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TRANSCRIPT
16 August 2019
Lutz Grüten, Head of Investor RelationsJulia Bock, Senior Investor Relations Manager
K+S Group
UBS Roadshow London
1
K+S Group
K+S Group
Disclaimer
No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information or opinions contained in the Presentation or on its completeness, accuracy of fairness. No
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its respective directors, officers, employees, agents or
advisers as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in the Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of
them for any such information or opinions. In particular, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no
reliance should be placed on any projections, targets, ambitions, estimates or forecasts contained in this Presentation and nothing in this Presentation is or should be
relied on as a promise or representation as to the future.
This Presentation contains facts and forecasts that relate to the future development of the K+S Group and its companies. The forecasts are estimates that we have made
on the basis of all the information available to us at this moment in time. Should the assumptions underlying these forecasts prove not to be correct or should certain
risks – such as those referred to in the Annual Report – materialise, actual developments and events may deviate from current expectations. Given these risks,
uncertainties and other factors, recipients of this document are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forecasts.
This Presentation is subject to change. In particular, certain financial results presented herein are unaudited, and may still be undergoing review by the Company’s
accountants. The Company may not notify you of changes and disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements, in particular forward-looking statements, to
reflect future events or developments, save for the making of such disclosures as are required by the provisions of statue. Thus statements contained in this
Presentation should not be unduly relied upon and past events or performance should not be taken as a guarantee or indication of future events or performance.
This Presentation has been prepared for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, an invitation or a recommendation to purchase or sell securities
issued by K+S Aktiengesellschaft or any company of the K+S Group in any jurisdiction.
K+S Group 2
K+S Group
K+S at a Glance
IndustryAgriculture Consumers Communities
Group financials 2018
Revenues
€ 4.04 billionEBITDA
€ 606 millionEBITDA-Margin
15%Earnings after taxes, adj.
€ 85 million
Customer Segments
Revenues€ 1.74 billion
EBITDA€ 275 millionMargin 16%
Revenues€ 1.13 billion
EBITDA€ 226 millionMargin 20%
Revenues€ 0.46 billion
EBITDA€ 43 millionMargin 10%
Revenues€ 0.71 billion
EBITDA€ 122 millionMargin 17%
43%
28%
11%
18%
41%34%
7%18%
OU Europe+: Revenues: € 2.59 billion; EBITDA: € 443 million; Margin: 17%
OU Americas: Revenues: € 1.45 billion; EBITDA: € 222 million; Margin: 15%
Current Trading
4
K+S Group
K+S Group
EBITDA again with a nice improvement: +24%
Europe+: Price increase across all PMP products
Americas: Maintenance measures and elevated logistics costs showing impact on EBITDA especially in a seasonally low quarter
FCF plus €150m to €102m best Q2 FCF since 2011; supportive on our path to strengthen our balance sheet
Highlights Financials
€ million Q2/18 Q2/19 YoY
Revenues 812 879 +8%
t/o Europe+ 572 627 +10%
t/o Americas 239 251 +5%
D&A -92 -104 -13%
EBITDA 105 130 +24%
t/o Europe+ 100 128 +29%
t/o Americas 22 14 -38%
Adj. net profit -9 3 -
Adj. EPS (€) -0.05 0.01 -
Operating cash flow 59 193 -
Adj. FCF -49 102
CapEx 91 93 +2%
-
Net fin. debt/EBITDA (LTM) 4.6x 4.4x -
Q2 2019 at a glance
105
13047
-3 -1
-18
Q2/18 Price Volume/Mix
FX Costinflation,Others
Q2/19
EBITDA in €m
