uk forecast

No. 295November 2011

compiled by the Macroeconomic Prospects Teamhm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts

Forecasts for the UK economy:a comparison of independent forecasts

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ISBN 978-1-84532-913-6 PU797

100%

CONTENTSMedium-term forecasts, November 2011

Page

Summary Page: Short-term forecasts 3

Table 1 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 4

Table 2 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 5

Table 3 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 6

Table 4 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change) 7

Table 5 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change) 8

Table 6 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change) 9

Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 10

Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account and PSNB (2011-12) 11

Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment 12

Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2012-13) 13

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months 14

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2011-12) made in last 3 months 15

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in last 3 months 16

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-13) made in last 3 months 17

Summary Page: Medium-term Forecasts 18

Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflator

Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contribution

Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflation

Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rate

Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemployment

Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflation

Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current account

Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNB

Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gap 23

Average of medium-term forecasts for GDP growth, CPI inflation and claimant unemployment 24

Average of medium-term forecasts for the current account and PSNB 25

Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables 26

Annex 2: Data definitions 27

Annex 3: Notation used in tables 28

Annex 4: Organisation contact details 29

Users should note that the Treasury crest (which incorporates the Royal Coat of Arms) may not be used or reproduced for any

purpose without specific permission. Permission to use or reproduce the Treasury crest should be sought from HM Treasury.

Forecasts for the UK economy is compiled and coordinated by Mohammad Jamei. Please direct enquiries on the content of this

issue to Mohammad Jamei (020 7270 5404, [email protected]).

The next edition will be published on 21st December 2011. It will also be available on the Treasury’s website:

http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/forecasts.

PU797 ISBN 978-1-84532-913-6

19

20

21

22

Please note that Forecasts for the UK economy is a summary of published material reflecting the views of the forecasting organisations themselves

and does not in any way provide new information on the Treasury’s own views. It contains only a selection of forecasters, which is subject to

review. No significance should be attached to the inclusion or exclusion of any particular forecasting organisation. HM Treasury accepts no

responsibility for the accuracy of material published in this comparison.

The averages and ranges in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing that it is reproduced accurately

and not used in a misleading context. The data remain the copyright of those organisations providing it - permission to reproduce it must be

sought from both HM Treasury and the providers of the original data.

Forecasts for 2011

November October Lowest Highest

GDP growth (per cent) 1.0 1.0 0.6 1.6 1.0

Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)

- CPI 4.7 4.6 4.2 5.0 4.8

- RPI 5.3 5.3 4.8 5.7 5.4

Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.62 1.61 1.51 1.76 1.62

Current account (£bn) -22.4 -32.4 -62.9 -3.3 -18.2

PSNB (2011-12: £bn) 128.0 128.1 110.0 146.0 127.8

Forecasts for 2012

N b O b L Hi h

Average of

new*

forecasts

Averages November

FORECASTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY

This edition of the comparison contains 21 new forecasts, all of which were received between November 1st and

November 11th 2011. The tables below summarise the average and range of independent forecasts for 2011 and

2012 and show the average of this month’s new forecasts.

A comparison of independent forecasts, November 2011

Independent+

Independent+Average of

new*

forecasts

Averages November

November October Lowest Highest

GDP growth (per cent) 1.2 1.5 -0.4 2.3 1.0

Inflation rate (Q4: per cent)

- CPI 2.2 2.2 0.7 3.4 2.2

- RPI 2.8 2.9 0.8 4.0 2.7

Claimant unemployment (Q4: mn) 1.70 1.65 1.40 1.98 1.74

Current account (£bn) -17.7 -25.6 -43.2 27.5 -14.5

PSNB (2012-13: £bn) 112.8 110.7 85.0 146.4 112.1

+ Independent averages, and the range of forecasts, are based on forecasts made in the last three months

(November: 21 institutions, October: 7 institutions, September: 3 institutions).

*Calculated from new forecasts received for the comparison this month.

Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries except for house-price inflation (see

notation).

forecasts

Forecasts for the UK economy November 2011 3

Forecasters and dates of forecasts

City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 1.3 -1.0 0.4 1.5 -0.1 - - - 1.6 -Barclays Capital Nov * 0.9 -1.2 1.7 -1.7 -0.2 -0.8 5.3 -0.1 1.6 -Capital Economics Nov * 0.8 -1.5 1.5 -1.5 0.1 -0.8 4.5 -0.1 0.4 -Citigroup Nov * 0.9 -1.1 2.3 -2.6 -0.3 -0.7 5.7 0.7 1.6 -Commerzbank Nov * 0.9 -1.3 2.2 -1.1 -0.2 -0.6 4.8 0.3 1.3 -2.3Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 0.8 -0.7 0.1 0.2 -0.5 -0.7 7.9 1.9 1.5 -3.2Deutsche Bank Nov * 1.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 4.9 1.2 1.0 -Goldman Sachs Nov * 1.0 -1.0 1.7 -0.8 -0.3 -0.7 5.4 0.2 1.5 -3.7 kHSBC Nov * 1.0 -0.8 1.8 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4 4.2 -0.2 - -ING Financial Markets Nov * 0.9 -1.4 1.6 -1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.9 0.8 1.6 -J P Morgan Jul 1.1 -0.9 0.3 1.9 0.0 - 7.2 1.5 1.5 -Lombard Street Jul 1.8 0.1 0.8 3.5 0.1 0.9 9.7 5.5 0.9 -3.2Morgan Stanley Oct 0.8 -1.3 1.4 -1.4 0.0 -0.7 5.8 0.5 1.5 -Nomura Nov * 0.9 -1.0 1.6 -1.8 0.0 -0.5 5.1 0.2 1.4 -2.3RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 1.0 -1.2 2.0 -1.3 - -0.5 5.0 0.5 1.5 -Schroders Investment Management Nov * 0.9 -1.1 3.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.6 5.6 0.8 1.4 -0.5Scotia Capital Oct 0.7 -1.8 1.4 -1.2 -0.3 -1.3 5.4 -0.3 1.7 -2.0Societe Generale Nov * 0.9 -1.4 2.0 -1.2 -0.3 -0.8 4.9 -0.3 1.5 -Standard Chartered Bank Sep 1.1 -0.1 0.3 1.5 0.2 0.5 6.4 3.7 0.6 -UBS Sep 1.1 -0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 7.5 2.6 1.2 -

Non-City forecasters

British Chambers of Commerce Oct 0.9 -1.2 0.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.9 5.0 3.0 1.5 -1.5Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 0.9 -0.6 1.7 -1.2 0.1 -0.5 5.3 1.4 1.2 -Cambridge Econometrics Nov * 1.0 -1.2 1.7 -1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.5 0.6 1.4 -CBI Nov * 0.9 -1.2 1.7 -1.5 -0.3 -0.8 5.5 0.1 1.6 -CEBR Oct 0.6 -1.2 1.9 -2.3 -0.3 -0.8 4.4 0.3 1.2 -Economic Perspectives Nov * 1.6 -0.1 0.4 4.0 0.0 0.6 5.2 1.5 1.0 -Experian Business Strategies Oct 1.0 -0.6 0.7 0.0 0.1 -0.1 4.2 0.1 1.1 -EIU Nov * 0.8 -1.2 1.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 5.4 2.1 1.0 -IHS Global Insight Nov * 0.9 -0.8 1.4 -0.9 - -0.5 5.1 0.4 1.4 -ITEM Club Oct 0.9 -1.0 1.7 -1.1 -0.2 -0.4 5.6 0.7 1.4 -Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 1.5 1.5 c -2.9 m 5.4 d - - - - - -NIESR Nov * 0.9 -1.0 1.7 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 4.9 -0.2 1.5 -Oxford Economics Nov * 0.9 -1.2 1.6 -1.4 -0.2 -0.6 4.9 0.2 1.4 -1.6EC Nov * 0.7 -1.1 1.5 -1.6 -0.2 -0.6 5.1 0.2 1.4 -OECD Jun 1.4 ^ 0.2 0.2 1.7 0.0 0.4 8.0 4.0 0.9 -4.0IMF Sep 1.1 - - - - - - - - -

