Ugly Baby Glasses and Global

Competition

John N. Doggett, JD, MBA, Senior Lecturer

Global Management, Entrepreneurship & Sustainable Energy

McCombs Faculty International Alumni Liaison

McCombs School of Business @ The University of Texas at Austin

john.doggett@mccombs.utexas.edu www.jndoggett.com

Strategic Inflection Points Are Scary

“A strategic inflection point is a time in

the life of a business [or a country]

when its fundamentals are about to

change. That change can mean an

opportunity to rise to new heights. But

it may just as likely signal the

beginning of the end.”

Andy Grove, Only the Paranoid Survive

Everyone Needs Ugly Baby Glasses

This Is A Matter of “Concern”

Deficits Are a Non-Partisan Addiction

Revenue and Spending - 2016

The President’s Budget

What Happens If . . . ?

*Expected future yields on 3-month U.S. dollar deposits held in banks outside of the United States

Is America In A Bubble?

If the Yield Curve Inverts . . .

America is Addicted to Debt

1980 = $ 0.91 Trillion

1990 = $ 3.17 Trillion

2000 = $ 5.67 Trillion

2004 = $ 7.54 Trillion

2008 = $10.57 Trillion

Today = $18.12 Trillion

2019 = $20.44 Trillion www.usdebtclock.org

USA Owes China, Inc. $1.59 Trillion May 2008 (Billion $)

Japan= $575.3

China = $506.8

UK = $271.2

Oil Exporters = $164.2

Brazil = $151.4

Caribbean Banking

Centers = $104.5

Luxembourg = $75.2

Russia = $63.7

Hong Kong = $61.4

Taiwan = $38.9

Nov. 2014 (Billion $)

China = $1,250.4

Japan = $1,241.5

Belgium = $355.7

Carib Banks = $331.5

Oil Exporters = $278.9

Brazil = $264.2

Switzerland = $183.8

U.K. = $174.5

Taiwan = $170.6

Luxembourg = $167.3

Hong Kong = $165.6

http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt

China is a Savings Machine

China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves

January 1993 $20.138 Billion

November 1996 $102.306 Billion

October 2006 $1.0096 Trillion

April 2009 $2.0089 Trillion

March 2011 $3.047 Trillion

January 2013 $3.440 Trillion

January 2015 $4.010 Trillion

Total external financial assets = $5.94 trillion. State Administration of Foreign Exchange

Any Questions?

Follow the Money

China Will Soon Pass The US

Sub-Prime and Reputation

Look At The White Circle

Each Color = 1 Billion People

Another View

National GDP in 2013 (purchasing power parity)

Country GDP Real Growth %

1. United States $ 16,720,000,000,000 1.6%

2. China $13,390,000,000,000 7.7%

3. India $ 4,990,000,000,000 3.2%

4. Japan $ 4,729,000,000,000 2.0%

5. Germany $ 3,227,000,000,000 0.5%

6. Russia $ 2,553,000,000,000 1.3%

7. Brazil $ 2,416,000,000,000 2.3%

8. United Kingdom $ 2,387,000,000,000 1.8%

9. France $ 2,276,000,000,000 0.3%

10. Mexico $ 1,845,000,000,000 1.2%

11. Italy $ 1,805,000,000,000 -1.8%

12. South Korea $ 1,666,000,000,000 2.8%

13. Canada $ 1,518,000,000,000 1.6%

14. Spain $ 1,389,000,000,000 -1.3%

CIA World Factbook – January 30, 2015

China’s Growth is Slowing

Can India Make This Happen?

Can India Make a Move Now?

A Tale of Two CountriesChina

Per Capita GDP $9,800

Population

Growth Rate 0.44%

Infant

Mortality 14.79 per 1,000

Literacy 95.1%

Male 97.5%

Female 92.7%

India

Per Capita GDP $4,000

Population

Growth Rate 1.25%

Infant

Mortality 43.19 per 1,000

Literacy 62.8%

Male 75.2%

Female 50.8%

Growth Is King

Indians and Chinese will = 50% in 50

Dr. P. Konana, McCombs Business School, University of Texas at Austin

A Swarm of Inflection Points

India - Total Trade

$0

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Japan - Total Trade

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$ B

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China - Total Trade

$0

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$ B

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1964-70 1989-94

2000-2005

THE GROWING IMPORTANCE

OF CHINA’S ECONOMY

Say Hello to the New Players

Enter Alibaba

China’s Nicaraguan Canal

Accurate or Over the Top?

America’s EB-5 Visa Program

Steel is Another Growth Indicator

Will China Grow Old Before It Grows Rich?

Tidal Power

Very Straight Forward Technology

French 240 MW Tidal Power Plant - 1967

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Rance_tidal_power_plant.JPG

If The French Can Do It . . .

Under Construction Today

1,320 MW Incheon Tidal Power Station built

around islands west of Incheon. Plant will

be completed in June 2017. Will generate

2.41 TWh annually.

Chinese Tide-Driven Turbine Farm

Chinese Dynamic Tidal-Power Wall

Another Take on Hydro

NASA/JPL/Cal Tech Prototype

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion

Chinese Ocean Thermal-Energy

Conversion

Ocean Energy for Fresh Water

This is the Holy Grail

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