union pacific systemstrong cash generation twelve month period ending december 31 ($ in millions)...

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1 Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Jack Koraleski, CEO 2 2011 2012 2013 $1.99 $2.19 $2.55 Best-Ever Quarter Union Pacific Achieves Record 2013 Results +16% Earnings Per Share Fourth Quarter Positives All-Time Record Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Quarterly Records Operating Revenue Operating Income Earnings Franchise Diversity Challenges Coal Volumes Winter Weather

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Page 1: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

1

Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Jack Koraleski, CEO

2

2011 2012 2013

$1.99 $2.19

$2.55 Best-Ever Quarter

Union Pacific Achieves Record 2013 Results

+16%

Earnings Per Share Fourth Quarter

Positives • All-Time Record Quarter

and Full Year Financial Results

• Quarterly Records – Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Earnings

• Franchise Diversity

Challenges • Coal Volumes • Winter Weather

Page 2: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

3

Fourth Quarter 2013 Marketing & Sales Review January 23, 2014 Eric Butler, Executive VP – Marketing & Sales

4

Industrial Products

Automotive

Coal

Fourth Quarter 2013 Recap

Volume ARC Freight Revenue

Freight Revenue Performance (Year-Over-Year Change)

Volume Growth

+2%

+5.5% +7.5%

Freight Revenue Mix

Agricultural 18%

Autos 10%

Chemicals 16%

Coal 19%

Industrial 18%

Intermodal 19%

Chemicals

TOTAL

+2%

+10%

-1%

-10%

+9%

+2%

+13% Agricultural

Intermodal

Page 3: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

5

Agricultural Products Revenue $937M (+19%) Volume 243K (+13%) ARC $3,846 (+5%)

Grain Products

33%

Grain 44%

Food & Refrigerated

23%

Volume Mix

76.1 80.8

Grain Products*

2012 2013

66.2 93.2

Grain*

2012 2013

+41%

58.7 56.6

Food & Refrigerated*

2012 2013

*Volume in thousands of carloads and excludes equipment shipments

+6%

-4%

Quarterly Drivers • Record Corn Production • Grain Exports • Recovery of Ethanol Margins

and Production

6

Automotive Revenue $544M (+17%) Volume 205K (+10%) ARC $2,653 (+7%)

Finished Vehicles

58%

Volume Mix 111.0

118.6

Finished Vehicles*

2012 2013

+7%

76.5 86.3

Auto Parts*

2012 2013

+13%

*Volume in thousands of carloads

Quarterly Drivers • Continued Replacement of

Aging Vehicles • Demand for Pickup Trucks

and Crossovers

Auto Parts 42%

Page 4: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

7

Chemicals Revenue $855M (+3%) Volume 263K (-1%) ARC $3,255 (+3%)

Quarterly Drivers • Improved Industrial Chemicals

Markets • Strength in Petroleum Products • Spreads Drive Crude Flows

**Volume in thousands of carloads and excludes equipment shipments * Beginning in 2013, Fertilizer includes Phos Rock and Sulfur; Soda Ash includes

Sodium Products; Crude Oil separated from Petroleum & LPG

Volume Mix*

Plastics 23%

Industrial Chemicals

24%

Petrol. & LP Gas

15% Fertilizer

15% Soda Ash 11%

Crude Oil 12%

36.4 39.1

Petroleum & LP Gas**

2012 2013

52.0 54.9

Industrial Chemicals**

2012 2013

+6%

41.3 32.1

Crude Oil**

2012 2013

+7%

-22%

8

Coal Revenue $985M (-1%) Volume 419K (-10%) ARC $2,352 (+10%)

Quarterly Drivers • Contract Loss • Wyoming Blizzard impacts PRB • Growth from Other Regions

40.6 35.7

Southern Powder River Basin*

2012 2013

*Tons in millions

7.9 7.1

Colorado/Utah*

2012 2013

-12%

-10%

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

1Q 4Q

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2012

2Q 3Q

2013 (19%) Flat

(7%)

WY Blizzard

2014

(10%)

Page 5: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

9

Industrial Products Revenue $954M (+14%) Volume 305K (+9%) ARC $3,134 (+5%)

Quarterly Drivers • Drilling Activity – Frac Sand • Growth in Iron Ore and Energy

Related Metals • Housing Start Growth

Paper 9%

Gov’t/Waste 13%

Metals 19%

Volume Mix*

Minerals/ Consumer

21%

Construction 29%

Lumber 9%

**Volume in thousands of carloads *Beginning in 3rd Quarter 2013, Shipments of Salt, Carbon Black, Rubber and Magnesium Chloride are reported under Gov’t / Waste.