Average of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Independent 1.0 -1.0 1.5 -0.9 -0.1 -0.6 5.3 0.7 1.3 -1.7New (marked *) 1.0 -1.1 1.7 -1.0 -0.2 -0.6 5.1 0.4 1.3 -1.7City 0.9 -1.1 1.7 -1.3 -0.2 -0.7 5.1 0.3 1.3 -2.3

Range of forecasts made in the last 3 months

Highest 1.6 -0.1 3.7 4.0 0.2 0.6 7.5 3.7 1.7 -0.5Lowest 0.6 -1.8 0.2 -2.6 -0.4 -1.3 4.2 -0.3 0.4 -2.3Median 0.9 -1.1 1.6 -1.2 -0.2 -0.6 5.2 0.4 1.4 -1.8

OBR Mar 0.8 0.2 1.1

Out

put

Gap

(as

% o

f

pote

ntia

l GD

P)

-3.90.71.7 0.6

^ OECD growth forecast is from the May 2011 OECD Economic Outlook. The OECD's Spetember 2011 Interim Economic Outlook forecast is for GDP growth of 0.9 per cent in

2011.

Cha

nge

in in

vent

ori

es

cont

ribu

tio

n (%

of

GD

P)

To

tal i

mpo

rts

5.0

Do

mes

tic

dem

and

Table 1 - 2011: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)

GD

P

Pri

vate

co

nsum

ptio

n

Go

vern

men

t

cons

umpt

ion

7.9

Net

tra

de

cont

ribu

tio

n (%

of

GD

P)

Fix

ed in

vest

men

t

2.3

To

tal e

xpo

rts



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 4.5 5.0 - 2.4 - 0.75 - -

Barclays Capital Nov * 4.8 5.6 5.7 0.8 - 0.50 - -

Capital Economics Nov * 5.0 5.4 5.4 2.7 82.6 0.50 100.0 -1.0

Citigroup Nov * 4.8 5.4 5.6 2.8 78.0 0.50 113.5 -

Commerzbank Nov * 4.9 5.2 5.4 2.6 79.6 0.50 109.1 -0.9

Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 4.0 5.0 4.6 2.0 78.5 0.50 110.0 2.6

Deutsche Bank Nov * 4.8 5.5 - 3.0 78.5 0.50 112.0 -0.7

Goldman Sachs Nov * 4.7 5.3 5.2 2.7 81.0 g - 111.0 9.6 k

HSBC Nov * 4.7 5.3 - 2.2 - 0.50 - -

ING Financial Markets Nov * 4.7 5.5 5.5 2.7 - 0.50 115.0 1.0

J P Morgan Jul 4.6 5.2 4.4 - - - - -

Lombard Street Jul 4.5 5.0 - 2.7 - 0.50 - 2.8

Morgan Stanley Oct 4.5 5.2 5.3 2.9 - 0.50 - -

Nomura Nov * 4.9 5.4 5.5 2.3 - 0.50 110.0 -

RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 5.0 5.6 5.7 2.8 79.6 0.50 112.0 -

Schroders Investment Management Nov * 5.0 5.4 5.6 - - 0.50 - -

Scotia Capital Oct 4.9 5.4 5.5 2.7 - 0.50 - -

Societe Generale Nov * 4.8 5.0 5.2 2.3 80.0 0.50 108.0 -

Standard Chartered Bank Sep 4.2 - - - - 0.50 113.0 -

UBS Sep 4.7 5.4 5.5 2.1 - 0.50 - -


British Chambers of Commerce Oct 4.6 5.4 5.5 2.7 - 0.50 105.0 -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 4.6 4.9 5.2 2.7 79.5 0.50 110.9 2.2

Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - - - - -

CBI Nov * 5.0 5.5 5.5 2.4 79.6 0.50 111.7 -

CEBR Oct 4.5 4.8 5.0 2.4 -2.0 w 0.50 105.0 -

Economic Perspectives Nov * 4.5 5.5 5.3 2.5 75.0 0.50 95.0 3.0

Experian Business Strategies Oct 4.2 5.5 5.1 2.5 80.2 0.50 107.9 -

EIU Nov * 4.9 5.4 5.2 2.4 78.0 0.50 108.5 -

IHS Global Insight Nov * 4.9 5.4 5.4 2.3 - 0.50 110.9 -

ITEM Club Oct 4.8 5.0 5.2 -3.0 79.6 0.90 - -1.1

Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 4.4 - 5.0 5.4 79.4 - - -

NIESR Nov * 4.5 5.7 5.1 1.1 j 80.5 k 0.50 108.7 n -

Oxford Economics Nov * 4.7 5.0 5.2 1.3 81.0 0.50 110.2 -1.6

EC Nov * 4.2 - - 2.0 - - 111.1 -

OECD Jun 3.9 - - - - - 80.0 -

IMF Sep 4.5 h - - - - - - -


Independent 4.7 5.3 5.4 2.3 79.3 0.5 109.0 0.1

New (marked *) 4.8 5.4 5.4 2.5 79.2 0.5 109.2 0.0

City 4.8 5.4 5.5 2.4 79.7 0.5 110.1 -0.4


Highest 5.0 5.7 5.7 5.4 82.6 0.90 115.0 3.0

Lowest 4.2 4.8 5.0 -3.0 75.0 0.50 95.0 -1.6

Median 4.7 5.4 5.4 2.5 79.6 0.50 110.5 -0.8

OBR Mar 4.7 3.9 2.0 81.1 - 113.0 i -

3.9

Table 2 - 2011: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)

CP

I (Q

4)

RP

I (Q

4)

RP

IX (

Q4)

Ave

rage

ear

nin

gs

Ste

rlin

g in

dex

(Q

4)

(Jan

200

5=10

0)

Off

icia

l Ban

k ra

te

(Q4,

%)

Oil

pri

ce (

Bre

nt,

$/b

bl)

M4



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul - - 0.7 1.60 3.1 - -27.0 200.0 125.0

Barclays Capital Nov * 0.6 y -2.0 0.5 1.54 2.7 - -10.5 275.0 127.6

Capital Economics Nov * -2.0 y -2.0 0.3 1.60 2.8 6.0 -20.0 275.0 130.0 s

Citigroup Nov * -1.2 xy -2.6 -0.3 1.66 2.2 - -3.3 200.0 133.2

Commerzbank Nov * 1.3 y -1.1 0.7 1.63 2.8 5.8 -24.5 275.0 132.0

Daiwa Capital Markets Jul -3.1 z -2.6 0.5 1.55 3.1 - -33.0 200.0 132.0

Deutsche Bank Nov * -1.0 xy -1.0 - 1.63 2.9 - -38.4 250.0 125.0

Goldman Sachs Nov * - - 0.1 1.51 3.0 - -4.3 - 121.0

HSBC Nov * - - - - 2.2 - -27.3 - 122.0

ING Financial Markets Nov * -4.5 x -1.5 0.0 1.60 2.4 - -29.0 275.0 126.0

J P Morgan Jul - - - - - - -22.4 - 118.0

Lombard Street Jul -2.5 k -0.5 0.3 - - - -29.6 200.0 125.0

Morgan Stanley Oct - -1.0 0.5 - 2.1 - - 275.0 128.3

Nomura Nov * -0.1 z - -0.2 - - - -11.2 - 125.0

RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * - -0.5 0.6 1.66 3.8 - -17.0 275.0 126.0

