Conférence généraleVingt-neuvième sessionDocument d’information

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Paris 1997 General ConferenceTwenty-ninth SessionInformation document

Conferencia General29a reuniónDocumento de información

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29 C/INF.930 July 1997Original: French

REPORT BY THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL ON ACTIVITIESIN THE FIELD OF ANTICIPATION AND FUTURE-ORIENTED STUDIES

OUTLINE

Source: Document submitted on the initiative of the Director-General.

Background: The Medium-Term Strategy for 1996-2001, adopted by theGeneral Conference at its twenty-eighth session, gives high priority toanticipation and future-oriented studies and says that the Organization ‘willstrengthen’ its ‘intellectual watch’ function during the six-year period(28 C/4, para. 44). It states: ‘If UNESCO is to keep abreast of the rapidchanges that may be observed at both world and regional level, it must havethe ability to anticipate. A future-oriented outlook capable of inspiring actionshould be a natural attribute of an international organization committed tointellectual co-operation’ (28 C/4, para. 212). Accordingly, ‘UNESCOmust … give priority to the formulation of global strategies as a response toworld problems’ (28 C/4, para. 215). It is for that reason that the Director-General has taken steps to translate the major policy objectives of theMedium-Term Strategy into the action of the Organization and to reflectthem in the proposals relating to the Draft Programme and Budget for 1998-1999 (29 C/5).

Purpose: The present document gives a brief account of these proposals,which are focused, inter alia, on making the general public and decision-makers more aware of the major challenges of the future, on anticipatingchanges and foreseeable needs in the Organization’s fields of competenceand on co-operation with the international organizations and the institutionsconcerned.

Decision required: This document does not require a decision.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

I. Anticipation and future-oriented studies: a priority for UNESCO ......................... 1

II. Implementation by the Director-General .............................................................. 3

(i) Brief outline of previous activities in the fieldof future-oriented studies ........................................................................... 3

(ii) A new course: the Medium-Term Strategy for 1996-2001 (28 C/4) ............ 3

(iii) The Draft Programme and Budget for 1998-1999 (29 C/5) ......................... 4

III. Anticipation and future-oriented studies .............................................................. 5

(i) Strengthening of the Directorate’s capacities for anticipation ...................... 5

(ii) Activities of intellectual co-operation within the fieldof anticipation and future-oriented studies .................................................. 5

(iii) Publications and documents ........................................................................ 6

Annexes I Excerpts from the Medium-Term Strategy relating to the reinforcement andrevitalization of UNESCO’s activities in the field of anticipation and future-oriented studies

Annexes II Technical Annex to the Draft Programme and Budget for 1998-1999(29 C/5), paragraph 1205

Annexes III Address delivered by the Director-General of UNESCO at the opening of thethird meeting of the Agenda for the Millennium: Ethics of the Future (Rio deJaneiro, 2-5 July 1997)

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I. ANTICIPATION AND FUTURE-ORIENTED STUDIES: A PRIORITY FORUNESCO

1. The General Conference, in 27 C/Resolution 15, stated that UNESCO must ‘approachthe major issues of the future’. The Medium-Term Strategy for 1996-2001 (28 C/4), adoptedby the General Conference at its twenty-eighth session, indeed lays stress on the high prioritythat must be given to anticipation, long-term analysis and the formulation of action strategiesfor the future: ‘A future-oriented outlook capable of inspiring action should be a naturalattribute of an international organization committed to intellectual co-operation. Withoutdownplaying the importance of activities responding to the most pressing needs, UNESCOmust be a place that looks to the future on behalf of the international community. The aim mustbe to foresee in order to forewarn’ (28 C/4 Approved, para. 212; see the extracts fromdocument 28 C/4 reproduced in Annex I).

