ukraine transport strategy alignment within the context of eu integration
TRANSCRIPT
- Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within
the context of EU Integration
RESTORING UKRAINE ROLE TRANSIT POTENTIAL OF NEW UKRAINE -
A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH TO INCREASE TRANSIT TRAFFIC
Results of this publication were obtained during EU funded Project IDEA
Dr. Ashraf Hamed
Kiev April 28, 2016
1
1 Trends in Ukraine freight transit (2013)
2 Ukraine in TRACECA / Regional Context
3 Attractiveness of Transport corridor in Ukraine
4 Border crossing Impact and benchmarking
5 National Strategy, the road ahead
6 TEN-T corridor and Demand Forecast Scenarios
2 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Rail Road inland waterways
Freigh Traffic (tons)
2013 mln. Tons 2012 mln. Tons 2011 mln. Tons
Trends in Ukraine Freight Transport Let us look at the numers
Railway is the backbone 60%
Roads at 23%
Inland Waterways almost nothing
Shares seems to be stable over years
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2013/tz/vp/vp_u/vp0813_u.htm
3 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Rail Road inland waterways
Freight Traffic (ton.km)
2013 mln. Tons.km 2012 mln. Tons.km 2011 mln. Tons.km
......and in Ton.km ....!!
Railway is also seeing a slight loss and still carry almost 60% share
Roads is relatively stable and the share is limited to 10%
Inland Waterways still play no role with a share of almost 2%
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2013/tz/vp/vp_u/vp0813_u.htm
4 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Rail
Road
Mari
tim
e
2011
2012
2013
And what does the Transit look like.....?
Railway losing significantly
Roads can still maintain its share
Maritime transit had a drop on 2012
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2013/tz/tranz/tranz_u/tranz0213_u.htm
5 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
-75% -25% 25% 75%
Rail
Road
Maritime
Aviation
Pipeline
2011/ 2010
2012 / 2011
2013 / 2012
Let s look at the percents.....? Railway had a recovery in 2010 and losing since then almost 25%
http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2013/tz/tranz/tranz_u/tranz0213_u.htm
Roads has a significant loss in 2012 and 2013
Maritime had a significant loss last year and seems to recover
6 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Let s look at the big Picture of Transit
These are simulated the freight flows (base year 2008)
Validated with UNCOM Trade values 2008
We can see main corridors domestically and internationally and their directions
7 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
And for railroad….. Rail roads carry significantly more than roads
We can see main corridors domestically and internationally and their directions
8 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Model simulated SCENARIOS (2020)
Base Scenario 2008
– status including the multimodal freight network and the freight demand of the base year 2008.
1. Reference Scenario 2020 (DO Nothing)
– The network is the same as for the Base Scenario 2008.
2. Border Crossing Scenario 2020
– Do Nothing plus improvements of the border crossings. Waiting times at border crossings are reduced to a maximum of 6 hours for roads and 8 hours for railway
3. Maritime Connections Scenario 2020
– Capacities for transshipment links, representing the ports were increased by 100%.
4. Infrastructure Scenario 2020
– Infrastructure increasing capacity of certain link (Rail/Road)
9 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
ROADS : Do Nothing
10 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
ROADS :Border crossing
11 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
RAIL & Maritime / Do Nothing
12 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
RAIL & Maritime / Border crossing
13 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Comparison of ports’ traffic
There is forecast of potential of increase with the improved border crossing for 2020
That seem to be triggered by increase in trade
14 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
2020: ODESSA 2008: ODESSA
15 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
2008 AZOFF SEA PORTS
16 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
2020 AZOFF SEA PORTS
17 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
2020 GEORGIA PORTS
18 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
What could be reasons for Transit loss?
Political reasons
Possibly Customs unions RUS / BY / KAZ simplifying transit movements within these countries as well as promoting trade among them
Possible Belorussia import via Russian ports
Lack of clear strategy for Ukraine Transport for several years
Incompatibility with EU documentation NCTS documentation system add strong resistance to crossing Ukraine
19 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
How attractive is Ukraine Logistics
Compare with
20 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Did Ukraine develop ?
LPI development
21 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Is Ukraine attractive as a corridor?
TRACECA calculated the attractiveness index TRX Based on driven routes journals obtained from IRU in the framework of NELTI
October 2009 for three routes
Trans Russian Route
Trans Caucasus Route
Trans Turkey / Iran Route
(relevant for Ukraine)
22 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
TRAX measures resistances / Attractiveness FOR ROUTES Highest
resistance in Ukraine- Trans
Caucasus
23 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
TRANS – CAUCASUS / Ukraine TRAX in detail
ROMANIA
BULGARIA
POLAND
UKRAINE
GEORGIA
AZERBAIJAN
KAZAKHSTAN
UZBEKISTAN
KIRGIZSTAN
Region TRAX TCR-Europe TRAX TCR-Caucasus TRAX TCR-CA
total Countries Ukraine,
Romania, Bulgaria
Black Sea ferry, Georgia, Azerbajidzan, Caspian Ferry
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
TRAX total 2765 3480 2616 8861
TRAX stretches 438 1381 549 2368
TRAX nodes 2327 2099 2067 6493
Nodes (ports and x-ing)
are the bottlenecks
Time
Cost Reliability Security
Bad and good news
24
TRAX Ukraine
Non-physical barriers and uncertainty are the easiest to improve without major investments.
Just have the will to do that
administrative reforms and will ultimately target: Predictability of time and costs at border crossing including land and
maritime borders
Overdue improvements of transit documentation to compatibility with European Standards
In particular
Ukraine has introduced a new Customs Code which the importers as well as the freight forwarding and customs’ brokerage industry report as much improved and more workable than the previous one.