Schroders Investment Management Nov * -2.3 x - - - - - - 245.0 -

Scotia Capital Oct 0.6 y - 0.4 1.67 2.1 - - 275.0 -

Societe Generale Nov * -0.7 x - 0.4 1.67 2.8 - -14.0 250.0 128.0

Standard Chartered Bank Sep - - - 1.60 - - - 200.0 125.0

UBS Sep - - - 1.52 2.4 - -29.9 - 110.0


British Chambers of Commerce Oct 0.5 x - - 1.65 2.5 4.5 o -34.0 275.0 126.9

Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 0.7 z - -0.3 1.62 2.5 6.6 -22.3 275.0 132.9

Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - 3.0 - - - -

CBI Nov * -0.7 z -2.0 -0.1 1.64 2.8 - -10.3 - 129.5

CEBR Oct -0.9 k -1.6 -0.1 1.60 2.3 - - 275.0 146.0

Economic Perspectives Nov * -2.0 x -1.5 0.6 1.60 2.2 7.0 -26.0 200.0 132.0

Experian Business Strategies Oct -0.9 z -2.2 -0.4 1.76 2.3 - -62.9 - 129.2

EIU Nov * - -2.0 0.2 1.66 2.6 - -24.2 275.0 129.0

IHS Global Insight Nov * -2.1 x -2.5 0.4 1.65 2.3 - -16.2 275.0 129.5

ITEM Club Oct - - 0.7 1.53 3.0 7.6 -38.3 - 128.6

Liverpool Macro Research Nov * - - - - - - -18.0 - 120.2

NIESR Nov * -1.0 hz -1.8 0.5 2.54 hp - 7.0 -18.5 - 141.6

Oxford Economics Nov * -0.7 z -1.9 -0.2 1.64 3.1 7.4 -14.5 - 125.2

EC Nov * - - 0.9 7.90 hq - - -2.5 a - 8.6 a

OECD Jun - - - 8.10 hq - - -1.5 a - 8.7 ah

IMF Sep - - - 7.80 hq - 7.5 -2.7 a - - ah


Independent -0.9 -1.7 0.2 1.6 2.6 6.9 -22.4 258.1 128.0

New (marked *) -1.2 -1.7 0.3 1.6 2.7 6.6 -18.2 255.8 127.8

City -0.9 -1.5 0.2 1.6 2.8 5.9 -18.1 259.4 126.6


Highest 1.3 -0.5 0.9 1.76 3.8 7.6 -3.3 275.0 146.0

Lowest -4.5 -2.6 -0.4 1.51 2.1 5.8 -62.9 200.0 110.0

Median -0.9 -1.8 0.4 1.63 2.6 7.0 -20.0 275.0 128.0

OBR Mar -2.3 hz -0.4 -0.1 1.56 6.9 -41 - 122

Ho

use

pric

e in

flati

on

(Q4)

-

Table 3 - 2011: Growth in other selected variables (% change)

Rea

l ho

useh

old

disp

osa

ble

inco

me

Em

plo

ymen

t gr

ow

th

Cla

iman

t

unem

plo

ymen

t

(Q4,

mill

ions

)

Man

ufac

turi

ng o

utpu

t

Wo

rld

trad

e in

go

ods

and

serv

ices

Cur

rent

acc

oun

t (£

bn)

Siz

e o

f AP

F p

urch

ases

(£bn

)

PS

NB

(£b

n 20

11-1

2)



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 2.3 1.4 -1.3 5.6 0.1 - - - 0.7 -

Barclays Capital Nov * 1.5 0.5 -0.9 5.1 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.6 0.4 -

Capital Economics Nov * 0.0 -1.5 -0.5 3.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 -1.0 0.1 -

Citigroup Nov * 0.7 0.1 0.5 -2.1 -0.1 -0.3 5.1 1.9 1.0 -

Commerzbank Nov * 1.2 0.6 -0.5 3.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 1.7 0.3 -2.7

Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 1.7 0.8 -2.0 5.5 -0.1 0.9 6.7 3.6 0.8 -3.7

Deutsche Bank Nov * 1.3 1.0 -1.2 2.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 1.2 0.4 -

Goldman Sachs Nov * 1.3 1.2 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.1 0.3 -3.0 k

HSBC Nov * 1.3 1.2 -0.8 4.5 0.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 - -

ING Financial Markets Nov * 0.8 0.0 -1.6 4.7 0.3 0.6 7.2 6.5 0.1 -

J P Morgan Jul 2.4 1.5 -1.0 8.2 0.2 - 6.5 4.0 0.6 -

Lombard Street Jul 2.3 1.4 -1.0 6.1 -0.2 1.4 5.6 2.4 0.9 -2.8

Morgan Stanley Oct 1.1 0.4 -1.6 2.6 0.0 0.3 5.0 2.1 0.9 -

Nomura Nov * 1.5 1.4 -1.0 3.7 0.3 1.5 3.9 3.7 0.0 -2.1

RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 1.0 0.4 -0.2 2.8 - 0.7 2.9 1.9 0.3 -

Schroders Investment Management Nov * -0.4 0.1 3.2 1.5 -0.3 0.0 -3.3 -2.1 -0.3 -1.0

Scotia Capital Oct 0.7 -0.5 -0.8 4.5 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.4 0.6 -2.7

Societe Generale Nov * 0.7 -0.5 -0.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 0.5 0.6 -

Standard Chartered Bank Sep 1.9 1.6 -1.1 4.5 0.4 1.6 6.2 4.8 0.3 -

UBS Sep 1.5 1.4 -1.1 4.0 0.1 1.3 6.9 5.8 0.2 -


British Chambers of Commerce Oct 1.6 0.5 -0.9 1.8 0.1 0.4 3.0 1.5 0.9 -1.3

Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 2.3 3.0 -0.9 6.2 0.5 2.9 8.4 9.9 -0.6 -

Cambridge Econometrics Nov * 1.5 0.9 -1.2 3.8 0.0 0.9 5.2 3.4 0.5 -

CBI Nov * 1.2 0.0 -1.1 3.2 0.1 0.4 4.3 1.7 0.8 -

CEBR Oct 0.7 0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.1 0.6 2.4 2.0 0.1 -

Economic Perspectives Nov * 2.0 0.5 -1.2 9.2 0.0 1.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 -

Experian Business Strategies Oct 1.1 1.1 -1.7 1.7 0.1 0.6 3.5 1.7 0.5 -

EIU Nov * 0.7 0.4 -1.0 2.5 0.0 0.4 2.9 1.5 0.4 -

IHS Global Insight Nov * 0.8 0.9 -1.2 4.5 - 0.8 2.2 2.1 0.0 -

ITEM Club Oct 1.5 0.7 -1.0 5.1 0.1 1.0 5.4 4.1 0.4 -

Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 2.2 2.2 c -2.8 m 6.5 d - - - - - -

NIESR Nov * 0.8 0.7 -0.9 -4.9 0.0 -0.5 1.7 -2.4 1.3 -

Oxford Economics Nov * 1.0 0.5 -1.0 3.0 0.2 0.8 3.3 2.5 0.2 -1.5

EC Nov * 0.6 -0.5 -1.0 1.1 0.1 -0.4 3.4 0.5 0.9 -

OECD Jun 1.8 1.1 -0.7 4.2 0.1 1.2 6.1 3.7 0.6 -3.4

IMF Sep 1.6 - - - - - - - - -


Independent 1.2 0.6 -0.7 2.9 0.1 0.7 3.4 2.1 0.4 -1.9

New (marked *) 1.0 0.4 -0.6 2.7 0.1 0.5 2.7 1.4 0.4 -1.8

City 1.0 0.4 -0.6 2.7 0.1 0.6 3.0 1.8 0.4 -2.4


Highest 2.3 3.0 3.2 9.2 0.5 2.9 8.4 9.9 1.3 -1.0

Lowest -0.4 -1.5 -1.7 -4.9 -0.3 -0.5 -3.3 -2.4 -0.6 -2.7

Median 1.2 0.5 -1.0 3.0 0.1 0.6 2.9 1.7 0.4 -1.8

OBR Mar -1.2 0.0 1.0 -3.6

Table 4 - 2012: Growth in GDP and its components (% change)

