Uma LeleConsiderations for Way Forward in A Dramatically Changed

WorldNovember 6, 2014

Tectonic Power Shifts ? OR Small Eruptions in the World Economic Order?

From Aid to Capital Flows and Remittances

Economic Dynamism and Growth of Emissions will likely come mostly from Developing Countries

Incremental Changes are out.

Do not be a “Boring Evaluator!” Be Relevant Communicate Effectively

Bretton Woods

136 presentations 6 plenaries Participants with Diverse Backgrounds Developed and developing countries International organizations Bilateral donors, Academics Private Sector Consultants NGOs Many Sectors Represented

But it has a Long Way to Go to Address Big Challenges

Evaluations are still largely about projects

Projects are not realizing their potential

“Big Challenges Call for New Approaches to M and E” Andrew Steer

So how did the Conference Contribute to Andrew Steer’s Call?

GEF’s OPS 4 and 5 provided evidence of moving from

◦ Projects to programs◦ Replication◦ Mainstreaming◦ Scaling Up◦ Market Change and Transformation ◦ Creating an Enabling Environment in the Countries◦ Is this working beyond GEF in other International

Organizations?---e.g. a goal of LED light bulbs to cover the world by 2030?

Mitigation

AdaptationPolicy

Conceptual Advances Complexity Theory Other Array of Conceptual Frameworks Theory of Change and Theory of No-Change

Methodological Advances

Experimental and quasi experimental methods Propensity scoring Institutional Capacity- Measurement Tools and frameworks – Network analysis Stakeholder Mapping Methods of Evaluating Mainstreaming of Climate Change in international

institutions—WB, IDB, UNEP, FAO, GEF, CIF Evaluation of Carbon Funds Some Treatment of collective action challenges

GIS—widespread availability through Open Data, reduced costs

IT Revolution Telephony Crowd sourcing

Need Complimentary ground level data

Country Capacity and resources to undertake data collection and analysis highlighted repeatedly

Advantages of Theory of change◦ A Useful tool, clarity of causal chain, ◦ Beneficial for Design of Interventions as well for

monitoring and evaluations◦ Helps identify assumptions, increases transparency

and efficiency of analysis

Increasing focus on design and learning rather than just ex post impact

Risks in Rigid Application of TOC Approach Linear thinking Tunnel Vision Looking for the key where the light is Insufficient Use of Science

Therefore Theory of No Change is Also Important: ◦ Helps identify System level constraints which come in the

way of change Systematic Search for Obstacles to Change Examples ◦ OPS 5, South China Sea◦ World Bank on energy investments◦ IDB’s mainstreaming of Climate Change

If Billions and Trillions of $s are being spent on subsidies We Need More Evaluations on policies and Reforms◦ Some Examples In Plenary (Chomitz and Mark-Wagner) Mentioned the

critical role of subsidies. IDB Evaluation—why policy loans are a weak

instrument to mainstream Climate Change An evaluation in Ecuador—improved tenure security

did not seem to matter on land use outcomes as expected

◦ Mitigation Has Been around longer◦ Is more hard science driven?◦ Technological solutions dominate◦ Easier conceptually to measure?◦ Clearer methods of measurement. Implications◦ Increase coherence in the way different International Organizations approach Mitigation norms, standards, guidance to investors?◦Organize a consortium!

MDBs and Regional Banks Are Evaluating Mainstreaming of mitigation in Development Lending. Evidence of Huge Unexploited Scope for ◦ improving efficiency using conventional technologies,

e.g. in power sector to reduce emissions◦ Creating Enabling Environment◦ Reducing SubsidiesBut No Guarantee the above three bullets will result in increased investments.

Analysis of Markets and Market Development for Mitigation Related technologies seems to be weak in projects.

“Adaptation is a process of continual adjustment which, if successful, will enable socio-economic or environmental goals to be achieved despite a changing climate context”.

Long Time Frame, Inherent Uncertainties Need for flexibility

Diversity of key concepts and definitions. Little Progress since the 1st Evaluation

Conference?

