UNESCO UNESCO Desire – Net projectDesire – Net project

E-learning courseE-learning course Energy and sustainable development:Energy and sustainable development:

The global energy frameworkThe global energy framework

Giovanna AnselmiGiovanna AnselmiEnea – UDA AdvisorEnea – UDA Advisor

ganselmi@sede.enea.itganselmi@sede.enea.it

UNESCOUNESCORome, 2006 19Rome, 2006 19thth June June

OUTLINEOUTLINE

Energy Needs of world population

Energy Demand& Supply

Fossil Fuels &RES Share

Main Problems

2050: 10 Billion people in the world2050: 10 Billion people in the world

Energy Needs (Total Fuel Consumption)Energy Needs (Total Fuel Consumption)

2002: 7000 Mtoe/year = 9.3 TW 2002: 7000 Mtoe/year = 9.3 TW

2050: > 15000Mtoe/year = > 20 TW 2050: > 15000Mtoe/year = > 20 TW

Electricity 2002: 1.8 TW, of wich 0.3 nuclearElectricity 2002: 1.8 TW, of wich 0.3 nuclear

Transport 2002: 2.5 TW Transport 2002: 2.5 TW

(Nuclear 2050 10 TW: one reactor every second day)(Nuclear 2050 10 TW: one reactor every second day)

Energy Needs of world populationEnergy Needs of world population

The global energy frameworkThe global energy frameworkDemandDemand

- Global energy needs are likely to continue to grow for at least the next Global energy needs are likely to continue to grow for at least the next two - and - half decades, absent new policiestwo - and - half decades, absent new policies

- The world’s energy needs would be more than 50% higher in 2030 than The world’s energy needs would be more than 50% higher in 2030 than todaytoday

- Over 60% of the increase would be in the form of oil and gasOver 60% of the increase would be in the form of oil and gas

- RES share is growing about 1,8 per year since 1990- RES share is growing about 1,8 per year since 1990

-These global trends would raise several serious concerns:These global trends would raise several serious concerns: The energy resources are far from evenly distributed geograficallyThe energy resources are far from evenly distributed geografically Almost all the increase in en. prod. will occur in non-OECD countriesAlmost all the increase in en. prod. will occur in non-OECD countries Energy export to OECD countries will increase substantiallyEnergy export to OECD countries will increase substantially

The global energy frameworkThe global energy frameworkPrimary Energy SupplyPrimary Energy Supply

- World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2003 was 10 579 Mtoe, of World Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in 2003 was 10 579 Mtoe, of wich: wich:

13.3% (1404 Mtoe) from RES13.3% (1404 Mtoe) from RES

34.4% from oil34.4% from oil

24.4% from coal 24.4% from coal

21.2% was the share of natural gas 21.2% was the share of natural gas

6.5% the share of nuclear energy6.5% the share of nuclear energy

ASIA exclude ChinaASIA exclude China

The global energy frameworkThe global energy framework

Trends inTrends in Energy Consumption by end use sectorEnergy Consumption by end use sectorGraph 1: Residential Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025Graph 1: Residential Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025

The global energy frameworkThe global energy framework

Trends inTrends in Energy Consumption by end use sectorEnergy Consumption by end use sectorGraph 2: Commercial Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025Graph 2: Commercial Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025

The global energy frameworkThe global energy framework

Trends inTrends in Energy Consumption by end use sectorEnergy Consumption by end use sectorGraph 3 : Industrial Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025Graph 3 : Industrial Sector Energy Consumption By Region 2002 - 2025

The global energy frameworkThe global energy framework

Trends inTrends in Energy Consumption by end use sectorEnergy Consumption by end use sectorGraph 4: Transportation Sect. Energy Consumption By Region 2002-2025

The global energy frameworkThe global energy frameworkTrends in Energy ConsumptionTrends in Energy Consumption

Energy Consuption Trends going up, what kind of Problems and Solutions are

foreseeable?

MAIN PROBLEMSMAIN PROBLEMS

Increasing energy demand Increasing energy demand

Limited reserves of EnergyLimited reserves of Energy

Volatility of OIL PriceVolatility of OIL Price

Vulnerability to supply shocksVulnerability to supply shocks

Pollution emissionPollution emission

Availability of RES Technologies at low costsAvailability of RES Technologies at low costs

Increasing energy demandIncreasing energy demand

Increasing energy demand requests more and more availability of Increasing energy demand requests more and more availability of resources: without them there is a limit for a sustainable developmentresources: without them there is a limit for a sustainable development: :

