uncertainties in gcm-rcm climate experiments examples from narccap and development of na-cordex...
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Uncertainties in GCM-RCM Climate ExperimentsExamples from NARCCAP
and Development of NA-CORDEX
Linda O. Mearns National Center for Atmospheric Research
NCPP QED Workshop (quod erat demonstratum?)
NCAR, Boulder, COAugust 14, 2013
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Outline
• What NARCCAP was trying to accomplish • NARCCAP brief overview• Extreme temperatures with climate change• New program NA-CORDEX
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Uncertainties Contributed by Regional Climate Models
• Not just the resolution, but often are different models (physics, dynamics of GCM are not the same as RCM)
• Size and location of the domain of interest• Effect of the quality of lateral boundary
conditions (e.g., from GCMs)• Also different initial conditions (e.g., in
GCM atmospheric model) will produce different simulations and thus different boundary conditions for driving RCMs)
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The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)
• Explores multiple uncertainties in regional and global climate model projections
4 global climate models x 6 regional climate models
• Develops multiple high resolution (50 km) regional climate scenarios for use in impacts and adaptation assessments
• Evaluates regional model performance to establish credibility of individual simulations for the future
• Participants: Iowa State, PNNL, LLNL, UC Santa Cruz, Scripps, Ouranos (Canada), UK Hadley Centre, NCAR
• Initiated in 2006, funded by NOAA-OGP, NSF, DOE, USEPA-ORD – 5-year program
www.narccap.ucar.edu
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NARCCAP Domain
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Organization of Program• Phase I: 25-year simulations using NCEP-Reanalysis 2
boundary conditions (1979—2004)– Mearns et al. 2012, BAMS
• Phase II: Climate Change Simulations (A2 SRES Scenario)
– Phase IIa: RCM runs (50 km res.) nested in AOGCMs current (30 yrs) and future (30 yrs)
• Mearns et al., 2013, CCLe – Phase IIb: Time-slice experiments at 50 km res. (GFDL AM2.1
and NCAR CAM3) -- for comparison with RCM runs
• Quantification of uncertainty at regional scales – probabilistic approaches
• Scenario formation and provision to impacts community led by NCAR – 53 different variables saved at 3-hr intervals
• Opportunity for double nesting (over sub-regions) to include participation of other RCM groups
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A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CCSM3HADCM3CGCM3
1971-2000 current 2041-2070 futureProvide boundary conditions
MM5Iowa State
RegCM3UC Santa Cruz
CRCMQuebec,Ouranos
HadRM3 Hadley Centre
ECPCRSMScripps
WRFPNNL
NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II
CAM3Time slice
50km
GFDLTime slice
50 km
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NARCCAP Experimental DesignA2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL CGCM3 HADCM3 CCSM3
MM5 X** X1**
RegCM X1** X**
CRCM X1** X**
HadRM X** X1**
RSM X1** X
WRF X** X1**
1 = chosen first GCM
Red = run completed ** = data loaded
AOGCMs
RCMs
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Advantages of Experimental Design
• More robust estimates of error due to missing cells
• Particularly important for determining the relative contribution of the different factors in ANOVA – also provides more robust results
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Simulation Output Archive
• 3-hourly frequency• 50-km grid cells • Avg domain size: 139×112 gridpoints (~15,500 grids)
• 2D variables: 35• 3D variables: 7 • Vertical levels: 28• NetCDF format
34 runs × 30 years × 365 days × 8 time steps ×
139 X × 112 Y × (35 + 7×28 vars) × 4 bytes =
~40 TB total data volume
S. McGinnis
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CCSM-driven change in summer temperature
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Analysis of Variance [Observed variance in a variable is partitioned into different components attributable to different sources of variations]
• Focuses on three sources of variation – AOGCMs – RCMs – Error or residual term
• Postulates that total variation in RCM output can be decomposed into these three terms
• Performed seasonally for temperature and precipitation (over sub-regions)
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Bukovsky Regions
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NARCCAP ANOVA ResultsTemperature
Red = contribution from GCMs Blue = contribution from RCMsWhite = remainder variance
S. Sain, NCAR, in Mearns et al., 2013
Summer Winter
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Climate Change Conclusions• The RCMs tend to intensify patterns of
change in precipitation (i.e., greater decreases in summer; greater increases in winter) compared to GCMs
• RCMs dominate overall variance in summer (for temperature and precipitation) and GCMs are dominant in winter
• But more process level studies will be necessary to determine if RCM changes are more credible than those of GCMs
Mearns et al., 2013 CCLe
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Southwest Climate Outlook Change in Extreme Tmax
Kunkel et al., 2012 Southwest Regional Climate Outlooks – prepared for the National Climate Assessment (NCA)
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CCSM3
GFDL
GCMS # days Tmax > 35 °C
current future - current
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MM5
CRCM
CCSM3
WRF
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GFDLHRM3
RCM3 ECPC RSM
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• Increase in Rocky Mountains all seasons
• Increase in Southeast and Pacific coast in Summer and Fall
• Decrease in the inter-Mountains all seasons particularly Winter and Spring
Y. Liu, 2012
Change in Measure of Future Forest Fire Potential
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The NARCCAP User Community
Three user groups:
• Further dynamical or statistical downscaling
• Regional analysis of NARCCAP results
• Use results as scenarios for impacts and adaptation
studieswww.narccap.ucar.edu
To sign up as user, go to web site
,
Over 700 users registered, approximately 100 articles published
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Articles Published Using NARCCAP data
• Approximately 100 articles• 34% climate analysis (e.g., Rangwala et al.,
2012; Sobolowski and Pavelsky, 2012; Rawlins et al., 2012, Kim et al., 2013)
• 30% impacts (water, health (Li et al., 2012; ecosystems, forest fires (Liu et al., 2012), forests/drought (Williams et al., 2012)
• 19% further downscaling (stat and dynamical)• 16% extremes (e.g.,Gutowski et al. 2010;
Wehner, 2012; Dominguez et al., 2012; Weller et al. (under review)
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Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX)~ Regions ~
NARCCAP
CLARIS
ENSEMBLES
RMIP
(C. Jones, 2009)
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General Aims and Plans for CORDEX
Provide a set of regional climate scenarios covering the period 1950-2100, for the majority of the populated land-regions of the globe.