51.2 57.0

Metals **

2012 2013

50.2 64.3

Non-Metallic Minerals**

2012 2013

+28%

26.8 28.4

Lumber**

2012 2013

+11%

+6%

10

Intermodal Revenue $1,022M (Flat) Volume 845K (+2%) ARC $1,208 (-2%)

Quarterly Drivers • Fuel Surcharge & Int’l Revenue

Empties Impact ARC • Port Transloading Impacts

International • Highway Conversions Drive

Domestic Growth

International 51%

Domestic 49%

Volume Mix 436.1

431.6

International*

2012 2013

-1%

*Volume in thousands of units

394.2 413.6

Domestic*

2012 2013

+5%

Page 6: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

11

2014 Volume Outlook

Agricultural Products + Record 2013 Crop + Food and Refrigerated ? Weather / 2014 Crop Automotive + Auto Sales Growth Chemicals + Most Markets Remain Solid ? Crude Oil Spreads Coal + Export Demand - Legacy Contract loss ? Weather Industrial Products + Shale Drilling - Frac Sand + Housing & Construction Intermodal + Domestic Highway Conversions + International

12

Fourth Quarter 2013 Operations Review January 23, 2014

Lance Fritz, Executive VP - Operations

Page 7: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

13

Operating Foundation, Safety Focus Full Year Employee

(Reportable Personal Injury Incidents Per 200,000 Employee-Hours)

Rail Equipment (Reportable Derailment Incidents

Per Million Train Miles)

Public (Crossing Accidents Per Million Train Miles)

2010 2011 2012 2013

1.37 1.15

1.01 1.05

Good

2010 2011 2012 2013

2.98 3.28 3.21 3.24

Good

2010 2011 2012 2013

2.32

2.11

2.38 2.22

Good -7% • Continue to Strengthen Our

Safety Culture

• Infrastructure Investment & Focus on Human Factor Incidents

• Grade Crossing Improvement Process

+4%

All-Time Record

All-Time Record

All-Time Record

+1%

14

94.2 94.2 95.2 95.5 94.2 94.2 95.2

2010 2011 2012 2013

90.4 87.9 89.7 85.7

Network Performance Fourth Quarter • Weather Interruptions

– Wyoming Blizzard – Widespread Winter

Conditions

• Agility & Resiliency Demonstrated with Resources & Service Plan • Strategic Investments &

Surge Resources Aid in Recovery • Positioned for Growth

2010 2011 2012 2013

26.5 25.6

26.7 25.8

Velocity (as Reported to the AAR)

Service Delivery* and IS&P Industry Spot & Pull % Good

* Includes early deliveries

**

** Fourth quarter record

-3%

Good

-4%

Page 8: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

15

Network Productivity Fourth Quarter

Locomotive Productivity (Gross Ton Miles per HP Day)

2010 2011 2012 2013

118 121

118 120 Good +2%

Nbr of Cars Switched

Y&L Employee Days

Cars Switched** (per employee day)

+4%

+1.5%

+2.5%

Agility & Resource Readiness

* Best-ever quarterly record ** Best-ever fourth quarter record

Manifest Growth Impact (vs 4Q 2012)

Train Size Performance (vs 4Q 2012)

-2%

Flat

+1%

+1%

+2% Grain*

Auto**

Manifest**

Intermodal

Coal

• Leveraged Volume Growth in Every Region

• Efficiently Handled Ramp-up in Grain Volumes

• New Service Launches

16

Capital Investments Replacement, Growth & Productivity, and PTC

$3.6B 2013 Capital Spend* (in Millions)

Infrastructure Replacement

$1,765

Locomotives/ Equipment

$585

Capacity/ Commercial

Facilities $640

Technology/ Other $160

PTC $420

* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.

