understanding regional dynamics: implications for social
TRANSCRIPT
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM
Metropolitan Policy ProgramBruce Katz, Director
The Brookings Institution
Understanding Regional Dynamics: Implications for Social and Economic Justice
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM
There are profound demographic and market changes taking place in the United States
Understanding Regional Dynamics: Implications for Social and Economic Justice
I
These forces are giving cities and first suburbs the best chance to compete in decades
II
But the resurgence of U.S. urban places is incomplete…and presents challenges for social and economic justice
III
THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION METROPOLITAN POLICY PROGRAM
There are profound demographic and market changes taking place in the United StatesI
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33 mil.
22 mil. 23 mil. 24 mil.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000
Millions of persons
U.S. population growth in the 1990s was much stronger than in previous decades
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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34.7%
65.3%Net ImmigrationNatural Increase
Components of population change, 1990-2000
Immigration explains a large portion of this population growth
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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34 million foreign-born now live in the U.S.; 12 percent of the population
That is the largest absolute number in U.S. history
And highest share since 1930
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6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%
<5
85+Male Female
6% 4% 2% - 2% 4% 6%
<5
85+Male Female
1970 2020
Share of Population in Age Groups
As America grows it is also aging
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Household formation is also changing:Men and women are delaying marriage
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
Men
Women
Median Age at Marriage
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Families are having fewer children
80%
10%10%
65%
18% 17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
No children 1 child 2+ Children
1976
2002
Births Ever to Women Age 40-44Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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The combination of these trends means that the household size is declining
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
Hous
ehol
d Si
ze
Household change, 1950-2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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All Families w/ children 36.6% 32.8% 28.2%
All Families w/o children 33.7% 35.3% 39.7%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
And the share of families with children in the population is declining
1990 2000 2020
Percentage change, Families with children & Projected, 1990-2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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At the same time, the country is going through a period ofunprecedented economic transformation
22% 19%
32%
11%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Manufacturing Services
19702000
U.S. Employment Shares
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The U.S. economy continues to transition from manufacturing to services
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The volume of traded goods and services is growing exponentially
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Exports of Goods
Exports of Services
Imports of GoodsImports of Services
Billions of Constant (2000) DollarsSource: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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Globalization is forcing firms to focus on core competencies and outsource routine business activities
Percent of Companies Outsourcing Services, 2000Source: Outsourcing Institute
5%
6%
7%
7%
10%
9%
15%
20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
IT
Administration
Distribution
Human Resources
Manufacturing
Customer Service
Marketing
Transportation
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All these changes are placing a high premium on education and skills
Percentage of Workers with a College Degree or Higher, select occupations, 2002Source: National Education and Attainment, National Bureau of Labor
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
Manage
ment
Arts/m
edia
Busines
s/Finan
ce
Archite
cture/
Engine
er.
Computer/M
ath.
Healthca
re Prac
tione
rsEdu
catio
nLe
gal O
ccup
s.Lif
e sicie
ncesPe
rcen
t with
col
lege
deg
ree
or h
ighe
r
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And on continuous innovation
1315
18
02468
101214161820
1998 2003 2006
From R&D to Market
Source: Ned Hill. "Innovation and Economic Development." Presentation to the National Governors Association
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$250
$500
$750
$1,000
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
In the 1990s, steady growth and prudent fiscal policy kept interest rates low, fueling development
Interest Rates DevelopmentConstruction Put in Place (Billions of Dollars)
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
3-Month Treasury Bills
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While over the next 30 years, billions of additional square feetis projected to be developed or replaced
By 2030, about half of the buildings in which Americans live, work, and shop will have been built after 2000.
• By 2030, the nation will need about 427 billion square feet of built space to accommodate growth projections.
• About 82 billion of that will be from replacement of existing space and 131 will be new space.
- Source: Arthur C. Nelson, 2005
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These forces are giving cities and first suburbs the best chance to compete in decadesII
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First, a definition of cities and first suburbs
Nationally 45% of population live in cities and first suburbs
Breakdown of U.S. population by type of geography, 2000
Cities:
• Cities for this effort are defined as major population areas with a population over 100,000
First Suburbs:
• First suburbs are the “inner-ring” of suburbs that developed before the wave of suburban growth of the past 50 years
• There are 64 first suburban counties identified throughout the U.S.