GD

P

Pri

vate

co

nsu

mp

tio

n

Go

vern

men

t

con

sum

pti

on

Fix

ed in

vest

men

t

Ch

ange

in in

ven

tori

es

con

trib

uti

on

(%

of

GD

P)

Do

mes

tic

dem

and

To

tal e

xpo

rts

To

tal i

mp

ort

s

Net

tra

de

con

trib

uti

on

(% o

f G

DP

)

Ou

tpu

t G

ap (

as %

of

po

ten

tial

GD

P)

2.5 1.3 6.0 1.5 6.5 2.9



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul 2.0 3.3 - 2.8 - 1.50 - -

Barclays Capital Nov * 2.3 3.3 3.9 2.7 - 0.50 - -

Capital Economics Nov * 1.7 2.1 2.3 1.5 82.2 0.50 85.0 1.0

Citigroup Nov * 2.4 3.4 3.5 2.2 78.0 0.50 118.5 -

Commerzbank Nov * 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.4 82.1 0.50 106.3 3.0

Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 1.8 3.2 2.8 3.0 79.0 0.50 105.0 3.2

Deutsche Bank Nov * 2.5 3.2 - 3.6 84.0 0.50 115.0 3.0

Goldman Sachs Nov * 1.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 81.0 g - 121.0 8.7 k

HSBC Nov * 1.9 2.9 - 2.4 - 0.50 - -

ING Financial Markets Nov * 1.3 2.3 2.0 3.0 - 0.50 120.0 6.0

J P Morgan Jul 2.9 4.0 2.4 - - - - -

Lombard Street Jul 1.6 2.4 - 3.5 - 1.00 - 4.6

Morgan Stanley Oct 2.6 3.3 3.3 2.9 - 0.01 - -

Nomura Nov * 2.3 3.0 3.1 3.7 - 0.50 102.0 -

RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.5 78.5 0.50 105.0 -

Schroders Investment Management Nov * 0.7 0.8 1.1 - - 0.50 - -

Scotia Capital Oct 2.1 3.4 3.3 2.5 - 0.50 - -

Societe Generale Nov * 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 82.0 0.50 100.0 -

Standard Chartered Bank Sep 1.7 - - - - 0.50 101.0 -

UBS Sep 2.6 3.3 3.0 2.6 - 0.50 - -


British Chambers of Commerce Oct 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.0 - 1.00 93.0 -

Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 1.6 2.0 2.1 3.0 74.8 1.80 110.5 4.6

Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - - - - -

CBI Nov * 2.2 2.9 2.6 2.5 79.8 0.50 116.0 -

CEBR Oct 1.8 2.7 2.8 1.5 3.5 w 0.50 80.0 -

Economic Perspectives Nov * 3.2 4.0 4.0 3.0 70.0 1.50 95.0 6.0

Experian Business Strategies Oct 2.7 1.9 3.1 2.1 80.7 0.50 102.3 -

EIU Nov * 3.4 3.6 3.7 2.7 77.1 0.50 94.5 -

IHS Global Insight Nov * 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 - 0.50 107.4 -

ITEM Club Oct 1.8 2.5 2.1 -0.5 78.7 1.10 - 0.9

Liverpool Macro Research Nov * 2.8 - 3.2 4.3 78.4 - - -

NIESR Nov * 1.7 2.5 2.1 3.3 j 80.8 k 0.50 113.1 n -

Oxford Economics Nov * 1.9 2.2 2.1 2.3 79.8 0.50 96.0 2.6

EC Nov * 2.5 - - 2.5 - - 103.8 -

OECD Jun 1.7 - - - - - 80.0 -

IMF Sep 2.4 h - - - - - - -


Independent 2.2 2.8 2.8 2.6 79.0 0.6 103.6 3.4

New (marked *) 2.2 2.7 2.7 2.8 79.3 0.6 105.7 3.6

City 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.7 81.1 0.5 108.1 3.2


Highest 3.4 4.0 4.0 4.3 84.0 1.80 121.0 6.0

Lowest 0.7 0.8 1.1 -0.5 70.0 0.01 80.0 0.9

Median 2.2 2.9 2.8 2.7 79.3 0.50 103.0 3.0

OBR Mar 3.4 2.7 2.2 81.0 - 112.0 i -

Ste

rlin

g in

dex

(Q

4)

(Jan

200

5=10

0)

Off

icia

l Ban

k ra

te

(Q4,

%)

Oil

pri

ce (

Bre

nt,

$/b

bl)

M4

2.2

Table 5 - 2012: Growth in prices and monetary indicators (% change)

CP

I (Q

4)

RP

I (Q

4)

RP

IX (

Q4)

Ave

rage

ear

nin

gs



City forecasters

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Jul - - 0.6 1.50 4.4 - -18.0 200.0 107.0Barclays Capital Nov * 4.4 y 0.7 0.0 1.64 1.1 - 2.9 275.0 111.2Capital Economics Nov * -5.0 y -2.0 -1.5 1.90 -1.2 3.0 -20.0 400.0 115.0 sCitigroup Nov * -1.8 xy -0.5 -0.6 1.76 1.4 - 27.5 500.0 125.5Commerzbank Nov * -0.8 y 1.3 -0.2 1.79 0.1 4.3 -28.7 350.0 113.0Daiwa Capital Markets Jul 1.7 z -0.4 -0.1 1.52 3.1 - -24.0 200.0 111.0Deutsche Bank Nov * -2.5 1.8 - 1.84 0.5 - -38.3 325.0 110.0Goldman Sachs Nov * - - 0.4 1.63 3.9 - 11.1 - 108.0HSBC Nov * - - - - 1.1 - -26.0 - 98.0ING Financial Markets Nov * -2.0 x 1.6 0.4 1.55 2.5 - -34.0 500.0 110.0J P Morgan Jul - - - - - - -9.9 - 91.0Lombard Street Jul 2.9 k 1.4 0.6 - - - -28.5 200.0 95.0Morgan Stanley Oct - 0.1 0.0 - 0.6 - - 325.0 104.0Nomura Nov * 2.4 z - 0.2 - - - -13.6 - 114.2RBS Global Banking & Markets Nov * - 0.3 -0.3 1.83 0.6 - -9.0 325.0 108.0Schroders Investment Management Nov * -5.7 x - - - - - - 400.0 -Scotia Capital Oct 2.4 y - -0.2 1.73 0.8 - - 350.0 -Societe Generale Nov * -2.0 x - -1.2 1.98 0.7 - -12.0 350.0 123.0Standard Chartered Bank Sep - - - 1.40 - - - 200.0 105.0UBS Sep - - - 1.50 1.4 - -21.5 - 85.0


British Chambers of Commerce Oct 2.5 x - - 1.70 2.6 4.5 o -27.0 325.0 107.7Beacon Economic Forecasting Oct 7.1 z - -0.7 1.69 1.4 14.2 -43.2 275.0 146.4Cambridge Econometrics Nov * - - - - 2.5 - - - -CBI Nov * -1.5 z 0.4 0.0 1.69 0.6 - -8.2 - 109.5CEBR Oct 2.0 k 0.4 0.0 1.70 1.3 - - 300.0 139.0Economic Perspectives Nov * 2.0 x -1.0 0.8 1.60 1.5 5.0 -20.0 325.0 110.0Experian Business Strategies Oct 1.9 z 0.4 0.1 1.58 2.0 - -36.4 - 113.1EIU Nov * - 0.2 -0.2 1.74 -0.5 - -25.0 400.0 114.0IHS Global Insight Nov * -1.6 x -0.8 -1.1 1.75 1.4 - -25.0 375.0 114.8ITEM Club Oct - - 0.1 1.63 2.4 5.2 -17.1 - 115.0Liverpool Macro Research Nov * - - - - - - -17.8 - 87.2NIESR Nov * -1.8 hz 1.0 -0.3 2.76 hp - 4.6 -8.3 - 138.1Oxford Economics Nov * -2.8 z 0.5 -0.2 1.69 1.9 4.4 o -17.5 - 111.1EC Nov * - - 0.5 8.60 hq - - -0.9 a - 7.3 aOECD Jun - - - 8.30 hq - - -0.9 a - 7.1 ahIMF Sep - - - 7.80 hq - 5.8 -2.3 a - -


