udia wa property market statistics june 2018 · march, 2018 (landgate) top suburbs for vacant land...

1

JUNE 2018 UDIA WA PROPERTY MARKET STATISTICS

2

IN THIS ISSUE

KEY TRENDS

INDUSTRY UPDATE

ECONOMY

RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

3

4

5

6

7

8

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https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/UDIA-Urban-Intelligence

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KEY TRENDS

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change

Median House Price - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) $510,000 (Mar) -1.9% (Q) $513,333 (Q) -1.2%

House Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 5,238 (Mar) -6.6% (Q) 5,497 (Q) -15.6%

Unit Sales - Perth (Landgate/REIWA) 1,229 (Mar) -6.8% (Q) 1,280 (Q) -16.1%

House and Unit Listings - Perth (REIWA) 14,410 (Mar) 10.2% (Q) 13,508 (Q) -2.9%

Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 3,308 (Apr) -7.4% (M) 3,395 (M) -6.1%

Established Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 2,353 (Apr) -8.7% (M) 2,436 (M) -5.4%

FHOG Applications - WA (Original) 662 (May) 29.3% (M) 612 (M) -19.5%

Investment Housing Loans - WA (Original) $528.3m (Apr) -11.5% (M) $559.2m (M) -8.2%

REIWA Average Selling Days - Perth 70 (Mar) 11.1% (Q) 68.7 (Q) -2.8%

Residential Rental Market Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change

REIWA Median Rent - Perth 360 (Mar) 1.4% (Q) 355 (Q) -2.7%

REIWA Vacancy Rate - Perth 5.1% (Mar) -40 bps (Q) 5.8% (Q) -140 bps

RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change

Lot Sales (UDIA Land Snapshot ) 396 (June 2018) 49.4% (M) 292 (M) -0.3%

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change

Dwelling Approvals - WA (Original) 1,638 (May) 28.0% (M) 1,352 (M) -7.5%

Private Sector House Approvals - WA (Original) 1,152 (May) 20.1% (M) 1001 (M) -13.8%

New Dwelling Loans Owner-Occupation - WA (Original) 4,627 (Apr) -6.4% (M) 4,768 (M) -5.1%

Dwelling Construction Starts - WA (Original) 5,354 (Dec) 11.1% (Q) 4,938 (Q) 12.2%

House Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 959 (May) 14.2% (M) 852 (M) -6.9%

Multi-Unit Approvals - Greater Perth (Original) 420 (May) 85.0% (M) 283 (M) 6.1%

ECONOMY Current Figure M/Q Change 3 M/Q Rolling Av. YOY Change

Official Cash Rate Target (RBA) 1.5% (July) 0% (M) 1.5% (M) 0.00%

Discounted Variable Mortgage Rate (RBA) 4.50% (Jun) 0 bps (M) 4.50% (M) 0 bps

Estimated Resident Population - WA 2,563,373m (Dec) 0.1% (Q) 2,560,362m (Q) 0.6%

Unemployment Rate - WA (Seasonally Adj.) 6.5 (Apr) -98 bps (M) 6.9 (M) 62 bps

Retail Turnover - WA (Original) $2.66 b (Apr) -5.6% (M) $2.65b (M) -1.4%

Consumer Price Index - Greater Perth 110.0 (Mar) 0.1% (Q) 109.8 (Q) 0.9%

Wage Price Index - WA 128.5 (Mar) 0.3% (Q) 128.1 (Q) 1.5%

4

According to Colin’s comprehensive

market research, Perth is currently

averaging 462 new lot sales per

month with a median lot price of

$224,000. We have reached the

bottom of this market cycle and the

expectation is for moderate growth in

the next two to three years.

Putting this in context with other

markets in Australia, Melbourne is

averaging 1,450 lot sales per month with a median price of $330,000

while Sydney is achieving 610 sales per month with a median of

$468,000. Both of these markets have experienced a decline in

sales numbers over the last two to three quarters as they reached

their peak in 2017.