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Demographic changes give cities and first suburbs achance to compete for new residents and their consumption
• Young professionals
• Childless couples
• Baby-boomers
• New immigrants
• Empty nesters
• Elderly individuals
• Families with children?
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Single family housing
This growing and diverse population desires a range of choices in housing…
Apartments for rentMulti-family housing
Assisted living
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Urban neighborhoods downtown
A range of choices in neighborhoods that are walkable…
Historic neighborhoods
Neighborhoods with mixed density
Single family neighborhoods
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A number of main streets
Downtown Big box
A range of choices for shopping
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Fixed railWalking and biking
And a range of choices in transportation
Bus Automobile
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These changes and choices have already led to a population surge in urban areas
9.8%6.3%
-1.6%-2%
2%
6%
10%
14%
1970s 1980s 1990s
Population Growth in 50 largest cities, 1970-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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And in first suburbs
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
1950
s19
60s
1970
s19
80s
1990
s20
00s
Pop
ulat
ion
Population in First Suburbs, 1950-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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These changes and choices have also contributed to the downtown revitalization in cities
Absolute change in population, 1990-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
02000400060008000
10000120001400016000
Atlanta
Clevela
nd
Denve
r
Seattle
Philad
elphia
Housto
n
Chicag
oPo
pula
tion
chan
ge
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And in the core areas of many first suburbs
Percent change in population, 1990-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%60.00%70.00%
King C
ounty
, WA
Kirklan
dHud
son C
ounty
, NJ
Gutten
berg
Henne
pin C
ounty
, MN
Brookly
n Park
Fulto
n Cou
nty, G
ARos
well
Perc
ent c
hang
e
First suburb county
Corresponding municipality
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01,0
002,0
003,0
004,0
005,0
006,0
007,0
008,0
009,0
0010
,000
11,00
0
Total US
Central City
Suburbs
Non Metropolitan
Population (in thousands)
2000 1990
Source: Paul Jargowsky, “Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s” 2003
The number of people living in high poverty neighborhoods declined during the 1990s
Population of high-poverty neighborhoods by location, 1990-2000
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There are also other characteristics that give cities and first suburbs a unique niche
• Density
• Amenities
• Educational and medical facilities
• Multicultural diversity
• Built infrastructure
• Creativity
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Density gives them a competitive niche because the rules of the economy have changed
• Average labor productivity increases with employment density
• Density contributes to innovation by attracting young educated workers
• Dense labor markets and high clustering of jobs leads to knowledge spillovers
• Dense local economies are linked to increased patenting
Boston
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Urban amenities give them a competitive niche because they attract workers and tourists
Mix of restaurants, services, and retail Entertainment
TourismCultural amenitiesSeattle Art Museum
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A concentration of research institutions give cities and first suburbs an advantage in the Knowledge Economy
Purchaser: Redirect institutional purchasing towards local businesses
Network builder: Channel university expertise to increase local business capacity
Real estate developer: Use real estate to anchor growth
Work force developer: Address local/regional resource needs
Employer: Offer employment to local residents
Incubator: Offer services to support start ups
Penn State
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Cities and first suburbs also attract artists
27.824321903Pittsburgh
43.261954326Dallas-Ft Worth
51.649373256Seattle-Takoma
58.547833018Minneapolis-St Paul
71.247382767Atlanta
94.732111649Cleveland-Akron
% Change
19901980
Arts employment, Selected metro areas, 1980-1990
Source: “Targeting Occupations in Regional and Community Economic Development, Ann Markusen, October 2002
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And they have become multicultural centers
38%
43%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Hispanic Asian
Percent change in population, 1990-2000100 largest cities
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Development is also more cost effective since basic infrastructure has already been paid for
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
$20,000
Low-DensitySprawl
Low-DensityPlanned
Sprawl Mix Planned Mix High-DensityPlanned
Community Prototypes (10,000 units)
