excludes equipment shipments
+6%
-4%
Quarterly Drivers • Record Corn Production • Grain Exports • Recovery of Ethanol Margins
and Production
6
Automotive Revenue $544M (+17%) Volume 205K (+10%) ARC $2,653 (+7%)
Finished Vehicles
58%
Volume Mix 111.0
118.6
Finished Vehicles*
2012 2013
+7%
76.5 86.3
Auto Parts*
2012 2013
+13%
*Volume in thousands of carloads
Quarterly Drivers • Continued Replacement of
Aging Vehicles • Demand for Pickup Trucks
and Crossovers
Auto Parts 42%
7
Chemicals Revenue $855M (+3%) Volume 263K (-1%) ARC $3,255 (+3%)
Quarterly Drivers • Improved Industrial Chemicals
Markets • Strength in Petroleum Products • Spreads Drive Crude Flows
**Volume in thousands of carloads and excludes equipment shipments * Beginning in 2013, Fertilizer includes Phos Rock and Sulfur; Soda Ash includes
Sodium Products; Crude Oil separated from Petroleum & LPG
Volume Mix*
Plastics 23%
Industrial Chemicals
24%
Petrol. & LP Gas
15% Fertilizer
15% Soda Ash 11%
Crude Oil 12%
36.4 39.1
Petroleum & LP Gas**
2012 2013
52.0 54.9
Industrial Chemicals**
2012 2013
+6%
41.3 32.1
Crude Oil**
2012 2013
+7%
-22%
8
Coal Revenue $985M (-1%) Volume 419K (-10%) ARC $2,352 (+10%)
Quarterly Drivers • Contract Loss • Wyoming Blizzard impacts PRB • Growth from Other Regions
40.6 35.7
Southern Powder River Basin*
2012 2013
*Tons in millions
7.9 7.1
Colorado/Utah*
2012 2013
-12%
-10%
Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
Other 13%
1Q 4Q
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
2012
2Q 3Q
2013 (19%) Flat
(7%)
WY Blizzard
2014
(10%)
9
Industrial Products Revenue $954M (+14%) Volume 305K (+9%) ARC $3,134 (+5%)
Quarterly Drivers • Drilling Activity – Frac Sand • Growth in Iron Ore and Energy
Related Metals • Housing Start Growth
Paper 9%
Gov’t/Waste 13%
Metals 19%
Volume Mix*
Minerals/ Consumer
21%
Construction 29%
Lumber 9%
**Volume in thousands of carloads *Beginning in 3rd Quarter 2013, Shipments of Salt, Carbon Black, Rubber and Magnesium Chloride are reported under Gov’t / Waste.
51.2 57.0
Metals **
2012 2013
50.2 64.3
Non-Metallic Minerals**
2012 2013
+28%
26.8 28.4
Lumber**
2012 2013
+11%
+6%
10
Intermodal Revenue $1,022M (Flat) Volume 845K (+2%) ARC $1,208 (-2%)
Quarterly Drivers • Fuel Surcharge & Int’l Revenue
Empties Impact ARC • Port Transloading Impacts
International • Highway Conversions Drive
Domestic Growth
International 51%
Domestic 49%
Volume Mix 436.1
431.6
International*
2012 2013
-1%
*Volume in thousands of units
394.2 413.6
Domestic*
2012 2013
+5%
11
2014 Volume Outlook
Agricultural Products + Record 2013 Crop + Food and Refrigerated ? Weather / 2014 Crop Automotive + Auto Sales Growth Chemicals + Most Markets Remain Solid ? Crude Oil Spreads Coal + Export Demand - Legacy Contract loss ? Weather Industrial Products + Shale Drilling - Frac Sand + Housing & Construction Intermodal + Domestic Highway Conversions + International
12
Fourth Quarter 2013 Operations Review January 23, 2014
Lance Fritz, Executive VP - Operations
13
Operating Foundation, Safety Focus Full Year Employee
(Reportable Personal Injury Incidents Per 200,000 Employee-Hours)
Rail Equipment (Reportable Derailment Incidents
Per Million Train Miles)
Public (Crossing Accidents Per Million Train Miles)
2010 2011 2012 2013
1.37 1.15
1.01 1.05
Good
2010 2011 2012 2013
2.98 3.28 3.21 3.24
Good
2010 2011 2012 2013
2.32
2.11
2.38 2.22
Good -7% • Continue to Strengthen Our
Safety Culture
• Infrastructure Investment & Focus on Human Factor Incidents
• Grade Crossing Improvement Process
+4%
All-Time Record
All-Time Record
All-Time Record
+1%
14
94.2 94.2 95.2 95.5 94.2 94.2 95.2
2010 2011 2012 2013
90.4 87.9 89.7 85.7
Network Performance Fourth Quarter • Weather Interruptions
– Wyoming Blizzard – Widespread Winter
Conditions
• Agility & Resiliency Demonstrated with Resources & Service Plan • Strategic Investments &
Surge Resources Aid in Recovery • Positioned for Growth