Clarify Adaptation, Resilience, Vulnerability and development challenges and interventions

At the National Level Well Articulated Mitigation Strategies But Absent Overarching National Adaptation Strategies? Piecemeal Approaches to Adaptation mostly local and sectorial— Disconnect between National and Local Disconnect among Sectors

Enhance Domestic Capacities

A Shining Example of Disaster Management Orissa State in India–Coping with Hurricane in 2013 moved a million

people to safety

Need for investments in developing countries to achieve adaptive capacity and transformational change

CLIMATE SMART VILLAGE

Knowledge smart

•Farmer-farmer learning

•Community seed and fodder banks

•Market info•Off-farm risk management

Nitrogen smart

•Site specific nutrient management

•Precision fertilizers

•Catch cropping / legumes

Carbon smart

•Agroforestry•Conservation tillage

•Land use systems

•Livestock management

Water smart

•Aquifer recharge

•Rainwater harvesting

•Community management of water

•Laser leveling•On-farm water management

Weather smart

•Weather forecasts

•ICT based agro-advisories

•Index based insurance

•Climate analogues

Energy smart

•Biofuels•Fuel efficient engines

•Residue management

•Minimum tillage

(Source: Erickson et al., 2011)

23

Climatic variability is Not the Same as Climate Change But they are relatedHigh CV of rainfall in Pakistan; northwest and south India

Drought: >26 droughts in last 130 years

70% land drought prone; 12% flood prone and 8% to cyclones

Frost: common in northern regions

Heat: frequent episodes at many places

Frequent floods and cyclones in several regions

(Source: Erickson et al., 2011)

Can this Buy Us Time? Increasing Energy Efficiency Information and labelling Certification—e.g. Palm oil Solar Technologies

Need to Search for Long Term Solutions: Renewables????

Messy Global Environmental Architecture: Global Agreements, Rule Setting, and Financial Flows to Developing Countries 

Source: Authors

Fragmented Global Climate Financing Architecture in need of Evaluation to achieve coherence

How are emission reduction measured? How Is Adaptation considered?

“Traditional Vs. New Organizations”

Pros and Cons of Convention Based Financing Vs. The Ad Hoc Emergence of Climate Funds—e.g. van den Berg

On the Evaluation of the Messy Environmental Architecture, Some questions: Do we need many funds with expectation of

coordination BY DEVELOPING Countries at the national level?

Costs and benefits to developing countries of lack of harmonization at the global level◦ REDD Readiness, Banks and IOs have had their own rules

Evaluation of Mainstreaming of Climate Change in Governments of developing countries

Scope for Win Wins Trade Offs?

Capacity in Developing Countries Combining Big Data and little data? Frequent lack of ground level data Technologies related to Data—GIS,

telephones, ICTs Treatment of social issues—indigenous

people, livelihoods Trade offs between environment and

development?

Impacts of Policy Changes Measurement of Institutional capacity ◦ Intra-household and household decision making◦ Community and Local and National Government

level Analysis of ◦ Power Relationships◦ Elite Capture◦ Class, Culture and Caste

Social and anthropological studies in Adaptation

Communicate Existing Evaluation Findings More Effectively

Understand Consequences of Recommendations

Undertake Faster and Better Evaluations

Start Evaluations from the Design Stage

Focus on Learning

Build Capacity in Developing Countries.

David Akana, Anupam Anand, Dennis Bours, Evelyn Chihuguyu, Kenneth Chomitz, Sara El Choufi, Shanna Rachelle Edberg, Jeneen Reyes Garcia, Francisco Grahammer, Malac Kabir, Muhammad Najeeb Khan, Punji Leagnavar, Simone Marti, Neeraj Kumar Negi, Michelle Pena Nelz, Juan Jose Portillo, Jyotsna Puri, Ruben Sardon, Joshua David Schneck, Kseniya Temnenko, Dania Maria Trespalacios, Rob D. van den Berg, Anna Birgitta Viggh, Claudio Volante, Juha Uitto, Baljit Wadhwa, Mark Wagner, Aaron Zazueta.