uk centre for the measurement of government activity mariagrazia luciano oecd conference 3-5 october...
TRANSCRIPT
UK Centre for the Measurement of
Government Activity
Mariagrazia Luciano
OECD conference 3-5 October 2006
Measurement of non-market output in Education
Summary
• Background notes: old and new methodology• Measurement of Education Output• Education Productivity articles• New measures of Education Output: adjusting for
quality and real earning growth• Supporting evidence: triangulation• Next steps
Background notes: old and new methodology
• Previous NA method:
Education output = Education inputs
• In 1998 introduced direct volume measure: pupil numbers and Quality Adjustment (QA) of 0.25% based on GCSE exam results - England used as a proxy for UK
• Following Atkinson Review recommendations (chapter 9): – Attendance instead of number of students for schools (AR 9.1)– Health courses, ITT and nursery places included (ARs 9.4-9.7)
Measurement of Education Output
Government Expenditure on: Volume Measure used:
Schools Pupil Attendance
Quality Adjustment
Nursery Schools and Classes Pupil Numbers (fte)
Nursery free places Number of places filled
Initial Teacher Training courses (ITT)
Number of students
Health Professional Courses Number of students
fte: full-time equivalent pupil numbers
Education output 1995 - 2004
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Years
output measure
Average change 1% per year
Currently in National Accounts
Education productivity articles
• 1st Education Productivity article published by UKCeMGA in October 2005
– output and productivity trends 1995-2004 comparing previous and new methodology
– Presenting the possible methods for quality adjustments and related debate
– Triangulation section: providing wider sources of information on the quality of Government Education services
New Education output measures
• Adjusting for Quality of output
Pupil attainment– GCSE threshold 5+ A* to C– GCSE Average Point Score
Key Stage Progress– Progress between Key Stage Tests – at age 7,11,14,16– Adjusted Key Stage – apply results to all years age 5-16
• Adjusting for Real Earning Growth
New Education output measures with quality adjustment
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
National Accounts BB05
GCSE threshold
Adjusted KS progress
New Education output measures with earnings growth
New earnings adjustment 1.5% per year
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
BB05 output
GCSE threshold
Adjusted KS progress
Supporting evidence - Triangulation
• Ofsted results – improved teaching standards
• Class size – reduction– increased classroom support
• Public assessment – improved standards
• PSA targets – progress towards targets
Next steps
• Undertake a wider consultation program to gain expert views on how to develop an appropriate method for output Quality Adjustment and Real Earnings Growth
• Improving output and inputs estimates
• Improving triangulation methods