- General costinflation
+ Mainlyprices in Agriculture
Main effects:+ Volumes
Agriculture- Volumes
Industry andCommunities
K+S Group 5
K+S Group
Deeper dive into our customer segments
Consumers Communities
IndustryAgriculture
+48%
-71%
EBITDA
383
64
440
95
Revenues EBITDA
Q2/2018 Q2/2019
+15%
• Better prices• Increased volumes• General cost
inflation and inventory built-up
277
61
282
56
Revenues EBITDA
Q2/2018 Q2/2019
+2%
-8%
• Better prices• General cost inflation
103
7
109
9
Revenues EBITDA
Q2/2018 Q2/2019
+6%
+21%
• Better prices, especially for water softening
-2%
48
-11
47
-18
Q2/2018 Q2/2019
• Lower volumes in Q2
• … but YoY up in H1
Revenues
6
K+S Group
K+S Group
Pricing (Source: FMB)
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19
SOP Europe
MOP Brazil
H1/19:
Robust demand in Europe and Brazil, weather effects
postpone demand in North America, constant
deliveries on contracts in China and India, SE Asia
demand weaker due to palm oil price
However, MOP price momentum remains supportive (YoY)
Specialty prices were picking up but are still lagging
behind
K+S Agriculture average selling price:
FY/18: 254 €/t (FY/17: 241 €/t);
Q4/18: 268 €/t; H1/19: 277 €/t
Outlook:
FY global demand 2019 stable compared to record
demand in 2018 of a good 71mt KCl
Strong demand expected in Brazil in autumn season,
demand in China temporarily subdued due to MOP
import stop
Trading Update: Customer Segment Agriculture
MOP Europe
7
K+S Group
K+S Group
Trading Update: Customer Segments Industry and Consumers
Solid demand, gradually increasing
sales volumes
Logistic costs after inflation,
especially in North America, in 2018:
“new normal” for 2019
Consumers customer segment
showed first success in H1/19 to
pass on higher costs, especially for
logistics
2.47 2.52 2.572.74
2.44 2.47
0.48 0.41 0.420.50
0.48 0.40
Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Industry Consumers
Sales volumes (in mt)
YoY:Sigmundshall
volumes missing
8
K+S Group
K+S Group
Trading Update: Customer Segment Communities
Pricing trends in customer segment Communities
Mixed picture in our regions in winter
2018/19
Good business in US Mid-West and
Canada
Highly competitive US East Coast
Europe:
Q4: mild weather
Q1: average demand
In total, Q4 almost on and Q1 above
long-term average
Widely promising bidding season 2019
6.86
0.93 1.53
4.00
7.11
0.86
Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Sales volumes in customer segment Communities (in mt)
9
K+S Group
K+S Group
Our wastewater management makes us less vulnerable to droughts
54%
August 2018
37%
600k cbm
600k cbm
August 2019
up to1,000k
cbm
Capacity Utilization rate
August 2019: Approval received for an additional (temporary) underground wastewater storage capacity of up to 400k cbm.
Offsite disposal of saline wastewater by truck and railcar
Basin capacity andutilization¹(as of 14 Aug 19)
400k cbm
¹Basin capacities were at 500k cbm in 2018 , but adjusted for comparative purposes
~22%
K+S Group 10
K+S Group
Bethune: Product quality is improving
Quality improvement already in 2019 but somewhat lower production (~1.7mt). Customers will recognize this improvement early 2020.
Installation ofgrinder pumps in
July 2019
Preparation andinstallation of
cooling-, sievingand crushingequipment in
September 2019
Implementation in Q4/2019
11
K+S Group
K+S Group
EBITDA 2019: €730m to €830m (2018: €606m)
Free cash flow 2019: at least €+100m (2018: €-206m)
606
700-
850
730-
830
FY18 Price Volume/Mix
Others Costinflation
FY19guidance in
May
+ - CurrentFY19
guidance
EBITDA in €m
+ Bethune+ Absence of
droughteffect
- Roof stabilityNeuhof
- Average de-icing saltbusiness
+ Sigmundshall+ Shaping- FX+/- Others
+ ASP in CSAgriculturemoderatelyup
+ Supportiveproduct pricesin other CS
- Inflation returning: Higher personnel, energy, freight andmaterialcosts
High probability to have no weather-related standstills - even in the case of an extended drought !