Perth is currently the cheapest greenfield land market across the

capital cities, with Colin estimating that lots are priced around $6,000

under the fair market value of $230,000 or 46% of the Perth median

house price. This is despite our lot size being the smallest in the

country at 375sqm.

The question is, how does the Perth market lift activity to reach the

target of 700 lot sales per month?

Figure 1: Source: Colin Keane, Research4 presentation 29-06-2018

Research4 data suggests that we need to lift our population net gain

by 1000 persons per month and create 500 extra jobs per month in

order to generate enough demand for 700 lots per month.

The estimate for new job creation is based on the ratio over the last

ten years between actual job growth in persons and actual new land

sales. In that period, for every 100 jobs created, 45 new lots were

sold.

Perth’s ratio of 45:100 is much higher than other cities, highlighting

our reliance on jobs, particularly in the mining industry, to foster

demand for property.

Moving forward, Colin recommends that Perth market the lifestyle

opportunities that are available here to attract more people, loosening

our reliance on jobs growth to boost demand.

In promoting a clear brand for Perth, we can work on attracting

interstate and overseas migrants seeking an affordable, relaxed

lifestyle while remaining connected to their global networks. We can

realistically compete with the likes of Melbourne and Sydney on this

front.

Overall, the message is clear for Perth. Positive growth in the

property market is expected in the next two to three years and if we

work on a clear identity for Perth as a global city, we can continue to

grow and prosper.

UDIA WA INDUSTRY UPDATE

CHRIS GREEN

Director

Policy & Research

UDIA WA

PERTH’S GREENFIELD MARKET SET FOR GROWTH

At a recent UDIA WA Industry Luncheon, Director of Research4 Colin Keane issued a challenge for

the Perth market. In order to reach ‘normal’ market conditions and achieve positive growth in the

greenfield development market in the coming few years, we need to reach a point where we are

selling 700 lots per month.

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ECONOMY

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e (%

)

Em

plo

yed

Per

son

s (,

000)

Labour Market, WA (ABS)

Employed Persons (Original) Unemployment Rate (Seas. Adj.) Unemployment Rate (Original)

Source: ABS 6202.0, T8

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18

Ho

me

Lo

an R

ates

(%

p.a

.)

Mortgage Rates, Australia

Standard Variable

Discounted Variable

Three Year Fixed

Source: RBA, F5

-0.03

-0.01

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.07

Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

Year

-on

-yea

r ch

ang

e in

Ind

ex (

calc

ula

ted

qu

arte

rly)

Consumer Price Index (ABS)

CPI - Perth (Housing) YOY Change CPI - Australia (Housing) YOY Change

CPI - Perth (All Groups) YOY Change CPI - Australia (All Groups) YOY Change

Source: ABS 6401, T 1, 5 & 7.

-0.03

-0.01

0.01

0.03

0.05

0.07

0.09

0.11

0.13

Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18

Ret

ail

Turn

ow

ver

Gro

wth

(p

.a)

Retail Turnover (ABS)

YoY WA (Original) YoY Australia (Original) YoY WA (Seas. Adj.) YoY Australia (Seas. Adj.)

Source: ABS 8501, T3

Key Points of Interest

Western Australia’s unemployment rate fell 50 basis points (bps) month-on-month (MoM) in May to sit at 6.0% (in original terms, 6.4% seasonally adjusted), 76bps higher than at the same time last year and 72bps higher than the

national rate of 5.3%.

In May, the number of employed persons in WA increased 0.5% MoM to 1.35 million, 1.5% higher than at the same

time last year.

WA’s state participation rate fell marginally (-7bps) in May to 68.9%, but remained 108bps up year-on-year (YoY) and

was also 323bps higher than the national rate of 65.7%.

In the December quarter, the population of Western Australia retained an annual growth rate of 0.8%, increasing

to total 2.58 million people.

Included within this increase in total WA population was: an increase of 4,700 (+4.2% YoY) additional people was due to natural increase; 1,697 (+17.7% YoY) additional people arrived in WA from overseas; and 3,343 (+22.5% YoY)

people left WA to live in another state or territory.