• Larger than 2013 • Capacity Spending

– Southern Region – Network Strategies

• Locomotives & Equipment • PTC Spending

2014 Capital Plan

2010 2011 2012 2013

660 590

409 304

Slow Order Miles (Fourth Quarter)

Good

All-Time Qtrly

Record

-26%

Page 9: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

17

Setting the Course for 2014 Safety, Service, and Value

• Drive Record Safety Results

• Leverage Growth Opportunities

• Realize Productivity with Innovation

• Create Value with Excellent Service

• Increase Returns for Shareholders

18

Fourth Quarter 2013 Financial Review January 23, 2014

Rob Knight, CFO

Page 10: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

19

Fourth Quarter Income Statement In Millions (except EPS)

Operating Revenues $5,630 $5,250 7 Operating Expenses 3,657 3,525 4 Operating Income 1,973 1,725 14 Other Income 37 43 (14) Interest Expense (127) (128) (1) Income Taxes (709) (604) 17 Net Income $1,174 $1,036 13 Weighted Average Diluted Shares 460.7 472.0 (2)

Diluted EPS $2.55 $2.19 16

2013 2012 %

20

Freight Revenue Fourth Quarter (In Millions)

2012

Volume & Mix

Core Price

Fuel Surcharge

2013

+4%

+3.5% $5,297

$4,931

+7.5%

Flat

Page 11: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

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2.0%

0.7% (0.1%) (0.4%) 0.3%

4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.5%

2013 Core Pricing Trends

Core Pricing Gains

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

Rail Cost Escalator (All-LF) (excludes Fuel)

1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13

• Solid Core Pricing in 2013

• Core Pricing Gains Impacted by Lower Coal Volumes

• Inflation Escalators Moderating

• 2014 Legacy “Light”

• Pricing for Reinvestibility

1Q14

22

$1,135 $1,210

Compensation & Benefits Expense Fourth Quarter 2013 $1,210M, +7%

2012

Compensation & Benefits (in Millions)

2013

46,067 45,951

2012

Workforce Levels (Quarterly Average)

2013

Flat

• Inflation Costs • Volume-Related Expenses • Weather & Business Mix • $20M Payroll Tax Refund

in 2012 • Growth in TE&Y

Employees offset by Lower Capital Workforce

2014 Outlook: • Smaller Inflation Hurdle

+7%

Page 12: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

23

Fuel Expense Fourth Quarter 2013 $905M, -2%

• Average Diesel Fuel Price down 4%

$3.25 $3.11

Average Fuel Price (Per Gallon Consumed)

2012 2013

238,898 244,631

2012

Gross Ton-Miles (in Millions)

2013

+2%

-4%

• GTMs up 2% compared to 2012

• Consumption Rate Increase of 1%

24

$533 $585

Fourth Quarter 2013 Expense Review In Millions

2012

Purchased Services & Materials

2013

• Increased Costs for: – Locomotive & Freight Car

Repairs – Joint Facility Maintenance – Logistics Management Fees

+10%

$453 $458 • Higher Asset Base

• 2013 Equipment Rate Study

2012

Depreciation

2013

+1%

2014 Outlook (Depreciation): • 6 - 7% y-o-y increase • PTC investment impact

Page 13: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

25

Fourth Quarter 2013 Expense Review (cont) In Millions

• Container Costs – Contract Arrangement

• Higher Freight Car Rental Expense

$302 $311

2012

Equipment & Other Rents

2013

+3%

• Higher Property Tax Expense • Increased Freight and

Equipment Damage Costs • Lower Personal Injury Expense

$182 $188

2012

Other

2013

+3%

2014 Outlook (Other): • 5 - 10% y-o-y increase

26

Operating Ratio Performance

2010 2011 2012 2013

70.2

68.3 67.1

65.0

Fourth Quarter (Percent)

