ukip and the left behind: explaining britain’s revolt on the right robert ford and matthew goodwin
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
UKIP and the Left Behind:
Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right
Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin
![Page 2: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Why are we here?
Source: Pickup, Jennings and Ford “Polling Observatory” poll aggregation estimates
![Page 3: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Why UKIP was a long-time coming
(and may have a long way to run)
![Page 4: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Decline of the British Working Class, 1964-2012
Source: BES 1964-83; BSA 1984-12; class measured using Goldthorpe–Heath 5-category class schema
![Page 5: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Rise of the Educated Middle Class, 1964-2012
Source: British Election Studies 1964-1983; British Social Attitudes 1984-2012
![Page 6: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Class and educational divides in EU support...
Source: British Social Attitudes 1993-2012
![Page 7: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Immigration divides us by class, education, and generation...
Source: British Election Study Continuous Monitoring Survey 2004-13
![Page 8: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
The working class feel more left out than ever before
Source: British Social Attitudes 1986-2012
![Page 9: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
What all this means: UKIP are mobilising the “Left behind”
![Page 10: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
So who are the UKIP voters?
![Page 11: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
UKIP’s base: male, pale, stale, and struggling
![Page 12: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
The Brussels Plus: Not just single-issue Eurosceptics..
![Page 13: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
They are very unhappy about both parties’ performance on immigration and the crisis…
![Page 14: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
....and very hostile to both parties’ leaders
![Page 15: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
UKIP Support among Different Groups 2004-2013: “Doubling Down” on the Left Behind
Strong Euroscepti
cs
Weak Eurosceptic
s
Europhiles
Populism - dissatisfied with democracyBlair: 2004-7 15 5 0.6Brown: 2007-10 12 5 0.6Cameron I: 2010-11 20 5 0.4Cameron II: 2012-13 38 15 1
Share of sample 14 18 21
Immigration - rate importance of asylum 10 out of 10Blair: 2004-7 14 6 1Brown: 2007-10 11 5 0.8Cameron I: 2010-11 16 5 0.8Cameron II: 2012-13 36 14 2
Share of the sample 15 16 11
![Page 16: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Labour’s 2015 problem
![Page 17: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
UKIP is recruiting mainly former Cons…
![Page 18: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
…from the dissatisfied groups Labour ought to be reconnecting with
![Page 19: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Labour’s post 2010 rebound is strongest where UKIP’s appeal is weakest
![Page 20: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Labour’s 2020 problemSeat Incumbent
1. Clacton Con2. Rhondda Lab3. Blaenau Gwent Lab4. Kingston-upon-Hull East Lab5. Eastington Lab6. Knowsley Lab7. Barnsley Lab8. Aberavon Lab9. Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymeney Lab10. Doncaster North Lab11. Liverpool Walton Lab12. Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
Lab
13. Great Grimsby Lab14. Ashfield Lab15. Bolsover Lab16. Boston and Skegness Con17. Cynon Valley Lab18. Wentworth and Dearne Lab19. Redcar LD20. Houghton and Sunderland South Lab
![Page 21: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Incumbent party, top 100 UKIP-leaning seats
![Page 22: UKIP and the Left Behind: Explaining Britain’s Revolt on the Right Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin](https://reader034.vdocuments.us/reader034/viewer/2022042717/56649ca25503460f949612fe/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What we just said in far more detail…
@robfordmancs
@GoodwinMJ