Still further alignment is needed for example the implementation of NCTS documentation system
25 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
26 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
27,2
54,7
30,936,9
28,231,4
27,2 26,430,8
41,9
56,7
49,5
41,534,5
30,4
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
Nov
ie Y
arilo
vich
i
Bac
hevs
k
Gop
tovk
a
Dolzh
ansk
y
Nov
oazo
vsk
Ren
i
Platono
voe
Mam
aliga
Porub
noe
Dya
kovo
e
Cho
p (Tisa)
Uzh
gorod
She
gini
Rav
a-Rus
ska
Yag
odin
benchmark
Time Indicator
101,6
44,5
74,6
100,786,5
95,0105,5
80,0 73,4 71,0
116,7103,7
94,8
71,8
89,4
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
120,0
140,0
Nov
ie Y
arilo
vich
i
Bac
hevs
k
Gop
tovk
a
Dolzh
ansk
y
Nov
oazo
vsk
Ren
i
Platono
voe
Mam
aliga
Porub
noe
Dya
kovo
e
Cho
p (T
isa)
Uzh
gorod
She
gini
Rav
a-Rus
ska
Yag
odin
benchmark
Cost Indicator
Indicators Scores at Ukrainian BCPs in 2015
6,06,8 6,6 6,3
4,9
6,0 6,1 6,0 5,76,3 6,6 6,3
6,7 6,4 6,5
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
5,0
6,0
7,0
8,0
Nov
ie Y
arilo
vich
i
Bache
vsk
Gop
tovk
a
Dolzh
ansk
y
Nov
oazo
vsk
Ren
i
Plato
novo
e
Mam
aliga
Porub
noe
Dya
kovo
e
Cho
p (T
isa)
Uzh
goro
d
Shegi
ni
Rav
a-Rus
ska
Yagod
in
benchmark
Clearance Process Efficiency Indicator
27 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
36.5
11.0
15.7
8.8
18.8
5.2
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Time index
Aggregated index BCPs in 2015: country comparisons
130.1
33.0
46.6
22.0
47.9
10.0
0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Time spent preparing documents, sub index
45.9
18.4
26.3
12.4
40.6
12.0
0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Time Index between arrival to the border and beginning of passing control
6.6
3.7
5.4
3.3
5.5
4.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Ukraine
Mold…
Georgia
Belarus
Azer…
Arme…
Time Index needed from submission of the documents for control until completion of the
control
28 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
91.8
63.5
95.1
73.7
148.6
61.3
0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0 200.0
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Cost index
Aggregated index BCPs in 2015: country comparisons
6.2
6.7
6.9
6.5
6.8
7.0
5.8 6.0 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Clearance process efficiency, index
8.1
19.7
18.4
15.5
18.3
18.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Risk, index
10.6
9.6
11.1
10.2
9.2
10.9
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0
Ukraine
Moldova
Georgia
Belarus
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Customs procedures, index
29 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Improvement/deterioration for road BCPs of Ukraine
2012 Ukraine made trading across borders more difficult by introducing additional inspections for customs clearance of imports.
2014 Releasing customs declarations quicker and reducing the number of physical inspections.
2015 Advance exchange of information of goods and transport means crossing the borders of Georgia and Ukraine
What Should be done?
With the understanding that Ukraine may still have a chance to stop the loss of transit traffic and improve transit shares; and align its transport network with EU network and policy guidelines
The concerns remains valid, if Ukraine is determined to do the necessary steps….What to do?
1. Transparent transport policy
2. Updated Strategy
3. Realistic action plan
4. Legislation approximation 1. Transposition
2. implementation and
3. Enforcement)
30 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
Framing answers to right Questions
• Establish Policy Agenda
• Update Transport Strategy
• Fight against corruption
• Sector Reforms and Restructure
• Multimodality and role of transit
• Integrated Logistics System
• Allocate funds to rationally
prioritized investments
• What are the overarching objectives
we want to achieve?
• What fundamental policy principles
guide our efforts to achieve
objectives?
• What are the shortcomings in
existing arrangements, both now
and in the future
• Given forecast demand, the
identified shortcomings and the
investment and institutional
resources likely to be available over
the planning period …..
What are the most important first steps
in implementing these strategies?
Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration 31
Strategy Update
32 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
REGIONAL TRAFFIC FLOW PATTERNS
Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration 33
Rail freight flow patterns
34
Roads freight flow patterns
35
Rail passenger flow patterns
36
Roads passenger flow patterns
37
Level of service on the EaP road
38
A Free flow
B Reasonably free flow
C Stable flow
D Approaching unstable flow
E Unstable flow
F Forced or breakdown flow
REGIONAL DEMAND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS (2030)
Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration 39
Base Year vs Baseline 2030 freight flow patterns
40
Rail
Integration vs Baseline 2030 freight flow patterns
41
Rail
Stagnation vs Baseline 2030 freight flow patterns
42
Rail
Base Year vs Baseline 2030 freight flow patterns
43
Road
Integration vs Baseline 2030 freight flow patterns
44
Road
Stagnation vs Baseline 2030 freight flow patterns
45
Road
Baseline 2030 LoS-
46
A Free flow
B Reasonably free flow
C Stable flow
D Approaching unstable flow
E Unstable flow
F Forced or breakdown flow
Integration 2030 LoS-
47
A Free flow
B Reasonably free flow
C Stable flow
D Approaching unstable flow
E Unstable flow
F Forced or breakdown flow
Stagnation 2030 LoS
48
A Free flow
B Reasonably free flow
C Stable flow
D Approaching unstable flow
E Unstable flow
F Forced or breakdown flow
Strategy Update
49 Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration
50
Thank you for your attention
Ukraine Transport Strategy Alignment within the context of EU Integration