2. This priority falls within the intellectual watch function attributed to the Organizationunder its Constitution, which requires UNESCO to help ‘maintain, increase and diffuseknowledge’ and to encourage ‘co-operation among the nations in all branches of intellectualactivity’ (Article I of the Constitution). The intellectual and ethical responsibility of UNESCOas an ‘intellectual forum’ and a ‘laboratory of ideas’ is strongly emphasized in the Medium-Term Strategy, which establishes a link between this function and anticipation: ‘During the six-year period, UNESCO will strengthen its “intellectual watch” function by endeavouring, inparticular, to anticipate foreseeable needs in its fields of competence up to the year 2020’(28 C/4, para. 44).

3. To ensure that policies can have some effect on a reality that is changing, there is a needto take the initiative. A long time is needed, in fact (one generation at least, very often twogenerations or more), between the formulation of an idea and the launching of a policy and itsimplementation. Action to promote education, science, culture, communication andinformation requires a long-term investment. There is therefore a need to plan for the future,fashion it, imagine it and invent it. There is also a need to be prepared to manage theunexpected, which implies the education of the young and of future generations so that theycan adapt to complex systems in which the unexpected will figure very prominently. It islikewise necessary to become accustomed to the idea that the future will to a large extent bethe outcome of our present actions. A link should therefore be established between theseactions and a long-term vision, which creates responsibilities not only for decision-makers andthe general public but also for education, science, culture and communication, which have aduty to make democratic choices intelligible.

4. In a rapidly changing world and in order to increase the relevance of its action, UNESCOmust therefore analyse, imagine and propose. It must be able to cross the frontiers ofdisciplines and special fields, since solutions are increasingly interdisciplinary. It must not onlyfoster action in its spheres of competence but also through its fields of competence, ‘developedon the basis of a thematic rather than a sectoral approach’ as is stipulated in the Medium-TermStrategy, since the challenges of the early twenty-first century ‘cut across the boundariesbetween disciplines and even between fields of knowledge’ (28 C/4, para. 217). The quality ofthe Organization’s activity and the solutions that it recommends thus depend first of all on itsability to select relevant information, guide decision-making systems, foresee and henceforewarn.

5. Lastly, and above all, the Organization’s function of anticipation and long-term analysismust have an ethical foundation, which is the one that is assigned to UNESCO by its

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Constitution: to found peace ‘upon the intellectual and moral solidarity of mankind’, to worktowards ‘the common welfare of mankind’, ‘to contribute to peace and security’, ‘bypromoting collaboration among the nations through education, science and culture’ and ‘byencouraging co-operation among the nations in all branches of intellectual activity’. On thethreshold of the twenty-first century, new clouds darken the horizon. As the Director-Generalsaid: ‘All over the world, the citizens of today are appropriating the rights of the citizens oftomorrow, threatening their well-being and at times their lives … Caught in the vortex of theimmediate, oppressed by urgency, we do not have time to shape our actions or think abouttheir consequences. We are hurtling into the future, without any brakes and in conditions ofzero visibility. Yet, the faster a car goes, the brighter its headlights must be. It is not, therefore,a question of adjusting or adapting … We must take a clear-sighted approach, turned towardsthe future; we must turn a future-oriented eye on the world … To have foresight is not merelya choice; it is an obligation and a moral imperative’ (see Annex III).

6. The endeavour to renew and strengthen the Organization’s capacity to anticipatematches the efforts of other international and regional organizations, which have similarlyequipped themselves in the recent past with specialized units or have strengthened their globalor regional potential for future-oriented studies (European Union, OECD, UNDP’s ‘Africanfutures’ programme, FAO, etc.). UNESCO has even paved the way. The United NationsSecretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, has thus decided in his Programme for Reform of July1997 to establish a Strategic Planning Unit ‘charged with identifying emerging global issuesand trends, analysing their implications for the roles and working methods of the UnitedNations, and devising policy recommendations for the Secretary-General and the SeniorManagement Group’ (Report by the Secretary-General of the United Nations ‘Renewing theUnited Nations: A Programme for Reform’, para. 39). This Group will also serve as ‘theprincipal liaison with the research institutes’ of the United Nations, ‘providing them withsuggestions for research topics and constituting one of the primary consumers of relevantresearch topics’ (op. cit., para. 271).

