uncertainty quantification – me470 lecture one
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Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One. Paul Constantine March 29, 2011. What is UQ???. Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system . (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs). - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Uncertainty Quantification – ME470Lecture One
Paul ConstantineMarch 29, 2011
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What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system. (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs)
Uncertainty quantification attempts to express the known unknowns. (Bill Oberkampf – Sandia National Labs)UQ is about providing bounds on our knowledge of system behavior and on confidence in our predictions.(Omar Knio – Johns Hopkins University)
![Page 3: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system. (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs)
Uncertainty quantification attempts to express the known unknowns. (Bill Oberkampf – Sandia National Labs)UQ is about providing bounds on our knowledge of system behavior and on confidence in our predictions.(Omar Knio – Johns Hopkins University)
![Page 4: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert judgment to make inferences about a physical system. (David Higdon – Los Alamos National Labs)
Uncertainty quantification attempts to express the known unknowns. (Bill Oberkampf – Sandia National Labs)UQ is about providing bounds on our knowledge of system behavior and on confidence in our predictions.(Omar Knio – Johns Hopkins University)
![Page 5: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
UQ is the difference between success and failure.(Gianluca Iaccarino – Stanford University)
UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (Dongbin Xiu – Purdue University)
Counting sh*t you can’t see.(Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas)
Man – that’s a hard question!!(Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs)
![Page 6: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
UQ is the difference between success and failure.(Gianluca Iaccarino – Stanford University)
UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (Dongbin Xiu – Purdue University)
Counting sh*t you can’t see.(Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas)
Man – that’s a hard question!!(Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs)
![Page 7: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
UQ is the difference between success and failure.(Gianluca Iaccarino – Stanford University)
UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (Dongbin Xiu – Purdue University)
Counting sh*t you can’t see.(Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas)
Man – that’s a hard question!!(Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs)
![Page 8: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
UQ is the difference between success and failure.(Gianluca Iaccarino – Stanford University)
UQ is quantification of the effect of uncertainty. It sounds boring indeed but I don't see anything else to it. (Dongbin Xiu – Purdue University)
Counting sh*t you can’t see.(Carter Rose – Dallas, Texas)
Man – that’s a hard question!!(Tim Trucano – Sandia National Labs)
![Page 9: Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Lecture One](https://reader037.vdocuments.us/reader037/viewer/2022102914/56816762550346895ddc3c5e/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
What is UQ???
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
I guess “uncertainty" means a lack of certainty or knowledge; i.e. ignorance. This is one definition that suggests that subjective probability may be a reasonable way to think of uncertainty wherein randomness refers to a lack of knowledge. Quantification, of course, means to quantify, to observe and assign a measure. I like the Wikipedia definition: an act of measuring that maps human observations and experiences into a set of numbers. I would weaken that a little: human observations include those made by humans using instruments. Thus, Uncertainty Quantifivation is precisely the quantification of one's lack of knowledge concerning (in science and engineering) a physical reality.(J. Tinsley Oden – University of Texas)
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A Simple Case Study
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
Suppose I drop a tennis ball from the top of Hoover Tower. How long will it take to hit the
ground?
Inspired by:Christie, Glimm, Grove, Higdon, Sharp, Wood-Shultz, “Error Analysis and Simulations of Complex Phenomena”
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Collecting Data with Mike Lesnick
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine
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Title
Uncertainty Quantification – ME470 Paul Constantine