More precise EBITDA and FCF guidance*)
+ Changedassumptionregardingthe EUR/USD exchange rate (1.15 vs. 1.20 EUR/USD)
- Bethune:Quality initiative causingextendedmaintenanceshutdown
- Temporaryslowdown in H2on the back ofChinese MOPimport stop
*) Assuming no weather related outage days
K+S Group 12
K+S Group
Deleveraging is making progress
8.1x
7.2x 7.3x
6.6x6.5x
5.6x
5.2x 5.3x
4.7x
4.4x
H1/17(LTM)
2017 2018 Q1/19(LTM)
Q2/19(LTM)
2019e 2020e
Net Debt/EBITDA (incl. Provisions) Net Financial Debt/EBITDA
Halved vs. H1/17
• NFD/EBITDA of 4.4x again down on FY/18 of 5.3x
• 2018 and H1/19 (LTM) still negatively affected by Werra outage days
• On the right track to halve our leverage by YE 2020 vs. H1/2017
13
K+S Group
K+S Group
2019 FULL-YEAR GUIDANCE substantiated; midpoint slightly increased
CASH CONVERSION AND LEVERAGE improved
WASTEWATER MANAGEMENT improved
BETHUNE RAMP-UP on track
OPERATING PERFORMANCE improved
Shaping 2030 Strategy
K+S Group 15
K+S Group
Tapping the full potential of our existing assets... establishing the most value-creating portfolio combination
Exploring new adjacent growth areas... pursuing growth by venturing into new markets where we can use our existing capabilities
Increasing the share of our specialties business... ensuring an overall stabilized performance and reducing our dependency on standard products and weather
'One Company' ... thinking and acting as 'One Company' and lifting synergies between our businesses
We will be the most customer-focused, independent minerals company and grow our EBITDA to €3bn in 2030 by ...
Our vision for 2030
IndustryAgriculture
ConsumersCommunities
K+S Group 16
K+S Group
Phase 2: Growth
203020202017
Phase 1: Transformation
Realize synergies
Advance corporate culture
Net financial debt/ halvedEBITDA vs. H1/2017
Synergies > €150m
EBITDA-Ambition €3bn
ROCE > 15%
Revenue growthbeyond 2030
> 4%
Increased share of specialties
Tapping the full potential of our existing assets
Exploring new adjacent growth areas
Shaping the organizationand focusing towards our clients
Reduce indebtedness
Investment grade ratingachieved in 2023
We will implement our strategy in two phases
Phase I
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K+S Group
K+S Group
SHAPING 2030
Lift synergies
Operations
Procurement
Supply Chain and Logistics
Commercial Excellence
SG&A Optimization
> €50m
Net synergies YE 2020 (vs. 2017)
> €30m
> €20m
> €20m
~ €30m
COO
Sponsor
CFO
COO
COO
CEO
∑ > €150m
Synergies: Breakdown by program
19
K+S Group
K+S Group
Shaping 2030 EBITDA impact
Costs Synergies > €150m
Total costs for synergy program: ~ €150m (end of 2020)
2018e 2019e 2020e
K+S Group 20
K+S Group
This NPV equals an EV per share of 25 EUR
Variation NPV change
MOP gran. Brazil +/- 10 USD/t +/- €200 million
“We create value for our stakeholders!”
Net Present Value (NPV) Bethune
Sen
siti
viti
es
NPV for Bethune EUR 4.8bn
21
K+S Group
K+S Group
Site costs (FOB) in comparison (2020)
* column width = production capability in million tonnesSource: CRU Report 2016, K+S
-30%
BU Potashw/o Bethune
(incl. Specialties)
Best-in-class
USD/t
K+S Bethune(in 2023)
K+S Zielitz(Purely MOP)
K+S Bethune*
The Bethune ramp-up to 2.86 million tons in 2023 (production capability) significantly improves K+S's competitive position.