2010 2011 2012 2013

70.6 70.7

67.8 66.1

Full Year (Percent)

4th Qtr Record

All-Time Annual Record

-2.1 pts

-1.7 pts

Sub-65 Full Year Operating Ratio Goal before 2017

Page 14: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

27

Full Year Income Statement In Millions (except EPS)

Operating Revenues $21,963 $20,926 5 Operating Expenses 14,517 14,181 2 Operating Income 7,446 6,745 10 Other Income 128 108 19 Interest Expense (526) (535) (2) Income Taxes (2,660) (2,375) 12 Net Income $4,388 $3,943 11 Weighted Average Diluted Shares 465.8 476.5 (2)

Diluted EPS $9.42 $8.27 14

2013 2012 %

28

Strong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions)

Cash From Operations

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

Free Cash Flow* (After Dividends)

• Record Cash from Ops

• Record Free Cash Flow after Dividends

• Bonus Depreciation Impact – 2013: Net Favorable $35M – 2014: Unfavorable ($400)M

2011 2012 2013

$1,917 $1,382

$2,085

2011 2012 2013

$5,873 $6,161 $6,823 +11%

Net Bonus Depreciation Impact

All-Time Annual Record

All-Time Annual Record

Page 15: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

29

New Locomotive Purchases/Leases

Investments and Returns

2011 2012 2013

$3.2

$3.7 $3.6

Total Capital Spending* (In Billions)

Base Capital

2011 2012 2013

12.4

14.0 14.7

Return on Invested Capital** (Percent)

Positive Train Control

* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital. ** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

Best- Ever

Record

30

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

60 60 60 69 69 69

79 79

Delivering Value to Shareholders

Declared Dividend Per Share (cents)

+14.5%

2012 2013

+15%

Quarterly Share Repurchases ($ In Millions)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

$433 $415 $378 $248

$394 $463

$575

$786

2013 2012 2013 2012 2013 2012 2012

• Performance Drives Dividend Increases – Declared Dividend Increase of

14.5% in 2013 – Full Year 2013 Declared

Dividends grew 19% vs. 2012 – Achieved Payout Ratio of 31.5%

• Opportunistic Share Repurchases – 4Q 2013 = $786 Million – Full Year 2013 = $2.2 Billion – New 60M Share Repurchase

Authorization January 1, 2014 (4-year program) 2013

Page 16: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

31

$12,753 $12,772 $12,804 40.7% 39.1%

37.6% ~40%

Strong Financial Position As of December 31 ($ In Millions)

* See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

Adjusted Debt to Capital

Total Debt* (Adjusted)

2011 2012 2014E

• Strong Balance Sheet

• Investment Grade Credit Ratings

• 2013 Balance Sheet Debt increase of $600 Million

• Targeting 40% Debt-to-Cap and 1.5 times Debt-to-EBITDA at year-end 2014

• January 2014 Debt Issuance of $1 Billion

2013

Adjusted Debt / Adjusted EBITDA* 1.7

1.5 1.4 ~1.5

2011 2012 2014E 2013

32

A Look Ahead to 2014

• FY and 1Q Volume Growth Assuming an Improving Economy

• Record Earnings & Operating Ratio

• Pricing for Reinvestibility

• Leverage Diverse Franchise

• Increasing Shareholder Returns

Page 17: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

33

Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Jack Koraleski, CEO

34

Union Pacific’s Prospects Going Forward

• Well Positioned for Economic Growth

• Unrelenting Focus on Safety

• Excellent Service – Supports Pricing

Initiatives – Improves Asset Utilization

• Capital Investment Strategy

• Power and Potential of the UP Franchise

Page 18: Union Pacific SystemStrong Cash Generation Twelve Month Period Ending December 31 ($ In Millions) Cash From Operations * See Union Pacific website under Inves tors for a reconciliation

35

Cautionary Information This press release and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and its ability to meet its customers transportation requirements, operate safely, adequately serve its customers and improve financial performance and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

36

Fourth Quarter 2013 Earnings Release January 23, 2014 Question & Answer Session