UK National Audit Office Report on Over-optimism in Government

Projects…

This 12 page report from the UK National Audit Office

identifies five interesting drivers for major project

difficulties linked to over-optimism and unrealistic

expectations.

There are some good examples from past audit work.

FEBRUARY 2014

Over-optimism has many contributory factors – in

most cases they seem to all operate to some

extent.

The following are ‘red flags’ for auditors of projects:

• increased complexity

• a weaker evidence base

• extensive stakeholders

• short-term behaviour and incentives

• a lack of independent challenge and

accountability

WHAT DOES IT SAY.

FEBRUARY 2014

Over-optimism leads decision-makers to under-

play the fact that most projects end up having

complexities that aren’t planned for.

The same happens with gaps in the evidence

base for project decisions.

It seems decision-makers hope that these things

can be managed effectively if (not when) they

arise. Sounds about right.

WHAT ELSE DOES IT SAY.

FEBRUARY 2014

Often there are incentives to act this way, as

decision-makers chase investment funds and

seek ‘early wins’ from projects. Politicians just

love this ‘can do’ attitude because it means

things happen within an electoral cycle.

Contractors are not held accountable for over-

optimism much either, so out-sourced projects

hold additional accountability risks

WHAT ELSE DOES IT SAY.

FEBRUARY 2014

• ‘Human’ behavioural drivers for audit risk are various, so it is great to see an auditor analysing past work to pin-point specific behaviours that need to special consideration.

• Auditors should keep an eye out for the factors identified.

• Also watch the UKNAO, for more good stuff like this.

The comments on these slides are the views of Tim Kirby, Sydney.

You should always read the report itself before putting your reputation, or any money, on the line.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN.

Tim Kirby, Sydney CA, CIA, LA-EMS

au.linkedin.com/in/timkirbysydney

FEBRUARY 2014