Ukraine at 25: evaluation of the past

and plans for the future

Author: Olha Korotych Kyiv National Economic University

Contents

1. Introduction

2. Outlook for 2000 − 2015

3. Plans for the future

Introduction

Ukraine got an independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and has since decided between looking for closer integration with Western Europe and being drawn into the relationship from the past with Russia. It is located in the heart of Eastern Europe and occupying a land area of 603,700 square kilometers, is the second largest country in Europe.

Ukraine 1991 - 2001

Challenges : Strengths :

In 2000 GDP grew by 5.8% YOY, well above the official forecast of 3.5%. Adoption of the realistic budget, increase in export and the structural improvements in the main economic sectors, and decline in barter payments supported the growth.

Ukraine’s industry grew dramatically 12.9% YOY in 2000.

The economic reforms influenced the GDP growth during 1991-2001. The loose fiscal and soft monetary policy; privatization and energy sector reforms were the source of the fast growth. The companies got more credits from the banks.

Wheat accounts for around 50% of total grain production (in value).

•Dependence on Russia and corruption in all major sectors.•Swollen Bureacracy.•Difficulty in accessing finance is a main concern for small and medium-sized farmers.

Facts: GDP growth beats official

forecasts. Industrial growth. Economic reforms.

Agriculture sector: Grain production makes up

more than 40% of Ukraine’s agriculture

production.

Ukraine 2002

Ukraine 2003-2005

Challenges : Strengths :

•Public debt has grown by 2.4% YOY in

2003.

•In 2003 Ukraine’s overall trade surplus (in

goods and services) fell by 31% y-o-y, to

USD 1.3 bil.

•Orange Revolution and political instability.

•De-privatization and high level of

corruption.

o Agriculture recovering and domestic consumption

on the rise in 2003−2004.

o The industrial sector boosted output by a record

high 15.8% YOY.

o The GDP expanded 12.4% in 2004.

o Progress in the field of liberalization. The

membership with WTO was expected.

o Tax system reforms.

Ukraine 2005-2008

Ukraine 2008-2011

Ukraine 2011-2015

Ukraine 2011-2015

UKRAINE’S MAJOR MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

PLANS FOR THE FUTURE

Stimulating efficiency-driven agricultural output;

It’s a garner of Europe, so the country has a possibility to

consolidate its positions among the rest of the countries;

Law labor force, but a high level of education. Proper

social and educational reforms will give the country a

new start in life. To develop a platform for IT-

technologies;

The country has to obtain justice and conduct

decentralization. Get rid of corruption, red-tape, etc;

To stabilize all major spheres: political, economical;

social, etc;

To reach a truthful GDP growth;

Possible ways to renew the country in 25 years:

Thank You for attention!