In February 2018, WA job vacancies increased 12.1% to

22,200, 24.7% higher than at the same time last year.

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RESIDENTIAL LAND DEVELOPMENT SECTOR Key Points of Interest

In June, UDIA’s Land Snapshot survey results for total lot sales increased 49.4% on those from May, and remained

steady from the same time last year.

Lot sales were positive across all price categories on a monthly basis: combined sales $200,000 (and below) increased 16.5% month-on-month (MoM) and fell 15.8% year-on-year (YoY); combined sales between $200,001-$280,000 were 2.2 times that of those in May, and 7.6% higher than at the same time last year; and combined sales

above $280,000 lifted 39.3% MoM and 25.0% YoY.

The median lot price for June increased 2.8% MoM to sit at

$227,071, 3.1% higher than in June 2017.

Monthly vacant land settlements by metropolitan corridor for March, 2018 (Landgate)

TOP SUBURBS FOR VACANT LAND SETTLEMENTS

Three months to 31 March Settlements Median Price Median Size

1 BALDIVIS 56 $187,000 445.50

2 PIARA WATERS 55 $270,000 375.00

3 BRABHAM 45 $242,000 376.00

4 WELLARD 36 $202,000 406.00

5 HAMMOND PARK 33 $226,000 300.00

Note: Settlement figures on this page are based on Landgate data available at the time of publication and may not represent all settlements during the period.

Top five suburbs for vacant land settlements for the three months to March, 2018 (Landgate)

0

100

200

300

Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18

Va

ca

nt

Lan

d

Se

ttle

me

nts

/mo

nth

Greater Perth Corridor Vacant Lot SettlementsCentral North East North West South East South West Peel

Source: UDIA/Landgate

$150

$350

$550


Me

dia

n l

ot

pri

ce

pe

r m

on

th (

tho

us

an

ds

) Greater Perth Corridor Median PricesCentral North East North West South East South West Peel


250

450

650


Med

ian

lo

t siz

e/m

on

th

Greater Perth Corridor Median Lot SizeCentral North East North West South East South West Peel


20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18

Tota

l w

ee

kly

lot

sale

s

We

ekl

y ca

tego

ry l

ot

sale

s

UDIA Land Snapshot Survey - Lot Sales

$200,000 or under Rolling 12 Month Average $200,001 - $280,000 Rolling 12 Month Average

$280,000 plus Rolling 12 Month Average Total Sales Rol ling 12 Month Average

Source: UDIA Land Snapshot Survey

Feb-18

Regions Settlements Median Price Median Lot Size

North-East Metro 61 268,000$ 437

North-West Metro 55 254,000$ 396

South-East Metro 39 254,000$ 375

South-West Metro 96 220,500$ 375

Peel 27 180,000$ 473

Central Metro 64 508,694$ 400

Vacant Land

Monthly Vacant Land Settlements by Corridor

7

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY SETTLEMENTS

TOP SUBURBS FOR DETACHED HOUSING SETTLEMENTS


1 CANNING VALE 99 $550,000 605.00

2 BALDIVIS 88 $400,000 542.00

3 BYFORD 61 $375,000 499.00

4 ELLENBROOK 60 $357,500 503.00

5 THORNLIE 58 $380,500 699.50

TOP SUBURBS FOR MEDIUM DENSITY SETTLEMENTS


1 SCARBOROUGH 122 $585,000 192.00

2 PERTH 96 $512,000 121.50

3 MAYLANDS 74 $402,500 107.50

4 COMO 69 $480,000 115.00

5 NOLLAMARA 68 $361,500 203.50

Source: Landgate/UDIA Top suburbs for detached housing and medium density settlements over the three months to March 2018. Note: Settlement figures on this page are based on Landgate data available at the time of publication and may not represent all settlements during the period.

