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Shaping the Dublin of 2020: Meeting Future Challenges for
Managing the Urban Environmentg g
Dr. Brendan Williams
UCD School of Geography, Planning & Environmental Policy
15th May 2009
Institiúid na gCóras Domhanda
An Coláiste Ollscoile Baile Átha CliathEarth Systems Institute
University College Dublin
Web: www.ucd.ie/earthEmail: [email protected]
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‘Decision Support Tools for
Managing Urban Environment in Ireland’ iron
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Shaping the Dublin of 2020: Usingevidence based approaches to examine n
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recent experience and future challengesfor managing the urban environment
ect
OverviewU
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• Environmental Management and concerns –Climate change a
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Climate change
• Urban management Plans and Realities
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• Issues Arising
• Evidence Based Analysis
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• Alternative Approaches and Supporting evidence: Land use led and Reformed /Integrated Managed Process e
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Process
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UEP• Conclusions
NSS Dublin andMid-East
t oBel fastan d Larn e
Du nda lk
t oDerry an dDo n eg al
Newry
Mid East
t o Cav anan d Do n eg al
Ard ee
NDro g h ed aOldc as t l e• Balancing of advantages and burdens
Lay t o wn /Bet ty st o wn /M o rn i n g t o n
Du leek
Tri m
t o M u ll i n g ar ,Tu ll amo rean d At h l o n e
t o S l ig o ,C l b
Nav an
Bal b rig g an
Du n sh au g h l i n
Kel lsCea n a n n a s M o r
Athboy
Rat oat h Lu skRu sh
g gwithin a region which offers synergy effects
Du blinMetropo litanArea
Ash b o u rn eCastl eb aran d Galw ay
Lei x l ip
Du n b o y n e S w o rd s
M ay n o o th
Cl an e Cel b rid g e
Du n Lao g h ai reLu can
M u l h u d d artEnf i el d• Role of Strategic Planning Guidelines
t o Co rk ,Li merickan d Tral ee
Newt o wn mo u n t k en n ed y
Ki l co o le
Grey sto n es
Bray
Tal lag h t
M o n asterev inKi l d are
Newb ri d g eDro i ch ea d Nu a
NaasKi l l
Bl essi n g t o n
Ki l cu ll en
Rat hangan
Bal l ym or eEus t ac e
Enni ske rr y
t o W at erfo rd
Carlo w
At h y
W i ck lo w
Rat hne w
Rat hdr umBal t i ngl a ss
© Spatial Planning Unit, DoELG 2002 Used by Permission
t o W at erfo rd
t o W ex fo rdan d Ro sslare
Ark l o w
Dr. Brendan Williams, University College Dublin
Dr. Brendan Williams, University College Dublin
Three-quarters of all Europeans now liveThree-quarters of all Europeans now live in urban areas and this is expected to rise to 90 per cent by 2020 based on
current trends (EEA)
Development Plans and Urban ManagementU
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•During plan formulation and development there is no ready means of evaluating different policy options or different combinations of policy options a
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•Difficult to estimate ,evaluate or represent the effects of one option over another
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•Difficult to understand how the various interactions influence each other at different geographical and temporal scales n
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•Difficult to integrate the priorities of different sectors in the planning process (and often the organisations involved have no reliable means of debating their positions) e.g. transport e
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o e ab e ea s o debat g t e pos t o s) e g t a spo tsection, drains division etc
•Difficult to evaluate the effectiveness of land use planning as a way of managing resource use and the environmental
UEPas a way of managing resource use and the environmental effects thereof
Traditional Land Use Planning as Policy Instrument
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aZoning rules associated with maps coloured to signify uses or combinations of uses allowed
Instrumentn
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uses or combinations of uses allowed.
Draft Plans and associated maps inter alia for:– Environment and amenity (biodiversity, air quality, ro
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open space, landscape protection)– Industry and commerce (office and industrial zones and
parks) nt P
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– Recreation (parks, playgrounds, sports areas, hiking, water recreation etc), Settlement (houses, apartments)
– Solid Waste disposalT n po t ( o d il i le h bo )
ect– Transport (roads, rail, air, cycle, harbours)
– Water and sewage – reservoirs, pipes, wastewater treatment
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Key Limitations with existing approachU
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• Typically only one set of options presented for comment and feedback a
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• Difficult to establish interconnections and interdependencies between the various iro
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strands.
• Inherent design flaws. Zoning/Rezoning t d R t ti i i Ad h
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system and Retention provisions. Ad hoc.
• Planning Gain Conflicts .Land Interests and P bli I t t P t Ri ht
ectPublic Interests. Property Rights
development rights ,Infrastructure rights. Who benefits and Why.
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Who benefits and Why.
