unesco advanced seminar: recent developments in … · and emergent, inertial and ... slide 39 c1...
TRANSCRIPT
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
UNESCO Advanced Seminar:
Recent Developmentsin Futures Thinking:
Connecting Foresight to Decision Making---------------------------
-------------------------------------------------------
Riel Millerxperidox futures consulting
UNESCOParis, July 1, 2009
Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©
Nous sommes encore aveugles au problème de la complexité. … Cet aveuglement fait partie de notre barbarie. Il nous fait comprendre que nous sommes toujours dans l’ère barbare des idées. Nous sommes toujours dans la préhistoire de l’esprit humain. Seule la pensée complexe nous permettrait de civiliser notre connaissance. Edgar MorinL’âge d’homme, 1986, p. 269‐274
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Outline• 9:30 – 10:30 Introduction – Overview of Futures Studies, Introduction to Recent Developments in Anticipatory Thinking and the Learning Intensive Soceity
• 10:45 – 11:30 Thinking about the Future in UNESCO and the Future of UNESCO
• 11:45 – 12:30 Introduction to Futures Literacy and the Link between Anticipation and Decision Making
• 12:30 – 13:00 Discussion of a Futures Literacy Agenda
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
What difference
does it make?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
• After all everyday life goes on.
• So why bother?– For truth?
– For imagination?
– For method?
– For potential?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
A bit of history• Industrial era – Wells, Verne…
• Cold war ‐ weapon systems and wars– contingency through simulation
– optimization through scenarios
– RAND Delphi for pooling expert knowledge; Herman Kahn for stories that could be used for contingency and optimization
– Futuribles in France, WFSF, Club of Rome, Shell Scenarios, OECD InterFutures Project, Japan’s 5th
Generation Computing, US Office of Technology Assessment, IPTS, EFMN, ForLearn
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
European Foresight
• Many national initiatives throughout Europe– Finland, Ireland, France, Germany, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, etc.
– Recent work by EFMN Mapping Foresight
• The Shift in Europe from Sector Specific to General Diffusion– Framework Programmes move from sector specific to general diffusion
– Future of Research in the ERA
– IPTS and FTA also move towards integration
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
• European Foresight Monitoring Network
• Rafael Popper and the team in Manchester
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Over time the FP’s focus extends to encompass more sectors and to seek joined up –
socio‐technical view of
technology
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Changes in the Conditions of Change: The Context for Futures Literacy
1. Changes in the way we think about the future – anticipatory systems
2. Changes in our collective capacity for spontaneity – the emergence of the Learning Intensive Society
3. Futures Literacy – connecting the future to decision making, leadership and policy innovation
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
1. Living with fundamental indeterminacy – an
emergent paradigm for anticipatory systems
Embracing complexity and fundamental indeterminacy – the present does NOT
determine the futurePhoto credit: Mark Schacter ©
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Anticipatory Systems are a Fundamental Attribute of Biology
S : object system
M : model of S
E : effector system
Source: Robert Rosen, Anticipatory Systems: Philosophical, Mathematical, & Methodological Foundations., Pergamon Press, Oxford, 1985.Slide by A. H. Louie, Mathematical Biologist
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Imagining the Future:
Distinguishing three
dimensions of the potential of the present
Optimization futures: chess, farming, assembly line
• Goal is given• Rules are given• Resources are given
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Exploratory futures: imagining the potential of the present
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Linking Ontology and EpistemologyAll Phenomena Contain Three Dimensions of Potential
• Contingent – the potential to be acted upon by an outside force– Functioning of AS: simulation and practice, learning by doing, early warning, transparency
• Optimization – the potential to be subject to control– Functioning of AS: Better calculation – models, projections, clarity and “certainty” of rules
• Exploratory – the potential to be without precedent,arising from inspiration, creativity and discovery– Functioning of AS: non‐teleological imagining of changes in the conditions of change, rigorous imagining and enhanced narrative capacities for spontaneity
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
How and why to engage in exploratory (non‐teleological)
anticipation?• Can we gain perspective?
• Can we use complexity?
• Developing “futures literacy” – the capacity to distinguish, create and use the distinct ontological dimensions of the potential of the present to generate multiple and constantly changing imaginary anticipatory stories
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Actualization, instantiation,
the simultaneity
of variably thick
presents in variable and
multiple chronotopoid
states
Cloud of latencyCloud of latency
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009Photo credit: Mark Schacter ©
Perpetual re-invention of the sense-making narratives of the thick present as it reassembles at each moment in swirling clouds of latent and emergent, inertial and spontaneous phenomena
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
2. Changes in the Conditions of Change
Imagining a Learning Intensive Society
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Macro-level definition of the LIS
Transition scale societal change involves:• Compositional change in the weight of
different sources of wealth creation… but what are other sources of wealth?
