unfpa/unece/nidi: training on international migration, jan. 27, 2005 policy challenges for...

UNFPA/UNECE/NIDI: Training on international migration, Jan. 27, 2005

Policy challenges for emigration countries

Dr. Werner Haug(Director, Population Studies and Surveys, Swiss Federal

Statistical Office)


Topics

• Migration trends and policy views on emigration• Negative and positive impacts of emigration• Policy challenges and options

– Protection of emigrants– Reduction/increase of out-migration– Integration through citizenship– Return of nationals– Relationship with diaspora– Remittances– Migration and development partnerships– Data and information on volumes, types and motives of

outmigration, circular migration and return migration


Migration and policy views on emigration, Central Europe and the Baltics (UN Population Division/World Population Policies, 2003)

Migrant stock %

(2000/01)

Net migration per 1000 (1995-2000)

Policy view on emigration

Policy goal Encourage return of nationals

Bulgaria 1.2 -4.9 Too high Lower Yes

Czech R. 2.3 1.0 Too high Lower Yes

Hungary 3.0 -0.7 Satisfactory No measures Yes

Poland 5.4 -0.5 Satisfactory None Yes

Romania 0.4 -0.5 Too high Lower Yes

Slovakia 0.6 0.3 Satisfactory No measures No

Estonia 26.7 -8.0 Satisfactory Maintain No

Latvia 25.8 -2.0 Too high Lower Yes

Lithuania 9.7 0.0 Satisfactory No measures No


Migration and policy views on emigration, Eastern Europe and Central Asia (UN Population Division/World Population Policies, 2003)

Migrant stock %

(2000/01)

Net migration per 1000

(1995-2000)


Policy goal Encourage

return of nationals

Armenia 9.6 -2.5 Too high Lower Yes

Azerbaijan 1.8 -0.8 Satisfactory No measures No

Georgia 4.2 -5.7 Too high Lower ..

Belarus 12.8 1.5 Satisfactory Lower No

Moldova 11.1 -2.5 Satisfactory Lower Yes

Russian F. 9.1 2.0 Satisfactory Lower Yes

Ukraine 14.0 -2.0 Too high Lower Yes

Kazakhstan 19.4 -12.2 Too high Lower Yes

Kyrgyzstan 11.6 -0.5 Satisfactory Lower No

Tadjikistan 5.4 -10.3 Too high Lower Yes

Turkmenist. 4.8 2.2 Too high No measures ..

Uzbekistan 5.5 -0.7 Satisfactory Maintain Yes


Migration and policy views on emigration, Western Balkans (UN Population Division/World Population Policies, 2003)

Migrant stock %

Net migration per 1000 (1995-2000)


Policy goal Return of nationals

Albania 0.4 -19.0 Too high No measures Yes

Bosn.-Herz. 2.4 27.0 Too high Lower Yes

Croatia 9.6 0.0 Too high Lower Yes

Slovenia 2.6 0.5 Satisfactory No measures Yes

FYR Macedonia

1.6 0.5 Too high Lower No

Serbia/Mont. 5.9 -1.9 Too high Lower Yes


Migration and policy views on emigration: overview

Central Europe and Baltics

Eastern Europe and Central Asia

Western Balkans

Total

Total number of countries 9 12 6 27

Countries with negative net migration 6 9 2 17 (63%)

Views on emigration: Too high 4 6 5 15 (55%)

Satisfactory 5 6 1 12

Policy goals: Lower emigration 5 9 4 17

No measures 3 2 2 7

Countries favouring return of nationals 6 7 5 18 (66%)


Flows and stocks of migrants

• A large majority of countries are net-emigration countries in the 1990’s and today.

• Those that are not, observe important return flows mostly of nationals and/or members of the dominant ethnic group as well as labour migration.

• Important stocks of migrants are residing in many countries, particularly in regions of the former USSR. Some of them became foreigners after the split up of the federal states, some have double citizenship and some are still stateless or in an undecided situation.


Policy view: emigration is too high and should be lowered

• A majority of governments are of the opinion that emigration is too high and that it should be lowered.

• Most governments favour the return of nationals.


Policy view: emigration is satisfactory or should be maintained, no intervention

Some other views:• Estonia: maintain out-migration for political and ethnic

reasons because it affects mostly non-nationals and non-Estonians

• Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan: closed economies, out-migration only of specific ethnic or political groups

• Albania: traditional labour migration argument: out-migration has also positive economic effects (reduction of unemployment, remittances, diaspora)

• EU/Accession states: no intervention on the way to liberal economic policies and economic development (free movement of labour, capital and goods)


General population growth and emigration

• The attitude of countries towards emigration is also influenced by population growth in general. Countries with a loss of population have a more negative view on emigration than countries with a population gain. They are generally neutral about emigration.


Population growth and components, 2003/04 (EUROSTAT; UN)

Loss of population Gain of population

Net migration and natural growth negative

Net migration negative, natural growth positive

Net migration positive, natural growth negative

Net migration positive and natural growth positive

Net migration positive, natural growth negative

Net migration negative, natural growth positive

Bulgaria

Estonia Lituania Latvia Moldova

Poland

Romania Ukraine

FYR Macedonia Albania

KyrgyzstanKazakhstan (?)

Tadjikistan

Uzbekistan

Belarus

Croatia

Hungary

Russian Federation

Belgium

Cyprus

Denmark

Finland

France

Irland

Luxembourg

Norway

Malta

Netherlands

Portugal

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

UK

Turkey

Germany

Austria

Greece

Italy

Slovakia

Slovenia

Czech R.

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Iceland

Georgia


The position of countries can rapidly change

• Under the influence of economic and demographic trends: the position of countries can change rapidly. All countries are at the same time emigration and immigration countries.