7. The wish expressed at the highest international level to strengthen capacities foranticipation and future-oriented studies makes it possible to envisage better co-operation andco-ordination in the future between institutional partners, primarily within the United Nationssystem, based on common assessments and leading to joint actions. Accordingly, the Director-General of UNESCO has decided to associate himself with the proposal by Mr Kofi Annan fora ‘Millennium Assembly’ in the year 2000, which would be an extraordinary session of theGeneral Assembly ‘with a summit segment at which heads of government could come togetherto articulate their vision of prospects and challenges for the new millennium and agree on aprocess for fundamental review of the role of the United Nations’ (op. cit., para. 91).

8. The strengthening of UNESCO’s capacity for anticipation and future-oriented studiesalso calls for the development of its partnership with intellectuals, scientists, artists, renownedexperts, research groups and governmental and non-governmental organizations in order to‘facilitate the exchange of information, knowledge and expertise among institutions andspecialists’ as recommended in the Medium-Term Strategy (para. 222). A great effort is beingmade in this field (see Part III) in accordance with the Medium-Term Strategy, which providesthat ‘the findings of the main groups of experts and centres for future studies at world levelwill be channelled into several focal points of debate, analysis and prediction with a view tofinding ways in which the Organization might alter or associate itself with probable trends in itsfields of competence’ (28 C/4, para. 213). The results of these investigations must also be

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communicated to decision-makers, particularly in the form of ‘policy briefs on specific orurgent issues’ (28 C/4, para. 222).

II. IMPLEMENTATION BY THE DIRECTOR-GENERAL

(i) Brief outline of previous activities in the field of future-oriented studies

9. Various initiatives have been taken in the past in the field of anticipation and future-oriented studies. For example, the Second Medium-Term Plan (1984-1989) included ‘MajorProgramme I’ entitled ‘Reflection on world problems and future-oriented studies’. In the ThirdMedium-Term Plan (1990-1995), a transverse programme entitled ‘Future-oriented studies’provided for the launching of a bibliographical database and bulletin, in addition to variousinnovations (encouragement of future-oriented studies in university and postgraduateeducation, identification of future-oriented trends in various regions or subregions such as theMediterranean Basin). Future-oriented studies were included in the ‘Clearing houseprogramme’ in document 27 C/5 (1994-1995) for the first time. As the Director-General hasindicated in document 29 C/3, the programme of work relating to the Futuresco database mustbe considered as completed.

10. When the Medium-Term Strategy (28 C/4) was being prepared, the Director-Generaldecided to renew and to strengthen the Organization’s activities in the field of anticipation andfuture-oriented studies, setting up the Analysis and Forecasting Unit (UAP) for this purpose inSeptember 1994 (see DG/Note/94/39 of 2 September 1994). Under the direct authority of theDirector-General and in co-operation with the General Directorate, this Unit is responsible forconducting surveys, research, analysis and forecasting on key issues of concern to UNESCO inorder to anticipate future developments and sketch out guidelines for general policy and action.The Director-General has requested UAP to help him to identify the most appropriateinnovatory approaches, enlisting, as needs dictate, the collaboration of the best institutes forfuture-oriented studies while at the same time ensuring that the activities assigned to it arefocused on priority schemes likely to have an impact on decision-makers.

(ii) A new course: the Medium-Term Strategy for 1996-2001 (28 C/4)

11. The Medium-Term Strategy for 1996-2001 (28 C/4) has confirmed the adoption of anew course of action in the field of anticipation and future-oriented studies, to which it giveshigh priority, while stressing the need for the Organization to ‘prepare for the twenty-firstcentury’ and to reflect on the rapid changes observed as the twenty-first century draws nearwhich could have an impact on UNESCO’s fields of competence: the technological andscientific revolution; social and economic transformations; conflicts and threats to the securityof individuals and states; changes in the natural and urban environment; new forms ofintegration, governance and solidarity; the cultural future of societies; activities of majorregional and international organizations (see: ‘Problems and challenges of the twenty-firstcentury’, 28 C/4, paras. 17-28). The Medium-Term Strategy recommends that during theperiod 1996-2001 UNESCO should strengthen its ‘intellectual watch’ function byendeavouring to anticipate foreseeable needs in its fields of competence and to outline themajor thrusts of the action that should be taken to meet them satisfactorily (28 C/4, para. 44;the main excerpts from the Medium-Term Strategy are contained in Annex I).