• An increase in the society wide average learning intensity of every day activity… but what is a more learning intensive
society?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Industrial(goods & services,public & private)
Craft/Creative
Household
Agriculture
Agricultural
IndustrialSociety
LearningSociety
Compositional TransformationShare of total wealth creation by source
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Metrics for learning intensity
Learning in every day life is more intense if people day-by-day, over a lifetime generate (flow) and accumulate (stock) more:
– know-how
– know-who
– know-what
– know-why
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
What is a learning intensive society?
Average intensity of know-whatAverage
intensity of know-how
Average intensity of know-who
Average intensity of know-why (decision making capacity)
Agricultural SocietyAgricultural Society Industrial SocietyIndustrial Society Learning SocietyLearning Society
c1
c2
c3
c4
Source: Riel Miller, XperidoX Futures Consulting; [email protected]
Slide 39
c1 Procedural knowledge (methods/processes)ccruz; 23/02/2007
c2 Declarative knowledge (facts)ccruz; 23/02/2007
c3 Networking knowledge (contacts, resources)ccruz; 23/02/2007
c4 Causal knowledge (foundations, reasons)ccruz; 23/02/2007
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Systemic Economic Transformation
“Next stage” of market economy – beyond mass‐production and mass‐consumption
• Nature of production & consumption• Organisational attributes of wealth
creation• Predominant type of economic activity• Scope of transaction systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Sequential Production, Consumption, Resource Deployment Process
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Micro-Evolution – process/product change
The Firm – Bounded Unit for Organising Production
Allo
cativ
e ch
oice
s
Entre
pren
euria
l spa
rk, i
nitia
tive,
ge
nius
, cha
nce Conceptual Labour
(imagination, design, choice, problem solving, assessment, evaluation – “management”, engineering)
Execution Labour (following plans, orders, routine, pre-determined tasks)
Physical inputs (raw materials, energy, transportation, physical infrastructure, machinery, etc.)
Startup
Tran
sact
ion
spac
es –
ex
chan
ge –
the
mom
ent
of tr
uth:
pric
e, sa
les a
nd
prof
it
Output Signals
To new sectors, new activities
Supply Demand
TIME
Redesign, new markets, new products, efficiency
Macro-Evolution – compositional change
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
US Army mobile rapid parts replacement pilot project
Castle Island, Worldwide Guide to Rapid Prototyping
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Users will design and create their own objects instead of shopping for existing products. Cybercrafting started in 1998 when students at MIT's How to Make (Almost) Anything course set outto fulfill their “individual desires rather than merely meeting mass-market needs."
Unbundled (individuals)
Top down
Personal creativity
Bundled (firms)
From Hierarchy to Heterarchy
Mass-era worker and consumer
Empowered team-worker,
informed shopper
Artist
Future consumer/ producer - cyber
creator
Unique Creation: Beyond supply & demandRiel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Clouds of value creation – transformation of the anticipatory conditions of the economy & society
The cornerstone of the Physiocratic doctrine was François Quesnay's(1759, 1766) axiom that only agriculture yielded a surplus -- what he called a produit net (net product). Manufacturing, the Physiocrats argued, took up as much value as inputs into production as it created in output, and consequently created no net product. http://cepa.newschool.edu/het/schools/physioc.htm
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
“The relative ease with which past developments can be rationalized after the fact is misleading. The evolution of the division of labor is a complex process we do not at all control, cannot predict, and only half understand. Yet, some of the emerging determinants that will change our world can be discerned. And one thing that can be said with considerable confidence is that the “stylized facts” … {of the industrial economy}…are not permanent features of our world.”Axel Leijonhufvud, The Individual, the Market and the Division of Labor in Society, Capitalism and Society, Volume 2, Issue 2 2007 Article 3, http://www.bepress.com/cas/vol2/iss2/art3
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Changing Composition of Output100%
80%
Perc
enta
ge S
hare
60%
40%
20%
0%1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Time
Industrial products Innovation (S&T/R&D)Personal products Creativity (Refinement of taste)
Systemic Social Transformation– Identity:
– Who am I? – How do I define myself?– Which networks, communities give me my sense of
identity?