UtilitiesRoads/StreetsPublic FacilitiesSchoolsRecreation
Estimated cost savings by community prototypeSource: Real Estate Research Corporation , 1974
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But the resurgence of U.S. urban places is incomplete…and presents challenges for social and economic justiceIII
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The resurgence of U.S. urban places is incomplete
Decentralization remains a dominant growth pattern
A portion of U.S. cities continue to decline
State and federal policies remain anti-urban
The legacies of institutional racism and concentrated poverty persist
Other structural barriers to revitalization remain
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4%
19%
7%9%
44%
16%18%
6%
37%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Atlanta Chicago Denver Memphis Top 100
City Suburbs
Despite city growth, population is decentralizing in nearly every U.S. metropolitan area
Selected cities and suburbs, population growth 1990-2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Some cities continue to experience population decline
Population growth, 1990-2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-13% -12% -12%
-4%
10%
-15%-10%
-5%0%5%
10%15%
Hartford city,Connecticut
Baltimore city,Maryland
St. Louis city,Missouri
Philadelphiacity,
PennsylvaniaTop 100
Cities
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Major federal and state policies continue to facilitate sprawl
Subsidized housing policies reinforce concentrated poverty
The fiscal playing field is uneven between older and newer communities
Transportation funding is still geared toward highway expansion
Governmental fragmentation reinforces the growth of newer communities
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Source: Current Population Survey, 2002
19%
9%
17%
9%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Central City Suburbs
1990 2002
Poverty rates in central cities have declined over the 1990s, while poverty rates in the suburbs have increased slightly
Poverty rates for central cities and suburbs, 1990-2001
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01,0
002,0
003,0
004,0
005,0
006,0
007,0
008,0
009,0
0010
,000
11,00
0
Total US
Central City
Suburbs
Non Metropolitan
Population (in thousands)
2000 1990
Source: Paul Jargowsky, “Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s” 2003
But the number of people living in high poverty neighborhoods declined during the 1990s
Population of high-poverty neighborhoods by location, 1990-2000
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In many cities, the physical landscape has not yet capitalizedon downtown assets
East St. Louis, Illinois
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The resurgence of urban places presents challenges for social and economic justice
Urban recovery places pressures on housing prices
There is a mismatch between the skills of low wage residents and the knowledge jobs being created in cities
The decline in city poverty is accompanied by the rise in First Suburban poverty
Cities are more focused on attracting young professionals than on growing a middle class
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Peak 3-Year Rise in Home Prices53%55%43%38%46%40%45%
Urban recovery places pressure on housing prices
Source: FDIC, 2005
Hot markets have led to skyrocketing real estate values in urban areas across the country
Metro AreaLos AngelesSan DiegoLas VegasBostonProvidenceWashington, DCMiami
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0.0%
1.0%
2.0%3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
1970 1980 1990 2000
Increased First Suburban concentrated poverty accompanied a decline in city poverty
Source: Brookings Analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data; Geolytics Neighborhood Change Database (NCDB)
Percent of Census tracts in First Suburbs with poverty rates of 20%, 30%, and 40% or higher, 1970-2000
2.7%
4.7%
6.6%
8.4%
Tracts with 30% poverty rate
Tracts with 40% poverty rate
Tracts with 20% poverty rate
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Spatial mismatch means that city residents do not have equal access to the city’s knowledge jobsBaltimore spatial mismatch, 2000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
0% 15% 30% 45%
Share of city residents who work inknowledge economy jobs
Share of jobs located in Baltimore Citythat are knowledge economy jobs
City's share of metro's knowledgeeconomy jobs
City's share of metro's total employment
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Cities are more focused on attracting young professionals than on growing a middle class
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A new urban agenda is needed that transforms the economic, physical, and social landscape of cities and older suburbs
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Grow the Middle Class
4
FIX THE BASICS
1
Build on Assets
2
Influence Metropolitan Growth
5
Create Neighborhoods
of Choice
3
The New Competitive Cities Agenda
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www.brookings.edu/metro