Phase II
23
K+S Group
K+S Group
Implications for K+S
Arable land shrinking
Yield needs to be improved
Higher efficiency of fertilizationand irrigation needed
Plants have to be more stressresistent
Infrastructure needs to beimproved focus on renewable energy
Growing population, especiallyin Asia, needs more salt forvarious purposes
Today: 7.3bn
8.5bnGlobal population in 2030
Per decade
0.2Average global warming (ºC)
70% of water used for agriculture
40%of the population will suffer
from water shortage by 2030
2015: 3.0bn
5.4bnpeople will be
middle-class by 2030
Our strategy has incorporated important megatrends
24
K+S Group
K+S Group
Geo-expansion Fertilizer Industry
Africa
Asia
Increase of fertilizer specialties
Ramp of low cost commodities
Expand Pharma & Food portfolio
Chemical applications
Growth areas and ideas cover the full growth landscape
K+S Growth Landscape
Growth areas and ideas cover core and adjacent businesses
Financials
K+S Group 26
K+S Group
P&L
€ million Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 FY/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
Revenues 1,170 812 840 1,217 4,039 1,264 879
EBITDA 237 105 36 228 606 270 130
Margin 20% 13% 4% 19% 15% 21% 15%
Depreciation 90 92 94 103 379 99 104
Financial result -31 -25 -26 -30 -112 -17 -21
EBT, adjusted 116 -12 -84 95 115 154 5
Tax rate, adjusted 28% 25% 27% 25% 26% 30% 52%
Net income, adjusted 84 -9 -61 71 85 108 3
EPS, adjusted 0.44 -0.05 -0.32 0.38 0.45 0.56 0.01
K+S Group 27
K+S Group
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
€ million Q1/18 H1/18 9M/18 FY/18 Q1/19 H1/19
Operating cash flow 233 292 276 309 324 518
- Investing cash flow(pre sale/ purchase of securities)
-90 -198 -336 -515 -91 -183
Adjusted free cash flow 143 94 -60 -206 233 335
CapEx 63 154 278 443 73 166
Net financial debt 2,834 2,944 3,100 3,242 2,935 2,894
Net financial debt/ EBITDA (LTM) 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.3 4.6 4.4
Equity ratio 42% 43% 41% 41% 43% 42%
28
K+S Group
K+S Group
CapEx development 2015-2020
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e
BU Potash (ex Bethune)
Bethune
BU Salt
Complementary Activities
in m€
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030
30
K+S Group
K+S Group
Goal KPI 2018Target by
2030 at the latest
PEO
PLE
Health & Safety
Lost time incident rate (LTIR) 7.90
Vision 2030
Diversity & Inclusion
Employees’ favorable perception of inclusive work environment (percent)
68 (2015) >90
Human Rights
Sites covered by a human rights due diligence process (percent)
0 100
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030 – People
31
K+S Group
K+S Group
Goal KPI 2018 Target by2030 at the
latest
ENV
IRO
NM
ENT
Water
Deep-well injection of saline wastewater in Germany (m³ p.a.)
1.0 0 starting January
2022
Additional reduction of saline process water from potash production in Germany (m³ p.a.)
+400,000-500,000
excluding reduction by KCF facility and
end of production SI
Waste
Amount of residues used for other purposes than tailings piles or increased amount of raw material yield (million tons p.a.)
1.0 3
Additional area of tailings piles covered (ha) 5.9 155
Energy & Climate
Carbon footprint for power consumed (kg CO2/MWh) (percent)
-1.5 -20
Specific greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) in logistics (percent)
-2.0 -10
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030 – Environment
32
K+S Group
K+S Group
Goal KPI 2018Target by
2030 at the latest
BU
SIN
ESS
ETH
ICS
Sustainable Supply Chains
Critical suppliers aligned with the K+S Group Supplier Code of Conduct (SCoC) (percent)
14.7100
by end of 2025
Spend coverage of the K+S Group SCoC (percent) 29.4> 90
by end of 2025
Compliance & Anti-Corruption
All employees reached by communication measures and trained appropriately in compliance matters (percent)
71100
by end of 2019
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030 – Business Ethics
K+S Group 33
K+S Group
Housekeeping Items / Financial Calendar
Tax rate: ~30%
Financial result: ~€-120m
CapEx: ~€600m
D&A (incl. Bethune): €380m to €400m
Reconciliation (EBITDA): €-60m to €-70m
Additional information on Outlook FY 2019
Financial Calendar
Customer Segment Agriculture:Sales volume: 6.9-7.1mt (2018: 6.8mt) and ASP moderately up (2018: 254 €/t)
Customer Segment Communities:Sales volume: 12.5-13.0mt (2018: 13.3mt)
Kepler CFO Roadshow, Frankfurt 16 August 2019
UBS Roadshow, London 16 August 2019
Commerzbank Sector Conference, Frankfurt 27 August 2019
MainFirst CFO Roadshow, Helsinki, Copenhagen 28-30 August 2019
34
K+S Group
K+S Group
IR Contact Details
e-mail: [email protected]: www.k-plus-s.comIR-website: www.k-plus-s.com/ir
K+S AktiengesellschaftBertha-von-Suttner-Str. 734131 Kassel (Germany)
Janina RochellInvestor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1403Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Lutz GrütenHead of Investor Relations
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1460Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Christiane MartelRoadshow Management
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1100Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Alexander EngeInvestor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1885Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Julia Bock, CFASenior Investor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1009Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]