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APEX 39CAPE Priorities & Opportunities

Jamie MorinOSD CAPE

9 September 2014PLCC B6

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• Introduction to CAPE

• PPBE Process & Building PB15

• PB15 Summary

• New Defense Strategy

• Expected Themes in PB16

• End Game Speculation

• Continuing Challenges

2

Agenda

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• Independent advisor to SECDEF and DEPSECDEF on programmatic resource allocation issues and decisions

• Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara established “Systems Analysis” in 1961 (McNamara’s “Whiz Kids”) to analyze nearly every aspect of the DoD budget

• Name changed to Program Analysis & Evaluation (PA&E) in 1970s

• Weapons Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 changed the name to Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation (CAPE)– Focus on reducing cost overruns and schedule delays (ICEs, AoAs, etc.)

• Play a key role in the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, & Execution (PPBE) process– Links the defense strategy to resources– “Big P” versus “little p”

3

Introduction to CAPE

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• CAPE’s focus is on FY16 and beyond (informed by what’s happening today

• Strategic Choices & Management Review (SCMR) was completed in the summer– Provided insight that was used to adjust Service toplines in fiscal guidance

• Fiscal guidance emphasized that we have less of a need for large ground forces, but that we should protect forces needed for Asia/Pacific conflicts

4

PPBE Process & Building PB15

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• Navy– Efficiencies– Cruiser modifications (innovative)

• Air Force– Cut A-10s and legacy modification; Protected F-35, Tanker & Bomber– KC-10s

• Army– GCV– Helo restructure– Force structure targets

• Marine Corps– Focused on readiness

5

PB15 Summary

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PB15 ToplineWe’re still living with uncertainty

$450

$475

$500

$525

$550

$575

$600

$625

$650

FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24

($Bi

llion

s)

$26BFund What do we know?

•Continuing Resolution•Election year•New defense strategy•Reduced reliance on OCO What don’t we know?•No new budget deal•What topline OMB will submit•How to address unfunded $$•Long term health of force

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• QDR & PB15 Strategy

• Attempt to measure delta in sequestration in terms of the strategy

• Secretary’s speech suggests a much less capable force– How much less capable?– In what areas?– What can we do about it?– How do we maximize the performance of a sequestered force?

7

New Defense Strategy

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• Budget disconnects

• Uncertainties– Topline levels– BRAC authority– Compensation– Other unknowns

• What we know– Continuing Resolution likely in the fall– Elections this fall– Debt ceiling suspended until March 2015

• What we DON’T know– No new budget deal– Long term health of force (depends on where we are in the out-years)

8

Expected Themes in PB16

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• Submit a higher, non-sequestered budget level

• Need a plan to prepare a budget at at sequestered budget levels if we do not get the topline we want

9

End Game Speculation

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Balancing Challenges

Fiscal Uncertainty•Topline•Timing•OCO•Action on prior requests

Internal Cost Pressures•People•Acquisition•Operations and Support

Strategic & Operational Challenges•Shift to Asia – away game, geography, & A2AD•EM Spectrum Dominance•Commercial technological pacing vs DoD OODA Loop•Adversary cost imposition

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BACKUP

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CAPE Org Chart

DIRECTOR, CAPEJamie M. Morin

Principal Deputy DirectorLtGen Robert E. Schmidle Jr.

Land ForcesNaval ForcesTactical Air ForcesProjection ForcesIrregular WarfareC4 and Information ProgramsStrategic Defensive & Space PrgmsForce and Infrastructure AnalysisIntelligence, Surveillance, & Rec.

Program EvaluationDeputy Director

Scott Comes

FrontOfficeTeam

Economic and Manpower AnalysisWeapon Systems Cost AnalysisAdvanced Systems Cost AnalysisOperating and Support Cost Analysis

Analysis & IntegrationDeputy Director

Vacant

Program AnalysisSimulation Analysis CenterForce Structure & Risk Assessment

Program, Data, & Enterprise Services

Deputy DirectorJoseph Nogueira

Enterprise ServicesJoint Data SupportProgram Resources & Information Systems Management

Cost AssessmentDeputy Director

Rick Burke