Independent -0.1 0.3 -0.2 1.7 1.3 6.0 -17.7 350.0 112.8New (marked *) -1.3 0.3 -0.2 1.7 1.1 4.2 -14.5 377.1 112.1City -0.9 0.5 -0.3 1.8 1.1 3.7 -12.7 378.1 112.1


Highest 7.1 1.8 0.8 1.98 3.9 14.2 27.5 500.0 146.4Lowest -5.7 -2.0 -1.5 1.40 -1.2 3.0 -43.2 200.0 85.0Median -1.5 0.4 -0.1 1.70 1.3 5.0 -20.0 337.5 111.1

OBR Mar 0.1 hz 0.6 1.50 6.8 -34 - 101

PS

NB

(£b

n 20

12-1

3)

1.4 -

Table 6 - 2012: Growth in other selected variables (% change)

Ho

use

pric

e in

flati

on

(Q4)

Rea

l ho

useh

old

disp

osa

ble

inco

me

Em

plo

ymen

t gr

ow

th

Cla

iman

t

unem

plo

ymen

t

(Q4,

mill

ions

)

Man

ufac

turi

ng o

utpu

t

Wo

rld

trad

e in

go

ods

and

serv

ices

Cur

rent

acc

oun

t

(£bn

)

Siz

e o

f A

PF

pur

chas

es

(£bn

)


#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

Average of independent forecasts for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

GDP growth (per cent)

RPI (Q4, per cent)

#REF! #REF!

#DIV/0!

#REF!

-

0.0

1.0

2.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

CPI (Q4, per cent)

Claimant unemployment (Q4, millions)


#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

Average of independent forecasts for 2011; Current account and PSNB (2011-12)

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

Current account (£billion)

140

160

180

200

140

160

180

200

PSNB (2011-12, £billion)

100

120

100

120


#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

3.1

1.68

-18.7

131.2 #REF! #REF!

Average of independent forecasts for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation and claimant unemployment

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

3.0

4.0

5.0

3.0

4.0

5.0


RPI (Q4, per cent)

#REF! #REF!

#REF!

PU771 ISBN: 978-1-84532-674-6

-

1.0

2.0

1.0

2.0

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

1.70

1.75

CPI (Q4, per cent)



Average of independent forecasts for 2012; Current account and PSNB (2012-13)

102 5

105.0

107.5

110.0

112.5

115.0

102 5

105.0

107.5

110.0

112.5

115.0


-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15


95.0

97.5

100.0

102.5

95.0

97.5

100.0

102.5


#REF! #REF!

#REF! #REF!

Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3

months

C G CD

B G TEM C

BSC EI

UG

I NC

apE

RBS

CBI

S5.0

5.5

6.0

5.0

5.5

6.0

CPI (Q4, per cent)

CEB

RSC EC

Cap

EM

SEI

U BC ING

S SG BCC

BEF

CBI

GI

ITEM

NIE

SRN O

EFC

GC

B EBS

GS

RBS

Cam

EH

SBC

UBS

DB

SCB

IMF

Liv EP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Independent Consensus

GDP growth (per cent) C

EBR

BEF SG ITEM OEF M

S CB HSB

C

GS N C

apE

S SC BCC

EIU

GI UBS

CG DB

ING

CBI

EP EBS BC RBS N

IESR

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Independent consensus

RPI (Q4, per cent)

EBS

SCB

ECLi

v MS

CEB

REP N

IESR BC

CBE

F HSB

CO

EF GS

ING

UBS C

G BC D SG IT

4.0

4.5

4.0

4.5



Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2011; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2011-

12) made in last 3 months

GS UBS ITEM

BC

Cap

E

ING

SCB

CEB

R

EP BEF

DB

CB CBI

OEF

BCC

GI RBS

EIU

CG SC SG

EBS

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20



M BCC UBS ING

HSB

C

EP CB

EIU BE

F Cap

E

NIE

SR

Liv RBS GI OEF

SG

N BC CBI

GS CG

30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

-20

-10

0

10

20Current account (£billion)

UBS

Liv GS HSB

C

N DB

SCB

OEF

ING

RBS BC

C

BC SG MS

ITEM

EIU

EBS

CBI

GI C

B

EP BEF

CG

NIE

SR CEB

R

80

100

120

140

160

180

80

100

120

140

160

180



EBS

DB

ITE B

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30



Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; GDP growth, CPI and RPI inflation made in the last 3

months

EF Cap

EG

SSG SC

BN

IESR

CEB

RIT

EM OEF

HSB

CSC G

I CBI

CB BC N

CG DB

ECM

SR

BSBC

CU

BS EBS Liv

EPEI

U2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

CPI (Q4, per cent)

SC

apE

ECSC SG C

EBR

EIU

CG IN

GG

IN

IESR RBS OEF MS

EBS CBI CB DB

GS

HSB

CBC C

amE

ITEM

N UBS BC

CIM

FSC

B EPLi

v BEF

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0


GDP growth (per cent) S

SG EBS

BEF

Cap

E

OEF IN

G ITEM

NIE

SR

CB CEB

R

GS

GI CBI

HSB

C

N RBS D

B UBS BC MS

BCC

SC CG EI

U

EP

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0


RPI (Q4, per cent)

SIN

GBE

C G S S

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5



Dispersion around the independent consensus for 2012; Claimant unemployment, current account and PSNB (2012-

13) made in last 3 months

SCB

UBS IN

G EBS

EP

ITEM

GS BC

BEF

OEF

CBI BC

C

CEB

R

SC EIU GI CG C

B RBS DB

Cap

E SG

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2.20



B CC

HSB

C

EIU

GI U

BS Cap

E

EP Liv

OEF

ITEM N SG

RBS NIE

SR

CBI

BC

GS

CG

20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

20

-10

0

10

20

30

40Current account (£billion)

UBS Liv

HSB

C MS SC

B BCC

GS

RBS CBI

DB

ING

EP OEF

BC CB

EBS

EIU

N GI

ITEM

SG

CG

NIE

SR

CEB

R BEF

80

100

120

140

160

180

80

100

120

140

160

180



BEF D

B EBS ING C

B BC H E G

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20



2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1.0 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.4

4.5 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.3

5.3 3.3 2.6 3.2 3.6

1.55 1.75 1.76 1.66 1.52

-16.0 -13.9 -11.0 -5.7 -4.0

Medium-term forecasts, November 2011

This edition of the comparison contains 14 new medium-term projections for the calendar years

2011 to 2015, and the fiscal years 2011-12 to 2014-15. The table below summarises the

independent average of new forecasts.

Independent average


Inflation rate (per cent)

- CPI

- RPI

Claimant unemployment (mn)

Current account (£bn)

Independent average

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

PSNB (£bn) 129.1 117.0 98.2 81.1

Note: All the averages given are the mean and exclude non-standard entries (see notation).


