UKIP’s Effect on this election

Eric Kaufmann@epkaufm

Quick Note on Method

• UKIP to zero, or to half current strength• Distribute UKIP votes using converter derived from 19 Ashcroft polls

of UKIPpers’ recalled 2010 vote (N=1500) AND 3 waves of BES 2015 Internet Panel (N=12,000)• Apply conversion to 130 Marginal seats’ Ashcroft constituency polls• Add Rochester and Clacton• See how many of the 130 flip to the Tories

29 Sep 201413-Oct17-Nov24-Nov01-Dec08 Dec 201412 Jan 201519-Jan26-Jan30-Jan09-Feb16-Feb27-Feb09-M

ar13-M

ar23-M

ar30-M

ar13-Apr20 Apr 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

How Did UKIP Vote Intenders Vote in 2010? (Ashcroft Polls)

Con Lab Lib

Vote UKIP, Get Miliband?

• UKIP’s existence costs the Tories 15 marginal seats• If UKIP disappeared,

Conservatives+Lib Dems would be up 11, Labour down 11• The total would go from 330-314

for Left Coalition (Lab-SNP-Other) to 325-319 for Tory-Lib-DUP coalition

If UKIP’s Vote Share Halves, will this save Dave?

I assume UKIP on 14%

273

1328

268

55

7 6Current

Con

UKIP/ DUP

Lib Dem

Labour

SNP

Other Left

Neutral

280

1127

264

55

7 6Half UKIP

Con

UKIP/ DUP

Lib Dem

Labour

SNP

Other Left

Neutral

Based on Guardian forecast. End Result: Left Coalition wins 326-318

282.5

1325

269.5

50

46

Current

Con UKIP/ DUP Lib Dem LabourSNP Other Left Neutral

290

1124

265

50

4 6Half UKIP

Con UKIP/ DUP Lib Dem LabourSNP Other Left Neutral

Based on Ladbrokes forecast. End Result: Right Coalition wins 325-319. These polls already assume some UKIP leakage so UKIP must lose OVER half their vote for Tory-Lib Dem to win.

UKIP Con Green Lab BNP Lib Dem Plaid0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

25.631.5

45.253.8 54.9

61.4

467.3

Vote Clustering, by Party, in 2014 European Elec-tions (Coefficient of Variation of vote)

Labour-SNP Win, Rise of English Nationalism• Right sees demise of seat-rich partner (Lib Dems), rise of

seat-poor (UKIP)• Right+Center could have ~60% of vote yet be out of power

for several elections• Risk of even sharper English nationalist populism (anti-EU,

anti-Scotland, anti-immigration)