• it means investments for new sources exploitation it means investments for new sources exploitation

and and

• funding for new technologies to push the RES development and diffusionfunding for new technologies to push the RES development and diffusion

• funding to improve energy efficiency and energy savingfunding to improve energy efficiency and energy saving

• funding to decrease pollution emissionfunding to decrease pollution emission

Limited reserves of EnergyLimited reserves of Energy

Natural gas suffer * Natural gas suffer * of supply shocks too.of supply shocks too.Coal of pollutionCoal of pollution

Nuclear is expected **to Nuclear is expected **to be ready for a safe use in be ready for a safe use in many decadesmany decades

Hydro sources ***Hydro sources ***are about completely are about completely exploitedexploited

RES are expected **** RES are expected **** to play a limited roleto play a limited role

Proven oil reserves are sufficent to meet world demand at current level for 40 Proven oil reserves are sufficent to meet world demand at current level for 40 years, but unforeseable demand growth and foreseable supply shocks suggest to years, but unforeseable demand growth and foreseable supply shocks suggest to build up new storages: It remain very expensive both for developed and emerging build up new storages: It remain very expensive both for developed and emerging countries countries

Leading Countries for Proven oil reservesLeading Countries for Proven oil reserves

Volatility of OIL PriceVolatility of OIL Price

Unforeseeable peaks of demandUnforeseeable peaks of demand

Allmost null spare production capacityAllmost null spare production capacity

Geopolitical crisesGeopolitical crises

New Investments for new sources exploitation and liftNew Investments for new sources exploitation and lift

Vulnerability to supply shocksVulnerability to supply shocks

Inter-regional oil and gas trade is vulnerable to interruption and the threat must be assessed and evaluated

Most of the oil and gas exported by Middle Eastern countries flows through just three channels, all of which are susceptible to sudden closure as a result of accidents, piracy, terrorist attacks or war

Pollution emissionPollution emissionWorld Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Type, 1970-2025

Availability of RES TechnologiesAvailability of RES Technologies

1.1. Cooperation with EU in developing the energy technology assessment to Cooperation with EU in developing the energy technology assessment to choose the best RES Technology in relation to the country’s geo-economic choose the best RES Technology in relation to the country’s geo-economic and environmental conditions. and environmental conditions.

2.2. Development of an istitutional environment to deepening scientific, industrial Development of an istitutional environment to deepening scientific, industrial and commercial relations with countries owners of the approppriate RES and commercial relations with countries owners of the approppriate RES technologies in order totechnologies in order to::

a technology transfera technology transfer a know how transfera know how transfer a development of a permanent technological & commercial a development of a permanent technological & commercial

cooperationcooperation3. 3. Development of in loco manifactures to produce the tecnologies usefull for Development of in loco manifactures to produce the tecnologies usefull for RES exploitationRES exploitation4.4. Development of a network for commercialization of RES technologiesDevelopment of a network for commercialization of RES technologies5. Establishing institutional and environmental high level of FDI attractivity with:5. Establishing institutional and environmental high level of FDI attractivity with:

incentives for Investorsincentives for Investors low level of taxation for import/exportslow level of taxation for import/exports availability for traning of work force availability for traning of work force availability of infrastructures (for transports, education, health etc…)availability of infrastructures (for transports, education, health etc…)

Possible SolutionsPossible Solutions

- Diversify the energy mix Diversify the energy mix

- Improve the efficiency in energy use through technological changeImprove the efficiency in energy use through technological change and researchand research

- Establish Favourable Inner Institutional and Economic Environment for Establish Favourable Inner Institutional and Economic Environment for InvestorsInvestors

- Deepen External RelationsDeepen External Relations

- Build up RES network between homogeneous regions to reduce theBuild up RES network between homogeneous regions to reduce the production costsproduction costs

-Cooperate at different levels (Cooperate at different levels (technological know how transfer; technological assistence; etc.. ) with Countries owners of RES Technologies ) with Countries owners of RES Technologies

CONCLUSION

From economic data emerge a strong incentive :From economic data emerge a strong incentive :

• To technological change and innovationTo technological change and innovation• To a wide cooperation among people and countriesTo a wide cooperation among people and countries• To a better and more efficient use of the energy sourcesTo a better and more efficient use of the energy sources

From the energy data the recommendations are:From the energy data the recommendations are:

• Decrease the oil dependenceDecrease the oil dependence• Diversify the energy mixDiversify the energy mix• Increase the RES use and improve the related technologiesIncrease the RES use and improve the related technologies

ADDITIONAL DATA

WEO 2005. Volume of Oil Stocks Needed to Ensure 90 Days of Net Imports in OECD Regions in the Reference Scenario