An Evidence Base: EU JRC model
Moland: A spatial dynamics model for simulating urban and regional growth. Adapted for use in 20 regions.Takes as input different types of spatially referenced digital data:• Land use (actual land use) • Accessibility (access to transport network)• Land use zoning status (legal constraints for different land uses)• Land use suitability (inherent suitability for different land uses)S i i d ( l i i d i l• Socio‐economic data (population, income, production, employment, etc.)
The model outputs maps showing the predicted land use d l d f f ddevelopment over a period of specified years.By modifying the input data, the model can be used to explore, in a realistic way, alternative spatial planning and p , y, p p gpolicy scenarios.
MOLAND uses - selected
• Comparison of a variety of ‘what-if’ scenarios
• Generation of urban atlas (EEA, 2002)
• Provide base-line data for comparison of various European urban areas
• Apply metrics and indicators for scientific analysis
• Provide input to development of European wide programmes e.g. European Common Indicators (http://ec.europa.eu/environment/urban/common_indicators.htm)
• Basis for further development of urban • Basis for further development of urban modelling approaches
Land Use Transition in MOLAND ModelU
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Input scenarios
Current land use Transport network Output indicators (examples)MOLAND urban and
How does MOLAND work?
1988 1988Output indicators (examples)
2008
Green edge
2008
Access to green areas
MOLAND urban and regional growth model
Zoning status
(Dublin)(Dublin)
Potential noise pollution
2008
Habitat suitability
Suitability
(Munich)
European Common IndicatorsVisibility of transport links
(Dublin)
Predicted land use
2008
• Population
Socio-economic statistics
p• Income
• Production• Employment
• etc.(Copenhagen)
(Trans-border Alpine site)Spatial planning and
policy recommendations and guidelines
Sample MOLAND Simulation -O t tOutput
Why is MOLAND Useful?U
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A range of what-if scenarios can be explored
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A variety of spatial planning policies can be assessed iro
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The environmental impacts of different land-use policies can be quantified n
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Provide robust framework for comparing, discussing and visualising a variety of spatial e
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discussing and visualising a variety of spatial planning policies
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Study AreaU
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Between 1996 and 2006 Ireland’s population growth was five times the European average of 3 25% (EPA 2008) a
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European average of 3.25% (EPA, 2008)
The Greater Dublin Region experienced the biggest growth nationally with an iro
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increase of 8.3% between 2002 and 2006 (CSO, 2007)
GDA Population Growth nt P
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2000000
(1926-2006)
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Greater Dublin Area0
500000
1000000
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Core OBJECTIVE of UEP ResearchU
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To test whether modified MOLAND can o e come these limitations b
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overcome these limitations by providing:
More Choices credible scenario choices to
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– More Choices - credible scenario choices todecision-makers and the public
– Interconnections - show implications (especially for ttl t d i t) f lt ti
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settlement and environment) of alternative combinations of policies in regard to zoning and land use, and transport infrastructure investmentM Cl it l f L d U Pl i P li
ect– More Clarity on role of Land Use Planning as Policy
Instrument - demonstrate the effectiveness or otherwise of land use policies.
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Demonstrating What MOLAND Can Do
• Waste water catchment area
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development study
• The impacts of new transport
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infrastructure on development patterns and the location of employment and population
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• Strategic spatial planning: compact city versus dispersed city
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Greater Dublin AreaGreater Dublin AreaWaste Water Case Study
Current and Planned W t W t T t t C it U
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Waste Water Treatment Capacityan
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Current (2009)
Planned (2020)
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Population Growth Scenarios
The population projections used in our study was based on the Central Statistics Office Regional Population Projections 2011‐2026 (CSO, 2008).
Scenario 1. Low Growth in population over 20 years (‐15% on Scenario 2)
GDA actual 2006 population and projected 2026 population for the 3 scenariosy
Scenario 2 . Medium Growth in population
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
atio
nover 20 years (CSO, 2008)
Scenario 3. Hi h G th i l ti
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
Popula
High Growth in population over 20 years (+15% on Scenario 2)
Actual 2006 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Sparse Dense
Scenario 2: population medium growth
Residential area growth in 2026 comparedResidential area growth in 2026 compared with 2006 by county for the 3 scenarios.
250%
100%
150%
200%
Gro
wth
%
0%
50%
Kildare Louth Meath Wicklow Dublin
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Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Donabatet h t catchment
area in Fingal
2006 t l2006 actual map
Donabatet h t catchment
area in Fingal
2026 Scenario 1
Donabatet h t catchment
area in Fingal
2026 Scenario 2
Donabatet h t catchment
area in Fingal
2026 Scenario 32026 Scenario 3
Residential area development in Donabate catchment area (currently W4 W7A from 2018) in Fingalarea (currently W4, W7A from 2018) in Fingal
Scenario 1: Low growth Scenario 2: Medium growth Scenario 3: High growth
Residential areas existing in 2000 Catchment boundariesResidential areas developed from 2000 to 2026
Catchment boundariesCounty boundaries
SummaryU
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y y pp p gthe spatial distribution of land uses under a range of population scenarios. This allows for h d i i
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the proposed increase in waste water treatment capacity for the region to be evaluated in a spatial context under three n
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evaluated in a spatial context under three spatially explicit scenarios of population expansion in the region. e
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Transport 21 Study
Transport N t kNetwork
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1: Orbital Route Scenario
The impacts on
An Orbital route linking Drogheda, Navan and Naas
The impacts on development patterns:
a) Without zoning for commercial development at interchanges
Orbital route added in 2016
b) With zoning for commercial development at commercial development at interchanges
Strategic Spatial Planning
Urban Development Scenarios
1. “Dispersed Development ScenarioDispersed Development Scenario” –
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ap pp pBaseline simulation – limited/no zoning restrictions
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2. “Compact City Scenario”Compact City Scenario” – All future development contained within the limits of
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the Metropolitan Area as defined by the Regional Planning Guidelines (2004).