Make these data sets readily available and useable to the impact and adaptation communities.
Provide a generalized framework for testing and applying regional climate models and downscaling techniques for both the recent past and future scenarios.
Foster coordination between regional downscaling efforts around the world and encourage participation inthe downscaling process of local scientists/organizations
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WCRP CORDEX:A Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment
~ North America Program ~ Executive Committee
W. J. Gutowski, Jr. – Iowa State Univ. (Co-Chair)
Linda Mearns – NCAR (Co-Chair)
Joe Barsugli, NOAA
David Behar – San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Lawrence Buja – NCAR
Gregg Garfin – Univ. Arizona
Dennis Lettenmaier – Univ. Washington
Ruby Leung – PNNL
Details at: http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/(Search: “WCRP CORDEX climate”)
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Priorities of Uncertainties • Sampling range of GCMs • Sampling range of RCMs
– And investigating multiple resolutions • Internal variability (i.e., sampling multiple
realizations of single GCM)– This element has been under-explored in
GCMs and RCMs • RCPs - lower priority – not important until
after 2050 – much might be gleaned from pattern scaling from one RCP to another
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DJF Temperature Trend (Deg. C per 55 years – (2005 - 2060)
Deser et al., 2012 Nature Climate Change
40-member ensemble
CCSM3AIB Scenario
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• 5 different RCMs • 6 different GCMs • 150 years 1950-2100 each simulation • High representative concentration pathway
(RCP 8.5) (future scenario)• Two spatial resolutions 25 km and 12 km• ERA-Interim runs (20 years) at 50, 25, 12 km• In planning phase – proposal being written
Some Basics
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Regional Climate Models
Topography of the US at two Different Spatial Resolutions
How much more meaningful information about future climate do we obtain at higher resolutions? What is the added value and how do we demonstrate this?
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Value of Scenarios of Experimental Designs
• Provides series of options based on different funding possibilities
• Clearly presents what can be explored (e.g., GCM, RCM, and interaction effects; or GCM, RCM, remainder term) and degree of error in calculations based on matrix density
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Scenarios of Experiments • Common to all: ERA-Interim driven runs –
at 3 resolutions: 50, 25,12 km for all RCMs (total of 300 years).
• Assume a fairly even sampling of GCMs and RCMs (based on Mearns et al. 2013 results)
• Then three possible experimental designs based primarily on different sampling schemes for 25 and 12 km simulations
• All will include similar sampling of internal variability
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Scenario I5 RCMS, 6 GCMs, full matrix at 25 km = 30 simulations, 150 years each; half matrix (15 simulations at 12 km). IV – from two GCMs, 3 additional realizations, each RCM at 25 km
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Scenario 1 (cont’d)
Total years: 9,000 at 25 km; 2,250 at 12. Half of years at 25 km are the IV runs.
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Scenario II
Half fraction
Half fraction
Total years:4,500 at 25 2,250 at 12
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Activities
• NA-CORDEX Meetings Dec. 2012 in SF, Feb.19, 2013 and June 21, 2013 at NCAR – to further develop integrated plans/proposal
• Survey of potential users – to determine more detailed user needs
• Coordination with groups already producing simulations (e.g., French, Canadians, British)
• Discussion with agency program managers on level of interest
• DOE-funded workshop being planned for early 2014 involving other agencies as well
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RCM RCM
GCM ensemble member
RCM
RCM ensemblemember
GCM GCMGCM
GCM
ensemble member
RCM ensemblemember
RCM ensemblemember
scenarioscenario scenario
The Future
‘Mutha’ Of All Ensembles
GCM ensemble member
R. Arritt
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THE END
320 m SLR
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17 GCMs used in AR4Change in Summer
Precipitation
Mearns et al. 2013
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11 RCMs Change in Summer Precipitation
Mearns et al., 2013
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RCM-GCM Matrix from Prudence
Déqué et al., 2005PRUDENCE
GCMs
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RCM-GCM Matrix from ENSEMBLES
Déqué et al., 2011 ENSEMBLES
RCMs
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Central PlainsSummer
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Progress in Other Regions (Examples)1. Africa (10 RCMs)
- Initial focus- Workshops promoting analyses by Africans
2. Euro-CORDEX (9 distinct RCM + variants)- Runs at 0.44˚, 0.22˚ and (in process) 0.11˚
3. South America (7 RCMs)- Built off CLARIS- Publications submitted
4. CORDEX South Asia - Workshop Feb 2012- Workshop planned for Aug 2013
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Progress in Other Regions (Examples)5. CORDEX Arctic (~ 5 RCMs)
- Workshop March 2012- Mtg. @ WCRP CORDEX Brussels (Nov 2103)
6. Med-CORDEX (9 RCMs, 12 A-O RCMs)- Add to original regions- Built off funded program
7. East Asia (7 RCMs)- Built partly off APN RMIP program- Workshops: Sep 2011, Nov 2012, Brussels 2013
8. CORDEX-SEA [Oceania]- Tentative new region- Building from funded program