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

City forecasters

0.9 1.5 2.5 2.3 2.2 Barclays Capital * 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.8

0.8 0.0 1.5 - - Capital Economics * - - - -

0.9 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.8 Citigroup * 2.6 3.0 2.4 1.9

0.9 1.2 1.9 1.8 1.8 Commerzbank * 2.5 1.6 1.4 1.6

1.4 2.0 2.9 3.0 2.9 Daiwa Capital Markets - - - -

0.9 0.8 2.3 2.2 2.2 ING * - - - -

1.2 1.8 - - - Morgan Stanley 3.9 3.3 - -

0.9 1.5 2.0 - - Nomura * - - - -

1.0 1.0 1.8 2.0 - RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - -

0.9 -0.4 0.9 1.7 2.2 Schroders IM * - - - -

1.1 1.9 - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - -

1.1 2.1 - - - UBS - - - -


0.9 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.6 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 3.4 3.0 3.7 5.2

1.0 1.5 - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - -

1.0 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.4 CEBR 3.1 2.5 2.6 2.7

1.3 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.1 Experian 4.0 2.2 2.0 2.0

0.9 0.8 2.0 2.4 2.6 IHS Global Insight * - - - -

1.4 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 ITEM Club 4.7 3.0 2.8 2.4

1.5 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - -

0.9 0.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 NIESR * 1.9 h 2.5 h 1.9 h 1.8 h

0.9 1.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 Oxford Economics * 1.9 1.6 2.1 2.4

1.0 1.4 2.1 2.3 2.5 Independent average 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.6

1.0 1.1 2.1 2.3 2.4 New forecasts (marked *) 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.8

1.5 2.3 2.9 3.0 3.0 Highest 4.7 3.3 3.7 5.2

0.8 -0.4 0.9 1.7 1.8 Lowest 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City forecasters

-0.8 1.0 2.9 2.4 1.9 Barclays Capital * 1.6 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.3

-0.8 -0.4 0.6 - - Capital Economics * 0.4 0.1 0.4 - -

-0.7 -0.3 0.0 1.8 2.9 Citigroup * 1.6 1.0 1.1 0.3 -0.1

-0.6 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.2 Commerzbank * 1.3 0.3 0.4 -0.4 -0.4

1.3 1.2 2.0 2.2 2.2 Daiwa Capital Markets 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6

-0.7 0.6 2.3 2.1 2.1 ING * 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

0.1 0.9 - - - Morgan Stanley 1.1 0.9 - - -

-0.5 1.5 1.6 - - Nomura * 1.4 0.0 0.5 - -

-0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 1.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 -

-0.6 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 Schroders IM * 1.4 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.1

- - - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -

-0.2 1.4 - - - UBS 1.4 0.7 - - -


-0.5 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.4 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 1.2 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.0

-0.7 0.9 - - - Cambridge Econometrics * 1.4 0.5 - - -

-0.2 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 CEBR - - - - -

1.0 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.9 Experian 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2

-0.5 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.4 IHS Global Insight * 1.4 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2

0.3 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.3 ITEM Club 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.3

- - - - - Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -

-0.8 -0.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 NIESR * 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3

-0.6 0.8 1.8 2.0 2.3 Oxford Economics * 1.4 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5

-0.3 0.9 1.6 2.0 2.3 Independent average 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1

-0.6 0.7 1.6 2.1 2.4 New forecasts (marked *) 1.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0

1.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.4 Highest 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6

-0.8 -0.5 0.0 1.5 1.8 Lowest 0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.4 -1.0

Table M1: Medium-term forecasts for GDP and the GDP deflatorGDP (percentage change) GDP deflator (percentage change)

Table M2: Medium-term forecasts for domestic demand and net trade contributionDomestic demand (percentage change) Contribution of net trade to GDP growth (per cent)


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City forecasters

4.5 3.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 Barclays Capital * 5.3 3.9 3.3 3.7 3.6

4.6 2.8 1.5 - - Capital Economics * 5.3 3.2 2.1 - -

4.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.3 Citigroup * 5.3 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.3

4.5 2.9 2.0 2.1 2.5 Commerzbank * 5.2 3.2 2.7 3.1 3.6


4.5 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 ING * - - - - -

4.3 2.9 - - - Morgan Stanley 5.2 3.9 - - -

4.5 3.1 2.1 - - Nomura * 5.3 3.6 2.9 - -

4.6 3.5 2.2 2.0 - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 5.3 3.9 2.4 2.5 -

4.6 2.2 1.6 2.9 2.8 Schroders IM * 5.3 2.3 1.9 3.5 3.8

4.3 2.2 - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -

4.5 2.7 - - - UBS 5.5 4.0 - - -


4.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.2 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 5.2 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.1

- - - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -

3.9 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 CEBR 5.7 4.0 3.8 4.4 3.5

4.2 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1 Experian 5.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 2.8

4.5 2.8 2.1 2.3 2.2 IHS Global Insight * - - - - -

4.5 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.7 ITEM Club 5.2 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.0

4.2 k 3.4 k 2.2 k 2.0 k 2.0 k Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -

4.4 2.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 NIESR * 5.3 3.7 1.8 2.3 2.9

4.5 2.4 1.8 1.9 2.0 Oxford Economics * 5.2 2.7 2.5 3.0 3.7

4.4 2.6 2.0 2.2 2.2 Independent average 5.3 3.5 2.9 3.3 3.4

4.5 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.3 New forecasts (marked *) 5.3 3.3 2.6 3.2 3.6

4.6 3.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 Highest 5.7 4.0 3.8 4.4 4.1

3.9 2.2 1.5 1.5 1.7 Lowest 5.2 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City forecasters

- - - - - Barclays Capital * 0.50 0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50

82.3 82.2 84.1 - - Capital Economics * 0.50 0.50 0.50 - -

78.6 78.0 78.5 79.3 80.1 Citigroup * 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.06 2.04

79.6 81.5 81.6 81.7 83.3 Commerzbank * 0.50 0.50 0.65 1.63 2.63


- - - - - ING * 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.75 3.00

- - - - - Morgan Stanley 0.56 1.38 - - -

- - - - - Nomura * 0.50 0.50 0.50 - -

- - - - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 0.50 0.50 0.60 1.20 -

- - - - - Schroders IM * 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.00 2.00

- - - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -

- - - - - UBS 0.50 0.75 - - -


79.7 77.1 73.9 73.1 73.3 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 0.50 1.10 2.60 3.00 3.30


- - - - - CEBR 0.50 0.90 1.50 2.00 3.00

83.6 88.2 88.2 88.2 88.2 Experian 0.69 2.06 3.13 4.13 4.50

- - - - - IHS Global Insight * 0.50 0.50 0.81 1.79 3.00

80.0 78.7 77.7 76.4 75.0 ITEM Club 0.80 1.30 2.50 3.50 4.00

79.7 78.4 77.6 77.4 77.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -

80.7 k 80.6 k 81.3 k 82.2 k 83.1 k NIESR * 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.90 1.40

80.1 80.7 81.5 85.1 86.5 Oxford Economics * 0.50 0.50 0.81 1.97 3.72

80.4 80.8 80.9 81.0 81.6 Independent average 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 3.1

80.0 79.7 79.5 79.3 80.0 New forecasts (marked *) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.7 2.7

83.6 88.2 88.2 88.2 89.3 Highest 0.8 2.1 3.1 4.1 4.5

78.6 77.1 73.9 73.1 73.3 Lowest 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4

Table M3: Medium-term forecasts for CPI and RPI inflationCPI inflation (annual average, per cent) RPI inflation (annual average, per cent)

Table M4: Medium-term forecasts for the sterling index and official Bank rateSterling index (annual average, Jan 2005=100) Official Bank rate (annual average, per cent)


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City forecasters

Barclays Capital * 1.54 1.65 1.65 1.70 1.76

Capital Economics * 1.50 1.90 2.00 - -

Citigroup * 1.55 1.72 1.77 1.66 1.18

Commerzbank * 1.54 1.73 1.81 1.74 1.64

Daiwa Capital Markets 1.50 1.50 1.44 1.43 1.43

ING * - - - - -

Morgan Stanley - - - - -

Nomura * - - - - -

RBS Global Banking & Markets * 1.66 1.83 - - -

Schroders IM * - - - - -

Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -

UBS 1.44 1.50 - - -


Beacon Economic Forecasting * 1.54 1.68 1.67 1.62 1.52

Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -

CEBR 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.45 1.40

Experian 1.57 1.57 1.39 1.25 1.15

IHS Global Insight * - - - - -

ITEM Club 1.60 1.59 1.60 1.53 1.44

Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -

NIESR * 2.54 p 2.76 p 2.64 p 2.29 p 2.10 p

Oxford Economics * 1.56 1.70 1.64 1.57 1.49

Independent average 1.54 1.66 1.65 1.55 1.44New forecasts (marked *) 1.55 1.75 1.76 1.66 1.52

