Under the Volcano: Discussing Disasters in Japan

TIM ALLEN

Between 27 September and 3 October 1990 the “International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction International Confer- ence, 1990” took place in Yokohama and Kagoshima. Until the 29th September, the 500 participants were accommodated in a spectacular, recently opened hotel perched on a hill (impressively reinforced against land-slides and earth tremors) overlooking the busy Yokohama harbour. The city of Yokohama, like Tokyo to the north, is situated on a major earthquake fault. It suffered serious damage in the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923 and has been affected by several subsequent natural calamities, but has nevertheless continued to thrive.

The second part of the conference was held at Kagoshima, a city located just 4 km from Sakurajima, one of the country’s most active volcanoes. From our hotel we could see great clouds of volcanic dust being periodically ejected from the top of the mountain. When the wind was in the right direction, it slowly drifted across the bay and settled on the city. Here, according to the conference programme, the people ”are currently devoting all their energy towards better coexistence between human beings and volcanoes”. One could well recognize the need.

On arrival in Yokohama we were issued with a video to watch in our rooms which catalogued the 28 major natural disasters in

Japan between 1926 and 1989, referred to the ”growing sophistication of acts of God”, and listed the estimated financial cost and number of dead for each catastrophy. We were left in no doubt that we had arrived in a disaster-prone country but, as the video and accompanying literature also indicated, one that had made great progress in devel- oping advanced mitigation techniques, and was eager to share this knowledge with other countries.

For some time, well before the country became the World’s largest bilateral aid donor, Japan has been emphasising the need for international cooperation in disaster counter-measures, and has been enthusiastic about setting up the IDNDR. The idea of an IDNDR was originally pro- posed in 1984, and adopted as a resolution by the 42nd General Assembly of the United Nations. During the following years, domestic committees in different countries were established to promote the concept, and it was eventually agreed to start the decade from this year. The 2nd Wednesday of October each year is designated International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction, and the conference in Japan was planned to launch the Decade and exchange information and experiences in disaster counter-measures. Conference participants included representatives of UN agencies and other international organizations

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engaged in disaster prevention and management, as well as policy planners, administrators and researchers.

For someone who had never been to one of these functions before, nor visited Japan, there were several aspects of the occasion which were quite extraordinary. It was all much more formal than I had anticipated. Every meal was a lavish banquet, tables groaning with exotic and more homely cuisines, prepared for all tastes. Presentations and outings were run with a clockwork precision which was awesome for a resident of England who researches in Africa. Even the typhoon which hit the coast the day before we were all flown to Kagoshima made no impact on the time keeping. (Some participants were heard to speculate that this event had also been carefully planned in advance). There were no Japanese women participants, which was surprising since many of those who have died in Japanese earthquakes were women caught in kitchen fires. The handful of women from overseas, and female members of the administrative secretariate, stood out dramatically in their coloured clothes from the endless rows of grey-suited men.

Most striking of all was the seriousness with which the conference was taken in the country. The Crown Prince and the Prime Minister made speeches at the opening ceremony, a telegram of greetings to participants had been elicited from President Bush (with additional best wishes from Barbara), television cameras were ever present and an IDNDR commemorative postage stamp was issued. It is hard to imagine anything other than a royal wedding causing such a stir in Britain, but then of course, with the exception of the occasional hurricane, the British are not directly affected by the phenomena we had gathered to discuss.

Given the ceremonial nature of much of the proceedings, it is not surprising that the innumerable 15 minute presentations,

followed by brief comments from discus- sants, did not really add up to a learning experience. Many participants did no more than express support for the IDNDR on behalf of their country or organization, and give a brief overview of what they were doing or hoped to do.

Some of the more interesting papers dwelt on the impact of the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake in the San Fransisco Bay area, emphasising that it was a far less serious quake than was suggested in the media. In financial terms its cost was considerable, but not enough to affect significantly the national economy, and there was relatively little loss of life. Only in part was this due to counter-measures. There were many buildings which should have been con- structed to withstand a major earthquake which collapsed, and the general message was that disaster preparedness in the US was not adequate. California in particular does not seem to be ready for "The Big One", predicted in the next few years.

The situation in Japan appears to be better in this respect. The number of people dying from natural disasters has fallen dramatically since the Isewan Typhoon of 1959, and is now less than 200 per year. It was highlighted, however, that Japan has not been affected by a very big earthquake for a long time and if one occurred in the Tokyo area the effect could be considerable. This is because Tokyo combines a concen- trated population with key commercial, industrial and administrative centres, Kenji Mitzutani, of the Tokai Bank, estimated that if an earthquake occurred of similar severity to the Great Kanto Earthquake, the cost could amount to as much as 20 per cent of the national economy, and could have far- reaching ramifications, possibly triggering a world recession.

Leaving aside financial considerations, many participants also noted that it is usually not the natural phenomena themselves which kill, but the fact that buildings fall on people, and that there is

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often a lack of rapid assistance provided in the aftermath. It is very difficult to find funds for expensive measures to mitigate the effects of a potential disaster which may not occur for years, and often money is only forthcoming after the event. This is not good enough, and clearly there is a need for public education and for legal measures to be introduced which ensure that safety standards are maintained.

To some extent the brevity of the presentations and paucity of information communicated was compensated for by the networking possible at such a large international gathering. When I asked one representative from a poor country what he had gained from the meeting, he replied that now he knew who to ring up at the World Bank when he needed money. Of course it was also fascinating to find out about Japan and no doubt the conference achieved its objectives in terms of publicity, but I did come away wondering if the emphasis on technological and adminis- trative responses to rapid onset calamaties, the primary concern of the majority of the participants, is really an adequate focus for the Decade.

It is understandable that achievable goals should be set and there is no doubt that the transfer of skills and resources developed to mitigate the effects of earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, volcanic eruptions, floods and tsunami in Japan and elsewhere is a laudable objective for international cooperation and probably also for aid funding. But, there seemed to be an undue emphasis in Yokohama and Kagoshima on such matters as insuring property on an earthquake fault, and con- structing bridges which do not break in the

middle. The relative lack of interest in sociological and public health aspects of disaster management was worrying and so was the neglect of slow onset disasters, like famines and chronic food shortage linked to drought and ecological decay.

Confronting the problem of slow onset disaster raises intractable issues, linked to political factors which may be difficult to debate in an international forum. Yet it surely needs to be persistently highlighted as a cause for concern, for thousands more people die as a consequence of crop failure each year than are killed by rapid onset disasters in a decade. It was tragically farcical to hear a participant from Sudan talking about ways of forecasting locust infestations. His government has recently been exporting food stocks at a time when 90 per cent crop failure due to drought has been reported in large parts of the country- side, and the population faces a situation as serious as that in 1985. One of the other African participants at the conference, Costantinos Berhe of the Ethiopian Red Cross Society, did draw attention to the appalling effects of drought, and I tried to do so at a seminar attended by some participants immediately following the conference. But we very much had the feeling of crying in the wilderness, for this was not what delegates had come to hear.

Tim Allen The Open University Walton Hall Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA UK

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