12. Furthermore, to concentrate the Organization’s activities in the field of anticipation andfuture-oriented studies, the Director-General has requested UAP to carry out the activities

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relating to future-oriented studies previously provided for under the Clearing houseprogramme (‘Future-oriented studies’). The budget allocated to this programme in document28 C/5 Approved has now been allocated to UAP (DG/Note/96/39 of 26 July 1996). TheDirector-General has also requested UAP to submit to him proposals for renewing andstrengthening the Organization’s action in the field of anticipation and future-oriented researchso that UNESCO’s programme will reflect even more the lines of emphasis adopted by theGeneral Conference in the Medium-Term Strategy. These proposals have led to the new linesof emphasis set out below.

(iii) The Draft Programme and Budget for 1998-1999 (29 C/5)

13. The proposals for the renewal and strengthening of activities in the field of anticipationand future-oriented activities cover two aspects:

a number of initiatives to be taken immediately (see paragraphs 16-23 below);

the renewal of the anticipation and future-oriented studies programme within theframework of the proposals made by the Director-General in document 29 C/5 (DraftProgramme and Budget for 1998-1999).

14. The proposals contained in document 29 C/5 are focused on the following lines ofaction:

(a) making the general public and decision-makers more aware of the major challengesof the future by disseminating the findings of leading experts at world level in thefield of future-oriented studies by the most appropriate means, notably through thepublication of two future-oriented reports by the Director-General to be publishedin 1998 and 1999 on development prospects in the Organization’s fields ofcompetence, and through the production of policy briefs for decision-makers;

(b) increasing the Organization’s capacity for the anticipation of future trends with aview to renewing approaches in its various fields of competence in particularthrough the establishment of a Council on the Future as an advisory ‘virtualnetwork’ for gathering views and recommendations from leading experts andgroups of experts in the field of future-oriented studies;

(c) anticipating challenges and foreseeable needs in UNESCO’s fields of competenceand outlining strategies for preventive action, in particular by holding aninterdisciplinary conference entitled ‘Twenty-first century dialogues’, which will beone of the Organization’s main intellectual contributions to celebrations markingthe year 2000;

(d) establishing contacts and co-operation with international organizations andinstitutions concerned, and organizing public debates, at Headquarters and in thefield, in the various regions of the world, on preparations for the twenty-firstcentury.

15. The functions of the Analysis and Forecasting Unit are listed in Annex II to thisdocument.

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III. ANTICIPATION AND FUTURE-ORIENTED STUDIES

(i) Strengthening of the Directorate’s capacities for anticipation

16. It is the function of UAP to provide the Director-General with advice on long-termtrends within the Organization’s fields of competence, so as to anticipate how certainphenomena will develop and outline the main lines of general policy and action. In this context,UAP helped in the preparation of the Note presented by the Director-General to the UnitedNations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II, City Summit, Istanbul, 3-14 June1996) and in the preparation of a number of international meetings that the Director-Generalattended. In addition, UAP has prepared for the Director-General numerous analytical briefsand documents that throw light on emerging trends at worldwide and regional levels. It alsocontributes directly to the work of the Directorate by preparing future-oriented study papersthat are likely to be of help in decision-making.

(ii) Activities of intellectual co-operation within the field of anticipation and future-oriented studies

17. It is essential that the Organization should co-operate with the leading experts andgroups of experts specializing in future-oriented studies. UAP encourages the establishment ofco-operation with such individuals and groups and co-operates on joint activities.

18. UNESCO has, for example, assisted in the organization of three meetings of the ‘Agendafor the Millennium’ organized by the Senior Board of the International Social Science Councilon the following subjects: Cultural pluralism, identity and globalization (Rio de Janeiro,10-12 April 1996); Representation and complexity (Rio de Janeiro, 4-6 November 1996); andEthics of the Future (Rio de Janeiro, 2-4 July 1997). These meetings gave high-level expertsan opportunity to exchange views on these issues. The Director-General attended the 1997meeting, where he delivered an address, several extracts from which are reproduced inAnnex III. Each of these meetings was followed by a separate publication.