$420,000

$440,000

$460,000

$480,000

$500,000

$520,000

$540,000

$560,000

$580,000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-16

Dec

-16

Jan-

17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8


Median Price/Settlements

Greater Perth

Median Price Detached Houses Settlements Detached Houses

$-

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun

-16

Jul-

16

Au

g-16

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-16

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-

17

Au

g-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-17

Dec

-17

Jan-

18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18


Median Price Detached and Non-Detached Dwellings: Greater Perth

Median Price Detached Houses Median Price Non-Detached Dwellings

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

Ap

r-1

6

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Sep

-16

Oct

-16

No

v-1

6

Dec

-16

Jan

-17

Feb

-17

Mar

-17

Ap

r-1

7

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-1

7

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-18

Source: Landgate/UDIA/Treasury (WA)

Vacant Land Settlements, Median Price:

Greater Perth and FHOG Applications

Median Price Vacant Land

Settlement Vacant Land

First Home Buyer Grant Applications - new build

0 20 40 60 80 100

Detached Housing Gascoyne

Detached Housing Goldfields Esperance

Detached Housing Great Southern

Detached Housing Mid West

Detached Housing Pilbara

Detached Housing South West

Detached Housing Wheatbelt

Non-Detached Housing Gascoyne

Non-Detached Housing Goldfields Esperance

Non-Detached Housing Great Southern

Non-Detached Housing Mid West

Non-Detached Housing Pilbara

Non-Detached Housing South West

Non-Detached Housing Wheatbelt

Regional Dwelling Settlements April 18


0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Vacant Land Gascoyne

Vacant Land Goldfields Esperance

Vacant Land Great Southern

Vacant Land Mid West

Vacant Land Pilbara

Vacant Land South West

Vacant Land Wheatbelt

Regional Land Settlements April 18


8

RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET Key Points of Interest

In April, the number of dwelling finance commitments for WA owner-occupiers fell 6.4% month-on-month (MoM) to sit

at 4,627, 5.1% down on the same time last year.

Included within total WA owner-occupier housing finance commitments: commitments for the construction of dwellings fell 1.0% MoM and 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) to 793; commitments for the purchase of new dwellings were down 16.5% MoM and 17.8% YoY to 162; and commitments for the purchase of established housing also

fell 7.0% MoM and 4.4% YoY to 3,672.

The number of dwellings financed by first home buyers (FHB) in April fell 5.6% MoM to 1,164, but was 2.4% higher than at the same time last year. The average loan size for FHBs increased 3.0% MoM and 4.3% YoY to sit at

$318,500.

In April, dwellings financed by non-FHB fell 6.7% in number to sit at 3,463, which was 7.4% lower than in April 2017. However, the average non-FHBs loan size increased 3.7%

MoM and 6.1% YoY to $368,800.

The mean price of WA residential dwellings for the March quarter fell by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to $533,400,

0.9% higher than at the same time last year.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


Ow

ner

Occ

up

ier

Loan

Co

mm

itm

ents

(mo

nth

ly)

Owner Occupier Housing Finance, WA (ABS)

Construction of dwellings (WA) Purchase of new dwellings (WA)

Refinancing of established dwellings (WA) Purchase of established dwellings (WA)

Total housing finance commitments (WA)

Source: ABS 5609.0, T10a (Original Data)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

1650


AU

Dw

ellin

g Fi

nan

ce ($

m/m

on

th)

WA

Dw

ellin

g Fi

nan

ce ($

m/m

on

th)

Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing (ABS)

WA Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing

WA Rolling 3 month average

AU Dwelling Finance for Investment Housing

AU Rolling 3 month average

Source: ABS 5671.0, T15 & 23 (Original Data)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


Ho

me

Loan

Co

mm

itm

ents

Ave

rage

Ho

me

Loan

Am

ou

nt ($

thou

san

ds)

Dwelling Finance, WA (ABS)

FHB: Average Loan Size Non-FHB: Average Loan Size

FHB: Dwellings Financed Non-FHB: Dwellings Financed

Source: ABS 5609.0, T9b (Original Data)