2010 2011 2012 2013
26.5 25.6
26.7 25.8
Velocity (as Reported to the AAR)
Service Delivery* and IS&P Industry Spot & Pull % Good
* Includes early deliveries
**
** Fourth quarter record
-3%
Good
-4%
15
Network Productivity Fourth Quarter
Locomotive Productivity (Gross Ton Miles per HP Day)
2010 2011 2012 2013
118 121
118 120 Good +2%
Nbr of Cars Switched
Y&L Employee Days
Cars Switched** (per employee day)
+4%
+1.5%
+2.5%
Agility & Resource Readiness
* Best-ever quarterly record ** Best-ever fourth quarter record
Manifest Growth Impact (vs 4Q 2012)
Train Size Performance (vs 4Q 2012)
-2%
Flat
+1%
+1%
+2% Grain*
Auto**
Manifest**
Intermodal
Coal
• Leveraged Volume Growth in Every Region
• Efficiently Handled Ramp-up in Grain Volumes
• New Service Launches
16
Capital Investments Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC
$3.6B 2013 Capital Spend* (in Millions)
Infrastructure Replacement
$1,765
Locomotives/ Equipment
$585
Capacity/ Commercial
Facilities $640
Technology/ Other $160
PTC $420
* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.
• Larger than 2013 • Capacity Spending
– Southern Region – Network Strategies
• Locomotives & Equipment • PTC Spending
2014 Capital Plan
2010 2011 2012 2013
660 590
409 304
Slow Order Miles (Fourth Quarter)
Good
All-Time Qtrly
Record
-26%
17
Setting the Course for 2014 Safety, Service, and Value
• Drive Record Safety Results
• Leverage Growth Opportunities
• Realize Productivity with Innovation
• Create Value with Excellent Service
• Increase Returns for Shareholders
18
Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Review January 23, 2014
Rob Knight, CFO
19
Fourth Quarter Income Statement In Millions (except EPS)
Operating Revenues $5,630 $5,250 7 Operating Expenses 3,657 3,525 4 Operating Income 1,973 1,725 14 Other Income 37 43 (14) Interest Expense (127) (128) (1) Income Taxes (709) (604) 17 Net Income $1,174 $1,036 13 Weighted Average Diluted Shares 460.7 472.0 (2)
Diluted EPS $2.55 $2.19 16
2013 2012 %
20
Freight Revenue Fourth Quarter (In Millions)
2012
Volume & Mix
Core Price
Fuel Surcharge
2013
+4%
+3.5% $5,297
$4,931
+7.5%
Flat
21
2.0%
0.7% (0.1%) (0.4%) 0.3%
4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5%
2013 Core Pricing Trends
Core Pricing Gains
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
Rail Cost Escalator (All-LF) (excludes Fuel)
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13
• Solid Core Pricing in 2013
• Core Pricing Gains Impacted by Lower Coal Volumes
• Inflation Escalators Moderating
• 2014 Legacy “Light”
• Pricing for Reinvestibility
1Q14
22
$1,135 $1,210
Compensation & Benefits Expense Fourth Quarter 2013 $1,210M, +7%
2012
Compensation & Benefits (in Millions)
2013
46,067 45,951
2012
Workforce Levels (Quarterly Average)
2013
Flat
• Inflation Costs • Volume-Related Expenses • Weather & Business Mix • $20M Payroll Tax Refund
in 2012 • Growth in TE&Y
Employees offset by Lower Capital Workforce
2014 Outlook: • Smaller Inflation Hurdle
+7%
23
Fuel Expense Fourth Quarter 2013 $905M, -2%
• Average Diesel Fuel Price down 4%
$3.25 $3.11
Average Fuel Price (Per Gallon Consumed)
2012 2013
238,898 244,631
2012
Gross Ton-Miles (in Millions)
2013
+2%
-4%
• GTMs up 2% compared to 2012
• Consumption Rate Increase of 1%
24
$533 $585
Fourth Quarter 2013 Expense Review In Millions
2012
Purchased Services & Materials
2013
• Increased Costs for: – Locomotive & Freight Car
Repairs – Joint Facility Maintenance – Logistics Management Fees
+10%
$453 $458 • Higher Asset Base
• 2013 Equipment Rate Study
2012
Depreciation
2013
+1%
2014 Outlook (Depreciation): • 6 - 7% y-o-y increase • PTC investment impact
25
Fourth Quarter 2013 Expense Review (cont) In Millions
• Container Costs – Contract Arrangement
• Higher Freight Car Rental Expense
$302 $311
2012
Equipment & Other Rents
2013
+3%
• Higher Property Tax Expense • Increased Freight and
Equipment Damage Costs • Lower Personal Injury Expense