Highest 1.66 1.90 2.00 1.74 1.76

Lowest 1.44 1.50 1.39 1.25 1.15

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City forecasters

Barclays Capital * -0.40 y 2.30 y 6.60 y 7.10 y 4.50 y

Capital Economics * -0.80 y -4.80 y -5.20 y - -

Citigroup * -1.36 xy -0.99 xy -1.94 xy 0.23 xy 3.39 xy

Commerzbank * -0.20 y -0.70 y -1.70 y 0.90 y -0.20 y

Daiwa Capital Markets -2.70 z 0.10 z 3.50 z 4.70 z 5.70 z

ING * - x - x - x - x - x

Morgan Stanley - - - - -

Nomura * -1.15 x 2.15 x 2.42 x - -

RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -

Schroders IM * -2.70 x -5.10 x 0.30 x 1.00 x 2.00 x

Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -

UBS 1.48 x 2.00 x - - -


Beacon Economic Forecasting * -0.40 z 5.00 z 6.80 z 5.90 z 8.00 z

Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -

CEBR -1.70 k 2.30 k 3.70 k 4.70 k 5.50 k

Experian -0.50 z 1.47 z 3.04 z 3.30 z 3.26 z

IHS Global Insight * -2.50 x -3.40 x 1.70 x 4.80 x 6.80 x

ITEM Club -4.50 z 1.30 z 5.30 z 5.00 z 4.50 z

Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -

NIESR * -1.00 z -1.80 z -0.90 z 0.90 z 2.10 z

Oxford Economics * -0.80 z -1.84 z -1.54 z 1.32 z 3.68 z

Independent average -1.28 -0.13 1.58 3.32 4.10

New forecasts (marked *) -1.13 -0.92 0.65 2.77 3.78

Highest 1.48 5.00 6.80 7.10 8.00

Lowest -4.50 -5.10 -5.20 0.23 -0.20

Table M5: Medium-term forecasts for claimant unemploymentClaimant unemployment (annual average, millions)

Table M6: Medium-term forecasts for house price inflationHouse price inflation (annual average)


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

City forecasters

-10.4 2.9 -2.0 -2.2 3.1 Barclays Capital * -0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2

-20.0 -20.0 -15.0 - - Capital Economics * -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 - -

-3.3 27.5 53.2 64.2 68.7 Citigroup * -0.2 1.7 3.3 3.8 3.9

-24.5 -28.7 -21.8 -22.2 -22.4 Commerzbank * -1.6 -1.8 -1.4 -1.3 -1.3

-33.0 -24.0 -18.0 -12.0 -8.0 Daiwa Capital Markets -2.2 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.5

- - - - - ING * - - - - -

- - - - - Morgan Stanley -1.9 -1.5 - - -

-11.2 -13.6 -18.5 - - Nomura * -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 - -

-17.0 -9.0 - - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * -1.1 -0.6 - - -

- - - - - Schroders IM * - - - - -

- - - - - Standard Chartered Bank -1.8 -1.4 - - -

-13.4 -4.0 - - - UBS -0.9 -0.2 - - -


-22.3 -43.2 -49.3 -47.9 -52.8 Beacon Economic Forecasting * -1.5 -2.8 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7


- - - - - CEBR - - - - -

-29.8 -33.6 -30.5 -27.2 -22.5 Experian -1.9 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 -1.2

-16.2 -25.0 -23.2 -19.2 -16.8 IHS Global Insight * -1.1 -1.6 -1.4 -1.1 -0.9

-27.0 -6.0 15.0 34.0 46.0 ITEM Club -1.8 -0.3 0.9 1.9 2.5

-18.0 -17.8 -17.5 -17.0 -16.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -

-18.5 -8.3 -4.8 0.3 0.4 NIESR * -1.2 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.0

-14.5 -17.5 -11.4 -1.6 4.2 Oxford Economics * -1.0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 0.2

-18.6 -14.7 -11.1 -4.6 -1.5 Independent average -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2 0.0-16.0 -13.9 -11.0 -5.7 -4.0 New forecasts (marked *) -1.0 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.1

-3.3 27.5 53.2 64.2 68.7 Highest -0.2 1.7 3.3 3.8 3.9

-33.0 -43.2 -49.3 -47.9 -52.8 Lowest -2.2 -2.8 -2.9 -2.7 -2.7

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

City forecasters

127.6 111.2 87.6 71.2 Barclays Capital * -8.4 -7.0 -5.2 -4.0

130.0 125.0 110.0 105.0 Capital Economics * 8.5 7.6 6.1 5.2

133.2 125.5 108.7 90.7 Citigroup * -8.7 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3

132.0 113.0 95.0 87.0 Commerzbank * 8.7 7.2 5.9 5.2

132.0 111.0 - - Daiwa Capital Markets - - - -

126.0 110.0 82.0 54.0 ING * -7.9 -6.7 -4.8 -3.0

124.9 98.0 - - Morgan Stanley 8.1 6.0 - -

125.0 114.2 - - Nomura * 8.2 7.2 - -

126.0 108.0 - - RBS Global Banking & Markets * 8.2 6.7 - -

- - - - Schroders IM * - - - -

- - - - Standard Chartered Bank - - - -

- - - - UBS - - - -


132.9 146.4 138.0 121.1 Beacon Economic Forecasting * 8.8 9.2 8.1 6.6

- - - - Cambridge Econometrics * - - - -

123.0 104.0 85.0 69.0 CEBR 8.0 6.5 5.1 3.8

119.1 99.1 83.3 70.0 Experian 7.7 6.1 5.0 4.0

129.5 114.8 88.3 61.1 IHS Global Insight * 8.4 7.2 5.3 3.5

122.0 100.0 68.0 50.0 ITEM Club 7.9 6.0 4.0 2.8

120.2 87.2 75.5 72.0 Liverpool Macro Research * - - - -

141.6 138.1 114.6 91.2 NIESR * 9.4 8.8 7.0 5.3

125.2 111.1 82.4 57.3 Oxford Economics * 8.3 7.1 5.0 3.3

127.7 112.7 93.7 76.9 Independent average 5.0 4.3 2.9 2.3129.1 117.0 98.2 81.1 New forecasts (marked *) 4.0 3.6 2.3 1.9

141.6 146.4 138.0 121.1 Highest 9.4 9.2 8.1 6.6

119.1 87.2 68.0 50.0 Lowest -8.7 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3

Table M7: Medium-term forecasts for the current accountCurrent account (£ billion) Current account (per cent of money GDP)

Table M8: Medium-term forecasts for PSNBPSNB (£ billion) PSNB (per cent of money GDP)


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015City forecasters

Barclays Capital * - - - - -Capital Economics * - - - - -Citigroup * - - - - -Commerzbank * -2.3 -2.7 -2.6 -2.1 -1.3Daiwa Capital Markets -2.6 -2.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.6ING * - - - - -Morgan Stanley - - - - -Nomura * -2.3 -2.1 -1.7 - -RBS Global Banking & Markets * - - - - -Schroders IM * -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2Standard Chartered Bank - - - - -UBS - - - - -


Beacon Economic Forecasting * - - - - -Cambridge Econometrics * - - - - -CEBR - - - - -Experian - - - - -IHS Global Insight * - - - - -ITEM Club - - - - -Liverpool Macro Research * - - - - -NIESR * - - - - -Oxford Economics * -1.6 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 -0.2