– Choice:– What kinds of choices do I make?– How often do I make them?– When do I make the choices? – What is the range/depth of choice?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Hetero-geneous/small
Homo-geneous /large
Decisions - what, where, when,
with whom, how
Less choice
More choice
Scale of social
affiliation/identity
Identity & choice
Mass-era
Learning society
Beyond the dualism of individual vs collective
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Systemic Transformation of Governance
• Internalization not socialization
• Planning causes failure and fails to reduce risk
• Experimentalism not administration
• Learning by doingPhoto credit: Mark Schacter, www.luxetveritas.ca
Capacity to make & implement decisions
Experimentation & learning
Transparency & access to
information
Limited & fragmented
Extensive & unified
Mass-era
Learning society
Limited Continuous
Capacity for spontaneityRiel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
21st Century Transitions: Synergy Conditions and the Policy Challenge
02468
10Ease of use
Range of uses
Task unpredictability &predictability
Autonomy
Heterogeneity & smallerscale of affiliation
Extent of choices
Transparency & access toinformation
Experimentation & reflection
Mass-era Learning society
Technological dynamism
Economic dynamismSocial dynamism
Dynamic governance
Scale of the transition: towards a learning intensive society
• Wealth, rules, governance, values– Physical/financial vs human capital– Simple vs complex property rights– Ex-ante vs real-time allocation of power– Shared values as basis for transaction trust (Universal
Declaration of Human Rights)
• Quality of life– Mass production vs production for self/community– Life organized for work vs work organized for life– Hierarchy vs autonomy – Imposed identity vs self-generated identity– Sen’s definition of “freedom”
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Anticipation: Context makes a difference
Exploration
Degree of complexity
Complex
Degree of Openness
SimpleClosed Open
Optimization
(chess game)
When to simplify, forecast, plan and when to embrace complexity, imagination and spontaneity?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Less manageable – less clarity
of goal
More reflexivity
More manageable
– more clarity of
goalLess reflexivity
Greater freedom and ambiguity -spontaneity
Regime 1 (Agriculture)
Regime 2 (Industrial)
Regime 3 (Learning society)
Management/Optimization Contexts, Reflexivity and Freedom
Over time & in different contexts the appropriate mix of methods of anticipation change
Different contexts and times?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
“La condition humaine peut presque être résumée par l’observation selon laquelle, tandis que toutes les expériences relèvent du passé et que toutes les décisions portent sur l’avenir, l’image du futur est déterminante pour tout comportement privilégiant le choix. Le caractère et la qualité des images qui prédominent dans une société constituent en conséquence l’indice le plus important de sa dynamique globale.”Kenneth Boulding
UNESCO: Thinking about the Future
• How is foresight used at UNESCO?
• Has foresight played a role in policy formation, diffusion, innovation?
• What role do you see for foresight in UNESCO?
• What do you think about the future of UNESCO?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
• reconcile greater freedom with collective choices?
• embrace greater diversity without inviting fragmentation & chaos?
• foster greater creativity without increasing burn‐out & stress?
• inspire responsibility?
• motivate change without resorting to fear?
• manage risk without hierarchy?
• combine respect for complexity while still gaining depth of understanding?
New Motivating Questions for Decision Makers
FL: a deepening of our understanding of our anticipatory systems
• The capacity to distinguish different dimensions of the potential of the present and use the appropriate methods• The capacity to systematically and continuously engage in rigorous imagining • Continuously inventing and telling new stories about the potential of the present to enable improvisation and spontaneity.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Learning by doing• Level 1 futures literacy
– Temporal awareness, values, expectations
• Level–Rigorous
• Level– Strategic
Not “a method”,
2 futures literacy imagining
3 futures literacy scenarios
but a way of thinking and futures processes
about the learning take – mov
process that all futurists ing
to more refined anticipatory systems
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Deliberate Thinking: de Bono’s TEC method
Target and Task
Contract and
Conclude
Expand and
Explore
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Level 1 Futures Literacy
Temporal awareness, values, expectations
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Thinking about the future: How to select which stories to tell
Imaginable Futures
Potential futures
??
?
?