-5%

0%

5%

10%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17

Qu

arte

rly

Vari

ance

& V

acan

cy R

ate

(%)

Med

ian

Ho

use

Ren

t (Q

uar

terl

y)

Perth Metropolitan Rent (REIWA)

Quarterly variance - Median House Rent

Vacancy rate

Median House Rent

Source: REIWA

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Ho

use

an

d U

nit

Lis

tin

gs (Q

uar

terl

y)

Residential Property Listings, Perth Metro (REIWA)

Source: REIWA

9

RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Dec-2007 Dec-2009 Dec-2011 Dec-2013 Dec-2015 Dec-2017

Re

sid

en

tial

Co

nst

ruct

ion

(dw

ell

ings

pe

r q

uar

ter)

Residential Construction, WA (ABS)

Houses Commenced Dwellings Commenced

Houses Completed Dwellings Completed

Source: ABS 8752.0, T34 & T38 (Original Data)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

May-2008 May-2010 May-2012 May-2014 May-2016 May-2018

Ne

w B

uil

din

g J

ob

s ($

m/m

on

th)

Alt

era

tio

ns

& A

dd

itio

ns

($m

/mo

nth

)

Value of Building Jobs, WA (ABS)

Alterations & Additions, Including Conversions Alterations & Additions, Including Conversions (Trend)

New Construction New Construction (Trend)

Source: ABS 8731.0, T34

Key Points of Interest

WA building approvals for houses increased 15.3% over May to 1,206, 11.4% lower than at the same time last year. House building approvals for Greater Perth, which made up 79.5% of those for WA, also rose 14.2% month-on-month

(MoM) to 959 and fell 6.9% year-on-year (YoY).

In May, building approvals for WA dwellings increased 84.6% YoY and 32.5% MoM to 432. Those located in Greater Perth also lifted 85.0% MoM to 420, 37.7% higher

than at the same time last year.

The total value of new residential building jobs in WA lifted 31.3% MoM in May to sit at $570.7 million, 12.0% higher

than in May 2017.

Of this total: the value of residential building jobs for alterations and additions (including conversions) rose 19.1% MoM and 0.6% YoY to $57.8 million; and the value of residential building jobs for new construction also increased

32.8% MoM and 13.4% YoY to $512.9 million.

The value of private sector building jobs for WA houses increased 23.3% in May to $350.3 million, 1.7% lower than at the same time last year. The value of jobs for other residential dwellings lifted 96.0% MoM and 60.8% YoY to

$146 million.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

May-2008 May-2010 May-2012 May-2014 May-2016 May-2018

Bu

ild

ing

Ap

pro

vals

(dw

elli

ngs

/mo

nth

)

Building Approvals,

WA & Greater Perth (ABS)

WA Houses WA Other Dwellings Perth Houses Perth Other Dwellings

Source: ABS 8731.0, T5 & 10

0

500

1,000

1,500

May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18

FHOG Applications & Payments for New Dwellings

FHOG Paid for New Dwellings

FHOG Paid 3 Month Rolling Average

FHOG Applications for New Dwellings

FHOG Applications 3 Month Rolling Average

Source: Treasury

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

Val

ue

of

Bu

ildin

g Jo

bs

($m

/mo

nth

) Value of House/Other WA Residential

Building Jobs (ABS)

Houses

Other Residential

Source: ABS 8731.0, Table 47

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/UDIA-Urban-Intelligence

10

Urban Development Institute of Australia (UDIA) WA P: (08) 9215 3400 E: [email protected] Disclaimer While the data has been collected with due care for the purpose of reporting property market and general economic trends, no responsibility can be taken regarding its accuracy and individuals should conduct their own specific research before making any decisions. Information provided in this publication should not be taken as a guarantee of specific future movements in the market, but rather as an indication of historical market trends. All or part of this document may not be reproduced, published or included in any report without the approval of the UDIA (WA Division) as to the form and context in which it will appear.

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udia wa property market statistics june 2018 · march, 2018 (landgate) top suburbs for vacant land...

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