Independent average -1.9 -2.0 -1.6 -0.8 -0.2New forecasts (marked *) -1.7 -1.8 -1.5 -0.6 -0.1

Highest -0.5 -1.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2Lowest -2.6 -2.8 -2.6 -2.1 -1.3

Table M9: Medium-term forecasts for the output gapOutput gap (percentage of potential GDP)


-4.9 -4.3

1.5 2.3

-2.1 0.7

1.60 1.73

-35.3 -13

133.7 200 0.0

2.0

4.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.6

CPI inflation(annual average, per cent)

#DIV/0! 31.23833

-

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

2.00

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Claimant unemployment (annual average, millions)

1.01.02011 2012 2013 2014 2015


-4.9 -4.3

1.5 2.3

-2.1 0.7

1.60 1.73

-35.3 -13

133.7 200

-20

-10

0

-20

-10

0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


100

120

140

100

120

140

PSNB (£billion)

40

60

80

40

60

80

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15


AA ABN AMRO

BoA Bank of America - Merrill Lynch

BC Barclays Capital

BCC British Chambers of Commerce

BEF Beacon Economic Forecasting

BP BNP Paribas

CamE Cambridge Econometrics

CapE Capital Economics

CG Citigroup

CBI Confederation of British Industry

CEBR Centre for Economics and Business Research

CB Commerzbank

DCM Daiwa Capital Markets

DB Deutsche Bank

EBS Experian Business Strategies (previously BSL)

EC* European Commission

EIU Economist Intelligence Unit

EP Economic Perspectives

GI IHS Global Insight

GS Goldman Sachs

HSBC HSBC Global Research

ING ING Financial Markets

IMF* International Monetary Fund

ITEM ITEM Club

JPM JP Morgan Chase

Liv Liverpool Macro Research

LS Lombard Street Research

MS Morgan Stanley

NIESR National Institute of Economic and Social Research

OECD* Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development

OEF Oxford Economic Forecasting

RBS Royal Bank Of Scotland Global Banking & Markets

SC Scotia Capital

S Schroders Investment Management

SG Societe Generale

SCB Standard Chartered Bank

UBS UBS

Annex 1: Forecasting institutions referred to in charts and tables

* Forecasts from the EC, IMF and OECD are updated when a full forecast is produced.


Annex 2: Data definitions

Code BK67

House price inflation Q4 on Q4 annual percentage change in house prices

Public sector accounts, Table PSAT 1, Code ANNX

The gap between actual output and trend (or potential) output, expressed as a percentage of trend (or potential)

National accounts, Table B1, Code CKYY

Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division

(Previously Bank of England repo rate (Q4)), Code BEDR

Brent crude, annual average

Code VQJW, calendar year (previously financial year)

National accounts, Table J2, Code NRJR

Workforce jobs, Labour market statistics, Table 4, Code DYDC

Bank of England Monetary and Financial statistics division

Private consumption

GDP

output.

Public sector finances release, Table PSF 1 /

Balance of payments release, Table A, Code HBOP

Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CZBH

Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code CDKQ

Labour market statistics, Table 15

Consumer Price Indices release, Table 1, Code D7G7

Current account (£bn)

Public Sector Net Borrowing

RPIX (Q4)

Whole Economy Average Weekly Earnings (Total Pay)

Sterling index (Q4, Jan 2005=100)

Size of APF purchases (£bn) http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/apf/index.htm

Labour market statistics, Table 10, Code BCJD

National accounts, Table C2, Code ABMI

Households + NPISH, National accounts, Table C2,

National accounts, Table C2, Code NMRY

National accounts, Table C2, Code NPQT

National Accounts, Table C2, Code CAFU

National Accounts, Table C2, Code YBIM

Code ABJR+HAYO

National Accounts, Table C2, Code IKBK

National Accounts, Table C2, Code IKBL

Employment growth

Claimant unemployment (Q4, mn)

Manufacturing Output

World trade in goods and service

Official Bank Rate (Q4)

Oil price ($ per barrel)

M4 growth

RHDI

RPI (Q4)

CPI (Q4)

Exports (goods and services)

Imports (goods and services)

General government consumption

Gross fixed investment

Change in inventories

Domestic demand

Output Gap


Annex 3: Notation used in tables

a: as a percentage of GDP

b: non-durable consumption

c: consumer expenditure less expenditure on durables and housing

d: private sector investment, stockbuilding and durable consumption

e: investment and stockbuilding combined

f: contribution to GDP growth - percentage points

g: end period

h: calendar year

i: financial year

j: compensation of employees/head

k: different definitions; refer to forecasters for details

l: 3 month interbank rate

m: general government current and capital expenditure plus stockbuilding

n: average of spot price of Brent crude and Dubai light crudeo: world trade in manufacturing

p: ILO unemployment - millions

q: ILO unemployment rate

r: PSNCR (Formerly PSBR)

s: PSNB including the effect of financial interventions

t: world GDP

u: OPEC average

v: final domestic demand

w: percentage change

x: based on Halifax house price index

y: based on Nationwide house price index

z: based on CLG house price series

aa: claimant unemployment rate

ab: treaty deficit


Organisation Contact E-mail address Telephone number

ABN AMRO Joost Beaumont [email protected] 020 628 3437

Bank of America - Merrill Lynch Nick Bate [email protected] 020 7995 4262

Barclays Capital Blerina Uruci [email protected] 020 7773 4373

Beacon Economic Forecasting David Smith [email protected] 01923 897 885

British Chambers of Commerce David Kern [email protected] 020 8904 6293

Cambridge Econometrics Ragini Madan [email protected] 01223 533100

Capital Economics Jonathan Loynes [email protected] 020 7823 5000

Citigroup Michael Saunders [email protected] 020 7986 9297

CBI David Muir [email protected] 020 7395 8102

CEBR Charles Davis [email protected] 020 7324 2863

Commerzbank Peter Dixon [email protected] 020 7653 7271

Daiwa Capital Markets Hetal Mehta [email protected] 020 7597 8338

Deutsche Bank George Buckley [email protected] 020 7545 1372

Experian Business Strategies Meera Sadier [email protected] 020 7746 8235

EC Thomas Springbett [email protected] 0032 2296 7226

EIU Neil Prothero [email protected] 020 7576 8308

Economic Perspectives Peter Warburton [email protected] 01582 696 999

Goldman Sachs Adrian Paul [email protected] -

HSBC Alexander Pefanis [email protected] -

IHS Global Insight Howard Archer [email protected] 020 3159 3563

ING Financial Markets James Knightley [email protected] 020 7767 6614

ITEM club Peter Spencer [email protected] 01904 323771

J P Morgan Allan Monks [email protected] 020 7777 1080

Liverpool Macro Research David Meenagh [email protected] 029 2087 5198

Lombard Street Research Jamie Dannhauser [email protected] 0207 382 5961

Morgan Stanley Melanie Baker [email protected] 020 7425 8607

NIESR Simon Kirby [email protected] 020 7222 7665

Nomura Philip Rush [email protected] 2071029595

Oxford Economics Elizaveta Ross [email protected] 01865 268 224

Royal Bank of Scotland Ross Walker [email protected] 020 7085 3670

Scotia Capital Alan Clarke [email protected] 0207 826 5986

Schroders Investment Management Azad Zangana [email protected] 020 7658 2671

Societe Generale Brian Hilliard [email protected] 020 7676 7165

Standard Chartered Bank Sarah Hewin [email protected] 020 7885 6251

UBS Nishit Mittal [email protected] -

Annex 4: Organisation contact details


HM Treasury contacts

This document can be found in full on our website at: hm-treasury.gov.uk

If you require this information in another language, format or have general enquiries about HM Treasury and its work, contact:

Correspondence and Enquiry Unit HM Treasury 1 Horse Guards Road London

SW1A 2HQ

Tel: 020 7270 5000 Fax: 020 7270 4861

E-mail: [email protected]

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