understanding risks to cultural property · 2016-05-04 · watch out & be careful ... many risk...
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2015-10-13 1
Robert WallerProtect Heritage Corp.
2015 September
UNDERSTANDING RISKSto
CULTURAL PROPERTY
International Institutefor Conservation of
Historic and Artistic Works
This presentation
Is:
• Why a risk-based approach
• Introduction to basic concepts
Is not:
• Detailed instructions on quantifying risks
• All approaches
We all take risks every day
• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Degrees of risk awareness
• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Degrees of risk awareness
• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Degrees of risk awareness
• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA or PRA)
Degrees of risk awareness
• Watch out & Be careful• Basic checklists• Scored checklists• Quantitative risk analysis (QRA)
Degrees of risk awareness
Diverse Collections
My wake up moment
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Define context and scope Identify risks Determine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Define context, goal, and scope Identify risks Determine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Need: A clear common goal
The Risks 21172017
21172017
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Define context and scope Identify risks Determine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)
Identify and define risks
Agents of change Physical forces Fire Water Criminals Pests Contaminants Light, UV, radiation Incorrect temperature Incorrect relative humidity Dissociation
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Frequency
Seve
rity
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Disaster Incident Process
< 1 per100 years
> 1 peryear
A few per decade or
century
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Identify risks: define clearly
Source Path Effect
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Specific Risks Considered Earthquake → Shelf collapse → Breakage
Earthquake → Toppling object → Breakage
Handling in use → Accident → Physical damage
Gravity → Poor support → Distortion
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Define context and scope Identify risksDetermine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
What do I think the chances are?
• Coin toss – heads or tails?
• Probable• Slight chance• Unlikely• Highly probable
Unlikely“unlikely that an accidental surface or subsurface oil spill
would occur from the proposed activities.”
BP's 52-page exploration plan for the Deepwater Horizon Well
Filed with the federal Minerals Management Service
Quantify risk
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
MR(Risk) = FS × LV × P × Ewhere:
FS ⇒ Fraction SusceptibleLV ⇒ Loss in ValueP ⇒ ProbabilityE ⇒ Extent
0.000001
0.0001
0.01
1
Ris
k /C
entu
ryH
uge
rang
e
1/1,000or
1/1,000,000
27.1234or
27.1232
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
MR = FSxLVxPxE
MR = FSxLVxPxE
MR = FSxLVxPxE
MR = FSxLVxPxE
The Forest
0.000001
0.0001
0.01
1
Ris
k /C
entu
ry
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Risk profile by collection unitsCultural Property Risk Analysis Model
0.000001
0.0001
0.01
1
The ForestR
isk
/Cen
tury
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Risk profile by generic riskCultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Vilfredo Pareto1848 - 1923
Pareto distribution
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
Each risk
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
Pareto distribution with total
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
90 60 30
Pareto distributionmanage risks 1, 2, 3
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
90 60 30
Pareto distributionmanage risks 7, 12, 17
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
9060 30
Pareto distributionmanage risks 13, 8, 15
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
90 60 30
Pareto distributionmanage risks 18, 19, 20
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
9060
30
Pareto distributionmanage risks 8, 2, 17
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
906030
Pareto distributionmanage risks 16, 14, 8
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
906030
Pareto distributionmanage risks 19, 6, 3
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Each risk
Mag
nitu
de o
f ris
k
90 60 30
Pareto distributionmanage risks 1, 2, 3
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model
Define context and scope Identify risks Determine expected losseso Evaluate risks (Thursday)o Manage risks (Thursday)
Cultural Property Risk Analysis Model