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Forecasting Oil Prices Fails: Shell – Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
The Good, The Bad & The Ugly
Global Warming:
Scenarios
Adopt Kyoto Agreement(good)
No agreements(bad)
Muddle through(ugly)
Human impact on climate
change reduced
Massive climate disruption
Moderate human induced
disruption of climate
Build composite scenarios combining trends & preferences
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
The Good, The Bad and The UglyBear Scenarios Knowledge
DrivenCommercially
DrivenMixed Model
Low rate of tech change
Low enrollement Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3growth
Scenario 5 Scenario 6Scenario 4Medium enrollment growth
Scenario 8 Scenario 9Scenario 7High Enrollment growth
High rate of tech change
Scenario 10 Scenario 11 Scenario 12Low enrollement growth
Scenario 13 Scenario 14 Scenario 15Medium enrollment growth
High Enrollment growth
Scenario 16 Scenario 17 Scenario 18
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Level 2 Futures Literacy“Rigorous Imagining”: How to link thinking about changes in the conditions of change (imaginary future outcomes) to
policy formation and implementation
1. Telling good stories – rules set the assumptions for the narrative frame
2. Rigorous imagining – a model sets parameters for the analytical frame
3. Form/function scenarios – operational stories within the frames (constrained iso‐probable, iso‐desirable)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Telling good stories –five narrative criteria for framing scenarios
1. Purpose/genre
2. Point‐of‐view
3. Temporal‐chronological frame
4. Protagonists
5. Causal rules – the “physics of the situation”
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
1. What is the type or purpose of the story?
Not tragedy or comedy, thriller or romance;
but basic types:
• contingency planning/simulation training
•optimisation testing
•discovery ‐ exploration ‐imagining
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
2. What is the point‐of‐view? Not first or third person, stream‐of‐consciousness or dialogue; but is the story told in terms of:
• the choices people make in their everyday lives (micro) or
• aggregate outcomes (macro) – or • both explicit relationship between micro &
macro
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
3. What is the temporal or chronological frame?
Not beginning, middle and end; but
• comparative static (two or more cross‐sections)
or
• dynamic/path (time‐series) or
• backcasting (reverse engineered)
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
4. Who are the main protagonists?
Not hero and villain; but who makes the decisions
• a specific institution (sub‐unit) or
• a social/economic system (nation, sector, etc.) or
• institutions nested within a dynamic
socio/economic context ‐ interaction
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
5. What rules apply to the action?
Not is time travel allowed or Matrix like
suspension of the rules of physics; but what
arethe assumptions that provide the
analytical definitions and causal
relationships that make for robust social
science.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Analytical Frame: using a possibility map to describe an
imagined future outcome?Select: topic, its attributes, its attributes in terms of change (variables)
An example: – Specific topic: electricity
–Dimension of change: pervasiveness
–Possibility space of pervasiveness:
a) ease‐of‐use
b) range‐of‐uses
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Technology possibility space
Ease of use
Simple
Difficult
Limited & homogeneous
Unlimited & heterogeneous
Range of uses
Electricity
Analytical Description of Imagined Outcomes
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Dual frame for the scenarios: analytical and narrative –then develop different
scenarios (ways of achieving the same outcome) within the frame (iso‐probable, iso‐
desirable)
Level 3 Futures Literacy
Strategic scenarios– Using the contrast between imagined futures and the present assumptions:
– Reintroduce values and expectations
– Focus on the assumptions and how choices are or are not consistent with present values and what is actionable now.
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
LEARNING SOCIETY
FORESIGHT
National Economic and Social Development Office NESDO
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
From vision to action
Diversity and level ofParticipation
A few decision-makers
Citizen participation
Large societaldebate
Stakeholder expert groups
Phase I:Diagnosis
Vision How to get there
+ recommendations
Measures, actionsDiagnosis
Phase II: Exploration
Phase III: Strategic orientation
Phase IV: Making choices
Phase V: Implementation and coordination
From vision to action
Diversity and level ofParticipation
A few decision-makers
Citizen participation
Large societaldebate
Stakeholder expert groups
A few decision-makers
Citizen participation
Large societaldebate
Stakeholder expert groups
Phase I:Diagnosis
Vision How to get there
+ recommendations
Measures, actionsDiagnosis Vision How to get there
+ recommendations
Measures, actionsDiagnosis
Phase II: Exploration
Phase III: Strategic orientation
Phase IV: Making choices
Phase V: Implementation and coordination
Da Costa, Foresight Impact on Policy Making, IPTS, 2006
HSSLevel 1
HSSLevel 2
HSSLevel 3
Hybrid Strategic Scenario Method for Developing Futures Literacy
Riel Miller, xperidox: futures consulting, 2009
Don’t build a bridge to nowhere (or look for keys lost in the park under the street light or get trapped by the success of models appropriate to the industrial era).
Instead of teleological planninguse anticipatory imagination to embrace greater complexity, heterogeneity, network density and capacity for spontaneity. Mine the potential of the present.