• Example of Russian Federation and Slovakia: in the 1990’s, Slovakia was a net emigration country, the R.F. a net immigration country.

• Slovakia became a net immigration country for foreign nationals in 2003, the Russian Federation might become a net emigration country for foreign nationals in the future.


Net migration in Russia and Slovakia, 1995-2002


Possible negative impacts of emigration

• Ageing (outmigration of the young and economically active)

• Brain drain, outmigration of the elite and loss of human capital

• Depopulation with impacts on employment opportunities, public infrastructure, taxes, etc.

• Dependent development (remittances, transfers etc.)

• Imbalanced regional development (rapid urbanization, depopulation in rural areas etc.)

• Decrease in cultural and linguistic diversity


Impact of emigration on the age structure Albania 2000: extremely low proportions of children in the emigration

regions of the South


Impact of emigration on the age structure Albania 2000: extremely high proportions of elderly persons in the

emigration regions of the South


Impact of emigration on the age structure Albania 2000: extremely high elderly dependency ratios in the

emigration regions of the South


Imbalanced regional development through migration

Albania: Negative population growth in the country, huge gains in the capital area


Imbalanced regional development through migration

Kyrgyzstan: migration from high altitude, peripheral areas to the capital


Capital areas as transit and emigration zones for international migration

Kyrgyzstan: more external loss than internal gain in the capital area


Changing ethnic structures through migration Kyrgyzstan: Kyrgyz internal migrants replace Russian emigrants in the

capital area


Brain drain through migration: examples of Kyrgyzstan and Albania

• Outmigration has a generally a U shaped form according to qualification and human capital. Members of the elite emigrate much more frequently as well as persons with a low level of qualification.

• Kyrgyzstan: 300’000 Russians (1/3 of the Russian population of 1989) left the country between 1989 and 1999, many of the economcially active had tertiary and secondary education and leading positions in industry, education and research and the public sector.

• Albania: 40% of the staff of research centres and cultural institutions left between 1991 and 98 and 60% of all teachers. The male population with higher secondary education decreased by 21% between 1989 and 2001 and the male population with tertiary education by 13%.


Possible positive impacts of emigration

• Reduction of the number of unemployed and of pressure on public services and infrastructure

• Increase of household income and quality of life of out-migrants and (through remittances) of non-migrant household members

• Increase of consumption, investment, inflow of foreign currency and improvement of balance of payments through remittances

• Increase of trade and transnational relations through networks of the diaspora

• Brain gain through trained and innovative return migrants• Decrease of ethnic and linguistic tensions and conflicts


Some general policy principles for emigration countries

• Regular outmigration is in the common interest of emigration and immigration countries, irregular outmigration creates problems for both

• Return migration of nationals is the other side of the medal, it is a fundamental human right and can contribute to development

• Emigration countries have responsibilities towards their nationals abroad

• Temporary and circular migration can reduce the pressure for permanent emigration

• Citizenship and integration policies can prevent emigration of foreign migrants and minorities

• Diasporas and transnational networks are important for training, trade and investment


Policy field: Protection of emigrants

• Information and training of outmigrants• Consular assistance abroad• Diplomatic support for emigrants and diasporas• Multilateral agreements for the protection of

human rights and against exploitation and discrimination of migrants

• Bilateral agreements for the protection and the rights of nationals


Policy field: Legal ways of emigration and return of nationals

• Access to and support with passports and documents

• Liberal visa regimes, based on reciprocity• Safe, affordable and transparent channels of

emigration• Fight against criminal organizations for

smuggling and trafficking• Bilateral and multilateral agreements for entry,

stay and return of nationals


Policy field: Prevention of outmigration of foreigners and minorities

• Access to citizenship for long term residents

• Admit double citizenship

• National legislation and policies for equal treatment and to fight discrimination

• Policies favouring cultural, linguistic and religious diversity


Policy field: Supporting the return of nationals

• Access to citizenship for former nationals

• Financial, economic and family incentives for return

• Schemes for the re-integration of emigrants (support, training, equal treatment)

• Schemes for temporary out-migration


Policy field: Development through migration

• Create conditions for safe, rapid and affordable financial transactions and communications.

• Develop credit and investment programmes for migrant families and return migrants

• Build bilateral migration-development partnerships (migration for training and education, migration for trade, migration for cultural exchange, voluntary or mandatory return and reinstallation)

• Develop policies for regional development and devolution


Favour data collection and analysis on emigration and its impact

• Collect data on outmigration and return migration according to age, sex, level of education and professional qualification

• Collect data on the stock of nationals abroad, motives and conditions for return

• Collect data on discrimination and exclusion of foreigners and minorities

• Evaluate the impact of emigration on demography, economics and society

• Collect data on financial flows (remittances) and evaluate their impact on development


Some problems and contradictions

• Conflicting interests between emigration and immigration countries (e.g. international treaties)

• Conflicting interests between emigrating individuals and the state (e.g. irregular migration)

• Conflicting interest between nationbuilding, and cultural diversity

• Weak states have only limited ressources to implement policies and schemes

• Strong effects of economic cycles, macroeconomic and political shocks on migration policies


References

• Eurostat, News Release, 1/5, 2004• Instat, Migration in Albania, Results of the 2001

Population and Housing Census, Tirana, 2004• Instat, Albanian Population Census Atlas, Tirana, 2004• National Statistical Committe, Mountain Atlas of the

Kyrgyz Republic, Bishkek, 2004• IOM/Berne Initative, International Agenda for Migration

Management, Berne, December 2004• Salt John, Trends in International Migration, Council of

Europe, 2003• United Nations, World Population Policies 2003

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