19. With regard to anticipation and future-oriented studies, UNESCO also maintains linkswith: (a) major international organizations; (b) the institutional counterparts of UAP withininternational organizations; (c) forecasting units that have been established within variousnational ministries; (d) non-governmental organizations; (e) numerous universities and researchcentres; (f) scientists, intellectuals and artists of international renown involved in this field;(g) major international print and broadcasting media.

20. As a contribution to the international debate on the major challenges of the twenty-firstcentury, UAP is planning to hold a series of debates entitled ‘21st Century Talks’. The firstmeeting, scheduled for 9 September 1997, will be on the subject: ‘What future for the humanspecies?’ and will bring together the French sociologist Edgar Morin, and the specialist in thetheory of evolution Stephen Jay Gould, member of the American Academy of Arts andSciences. UAP also organized, at UNESCO Headquarters on 18 June 1997, the preliminarypresentation of the ‘World Development Report 1997’ of the World Bank.

21. In addition, UAP has participated, with regard to scientific communications, ininternational seminars, such as the one organized by France in conjunction with the EuropeanUnion on the subject: ‘The environment in the 21st century: environment, long-termgovernance and democracy’ (8-11 September 1996, Abbey of Fontevraud, France) and thecolloquium of the Institut de formation continue du Barreau de Paris (Permanent Training

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Institute of the Paris Bar Association) on ‘The information society: technical, economic, legaland cultural aspects of the information highways’ (Paris, 22 February 1996). UNESCO hasalso lent its support to various initiatives such as the 15th World Conference of the WorldFutures Studies Federation (Brisbane, Australia, 28 September-3 October 1997) and theNordic Regional World Futures Studies Federation Symposium (March 1997), in which UAPparticipated.

(iii) Publications and documents

22. UAP’s activities have led to the publication of several works, articles and brochures:

Note presented by the Director-General at the United Nations Conference on HumanSettlements (Habitat II, City Summit), June 1996 (in co-operation with the Social andHuman Sciences Sector);

‘The City Summit: The lessons of Istanbul’, published in the magazine Futures, Vol. 29,No. 3, 1997, pp. 213-227 (the original French text was published as ‘Le Sommet de laville’ in the magazine Futuribles, July-August 1996, No. 211, pp. 77-95);

‘Communication and intelligence: distance education and culture?’ A paper presented atthe symposium ‘The information society’ published in Les petites affiches, No. 134,6 November 1996;

Papers for the three seminars of the ‘Agenda for the Millennium’ (see above, para. 18);

The ‘Agenda for the Millennium’ has already resulted in the publication of two works:Cultural pluralism, identity and globalization (UNESCO/ISSC/Educam, 1996) andReprésentation et complexité (UNESCO/ISSC/Educam, 1997);

A third work, on Ethics of the Future, will soon be published, with a view todisseminating the results of the third meeting of the ‘Agenda for the Millennium’.

23. Issue No. 5 of the newsletter Futuresco, published in June 1996, focused on ‘The futuresof human rights and democracy’, and No. 6, published in October 1996, on ‘Impact and futurechallenges of new information technologies’. The Director-General is now studying, inconjunction with UAP, various options concerning the dissemination of a radically overhauledversion of the Futuresco newsletter.

24. In addition to the future-oriented reports on trends in the Organization’s fields ofcompetence (see above), it is planned, during the 1998-1999 biennium, to publish thefollowing: two brief forward-looking guides, one of which will be devoted to cities; a literaryanthology entitled ‘The world in 2100’ with contributions from world-famous fiction writers; abook of cartoons entitled ‘Draw me the twenty-first century’, and a video entitled ‘Twenty-first century dialogues’ (29 C/5, para. 12005). Various co-operative arrangements withtelevision channels and networks are now being negotiated.