Underutilized Species and Climate Change: exploring the issues involved, scope for research and Bioversity’s possible role

Mikkel, Stefano, Irmgard, others

4 Feb 2008 - Bioversity Planning Week

Outline

1. Climate change: introduction

2. Agriculture and climate change: what we know

3. NUS and climate change: issues involved

4. Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role

Outline

1. Climate change: introduction

2. Agriculture and climate change: Agriculture and climate change: what we know what we know

3. NUS and climate change: NUS and climate change: issues involved issues involved

4. Bioversity NUS and CC: Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and roleresearch scope and role

Climate change is happening NOW and it is a reality

Most victims are poor, they loose more and recover less

Significant barriers, extra challenges to meet MDGs

Enhances existing risks and vulnerability of people

Flood, droughts, storm/cyclone, salinity intrusion etc destroys annual harvests of Asia and the Pacific

Vulnerability is highest in LDCs in the tropics and subtropical areas

Sources of Green House Gases

Energy SectorEnergy Sector• Energy Industry• Manufacturing Industries• Transport• Residential Sector• Commercial• Agriculture

Agriculture SectorAgriculture Sector• Crop Agriculture• Livestock and Manure Management-

Landuse Change and ForestryLanduse Change and Forestry• Conversion of Land• Consumption of Timber and Deforestation

Predicted Changes in Climate

Rainfall Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreased water availability and drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Temperature Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4°C from 1990 to 2100

(best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)

Sea level rise Sea levels are likely to rise in the range of 22-34 cm between 1990 and the

2080s

Extreme events Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become

more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation

Rahman and Alam, 2007

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report 2007:

Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres. Widespread decreases in glaciers and ice caps have contributed to sea level rise

Global average sea level rose at an average rate of 1.8 mm per year over 1961 to 2003.

Long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount over many large regions. Significantly increased precipitation has been observed in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.

Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet

Marr Glacier in Antarctica

Outline

1. Climate change: Climate change: introduction introduction

2. Agriculture and climate change: what we know

3. NUS and climate change: issues involved NUS and climate change: issues involved

4. Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and roleBioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role

The impact on agriculture will vary greatly over time and across locations, depending on agro-ecologies, production systems and plant/animal sp

Climate change will cause shifts in areas suitable for cultivation of many crops (N.USA, Canada and most of Europe increase in suitable area),

Significant losses of genetic resources in several regions

Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean will lose suitable land – countries with least capacity to cope with climate change..

Bolivia. Source: Annie Lane

Modeling climate change impacts on major crops

• To identify crops and regions most afflicted by climate change

• The Ecocrop model (http://ecocrop.fao.org/) used as base analyzed against two future downscaled GCM output models: HADCM3 model and CCCMA model

• Examine the global changes in suitability for 43 ‘Annex 1’ listed crops of the FAO International Treaty, plus groundnut, soybean, sugar cane

Average changes in

suitability for the HADCM3

model (top) and CCCMA

model (bottom).

Blue = increase in suitability

Red = reduction in

suitability.

Crops includeAnnex 1 of ITPGRFA

Other cash crops

Crops to be affected:

23 crops likely to suffer significant

decreases in suitable areas on av.:

typically cold weather crops, including strawberry (32%), wheat (18%), rye (16%), apple (12%), oats (12%) (Annex 1).

20 crops likely to gain in

suitable areas:– The biggest gains are for

pearl millet (31%), sunflower (18%), common millet (16%), chick pea (15%) and soya bean (14%),

Crops expected to gain:

Many of the “gains” occur in regions where these crops are currently not integral component of food-security

Overall, suitable area for crop cultivation is projected to increase...

Country to gain: Finlandclimate warming forecasts

in south-central areas

2020 2050 2100Yearly av. Temp. +1,2C +2,4C +4,4C

Yearly rainfall +3% +6% +11%

Yearly growth period extended by 4 weeks.

Effective growth temperature sum increasing 25%.

Winter days with snow cover decreasing 20-40%.

General climate becomes more maritime.

by 2050:

Outline

1. Climate change: Climate change: introduction introduction

2. Agriculture and climate change: Agriculture and climate change: what we knowwhat we know

3. NUS and climate change: issues involved

4. Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and roleBioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role

Represented mostly by wild species, ecotypes, landraces

Local importance in consumption and production systems

Highly adapted to agro-ecological niches/marginal areas

Little attention by National Policies, R&D

Poor documentation (distribution, biology, cultivation, uses)

Non existent/poorly organized marketing & “filiere”

Cultivated and utilized relying on Indigenous Knowledge

Scarcely represented in ex situ germplasm collections

Maintained mainly through in situ /on-farm conservation

Characterized by non existent/fragile seed supply systems

Characterized by multiple uses

Why NUS in the context of CC?