$182 $188
2012
Other
2013
+3%
2014 Outlook (Other): • 5 - 10% y-o-y increase
26
Operating Ratio Performance
2010 2011 2012 2013
70.2
68.3 67.1
65.0
Fourth Quarter (Percent)
2010 2011 2012 2013
70.6 70.7
67.8 66.1
Full Year (Percent)
4th Qtr Record
All-Time Annual Record
-2.1 pts
-1.7 pts
Sub-65 Full Year Operating Ratio Goal before 2017
27
Full Year Income Statement In Millions (except EPS)
Operating Revenues $21,963 $20,926 5 Operating Expenses 14,517 14,181 2 Operating Income 7,446 6,745 10 Other Income 128 108 19 Interest Expense (526) (535) (2) Income Taxes (2,660) (2,375) 12 Net Income $4,388 $3,943 11 Weighted Average Diluted Shares 465.8 476.5 (2)
Diluted EPS $9.42 $8.27 14
2013 2012 %
28
Strong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions)
Cash From Operations
* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
Free Cash Flow* (After Dividends)
• Record Cash from Ops
• Record Free Cash Flow after Dividends
• Bonus Depreciation Impact – 2013: Net Favorable $35M – 2014: Unfavorable ($400)M
2011 2012 2013
$1,917 $1,382
$2,085
2011 2012 2013
$5,873 $6,161 $6,823 +11%
Net Bonus Depreciation Impact
All-Time Annual Record
All-Time Annual Record
29
New Locomotive Purchases/Leases
Investments and Returns
2011 2012 2013
$3.2
$3.7 $3.6
Total Capital Spending* (In Billions)
Base Capital
2011 2012 2013
12.4
14.0 14.7
Return on Invested Capital** (Percent)
Positive Train Control
* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital. ** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
Best- Ever
Record
30
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
60 60 60 69 69 69
79 79
Delivering Value to Shareholders
Declared Dividend Per Share (cents)
+14.5%
2012 2013
+15%
Quarterly Share Repurchases ($ In Millions)
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
$433 $415 $378 $248
$394 $463
$575
$786
2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2012
• Performance Drives Dividend Increases – Declared Dividend Increase of
14.5% in 2013 – Full Year 2013 Declared
Dividends grew 19% vs. 2012 – Achieved Payout Ratio of 31.5%
• Opportunistic Share Repurchases – 4Q 2013 = $786 Million – Full Year 2013 = $2.2 Billion – New 60M Share Repurchase
Authorization January 1, 2014 (4-year program) 2013
31
$12,753 $12,772 $12,804 40.7% 39.1%
37.6% ~40%
Strong Financial Position As of December 31 ($ In Millions)
* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.
Adjusted Debt to Capital
Total Debt* (Adjusted)
2011 2012 2014E
• Strong Balance Sheet
• Investment Grade Credit Ratings
• 2013 Balance Sheet Debt increase of $600 Million
• Targeting 40% Debt-to-Cap and 1.5 times Debt-to-EBITDA at year-end 2014
• January 2014 Debt Issuance of $1 Billion
2013
Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA* 1.7
1.5 1.4 ~1.5
2011 2012 2014E 2013
32
A Look Ahead to 2014
• FY and 1Q Volume Growth Assuming an Improving Economy
• Record Earnings & Operating Ratio
• Pricing for Reinvestibility
• Leverage Diverse Franchise
• Increasing Shareholder Returns
33
Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Jack Koraleski, CEO
34
Union Pacific’s Prospects Going Forward
• Well Positioned for Economic Growth
• Unrelenting Focus on Safety
• Excellent Service – Supports Pricing
Initiatives – Improves Asset Utilization
• Capital Investment Strategy
• Power and Potential of the UP Franchise
35
Cautionary Information This press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not
statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and its ability to meet its customers transportation requirements, operate safely, adequately serve its customers and improve financial performance and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.
Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).
Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
36
Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Question & Answer Session