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Population in 2026 = approximately 2.3 million, 2006 =1.8 million => population growth of 45% over
20 i d (d i d f DOEHLG (2007)
UEP20 year period (derived from DOEHLG (2007)
‘Regional Target Projections’)
Dispersed Development p
Scenario
‘Residential
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SparseDiscontinuous Urban Fabric’
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Growth in sparse di ti i
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discontinuous is very dispersed but mostly proximate
to existing
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settlements
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Compact City Compact City Scenario U
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Development is highly
concentrated h
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within ‘metropolitan’ area
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Green Infrastructure Zoning
Effect of Restricted Development Zoning
No special restrictions Restriction zoning 1
Effect of Restricted Development Zoning
No special restrictions Restriction zoning 2
Conclusion
• MOLAND as a spatial decision support system
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the formulation of planning development policies.
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• Choices and political decisions can have supporting factual evidence1 Land Use Press re Led contin ation
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• 2.Reformed Managed Development• 3 Basic Regulatory-simplified
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3.Basic Regulatory simplified.• The issue of development land UEP
UEP Research ProjectsjU
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HousingUrban
Regeneration
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PLUREL
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ctUrban Modelling Summer School
LUMAN
International Collaborative
Exchanges
UEP
Research Projects
HousingHousing Urban Regeneration
Urban Regeneration PLURELPLUREL LUMANLUMAN
SUMMER SCHOOL
Urban sprawl and Market
Fragmentation
Fiscal Incentives and urban
regeneration
Peri-urban land use
relationships –Strategies and Sustainability Assessment
Land Use Modelling and
Analysis Network
‘Spatial Simulation for
the Social Sciences’Early stage researcher
Housing Market demand 2009-
2013
Enterprise and Regeneration
Policies: The role of economic
l t FP6 Collaborative
Tools for Urban Rural Linkages
training and showcasing
state-of-the-art research. For
Irish and European
FP7 Marie Curie
International Research Staff
Exchange 2013 clusters n regeneration
startegies
FP6 Collaborative Project – 31
Partners
students. Funded by IRCHSS
Exchange Scheme with New Zealand and Belgium
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ScopeFundingAdministered by the EPA, through
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Multi-disciplinaryAir quality, Climate change,
Transport Biodiversity Urban
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the Environmental Research and Technical Innovation program, 2000-2006 Total budget: €32m
Project budget €1 2m over 4 years
Transport, Biodiversity, Urban sprawl
Inter-institutionalUCD (4 S h l 2 C ll )
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Project budget €1.2m over 4 years
Duration48 months from February 2006
UCD (4 Schools across 2 Colleges)NUI MaynoothTrinity College DublinERA Maptec Ltd. ect
Personnel5 PhD students, 1 Post-Doc, Project
manager, Director, 10+
OSNILocal authorities (Dublin city, South Dublin, Dun
Laoghare-Rathdown, Fingal, M th L th Kild Wi kl )
UEPacademic supervisors, modelling team
Meath, Louth, Kildare, Wicklow)
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• Working Papers
d dditi l i f ti il bl f
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• and additional information available from Downloads section
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• www.uep.ie
ect
UCD Earth Systems InstituteMeeting the Challenge of Climate Change Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change
Seminar Series
In collaboration with
Comhar Sustainable Development Council, Environmental Protection Agency, Forfás, Geological Survey of Ireland,
Marine Institute, Met Éireann, Sustainable Energy Ireland & Teagasc
Further details on the seminar series is available at www.ucd.ie/earth
A paper and podcast of this seminar will be available on the ESI website soon, please join the online ESI mailing list for such notifications
ESI email: [email protected]
UCD Earth Systems InstituteMeeting the Challenge of Climate Change Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change
Seminar Series
Next week...Seminar #21Next week...Seminar #21
Friday 22nd May 2009
Royal College of Physicians, 12.30pmRoyal College of Physicians, 12.30pm
Dr. Emma TeelinggUCD School of Biology & Environmental Science
Using evolution to understand the past and predict the future
Further details available at www.ucd.ie/earth