Traditional societies deploy strategies that use genetic diversity to reduce risks and mitigate impacts of long term environmental change: Sahelian, Andean, Himalayan farmers plant many crops and crop varieties that allow them to adjust planting dates and crop mixtures to erratic rainfall patterns, e.g. sorghum, millets and fonio, floating rice African rice.

Bambara groundnut

(Vigna subterranea)

Fonio (Digitaria exilis), Bamako market (Mali).

Kreb (mixture of a dozen cereals such as Eragrostis tef, Echinocloa spp., Panicum spp.).

Fonio in Bamako (Mali)

Vigna marina

(Iñhaca island, Mozambique)

Andean grains

quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa) cañihua (C. pallidicaule)amaranth (Amaranthus caudatus) lupin (Lupinus album)

Ghana: 2,500 useful

Kenya: 800 food species

Sahel: 800 edible

Swaziland: 200 edible

India: 2,500 medicinal

North America:

1,112 edible

Mediterranean: 137 vegetables

Malaysia: 800 fruit trees

China: 5,000 medicinal

Peru: 168 home gardens

RICH but POORLY EXPLOITED NATIONAL ENDOWMENTS

Outline

1. Climate change: Climate change: introduction introduction

2. Agriculture and climate change: Agriculture and climate change: what we knowwhat we know

3. NUS and climate change: issues involved NUS and climate change: issues involved

4. Bioversity NUS and CC: research scope and role

NUS are widely recognized to provide essential livelihood options to the poor and

marginal farmers. Their adaptability and resilience to stresses provide farmers with needed coping strategies to confront with

climate changes.

Rationale

1. Research: as leading Agency working on NUS need to fill important knowledge gap re NUS and their roles in CC scenarios;

2. Conservation: Changes in land use due to climate change may further marginalize NUS – currently not attractive from an economic perspective and with no ready-to-use enhancement packages;

3. Livelihood: Because of their very limited conservation, documentation (incl. IK) and poor seed systems, CC would certainly accelerate the loss of their genetic diversity and exacerbates reduction of livelihood options among the poor;

Justification

IPCC First Assessment

Report - 1990

IPCC Second Assessment

Report - 1995

IPCC Third Assessment

Report - 2001

IPCC Fourth Assessment

Report - 2007

Climate+ Impacts

(Cost-effectiveness)

Climate+ Impacts

Cost-effectiveness

(Equity)

Climate+ Impacts

Cost-effectiveness

Equity

(Alternative Development

Pathway)

Climate+ Impacts

Cost-effectiveness

Equity

Alternative Development

Pathway

(Sustainable Development)

Najam et al., 2003 and Alam, 2007

Changes of cropping patterns:

Plant two or more crops instead of one or a spring and fall crop with a short fallow period to avoid excessive heat and drought in midsummer.

New crop and SPECIES varieties: to address flood, drought and saline tolerant varieties

Example of current adaptation in Bangladesh

Examples from Bangladesh

Increase income through alternative livelihoods usinglocal species: Vegetable farmingHousehold level nurseries

Floating gardens/farming

Examples from Bangladesh

Research issues / objectives

• Confirm hypothesis of comparative advantages of NUS in drier, saline, marginal areas (answer the many WHICH? WHERE? HOW?);

• Assess impact of CC on genetic diversity distribution patterns and use management of NUS;

• Develop methods and tools to assist partners in deployment of NUS in adaptation, mitigation and risk coping strategies.

Opportunities

1. Possible launching in 2008 of new entity (“Crops for the Future”) that would continue GFU mission.

2. Interest by the Spanish to support Conference on NUS and climate change late this year in Cordoba.

3. Current finalization of System Priority 1B (dealing with NUS).

4. Take advantage of possible dedicated project to develop framework to conserve NUS diversity and IK

5. Raise visibility of NUS to influence relevant policies (a new Treaty for NUS?)

6. Link to existing work on CWR and Forest spp. (EUFORGEN) and IFAD-NUS (prepare way for IFAD NUS III to focus on CC?)

Enhancing use through greater competitiveness: availability of new technologies and opening-up of new markets will allow people to move into marginal areas previously less populated where NUS are better suited...

Conclusions

Areas so far occupied by major crops will shift as a result of climate change and these can be used for more adaptable NUS;

International community needs findings to support hypothesis- Bioversity well positioned to tackle research challenge;

Work to link with existing efforts- not starting from scratch!

Momentum that favors research in this direction Africa should deserve greater focus Cordoba Conference could help strategizing Assessing diversity & CC, suitable policies,

empowering community as pillars of work